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Weekly Intelligence Notes #20-02 |
AFIO WIN #20-02 dated 20 May 2002
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) contain intelligence-related notes and commentaries produced, written or edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. The reports contain copyright material and may not be disseminated without permission of the producer/editor. Opinions expressed are those of the author(s) cited and/or the producer. The perspectives taken are one based on the US national security interests and a long professional view with roots in the WWII period.
NEXT National AFIO Luncheon for AFIO DC/MD/VA area
Speakers:
Robert Baer
CIA officer (Ret), author
[SEE NO EVIL The True Story of a Ground Soldier
in the CIA's War on Terrorism].
and Ronald Kessler
Best-selling author,
journalist
winner of sixteen journalism
awards
[THE BUREAU: The
Secret History of the FBI]
$27.00/person
TIME: Registration starts at 11:00 a.m.; CASH Bar 1100 - 1400; LUNCH 1230 - 1330
Where: The Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner
(Rte 123 & Rte 7)
1960 Chain Bridge Road
McLean, Virginia 22102
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$27.00 for Members and Guests. Seating Limited to 300 -- Sorry, but No Payments at Door.
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CONTENTS of this WIN
[HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents] [This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition recipients. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. If you use AOL, you would need AOL version 6.0 or higher to receive HTML messages, and have that feature turned on.]
SECTION I - Current Intelligence
Senator Graham on Intelligence
SECTION II - Context and Precedence
Allied Terrorist Intelligence Network
Poisoned Letter Kills Saudi Terrorist in Chechnya
SECTION III - Cyber Intelligence
SECTION IV - Books and Sources
New Defense Department Web Site On Terrorism
SECTION V - Letters and Announcements
Robert Gates to be President of Texas A&M
Assistance Request - Intelligence and Ethics Projects
Letter Request - Al Qaeda Research Help
Coast Guard Intelligence Director to Speak
SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CIA HOMELAND DEFENSE MISSION -- DCI George Tenet on 22 May announced the appointment of Winston P. Wiley to the newly created position of Associate Director of Central Intelligence (ADCI) for 'Homeland Security', effective 28 May 2002. Mr. Wiley's task is to oversee, orchestrate, and enhance the Intelligence Community's contribution to homeland defense.. He is a 35-year CIA veteran, the current Deputy Director for Intelligence (DDI), and a former Chief of the Counter-Terrorist Center. He holds degrees from American and Harvard universities.
One might note that, both symbolically and substantively, this appointment is significant in that it appears to be breaking old barriers -- CIA jurisdiction expanding to support domestic intelligence analysis (one assumes, not yet collection)- - justified by homeland defense. It complements the previous development of FBI personnel stationed in embassies all over the world. All to be applauded - perhaps very cautiously.
The DCI also named Ms. Jami Miscik to replace Mr. Wiley as DDI.. Ms. Miscik, who joined the CIA in 1983, has served with the National Security Council in the White House and in CIA's Directorate of Intelligence (DI). She holds degrees from Pepperdine and Denver universities. It is a coincidence, probably for the good, that the posts of National Security advisor and Senior intelligence Director of the NSC are also currently held by highly qualified women.
As a related item of interest, the NY Times reported that the individual appointed to succeed Cofer Black as chief of the Agency's Counter-Terrorist Center (see WIN#19), and whose name was withheld since he is still undercover -- was helpfully identified by the paper as "the first Hispanic man" to be chief of the Center, and formerly involved in Central America. Maybe one more clue and we'll all know who he is. Was this a leak to make a point of political correctness? It is obviously counter-productive in terms of the announced purpose -- but that's Washington.. Still leaks like a sieve - purposeful or illegal. (Jonkers) (CIA Press Release 22 May 02) (NYT 23 May 02 //J. Risen)
SENATOR GRAHAM ON INTELLIGENCE -- The chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Senator Bob Graham (D-FL), recently used a press interview to express several of his views on intelligence. The following subjects were included:
** "...we are always going to have substantial vulnerabilities to terrorism." Another terror attack on the US is a "near certainty..."
** Infiltrating terrorist groups will put more spies at greater risk. We are going to lose people in the effort.
** The US should slow down plans to attack Iraq but speed up efforts against terrorist groups.
** Saddam Hussein is not on the verge of developing weapons of mass destruction, which gives time to allow diplomacy to try again and "at least we'll be able to say to the world that we took every possible step."
** Al Qaeda is not the most effective terrorist group in the world. "The people who are briefing us say Hezbollah is the A-team of terrorism.. They say they are the most proficient and most violent."
** The overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan will be the easiest of a long series of battles against terrorism worldwide.
** The FBI told him there are fewer than 10 American officials at Guant�namo Bay who have the language and interrogation skills to obtain information from the detainees.
** The latest intelligence budget will bring the number of spies to double what it was five years ago.
** The joint House-Senate intelligence committee hearings on the 9/11 attacks will focus on the failure to respond to changes in the threats facing the US after 1991.
In contrast to the usual pronouncements from the Hill, the Senator's comments appeared to be non-polemic and were reported in the same fashion. (HARVEY) (USA Today 14 May '02, pg.. 8 // K. Kiely)
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
AFGHANISTAN OPSEC -- British and United States commanders have ordered all 4,000 troops at the Bagram airbase to destroy any material that identifies friends and families, who might be put at risk of terrorist threats. Intelligence officers believe that many Afghans in the base area, located north of Kabul, are members of al-Qaeda or the Taliban, and are trying to gain information about the troops. Hundreds of Afghans are carrying out cleaning and repair duties on the base. The history of foreign invaders and occupiers in Afghanistan is being studied by our leaders and kept in mind, to avoid sharing their fate in this swamp. (Jonkers) (PJK)
KASHMIR WAR WARNING -- A moderate Kashmiri separatist leader was assassinated on May 21st in the city of Shrinagar. The governments of India and Pakistan immediately charged each other with the misdeed, bringing the already tense region a few steps closer to war. The killing occurred on the fifth straight day of fierce artillery fire between the armies of both nations, the world's two newest nuclear powers. A million soldiers face each other on maximum alert along a 1,800-mile border. Villages on both sides are being destroyed in the fury.
India and Pakistan were carved from the British Empire in 1947. Jammu and Kashmir's fate were to be determined by plebiscite, but India reneged. Although mostly populated by Muslims, India deems it an area of critical geopolitical importance, a vital watershed, and incidentally, a highland garden spot. After three wars the former princely state was divided along a cease-fire line, with India retaining about two-thirds. Without a political solution, Kashmiris began a violent independence movement in the late 1980's. Pakistan supplied this insurrection with weapons. India suppressed the rebellion with so stern a hand that it further alienated much of the Kashmiri population. More than 35,000 people have died during the fighting of the past 13 years.
The US is heavily engaged in diplomatic efforts to restrain India and Pakistan in a conflict that could become a local nuclear war. As a matter of precedence, in 1999 tensions reached a similar fever pitch and there was intelligence that Pakistan was preparing its nuclear launch capability (See Section IV below). At present there is not only the nuclear danger, but the redeployment of Pakistan's army has decreased its capability against the Al-Qaeda forces along the Afghan border. One assumes that US intelligence has the nuclear war threat scenario as a high priority coverage -- in addition to the top anti-terrorist priorities.. (Jonkers) (NYTimes 22 May02 //B. Bearak)
ALLIED TERRORIST INTELLIGENCE NETWORK -- The U.S. is setting up a global network with non-NATO allies for sharing intelligence in its war on terrorism. The system will be ``at least equal to or greater than'' that used by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. ``The NATO system links 350 sites, including Bosnia, where NATO maintains a seven-year-old peacekeeping effort. The disclosure underscores the President's view of the war on terrorism as a sustained multi-year effort that requires coordinating intelligence with new-found partners such as Sudan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Georgia and Yemen. Lieutenant General Gregory Newbold, Joint Chiefs of Staff (J-3), noted that since 9/11 the US has become "privy to shared information that's coming from a broad coalition -- in surprising range and depth that's absolutely dramatic.'' (Jonkers) (Credit Suisse & Aviation Wk// 15 May Conf // Anteon Corp//J. Kampf//T. Capaccio)
POISONED LETTER KILLS SAUDI TERRORIST IN CHECHNYA -- He was one of Russia's most dangerous enemies, a terrorist renowned for cunning and savagery who rarely left his remote mountain hideout and was always surrounded by six bodyguards. To the secret services, his assassination seemed impossible � until they thought of sending him a message. The family of Khattab, a Saudi exile who became the most notorious rebel leader in Chechnya, has now confirmed that he died on March 20 after handling a letter contaminated with a deadly poison. (The Sunday Times 05/19/02 /// M. Franchetti) ( PJK)
SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE
CELL PHONE DIRECTION-FINDING - -Mailbox bomb suspect Luke Helder made
a crucial mistake while on the run: He turned on his cell phone. As soon as he
activated it, FBI agents quickly triangulated his position between two rural
towns and had him in handcuffs within an hour. The cell phone signal � like a
locator beacon � was a dead giveaway. Comment: The stuff we print! Now we all
know, including the terrorists. (Jonkers) (Levine's Newbits, 9 May 02)
http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/2002/05/08/bomb-phone.htm
HOMELAND SECURITY?? -- In the current security-conscious environment, many people seem willingto sacrifice their most fundamental democraticrights to support anything that is promoted as good for homeland security. In many cases, an unwillingness to do so is perceived as being unpatriotic. (Levine 9 May -02) http://online.securityfocus.com/columnists/80
INFORMATION
DESTRUCTION
-- We're not quite as good at destruction as we think we are. Earlier this year,
as the Enron debacle began to unfold, the company's accounting firm revealed
that its employees had destroyed a "significant but undetermined number" of
Enron-related documents, either by shredding paper files or by deleting
electronic ones. How much destruction had in fact been achieved remained
uncertain. Computer sleuths moved in quickly, looking for "fingerprints" of the
missing electronic transmissions on hard drives and backup tapes; it seems
likely that many of the electronic documents have not been fully erased and will
be recovered.(Levine 05/09)
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2002/05/murphy.htm
SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES
NEW DEFENSE DEPARTMENT WEB SITE ON TERRORISM -- DoD's unconventional war against terrorism has spawned an unconventional Web site http://www.defendamerica.mil/. The new site offers the latest news, photographs, transcripts and other information about the U.S.-led global effort against terrorism. The site also provides unclassified information on military aircraft and equipment. A section called "Database" offers technical information about a wide range of military systems and equipment. (Jonkers) (Am Forces Press Service 13 May 02 //L. Kozaryn)
FOR THEIR EYES ONLY -- A study by Bruce O. Riedel, University of Pennsylvania Center for the Advanced Study of India, 2002, entitled 'American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House,' includes dramatic new information that nuclear war nearly erupted between Pakistan and India in 1999. Former National Security Council official Riedel provides a fascinating account of a July 4, 1999 meeting between President Clinton and Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif that is rich with intelligence data and diplomatic intrigue.
It has a direct relevance to the current Kashmir crisis.
It may be noted that the study is so rich that it almost certainly contains information that would be normally inaccessible to the public for some time to come. The problem of government officials appropriating government information for their own use was discussed at length in a 1992 report entitled "For Their Eyes Only: How Presidential Appointees Treat Public Documents as Personal Property," by investigative journalist Steve Weinberg. That study, which is dated but still interesting, is available for purchase from the Center for Public Integrity -- see http://store.publicintegrity.org/store/Detail.asp?Product_ID=0123
Mr. Riedel's study, published this week, is posted here: http://www.sas...upenn.edu/casi/reports/RiedelPaper051302..htm
See also "Report: India, Pakistan Were Near Nuclear War in '99" by Alan Sipress and Thomas E. Ricks in the May 15 Washington Post at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17398-2002May14.html
(Jonkers) (Secrecy News No.44, May 17, 2002 / / S. Aftergood)
SECTION V - LETTERS AND ANNOUNCEMENTS
ROBERT GATES TO BE PRESIDENT of TEXAS A&M -- The University regents on 11 May passed over Texas' senior U.S. senator, Phil Gramm, and picked a former Central Intelligence Agency director as the university's president-to-be. The regents designated Robert Gates, 58, who led the CIA from 1991 to 1993, as the only finalist for the job. Under Texas law, the university now has to wait 21 days before officially offering Mr. Gates the job. He has declared himself to be "an agent of change," presumably in terms of the university's academic standards and fund-raising. The decision will cool speculation in Austin and Washington that the Republicans might gain a distinct advantage if Mr. Gramm had gotten the job and decided to begin his new assignment earlier than January. (WashTimes 12 May02)
ASSISTANCE REQUEST -- INTELLIGENCE AND ETHICS PROJECT -- William Casebeer, Ph.D., Air Force intelligence officer (Major, USAF), Assistant Professor, Dept of Philosophy, Air Force Academy, is working on a textbook for professionals designed to be a primer on the ethical aspects of intelligence operations. Recommendations on source texts and articles are solicited. Part of the text will consist of case studies in intelligence ethics. "If anyone has any stories or experiences they would care to share regarding ethical tensions felt while collecting, analyzing, and distributing intelligence, this would help me flesh out that section realistically. The experiences can range from the mundane to extraordinary, as the text will cover the broad range of moral issues that arise for intelligence practitioners." E-mail William.casebeer@usafa.af.mil, or address letters to Major William D. Casebeer, HQ USAFA/DFPY, 2354 Fairchild Drive Suite 1A10, US Air Force Academy, CO 80840.
LETTER REQUEST AL QAEDA RESEARCH HELP -- Larry S. writes -- I have been helping, by e-mail, an Australian police officer working on his Ph.D. He plans to visit Washington in September. I would like to put him in touch with current or former members of the US law enforcement and intelligence communities who are prepared to discuss matters relating to al Qaeda. The Australian officer writes "Specifically I would like to explore with these people the function of intelligence within al Qaeda. The purpose of these inquiries is to contribute to my PhD, and also to enhance my organization's (Victoria Police Force) overall knowledge and understanding of this terrorist group." Not vetted by AFIO, but Larry S. is highly reputable former CI officer and AFIO member. Contact afio@afio.com
COAST GUARD INTELLIGENCE DIRECTOR TO SPEAK -- The Potomac Chapter, NMIA, will meet Thursday, June 6, at the Bolling AFB Enlisted Club. Guest speaker at the noon luncheon will be Frances Fragos-Townsend, the U.S. Coast Guard's Director of Intelligence. She will speak on "New Challenges for Coast Guard Intelligence." For reservations, e-mail ltugman@mindspring.com, or visit the web page at http://www.intelweb.org/potomac by not later than Tuesday, June 4. (If you don't already have authorized access to Bolling AFB, reservations are needed NLT June 2.) Specify choice of breast of chicken dinner or lite fare of salad and vegetarian lasagna. Price is $13 for members; $15 for others, payable at the door.
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