AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #19-02 13 May 2002

Weekly Intelligence Notes #19-02
13 May 2002

AFIO WIN #19-02 dated 13 May 2002

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) contain intelligence-related notes and commentaries produced, written or edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. The reports contain copyright material and may not be disseminated without permission of the producer/editor. Opinions expressed are those of the author(s) cited and/or the producer. The perspectives taken are one based on the US national security interests and a long professional view with roots in the WWII period.

NEXT National AFIO Luncheon for AFIO DC/MD/VA area

Monday, 29 July 2002

Speakers:

Robert Baer
CIA officer (Ret), author
[SEE NO EVIL The True Story of a Ground Soldier
in the CIA's War on Terrorism]
and
Ronald Kessler
Best-selling author, journalist
winner of sixteen journalism awards
[THE BUREAU: The Secret History of the FBI]

$27.00/person

TIME: Registration starts at 11:00 a.m.; CASH Bar 1100 - 1400; LUNCH 1230 - 1330

Where: The Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner
(Rte 123 & Rte 7)
1960 Chain Bridge Road
McLean, Virginia 22102
Generous Free Parking Available

RESERVE / PAY: Credit Card [Visa, MC, or AMEX] Reservations to AFIO at afio@afio.com or via fax at 703 991-1278
Indicate names of guests, if any, for badges. Provide full number, expiration date, and billing address. Reservations and Payment may be phoned in to
703 790-0320. Or mailed to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave #303A, McLean, VA 22101.
$27.00 for Members and Guests. Seating Limited to 300 -- Sorry, but No Payments at Door.

Early registration is recommended to avoid disappointment.

CONTENTS of this WIN

[HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents] [This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition recipients. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. If you use AOL, you would need AOL version 6.0 or higher to receive HTML messages.]

SECTION I - Current Intelligence

President Bush Berlin Trip - Threat Warning

Senate Increases Intelligence Spending

CIA Counter-Terrorist Center Chief Moves On

Britain Names Future MI-5 Director

SECTION II - Context and Precedence

Politics and 9-11 -- Security or Scapegoats?

US - Russia Nuclear Weapon Treaty

Russia Regional Anti-Terrorism Pact

SECTION III - Cyber Intelligence

INS to use Internet for Tracking Foreign Students

Passport Tracking System and Devices Requirement

New Cyber Defense Study Project

New Cyber Crime Institute

SECTION IV - Books and Sources

National Security Archive Update on Cuba

SECTION V - Letters and Announcements

Report on AFIO National Symposium on Terrorism and Business

AFIO National Luncheon - Richard Perle and Bob Baer

Letter - On Nuclear Safety

In Memoriam - Douglas Pike

SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

PRESIDENT BUSH BERLIN TRIP - THREAT WARNING -- Militant and chaotic demonstrators who are "willing to use violence," have called for a massive anti-Bush rally when the US President is to visit Berlin on May 22-23. The protests will be against globalization, against the deployment of U.S. troops in Afghanistan and against the U.S. environmental policies. The Governing Mayor of Berlin, Klaus Woworeit ("I am glad to report that I am gay!") said in a speech that security forces in the nation's capital will be on maximum alert for the President's visit. An 10,000 additional police officers are being moved into Berlin from all 16 German Federal states.

Berlin is governed by an SPD (Social Democrat) - PDS (neo-communist) coalition cabinet. After the fall of East Germany in 1989/90 the PDS arose from the ashes of the communist party (SED) that had ruled East Germany. A PDS "appeal and warning" to the U.S. President said "War is not a means of fighting terrorism, war is terrorism , too! With the war in Afghanistan and the deployment of forces against Iraq you are starting a conflagration." Further, Berlin's senator for internal affairs and security did not rule out that President Bush "...could be personally attacked". There are voices in Berlin suggesting the president should cancel his trip to Berlin and go directly to Moscow, his real destination. Warning received. (Jonkers) (Global iNet News/Berlin 17 May02 //D. Peters)

SENATE INCREASES INTELLIGENCE SPENDING -- The Senate intelligence committee last week approved President Bush's budget request for Fiscal Year 2003 (which starts in October 2002) , that will significantly increase the total amount spent by the Pentagon, CIA and other intelligence agencies. The Budget numbers are not officially released, but congressional and administration sources reportedly indicated that the total now approximates $35 Billion. That would represent an increase of $2 billion to $3 billion over this year, and comes on top of $1 billion in additional money approved by Congress shortly after 9/11. Some key provisions include:

(1) A major increase is proposed for NSA -- nearly $1 billion to continue modernizing its computerized analytical systems.

(2) Nearly $500 million reportedly goes to CIA to continue expanding its "human intelligence" operations and analytical strength.

(3) The bill also puts a priority on developing and buying satellite and analytical equipment to detect the development of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. These so-called MASINT capabilities -- for Measurements And Signatures Intelligence -- involve the ability to detect traces of chemicals (emitted from smokestacks, for example) that could indicate the presence of substances used in the production of weapons of mass destruction. The Central MASINT Office operates under the purview of DIA, but the NRO and NIMA will also be involved in this program and receive part of the funding.

(4) The Senate panel's report suggests that the legal division between foreign and domestic intelligence-sharing and surveillance may continue to narrow as the CIA and domestic law enforcement agencies seek ways to better track terrorist networks.

(5) Several measures in the bill also seek to make it easier to circulate information among intelligence agencies. A newly -formed Terrorist Identification Classification System, which is operated by the CIA, would catalogue and store information on known or suspect terrorist groups or individuals and be easily retrievable by appropriate agencies.

(6) The bill also envisions the possibility that reconnaissance satellites may be used to look down on suspected terrorist activities in the United States -- which currently requires a special waiver. It requires the CIA director to detail the changes necessary to lift or streamline the prohibitions on domestic intelligence collection by satellite reconnaissance .

(6) The bill would also give the CIA primary jurisdiction over the newly created Foreign Terrorist Asset Tracking Center, which is currently under the Treasury Department. It would require new reporting on foreign companies involved in proliferation of weapons of mass destruction that raise money in U.S. capital markets

(7) In what could be the first indication of a move to give the DCI more control over intelligence operations, the panel asked the director to set "common standards and qualifications for individuals performing intelligence functions throughout the [intelligence] community." The committee, the report noted, is interested "in ensuring that the director vigorously exercise his authorities and prerogatives as head of the intelligence community." Currently the Pentagon has predominant control over many of its intelligence operations.

The new money illustrates the reversal of fortunes for the intelligence agencies over the last eight months, as the country seeks to detect and destroy terrorist networks and to prevent new attacks. The largest part of the budget remains under the control of the Defense Department, but the new money also suggests the growing confidence Congress and Bush have placed in CIA Director George J. Tenet.

The House intelligence committee has yet to produce its intelligence authorization bill. (Jonkers/Harvey) (WashPost 15May02, p.1 // W. Pincus &D. Priest) ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17294-2002May14.html )

CIA COUNTER-TERRORIST CENTER CHIEF MOVES ON -- The Counter Terrorist Center at CIA includes CIA analysts and operations officers as well as FBI agents & others, working as a team. It was announced that Cofer Black, chief of the CT Center, has been reassigned. Cofer Black formerly was an undercover officer and played a role in France's capture of Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, commonly known as Carlos the Jackal, once the world's most famous terrorist. Black's new assignment will not be further identified, nor will the identity of his replacement, also a CIA undercover officer. Procedures have changed since 9/11. (Jonkers) (NYT/AP 17 May 02)

BRITAIN NAMES FUTURE MI-5 DIRECTOR -- Ms. Eliza Manningham-Buller, the current Deputy Director General of the British Security Service (MI 5) was named as the prospective head of MI 5, to be effective next October. The current MI 5 chief, Sir Stephen Lander , will take another government post. Lander's predecessor, Dame Stella Rimington, who headed the service between 1992 and 1996, was the first woman to hold the post. She also was the first MI 5 chief whose name was made public. The UK government officially acknowledged the existence of MI5 itself only in 1989. As an aside, Rimington became the model for Dame Judy Dench's female spymaster 'M' in recent James Bond movies.

Ms. Manningham-Buller, 53, is said to be a counter-terrorism expert . She gained practical experience in counter-terrorism in the fight against the Irish Republican Army's terrorism. She was a senior liaison officer with the CIA during the Gulf War, and was among the senior British intelligence officers who flew to Washington the day after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. A Home Office statement listed Ms Manningham-Buller's interests as "reading, music, crosswords and history."

One trusts that this appointment is not primarily conforming to prevailing tenets of political correctness but is based on professionalism and merit as well as effective political access, clout and credibility. (Jonkers) (AP London, 17 April 02)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

POLITICS AND 9-11 -- SECURITY OR SCAPEGOATS? -- Among the thousands of reports that have sloshed around the bureaucracies every day for the past years, containing terrorism conjectures, speculations, studies and generalized threat possibilities, there have been reports that airplanes might be hijacked by terrorists, as one choice among a range of possible terrorist attack methods. For example a psychological and sociological evaluation of terrorism published in 1999 by the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress, contains this sentence -- "Suicide bomber(s) belonging to al-Qaida's Martyrdom Battalion could crash-land an aircraft packed with high explosives (C-4 and semtex) into the Pentagon, the headquarters of the Central Intelligence Agency or the White House," The report proposed this possibility of hijacking as one of a range of possible retribution attacks that al-Qaida might launch in revenge for the 1998 U.S. assault on bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan.

In the end, the spectrum of possible terrorist threats and acts became so large as to become unfocused. Said Dr. John Gannon, then CIA Deputy Director for Intelligence (analysis) "It became such a rich threat environment that it was almost too much for Congress and the administration to absorb... They couldn't prioritize what was the most significant threat." In spite of such shortcomings, credible reports with SPECIFICS as to how, when and where the deed was to be performed, providing a basis for immediate ACTIONABLE preventive responses in the pre 9/11 environment, have not been found and made public. Some damaging material, such as a smart FBI agent's report drawing attention to a number of Middle Eastern men taking flying lessons, a report which was lost in the FBI bureaucracy, provides grounds for solid criticism. It appears, however, that Government had plans by early September to respond to the range of contingencies, pushed by a president impatient for action and by dedicated professionals -- except that they were preempted by the 9/11 attack.

Now the search is on for improvements and corrections, but it has seemingly degenerated into a chase for culprits, in a political and media frenzy involving President Bush himself, similar to those we have witnessed before against Presidents Nixon, Reagan and Clinton. Conspiracy theorists infer dark theories about President Bush -- did he not want a war? Did he not need a "Pearl Harbor-like event?" We frequently inhabit an "Alice in Wonderland" political and media environment -- and the attacks on the President are clearly in that category and totally unworthy.

The noise and furor probably serve a purpose, however, relieving the pressure of popular frustration with 9/11 and the continuing terrorist threat, highlighting our loss of control over our borders and illegal immigrants, our inadequate protection of key public assets and transportation means, our bureaucratic imperfections in the Intelligence Community and other Federal agencies, and our inadequate homeland security organization. Measures have been taken since 9/11 to correct much of what needs to be corrected -- but the public theater must play itself out. The Intelligence Community, including CIA and the FBI, will take their licks in the media, some deservedly, and corrections are indeed needed -- and not necessarily by further increasing the size of the bureaucracies. But to believe that the President and the Executive Department gave terrorists a free hand to attack Americans is a paranoid lunacy. (Jonkers) (AP 17May02; WPost 16May02 p.1 & other media reports)

US-RUSSIA NUCLEAR WEAPON TREATY -- This week in Moscow Presidents Bush and Putin will sign a warhead limitation treaty to cut strategic nuclear warhead arsenals by 2/3rds, to around 2,000 each, over the next ten years. When the band stops playing and all the fuzzy math is done, however, each nation could still deploy some 9,000 nuclear warheads at the end of the period -- - if the so-called 'tactical' nukes, and those in storage (ready with some small time delay for the "responsive force") are included. The treaty may be canceled on three months notice, although this hardly seems necessary. It does not diminish US (or Russia's) freedom of action in nuclear weaponry.

DoD's Nuclear Posture Review released in January 2002 states: "Delivery systems will not be retired following initial reduction and downloaded warheads will be retained as needed to the responsive force....The responsive force retains the option for leadership to increase the number of operationally deployed forces in proportion to the severity of an evolving crisis." The Bush-Putin agreement also does not prevent development of a new generation of nuclear weapons. Again, the Nuclear Posture Review states that the US should develop new types of low-yield nuclear bombs to penetrate and collapse targets (e.g. bunkers) buried deep underground. To this end the Energy Department is reestablishing concept teams at each of the National Laboratories and in Washington. The prospect for a nuclear war is alive and well.

Both the US and Russia have found reasons for signing this document. It appears to be a largely a gesture symbolic of closer relations and interests in the common fight against terrorism and nuclear proliferation - and that the Cold War is over. (Jonkers) (WPost 19 May 02, p. B5)

RUSSIA REGIONAL ANTI-TERRORISM PACT -- Defense ministers from Russia, China and three central Asian nations, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikstan, have agreed to collaborate and coordinate their efforts to combat terrorism, extremism and separatist movements in the region. The countries, which formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization last year to discuss security issues, all face internal extremist, terrorist or separatist movements. (Jonkers) (NYTimes 16 May02 //M. Wines)

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

INS TO USE INTERNET FOR TRACKING FOREIGN STUDENTS -- Attorney General John Ashcroft announced an internet-based system to track hundreds of thousands of foreign students, saying it will allow the United States to "gain a measure of assurance that the students who are visiting our country are who they purport to be . . .We do not currently have a system that efficiently verifies if a student is in fact studying at an institution." (Levine 5/14)

http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/2002/05/10/ins-internet.htm

http://www.newsbytes.com/news/02/176506.html

http://zdnet.com.com/2110-1105-909484.html

PASSPORT TRACKING SYSTEM AND DEVICES REQUIREMENT -- Each year, about 100,000 U.S. passports are reported lost or stolen. And an estimated foreign 100,000 passports, issued by countries whose citizens don't need a visa to visit the United States, have also been stolen in recent years. The problem isn't a minor one. At least one of the September 11 hijackers is believed to have entered the United States with a stolen passport. Three of the terrorists had reported their passports stolen so they could get clean ones that didn't show their travel histories. What to do? http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0502/051002nj2.htm

NEW CYBER DEFENSE STUDY PROJECT -- George Mason University will launch a $6.5 million project to help sort out the myriad legal, technical and policy challenges involved in reinforcing the nation's most vital computer systems against cyber attacks. The Critical Infrastructure Protection Project will be housed at the George Mason School of Law in Arlington, Virginia. (Levine 5/14) http://www.newsbytes.com/news/02/176552.html

http://online.securityfocus.com/news/410

NEW CYBER CRIME INSTITUTE -- The University of Texas at Dallas is developing a new cyber crime institute in the heart of the Telecom Corridor. The Digital Forensics and Security Institute will offer training for law enforcement agents and, eventually, bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees. Andrew Blanchard, senior associate dean of the Erik Jonsson School of Engineering and Computer Science, said the university wanted the program to be close to corporations that are inventing, manufacturing and using computer technology.

( http://www.dallasnews.com/localnews/city/richardson/stories/050502dnriccybercrime.4e619.html )

SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

NATIONAL SECURITY ARCHIVE UPDATE ON CUBA -- On 15 May the National Security Archive at George Washington University posted on the Web a declassified Presidential Directive, signed by Jimmy Carter, which stated: “I have concluded that we should attempt to achieve normalization of our relations with Cuba.” The directive, dated March 15, 1977, shortly after Carter took office, is believed to represent the only time a President has ordered normalization of U.S. relations with Castro’s Cuba to be an explicit foreign policy goal of the United States.
On May 12, 2002, Mr. Carter became the first U.S. President, current or former, to visit Cuba since Castro’s revolution in 1959. His five-day visit unofficially continues a dialogue that was officially started with the distribution of this two-page document, Presidential Directive/NSC-6, in 1977. President Carter’s objective was “set in motion a process which will lead to the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba.” This eventually was aborted over Cold War issues, such as Cuba’s involvement in Africa. In recent years the question of how best to deal with Cuba to foster democracy and capitalism has been up for political debate, but domestic partisan election considerations and lobbies are still the dominant policy drivers -- as in many other foreign policy areas. (Jonkers) (NS Archive Update 15 May 2002) http://www.nsarchive.org/news/20020515 (courtesy Wayne Livermore)

SECTION V - LETTERS & ANNOUNCEMENTS

AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM -- The recent AFIO Symposium on Terrorism and Business was another success, both in terms of the excellence of the program and the number and quality of the attendees. Feedback has been terrific. All compliments to volunteer Symposium Chairman Tom Spencer, Esq. and his co-chairman, Ted Shackley - both members of the AFIO Board of Directors.

NEXT: the AFIO National Symposium and Convention, scheduled for 1 and 2 November 2002 in McLean, Virginia. Mark your calendars - we are planning another super event.

AFIO NATIONAL LUNCHEON -- Holiday Inn, Tysons Corner, Virginia, 29 July 2002 (10:30 a.m. - 2 p.m.), featuring Robert Baer, author of [SEE NO EVIL The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism].at 11 a.m., and Ronald Kessler, author of THE BUREAU: The Secret History of the FBI. Register Soonest - space limited - see information at top of this WIN. Further details here.

LETTER - Joe Y writes on the recent issue of Intelligencer -- on NUCLEAR SAFETY -- "An outstanding issue. Chock full of good stuff. Minor comment on article "Of This and That". On page 2 the author states that few considered use of civil passenger planes as enormously destructive, building destroying missiles. While generally true I wish to point out that by the mid-seventies, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was actively assessing the possible damage which might result by crashing a 707 into a Nuclear Power plant. In subsequent years, the agency redid the assessment considering a 747. Plant safety features were designed accordingly. Nuclear Threat Assessment is an ongoing and integral part of agency focus. To ensure that power plants and fuel production facilities and the transportation between them would remain adequately protected, the NRC developed a Design Basis Threat(DBT) which facilities must design against for successful safeguards. Defense in depth is stressed. The threat examines all terrorist actions worldwide continually to assure that the Design Basis Threat remains valid. Facilities are required to exercise with the DBT in mind to demonstrate their capability to withstand such threats. While the specifics of the DBT are classified, it is characterized in terms of number of aggressors, training, armament, vehicles etc etc. Use of truck bombs, hang -gliders, ultra-lites, water craft and amount and types of explosives are also defined. In addition, close ties are maintained with all the intelligence community as well as world-wide sources to ensure prompt alert and notification, and contact with appropriate additional response forces as needed." (Joe Y)

IN MEMORIAM -- Douglas Pike, 77, a veteran of the Army Signal Corps in WWII, retired Foreign Service Officer, university professor, and a leading historian and author on the Vietnam war, died 13 May in Lubbock, Texas. During the Vietnam War he worked for USIA involved in psychological warfare ( as did this editor) supporting the Chieu Hoi program. He collected communist documents, interviewed prisoners, and studied the Tet offensive, including the murder of thousands of civilians in Hue (overlooked by US media propaganda). His books included "Vietcong: The Organization and Techniques of the National Liberation Front of South Vietnam," and "War, Peace and the Vietcong," and later, in the eighties, "PAVN: People's Army of Vietnam." His extensive personal library, including both US government and North Vietnamese documents, have been donated to Texas Tech University's Vietnam Center. Doug Pike based his analyses, to the extent humanly possible, on historical and empirical evidence rather then on political, cultural or ideological preconceptions. In this he exemplified the needed standard for both psychological warfare and intelligence analysis. (Jonkers)

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