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Weekly Intelligence Notes #13-02 |
WIN #13-02, dated 1 April 2002
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) contain intelligence-related notes and commentaries produced, written or edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. The reports contain copyright material and may not be disseminated without permission of the producer/editor. Opinions expressed are those of the author(s) cited and/or the producer. The perspectives taken are one based on the US national security interests and a long professional view with roots in the WWII period.
"If liberty means anything at all,
it means the
right to tell people
what they do not want to hear"
-- George Orwell
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SECTION I - Current Intelligence
SECTION II - Context and Precedence
Intelligence for Operation Anaconda
SECTION III - Cyber Intelligence
Carnivore / DCS 1000 Court Judgment
New Web Cameras Allow Spying by Subscription
Dutch Use Eye-Scan Security Technology
SECTION IV - Books and Sources
SECTION V - Letters and Announcements
AFIO Business Intelligence Symposium - 16 May 02 Tyson's Corner VA
AFIO National Luncheon Program - Clapper / Richelson
OSS Conference - 6 May 02 Washington DC
JOBS: Terrorism Threat Analysts Needed
SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
FBI SPECIAL COMMISSION REPORT -- After a 13-month investigation, the Special Commission to investigate FBI security practices (in the wake of Robert Hanssen's spying), headed by former CIA and FBI director William H. Webster, issued a 107-page report on 4 April 2002 that was sharply critical. "Simply put, security is not as valued within the Bureau as it is in other agencies."
The report documents extensive FBI technology and management problems that led to internal security breakdowns. It concludes that FBI executives gave low priority to security matters, and that the bureau was using outdated computers, networks and encryption standards. Security training was almost non-existent, and security work was usually assigned to agents as an additional duty. The report takes note, however, of the internal contradiction of missions within the FBI, between law enforcement (until recently a principal mission), which requires wide sharing of information to aid investigations, and (counter) intelligence, which demands compartmentalization of material. "The two will never fully co-exist in the Bureau unless security programs receive the commitment and respect the FBI gives criminal investigations." That is a key sentence.
The report, delivered to Attorney General John Ashcroft, states that while FBI Director Robert S. Mueller has implemented some needed reforms, "senior management has not fully embraced the changes necessary to bring Bureau security programs up to par with the rest of the intelligence community." The report calls for a security office that will centralize security matters in one place.
Numerous publicly known details about the Hanssen affair are recounted, including the scope of the classified material he handed over. The report notes a number of instances where warning flags about Hanssen should have been raised, but did not result in action. Judge Webster, who headed the FBI during part of Hanssen's activities, said in an interview that he believed Hanssen's espionage activities were fueled by money "plus anger," which came from his not receiving the recognition and advancement he believed he deserved. Hanssen himself told the commission that "he did not want to be a devastating spy. I wanted to get a little money and to get out." Money or anger, "Betrayal is the saddest word in the English language." -- Robert Frost. There is no justification for treason or betrayal. (Jonkers) (WashPost 5April02 p. 01, D. Eggen & W. Pincus) (WashTimes 5 April02, p. A3 //J. Seper)
CIA NIE ON SAUDI ARABIA -- A classified 25-page National Intelligence Estimate by the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence warns of potential instability in Saudi Arabia. It reviews the internal and external threats against the kingdom as well as the future of Riyad's ties with Washington.
One issue reportedly discussed is the Saudi succession. The senior members of the royal family range from ages 75 to 80.
Another concern raised is the influence of the clergy on the Saudi regime. The NIE allegedly takes the view that the clergy are the main pillar of legitimacy for the regime. The result has been the isolation of the royal family from an increasingly modern Saudi middle class, which in recent years has been hard hit by the huge Saudi budget deficits that stem from low oil prices. The new class of merchants have also privately complained of endemic corruption by the 30,000-member royal family, headed by 3,000 princes.
"The House of Saud is depicted as `the boy in the bubble,''' a U.S. intelligence source quoted by the Boston Globe said. "What that means is the kingdom is too isolated and too coddled. It has become an entity that requires insulation from the biogens in its environment because if it were exposed to them it would become deathly ill." (MER 3April 02 < MER@MiddleEast.Org > )(courtesy Carl G. )
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT
ISRAEL SITREP -- US politicians recently again made reference to pursuing the 'Tenet Plan,' previously put forth by DCI George Tenet, to coordinate Israeli and Palestinian security efforts to control attacks by Palestinian extremists and terrorists on Israel's civil population - a clearly unacceptable threat. Under current circumstances, however, such references - and others made in Washington - seem bizarre.
The attack by the Israeli army on the native Palestinian population, under Israeli occupation for the past thirty-odd years, is in full swing, following what Richard Bennett of AFI describes as a precise and deliberate campaign plan. Border Guard units first sealed the frontiers with both Jordan and Egypt. Then heavily reinforced rapid reaction Mechanized Infantry units, placed under the control of the Central Command with its headquarters at Neva Yaacout, including the 1st 'Golani' Mechanized Brigade, 17th 'Givaty' Mechanized Brigade and 'Nahal' Mechanized Brigade along with the specialist COIN (Counter Insurgency) Harouv Mechanized, Shimshon Mechanized, Rimon Mechanized, Ducifhat Mechanized and Nachson Mechanized Infantry Battalions, Special Force and Intelligence units, conducted a rolling occupation of all the major Palestinian cities in the West Bank. Arafat's headquarters complex in Ramallah, Jenin, Bethlehem, Qalqilya, Tulkarm, and now Nablus, have been first surrounded, and then have seen company-sized Infantry assault formations with armored personnel carriers, supported by large numbers of tanks along with armed helicopters, conduct brutal street and house clearing operations with the alleged objective of flushing out Palestinian resistance fighters and terrorists.
Although in the US we do not get to see in the media what the rest of the world has seen or can see of what has been happening in the occupied territories, it is clear that highly aggressive and destructive tactics have been adopted. Tanks deliberately crush private cars parked along the streets, ambulances are damaged or stopped, heavy fire is directed at any doorway or window perceived to hide a threat, and special teams smash in doors to private dwellings, destroying property and possessions and generally terrorizing the occupants. Again according to Bennett, water and electricity supplies have been severed, orchards are bulldozed, the telephone system has been disabled and mobile phone signals blocked, except where Israeli electronic warfare specialists wish to monitor Palestinian communications as part of a blanket SIGINT surveillance program in the occupied areas. Aggressive and humiliating interrogation techniques are reportedly used, and males between the ages of 14 and 60 are being rounded up and taken to holding facilities. Palestinian radio, TV and newspapers have been closed down or disrupted and every possible action has been taken, including shooting at, or the use of physical intimidation to prevent news coverage.
There is also growing tension along the northern border with the Lebanon. This has already resulted in Israeli air attacks on what are described as suspected Hezbollah positions. As a result, the Syrian army has reportedly withdrawn its units from the area and the Bekaa valley to keep from getting hit.
The Israeli Army has disrupted Palestinian suicide bombings - a good thing - and will probably inflict mortal damage on Arafat's Palestinian Authority, an announced goal of Prime Minister Sharon. Whether these two cultures can now coexist on an even a nominal equal footing, as envisioned in the US Plan for a Palestinian "State," is dubious indeed. Each side is driven by their own internal logic. The choices before the Israeli government appear to be between ethnic cleansing or reaching some kind of accommodation, or possibly a slow combination of the two. The dilemma facing the US Administration, weighing the damage being done to US interests in the region against domestic US media support and election politics, is immense. Obviously the US intelligence community will follow the National Command's lead.
(Jonkers) (AFI Research, 04/04/02, R. Bennett < afi@supanet.com >)
INTELLIGENCE FOR OPERATION ANACONDA -- Interviews at Bagram Air Base with the operations and intelligence officers for the coalition joint task force involved in the recent Operation Anaconda in the Shah-i-kot region of Afghanistan addressed their view of the key to the operation's success. The intelligence chief was impressed by the coalition's local intelligence sources who tipped off planners to an influx of al Qaeda operatives in the Shah-i-kot region, leading to the coalition offensive there. "We got into their decision cycle...they were on an offensive move. And basically, we caught them prior to the kickoff of their offensive operation," the intelligence officer said. He continued to say that human intelligence on the ground was a great source of information,. and he certainly "found that to be true in the course of this operation..."
The chief of operations for Anaconda agreed but went on to stress that the coalition did not rely on a single type of intelligence. He said, "It's a redundant capability, and that's what we want to look at throughout operations--using all the technical means we have. But good old eyes-on [the target] and the human factor is invaluable." Another press account which may or may not have been based on an interview with the officers at Bagram Air Base, quoted one senior officer to say, "If there is any lesson from strategic intelligence's role, it's that a satellite hasn't been invented that can replace the man on the ground." Of course, the unspoken assumption in this assessment is that "the man on the ground" is a truthful source, something Afghanistan experience has also indicated is not always the case.(Harvey) Defense Week 1 Apr '02, pg. 8 // Nathan Hodge; Washington Times 2 Apr '02, pg. 5 // R. Scarborough)
NORTHERN COMMAND RISES -- The Pentagon has set up a team to organize Northern Command, with a new commander in chief, or CINC, that will be responsible for the military's defense of U.S. shores. A memo signed March 7 by Gen. Richard Myers, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, said President Bush is expected to approve creating this new homeland security command. He said the command's area of responsibility will encompass the continental United States, Alaska, Canada, Mexico and surrounding water out to 500 miles. NorthCom is to reach initial operating capability by Oct. 1 and be headquartered somewhere in the Washington area.
The memo says the Joint Chiefs have approved this definition of homeland security: "The preparation for, prevention of, deterrence of, preemption of, defense against, and response to threats and aggression directed towards U.S. territory, sovereignty, domestic population, and infrastructure; as well as crisis management, consequence management, and other domestic civil support." (Wash Times, March 29, 2002 // Notes from the Pentagon - Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough
SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE
CARNIVORE / DCS 1000 COURT JUDGMENT -- Privacy advocates have won another round in their fight to gain access to more information about the FBI's DSC 1000 (Carnivore) e-mail surveillance system. A federal judge this week denied a motion for summary judgment and ordered the FBI to produce within 60 days "a further search" of its records pertaining to Carnivore as well as a device called Ether Peek, which manages network traffic. (LEVINE 28 Mar 02)
http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1105-870178.html
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/story/0,,t269-s2107493,00.html
http://www.msnbc.com/news/730861.asp
NEW WEB CAMERAS ALLOW SPYING BY SUBSCRIPTION -- A Japanese company on Thursday unveiled two new series of network cameras that can be controlled from personal computers over the Internet. The cameras, from Kyushu Matsushita Electric Co. Ltd., come equipped with a Web server function and an Ethernet port. Uses for the cameras include monitoring areas in which current surveillance cameras are generally ineffective, such as certain home security situations. (Levine 28 Mar 02)
http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/16996.html
DUTCH USE EYE-SCAN SECURITY TECHNOLOGY -- Amsterdam's Schiphol airport is claiming success in a biometric security system that scans eyes and allows passengers to bypass traditional passport control. Schiphol is one of several major European airports embracing new technology to win back passenger confidence amid security fears following September 11.(Levine's Newsbites 28 Mar 02)
http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/europe/03/27/schiphol.security/index.html
SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES
CIA, INC: Espionage and the Craft of Business Intelligence, by F. W. Rustmann, Jr., Brassey's Inc., Dulles, Virginia, 2002, 200 pages plus Appendix, Glossary, Index and Biographic Note. . If anyone wants to get a rapid primer on how modern espionage relates to the national and international business world, this is an excellent book to read. It is surprising what this veteran CIA officer, a highly respected core member of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO), has been permitted to say by the Agency about various operations.
This jaded reviewer, in the profession for fifty-odd years, particularly liked that the author told his stories in an entertaining, straight-from-the-shoulder fashion, warts and all, telling what worked, what did not work. There are no maudlin reminiscences or ego-stroking, occasionally present in personal memoirs. Rustmann makes the connection between his experiences, for example in bugging a foreign embassy, to the needed preventive and protective actions by US business. The book is recommended reading for corporate officers, but even quite apart from its message to business, it is also a public primer on the crafts of human intelligence and counterintelligence, from the recruitment of spies to collection operations and analysis, from the threat posed by foreign (or competitive) economic intelligence collection in the US (particularly from minorities with "dual" loyalties) to the protection of information and the detection of espionage operations. In the end one realizes that in business, just as with terrorism (also discussed), we are still living in an jungle, in which the uninformed and unwary may pay a heavy price.
Fred Rustmann's book is recommended reading for corporate professionals, but also for students and members of the public who want to know more about US and foreign espionage operations from a highly reputable professional. (Jonkers)
SECTION V - LETTERS AND ANNOUNCEMENT
AFIO BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM -- Thursday 16 May 02, at the Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner (Rte 123 & Rte 7), McLean Virginia. Speakers from the White House, Department of Justice, FBI, CIA and DARPA have been invited, along with practicing professionals. The theme of the conference is "The Impact of Terrorism on Business," covering homeland and worldwide security, intelligence methods and counterintelligence practices relevant to business and professional enterprises, including IT and other technologies.
This one-day executive symposium is the fourth of an outstanding series of AFIO Business Intelligence conferences produced by two eminent AFIO Board members, Tom Spencer, Esq., Chairman, assisted by Ted Shackley (CIA ret), assuring the highest quality agenda and venue. It will be an exceptional opportunity for obtaining hard-hitting substantive information, legal and policy directions, professional contacts and useful networking. See agenda on the AFIO Website, <www.afio.com>
You may register by E-MAIL afio@afio.com, listing name, title, organization, address, phone and e-mail contact numbers. You may charge the registration fee to your VISA, MasterCard or American Express card via e-mail or fax (703 790 0320).
Alternatively you may register by MAIL and enclose your check. The address is: AFIO/Symposium, 6723 Whittier Avenue, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.
Registration fee, including lunch and parking, is $225.
A special discount rate of $135 is applicable to AFIO members (individual and corporate) and their personal guests, to professors and students, and to members of collegial intelligence professional organizations (SCIP, OPS, NIP, NMIA). Early registration is recommended to avoid disappointment. (Jonkers)
AFIO NATIONAL LUNCHEON PROGRAM -- The next luncheon will be held on Tuesday, 16 April 2002, at the Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner (Rte 123 & Rte 7) McLean, Virginia. The featured morning speaker is Lt. General (ret) James Clapper, Director of the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA), who will speak on the current role and future direction of his agency in the War on Terrorism. The second speaker is Jeffrey Richelson, speaking on CIA technology, past, present and future. The session will open at 11:00 a.m. for registration. General Clapper will speak at 11:30. Lunch will be served at 12:30. The session will end after the second speaker finishes, at 2:30 pm.
The registration fee is $27,00 for members and their guests, including lunch and free parking. Register by e-mail (afio@afio.com) providing name, title, organization, tel and fax, and pay with credit card. Alternatively, register by MAIL and enclose your check. The address is: AFIO/Symposium, 6723 Whittier Avenue, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533. Early registration is recommended - the last luncheon was sold out. (RJ)
OSS CONFERENCE -- 6 May 2002 - Washington, D.C. - OSINT 101 Course for Open Source Officers, sponsored by OSS Inc. For complete information on this annual international event, now in its 11th year, visit http://www.oss.net/OSS02 or send email to oss02@oss.net or call (703) 242-1700.
EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY -- TERRORISM THREAT ANALYSTS -- for Southern Command - needed are 4 - 7 experienced intelligence analysts. For more information contact Jack Massengale, tel. (202) 347 3100, fax (202) 347 3811, or by email < fedservice@yahoo.com > (RJ)
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