WIN 08-02 dtd 25 Feb 2002

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members, ISIS associates and WIN subscribers. RADM (ret) Don Harvey contributes articles to selected WINs.

AFIO BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM will be conducted on Thursday 16 May 2002, featuring the "Impact of Terrorism on Business," again produced by two eminent members of the Board of Directors, Tom Spencer, Esq. (Chairman) assisted by Ted Shackley (CIA ret), guaranteeing highest quality of content and venue. (Section V)

AFIO members in Washington DC area - see Quarterly Luncheon announcement for Tuesday 16 April .(Section V)

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CONTENTS of this WIN

SECTION I - Current Intelligence

            Pakistan Warning

            Afghanistan Warning

            Colombia Warning

            Philippine Intelligence SITREP

SECTION II - Context and Precedence

            British Special Forces Under Stress

            Russia - Kursk Investigation Continues

SECTION III - Cyber Intelligence

            Cyber Security Information Act - HR2435

            FAA Air Traffic Control Vulnerabilities

            Nigerian Money Scams Thriving

            Terrorism and Hi-Tech

SECTION IV - Books and Sources

            War In A Time of Peace - Halberstam

            Shadow Warriors - Clancy

SECTION V - Letters and Announcements

            AFIO Business Intelligence Symposium 16 May

            AFIO National Luncheon Program 16 April

            Calling all Former AF Intelligence Personnel

            Ref The Voice Stress Lie Detector

            Ref DoD Office of Strategic Influence

            In Memoriam - Maj Gen John Marks

            In Memoriam - Ten US Special Operations Personnel

            In Memoriam - Reporter Daniel Pearl

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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
 

PAKISTAN WARNING -- The Pakistan government has warned U.S. and other foreign diplomatic missions, embassies, dignitaries and businesses to boost their security, fearing that the slaying of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl may signal a wider plan to thwart President Musharraf's drive against extremism and terrorism.

Before his abduction, Pearl apparently had been on a very dangerous mission -- investigating links between Pakistani militants and Richard C. Reid, who was arrested in December for allegedly trying to ignite explosives in his sneakers during a Paris-Miami flight. Because of his quest for information, Pearl put himself in an exposed position and became a target for extremists who might have had multiple objectives, including (1) an attempt to destabilize the Musharraf government for its support for the war on terror; (2) revenge for the U.S. rout of al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan; or (3) because Pearl may have been getting close to sensitive information about militant groups or intelligence service activities.

            Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, the British-born Islamic militant who allegedly masterminded Pearl's abduction, has reportedly told his interrogators that his group wanted to teach a lesson to the U.S.-led anti-terror coalition and that Pearl's murder was just a first step. With Saeed in custody, the main target of the current massive manhunt is Amjad Faruqi, the man believed to have carried out the kidnapping. This effort includes "maximum cooperation" with the FBI, which reportedly has been allowed to interview suspects already in custody. (Jonkers) (AP 02/23/02 Islamabad / S. Gutkin) (<apnews/excite.com>) (PJK)

AFGHANISTAN WARNING- - A CIA NIC report has warned that Afghanistan may again slide into civil war, featuring local warlords among and between the main tribal groups, the Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazara, and contesting the efforts by the government in Kabul, the only semi-modern outpost in the country, trying to exert a dominant unifying influence. The report essentially states that the seeds of civil conflict are very real.

            The religious fundamentalist zealots of the Taliban maintained civic order with an extreme interpretation of an orthodox Islamic value system, including the suppression of such social ills as drug cultivation and pedophilia, as well as practicing draconian criminal and religious justice in a system of religious laws much like that of the Wahhabi in Saudi Arabia. Neighboring Pakistan supported the Taliban, based on Pushtun tribal affiliation and the need for an end to civil war on its border, as the US had also done ( with the justification of fighting against the Soviets). We may not like the Taliban ways as reflected in the media when compared to Western value systems, but order was maintained in a manner that apparently corresponded to values acceptable to the largely illiterate rural population, while falling harshly on the inhabitants of Kabul. The mistake made by the Taliban rulers was in hosting al Qaeda and Omar bin laden, from whom they derived income and military support, a situation which was defined as a war crime by the US after September 11^th. Although the Taliban did not participate in this crime, the Taliban government was destroyed along with the al Qaeda gang within the country. But the Taliban fanatics have just gone to ground, changed their turbans and merged with local warlords, and are still a potential force. It appears from the CIA report that unless a central army can be created with reasonable dispatch by Kabul, with continuing international special forces and strong US intelligence support, all bets for a stable state are off. (Jonkers) (AFI Research, Devon, TQ12 2BZ, UK / Bennett) ( afi@supanet.com ) (Kandahar Journal / C. Smith //PJK)

COLOMBIA WARNING -- On 20 February President Andres Pastrana announced that peace talks with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) had ended, and that the armed forces would reestablish government control over the demilitarized zone in southern Colombia. As a result of these developments, there is a high likelihood of greatly increased terrorist violence in Colombia. The Department of State has reaffirmed its warning that American citizens avoid all travel to Colombia.

            US intelligence and US-piloted Black Hawk helicopters supported a lightning offensive by some 13,000 Colombian troops into the FARC-held 'safe' area on 21 February. Defense Minister Gustavo Bell said that the ground assault was preceded by sustained air attack involving some 200 sorties by French-built Mirage and Israeli Kfirs of the 212th & 213th Fighter Squadrons against 85 targets, reportedly identified by US surveillance satellites and reconnaissance. CIA CTC officers and a limited number of US Special Forces were allegedly involved, mainly operating out of the 20th Intelligence Brigade command center at Santa Fe, Bogot�, while others were believed to be serving with the elite Lanceros Ranger Special Forces Battalion in Villaviciencio. The rebel area, about the size of Switzerland, was quickly captured. Some 16,000 FARC rebels had advance warning and most escaped into the jungles to the south to continue their guerilla war.

            This Columbian government operation is said to be the first part of a significant offensive against all rebel groups including the paramilitary AUC and the leftist ELN. It ties in with the recently mandated huge increase in US military aid to Colombia, much of it involving the use of at least six major private US companies who support military operations, in addition to the 400 US military personnel and an unknown number of CIA officers and Special Forces reportedly involved in covert operations. US government involvement has centered in the recent past on our fixation on the "war on drugs." The Defense Department reportedly advocates folding US operations under the new "war on terrorism," which would allow even greater US intelligence support and involvement. It may be noted that besides the narcotics dimension, the rebels are also considered a threat to US oil pipelines and interests in the country. (Jonkers) AFI Research, 25/02/2002) (afi@supanet.com) (US Department of State 25 Feb 02 //MSC Reporting Service) (http://travel.state.gov/colombia.html. )

PHILIPPINE INTELLIGENCE SITREP -- The U.S. military has reportedly begun intelligence-gathering flights over the southern Philippines as part of the war on terrorism. It appears that the flight missions, by naval and other reconnaissance intelligence surveillance aircraft originate from bases other than in the Philippines. The surveillance missions complement the growing presence of U.S. soldiers on the ground in the Philippines, projected to peak at 660 troops in coming months. By late spring, with improved intelligence, and better trained and equipped Filipino troops, it is expected that a significant jolt will be administered to the Abu Sayyaf guerrilla group that the United States is targeting. Abu Sayyaf has had links to al Qaeda although those ties were said to have weakened in recent years.

            The reconnaissance intelligence missions over the Philippines may establish a "baseline" of information" that is releasable. Imagery and signals intelligence will be combined with sightings by ground patrols to produce useable intelligence releasable to the Philippine commanders. Philippine troops are also expected to begin using secure radios, rather than the easily monitored models they have employed. Intelligence can then be used to create a predictive pattern about where these guerillas are likely to go, and troops can chase them without being monitored by the terrorists. (Jonkers) (WashPost 21 Feb02, p. A1 //T. Ricks &A Sipress) (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A42212-2002Feb20.html)

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SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

BRITISH SPECIAL FORCES UNDER STRESS -- With worldwide requirements for deployments of special forces surging, Britain, a partner with the US in many of these enterprises, is facing a shortage of specialist troops. UK Special Forces are reportedly over-stretched, currently providing anti-terrorist instant response units in Britain while also fielding operational teams not only in Afghanistan but allegedly also in Somalia and Kashmir. In addition, there is a problem of retention, as former special forces personnel frequently receive much more lucrative post-service offers, not only from government intelligence services but from private industry, including those fielding "mercenary" private armies ( a new UK (and US) growth industry).

            The 22^nd SAS (Special Air Service) is only the size of a battalion, although it could be amplified by reservists from the 21^st and 23^rd SAS. The Royal Marines' SBS (Special Boat Service) is even smaller. British intelligence services recruit and employ 'contract staff', consisting of former SAS, SBS and Commando personnel, operating on behalf of MI6 in clandestine operations. Britain also has paratroop units and the Royal Marine Commandos, but these units fall into the category of elite light infantry.

            Special Forces and the paramilitary groups of the major intelligence services - and private mercenary groups and business security units - are going to be increasingly in demand in the next few years in the UK -- and in the US. (Jonkers) (AFI Research, afi@supanet.com //Bennett)

RUSSIA - KURSK INVESTIGATION CONTINUES -- Admiral Vladimir Kuroyedov, Commander in Chief of the Russian Navy, said on 18 February that the Kursk submarine was loaded with obsolete torpedoes containing a highly unstable fuel mix when it sank 18 months ago, killing its crew of 118 sailors. He suggested that the fuel caught fire and caused a torpedo to explode. He noted that the torpedoes, designed in 1957, should not have been in service, and have since been decommissioned. Russia's chief prosecutor, Vladimir Ustinov, said that the investigation thus far had shown serious procedural breaches by the Northern Fleet's command, along with a lack of discipline. He stated that the final verdict on the cause of the sinking would come by mid-year when the sub's mangled torpedo bay is brought to the surface. Fourteen admirals and other high-ranking Russian Navy officers have been punished thus far for failing to protect the crew of the Kursk. Some have grumbled that President Putin had mistaken lack of leadership for the true problem - lack of money. This would go along with the judgment by some independent experts -- that the Navy command, desperate to shave costs, unwisely relied on a cheap torpedo fuel that Western navies had long rejected as too dangerous. (Jonkers) (Wash Post 19 Feb 02, p. A12)

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SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

CYBER SECURITY INFORMATION ACT - HR2435, with provisions to protect companies from criminal or civil charges that may stem from incriminating information they provide to the government about malicious intrusions into their networks or computers, is seemingly stalled in the House. The Congressional sponsors are trying to obtain the support of Attorney General John Ashcroft. President Bush has indicated he favors a "narrowly drafted exception to the Freedom of Information Act to protect information about corporations'... vulnerabilities to information warfare and malicious hacking."

            A significant number of businesses are currently unwilling to share information about cyber security, based on concerns about anti-trust and proprietary implications, the latter stemming from possible public exposure of company documents via the Freedom of Information Act. Opponents say the bills would make the companies that turn over information immune from prosecution for crimes and civil actions. (Jonkers) (Defense news 25Feb/4Mar 02, p. 70//D. Davidson)

FAA AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL VULNERABILITIES -- After flunking three congressional audits, the Federal Aviation Administration says air traffic control systems are finally safe from hack attacks. Computer security weaknesses in the U.S. air traffic control network that have dogged the Federal Aviation Administration since 1998 have been substantially closed, according to the FAA's CIO, but the agency needs more funding to continue the effort. No surprise there -- who doesn't? (Levine 02/22)  http://online.securityfocus.com/news/337

( http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/55/24166.html)

NIGERIAN MONEY SCAMS THRIVING -- The arrival of Internet cafes in Nigeria a few years ago has given new life to an old scam that's been bleeding millions of dollars annually from gullible Americans and Europeans. The fraud, which gained its name "Nigerian 419" from the relevant section of Nigeria's penal code, has lately become a way of life for many people in cities such as Lagos, where economic opportunities are severely limited, according to the U.S. Secret Service. (Levine 02/21)(http://www.newsbytes.com/news/02/174646.html)

TERRORISM AND HI-TECH -- A robust federal investment in science and technology research is crucial to the Defense Department's ability to stay one step ahead of the nation's technology-savvy enemies. "We live in a different world today," Assistant Defense Secretary Dale Klein said during a conference sponsored by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Klein said defense related technologies must be deployed more quickly now than they were during the Cold War, "when we only had one enemy and we knew who it was." (Levine 02/21) (http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0202/022102td1.htm)

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SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

WAR IN A TIME OF PEACE: BUSH, CLINTON AND THE GENERALS, by David Halberstam, Scribner, 2002. (ISBN 7432-0212-0). This is not an intelligence book, offers a perspective on the context in which intelligence has operated. Halberstam provides an analysis of American foreign policy from 1989 to 2000, during the very different administrations of presidents Bush and Clinton. During the Bush administration national security and moral-value considerations were the foundations of the American triumph over communism and the victory in the Gulf War. When Clinton was elected president there was a drastic generational shift. The focus was on domestic issues, setting foreign policy adrift, without direction or much interest. Halberstam provides the sad and grim background for foreign policy disasters like Bosnia, Somalia, Haiti, Rwanda and Kosovo. Gamesmanship, naivet�, and political dithering led to wars, ethnic cleansing, and massive humanitarian fiascoes. Well written perspective. (RJ) (Retired Officer, March 2002)

SHADOW WARRIORS: INSIDE THE SPECIAL FORCES, by Tom Clancy, Carl Stiner (General, USA ret) and Tony Koltz, Putnam, 2002. The book is relevant and informative, reportedly among the better ones produced by the Clancy writing machine. It is a non-fiction account that mirrors the excellent series of novels of W.E.B. Griffith's "Brotherhood of War" series. It details the history of the US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM),a unique joint command that in some ways almost appears to be a separate service. The participation by General Stiner, a former USSOCOM Commander, gives the book substantial additional credibility. The post-Cold War world is custom-made for "special" operations, calling for the kind of extraordinary capabilities, courage and dedication that the Army, Air Force and Navy/Marine personnel of this Command have displayed. Even though they shine on dangerous "special" missions, from Vietnam to Desert One and Afghanistan, a good deal of their work in years past has been carrying on the more mundane missions of training foreign forces and "nation-building." The book was obviously written before September 11th, and does not include their special heroics in Afghanistan, but a follow-on paperback edition will probably include this chapter. In view of the importance of 'special operations' in the war on terrorism, recommended reading. (G. Anderson) (WashTimes 26Feb02, p. A23) (RJ)

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SECTION V - LETTERS AND ANNOUNCEMENTS
 

AFIO BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM -- scheduled for Thursday 16 May 02, at the Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner (Rte 123 & Rte 7), McLean Virginia. Speakers from the White House, Department of Justice, FBI, CIA and Congress have been invited, along with practicing professionals. The theme of the conference is "The Impact of Terrorism on Business," covering homeland and worldwide security, intelligence methods and counterintelligence practices relevant to business and professional enterprises.

This one-day executive symposium is the fourth of an outstanding series of AFIO Business Intelligence conferences produced by two eminent AFIO Board members, Tom Spencer, Esq. , Chairman, assisted by Ted Shackley (CIA ret) , assuring the highest quality agenda and venue. It will be an exceptional opportunity for obtaining hard-hitting substantive information, legal and policy directions, professional contacts and useful networking.

You may register by EMAIL (afio@afio.com , listing name, title, organization, address, phone and email contact numbers. You may charge the registration fee to your VISA, MasterCard or American Express card via email or fax (703 790 0320).

Alternatively you may register by MAIL and enclose your check. The address is: AFIO/Symposium, 6723 Whittier Avenue, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.

Registration fee, including lunch and parking, is $225. An early discount of $50 to this fee is applicable to registrations received before 30 March 02.

A special discount rate of $135 is applicable to AFIO members (individual and corporate) and their guests, to professors and students, and to members of collegial intelligence professional organizations (NMIA, SCIP, OPS, NIP). An early registration discount of $10 will be credited to registrations before 30 March 02.

Early registration is recommended to avoid disappointment. (Jonkers)

AFIO NATIONAL LUNCHEON PROGRAM - The next luncheon will be held on Tuesday, 16 April 2002, at the Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner (Rte 123 & Rte 7) McLean, Virginia. The featured morning speaker is Lt. General (ret) James Clapper, Director of the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA), who will speak on the current role and future direction of his agency in the War on Terrorism.

The second speaker will be announced next week. The session will open at 11:00 a.m. for registration. General Clapper will speak at 11:30. Lunch will be served at 12:30. The session will end after the second speaker finishes, at 2:30 pm.

The registration fee is $27,00 for members and their guests, including lunch and free parking.

Register by email (afio@afio.com) providing name, title, organization, tel and fax, and pay with credit card.

Alternatively, register by MAIL and enclose your check. The address is: AFIO/Symposium, 6723 Whittier Avenue, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.

Early registration is recommended - the last luncheon was sold out. (RJ)

CALLING ALL FORMER AIR FORCE INTELLIGENCE PERSONNEL IN DC AREA -- .During the '80s and '90s an informal group of Air Force retired Intelligence folks gathered twice a year at Bolling AFB O'Club and the Ft Myers O'Club. It was a venue for getting together, network, swap lies, help each other, renew friendships, etc. There was no formal agenda. Folks from all disciplines attended. We always had a great time. It was quite popular. Then it stopped. Now Wally Scherer, the principal organizer, has scheduled another session. The Koran Room at the Ft Meyers OClub has been reserved for Wed 17 April, beginning at 1100hrs. There will be a 'heavy' buffet. The price is $20.00.The club has changed both its policy and prices since we were last there. They now require a $1000 deposit. Therefore please send a $20.00 check made out to 'Wally Scherer' soonest. That will also serve as your reservation. Address: Wally Scherer, 510 Devonshire Dr NE, Vienna VA 22180-3630 (Jonkers)

REF THE VOICE STRESS LIE DETECTOR article in WIN 07 - -

(1) Keith McE writes -- I would like to point out that these types of detectors basically only promise part of what is in your title. That is, they detect stress, pure and simple. This, of course, is not the same as detecting falsehood. This makes them useful as an interrogation tool, but not as a lie detector, per se. Popular press claims to their doing more than detecting stress should be disregarded (RJ)

(2) Tom McG. Writes -- The pioneering Voice Stress Analyzer, the Psychological Stress Evaluator (PSE), was developed as an electromechanical device many years ago by a group of former Army Intelligence officers who developed the system now called the Lantern. This was the first digital, lap-top based VSA system, and has been improved since. The system does all the processing in near- real-time (seconds), and the operator is presented with a visual representation of the voice stress signature. (More information can be obtained from the firm, The Diogenes Group) (RJ)

REF: the DoD OFFICE OF STRATEGIC INFLUENCE article in WIN 07 -- a number of members wrote us, but the issue is now moot, as SecDef Rumsfeld has announced that the office will be abolished. Peter O. wrote about the damage done by the disclosure, Anonymous identified the culprit who torpedoed the project by leaking classified details as part of the ongoing internecine Pentagon and Washington political warfare, Tony N. remarked that the OSI office reminded him of the OPS 33 Studies and Analysis Group during the Vietnam war, and William D. drew attention to the applicability of EO 12333, which assigns to the CIA all peacetime covert action programs, which includes propaganda, unless the president explicitly and clearly assigns that function to another agency. Thanks - our members are an interesting group! (RJ)

IN MEMORIAM -- Major General John Marks, USAF(ret). We regret to have to inform you that General Marks, a former Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, HQS USAF, passed away Tuesday, February 19, 2002, after a long illness. Internment services will be held at Arlington National Cemetery on 13 March at 3 p.m. His widow, Mrs. Julene Marks, requests that, in lieu of flowers, donations be sent to : Hospice of Northwest Florida, 101 Hart Street, Niceville, FL 32578. Many of us knew John Marks as a great guy, a 'straight-shooter' and valued and admired fellow professional and colleague. We mourn his passing. (RJ)

IN MEMORIAM - Ten US Special Operations personnel died as part of the anti-terrorist campaign in the Philippines. They were commemorated by their peers in a ceremony at their home station where the roll of their unit was called, each name repeated three times, without response. These young people were among our finest. They answered the call of duty, embraced the dangers of war, and paid the ultimate price. We honor and salute them.(RJ)

IN MEMORIAM - Reporter Daniel Pearl died at the hands of terrorists in Pakistan. He embraced high risk to bring us a story of terrorism , knowing that no one is invulnerable, and paid the ultimate price. He was one of a long line of journalists and cameramen who risked their lives to bring us their stories, in wars from the Civil War to Afghanistan, and paid with their lives. We mourn and salute this courageous American reporter. (RJ)

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