WIN 03-02 dtd 21 Jan 2002

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and ISIS associates. Don Harvey contributes articles to the WINs.

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C O N T E N T S of WIN #03-02
[HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to article or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents]

 SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
            Leaks Impede Hunt for bin Laden
            Na�ve Boeing 707 Caper

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
            Iran in Afghanistan

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE
            FBI NIPC Advisory
            Congress Takes Up Cybersecurity
            National Standards Agency Plays Increasing Role
            Shoebomber Sent Email Announcing Plans
            Intelligence Information Sharing Net Gains Support

SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES
            The JFK Assassination Conspiracy Theory
            Intelligence Issues for Congress
            Exceptions to the First Amendment
            NIE on Ballistic Missile Threat

SECTION V - LETTERS and ANNOUNCEMENTS
            Documentary Production
            Mike Spann Fund
            NMIA Hosts Two Events
            NSA Museum Open Again
            Member Comment on NIE Estimate on 2015 Ballistic Missile Threat
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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

LEAKS IMPEDE HUNT FOR BIN LADEN -- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld again stated that 'leaks' of classified information have impeded the tracking of Osama bin Laden and other wanted terrorists. "To the extent people run around and break federal criminal law and leak and provide classified information publicly, it is very harmful to what we're trying to do, and that has happened," he said.
      This announcement is surprising in one way, in that the number of leaks seem to have dropped since September 11th, with greater awareness of the deleterious results, and increased American unity of purpose. On the other hand, a decrease from the previous tidal wave even to a presumed trickle is still too much, and too harmful. The call to stop this stuff, these crimes, must be loud and clear. (Jonkers) (Secrecy News 17 Jan02) (http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/2002/01/dod011502.html)

NA�VE BOEING 707 CAPER -- A dictionary definition of "naive" includes: "unaffectedly, or sometimes foolishly, simple; artless" and notes that "naive" sometimes connotes "an almost foolish lack of worldly wisdom." The mind or minds that conceived and approved the installation of listening devices (to date, 27 have been found) in the $120 million Boeing 767 purchased by the PRC for use by President Jiang Zemin must be afflicted with naivet�. The Third Department (SIGINT) of the PRC General Staff discovered the bugs days before its planned October maiden flight; currently it sits unused with parts of its innards torn out on a military airfield north of Beijing. Chinese aviation officials and military officers have charged that US intelligence planted the bugs while the plane was undergoing a $10 million refitting by several US firms at the San Antonio International Airport. The plane was refitted to seat about 100 people in leather chairs that could be converted into beds. The new presidential suite consisted of a bedroom, sitting room and a bath with shower. A 48-inch television set, satellite communications and advanced avionics were also added.
     Over 20 Chinese air force officers and civilians who were involved in negotiations for the jet and its refitting are being investigated for negligence and for corruption - the PRC doled out $30 million but the US refit firms received $10 million. A senior air force office who was involved in the purchase of the aircraft is under house arrest, and a top officer of the Bodyguards Bureau has been criticized for tolerating lax security (Chinese security guards provided round-the-clock security for the plane while it was being refitted). At least from the press account and the PRC subsequent actions, it would appear bugs were actually installed in the plane.
     Although it probably will never be publicly known, it would be interesting to hear the US intelligence officials thinking behind the bugging operation. Since the refit work was going on during the tension occasioned by the PRC jet ramming the US EP-3E recon aircraft, it must have been apparent that the level of Chinese suspicion of US activities would be even higher than usual. The situation certainly did not allow US deniability or deflection of blame unto others. Nothing in the recent experience with Chinese intelligence would warrant US confidence that the Chinese are so unsophisticated as to not bother to check out the aircraft thoroughly upon receipt. There have been a number of instances in recent months of unofficial but obviously authorized statements to the press regarding intelligence exploits; an explanation of this caper would be enlightening even if discouraging. (Harvey) (WashPost 19Jan02, p. A1///J. Pomfret)

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SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

IRAN IN AFGHANISTAN -- President Bush warned Iranian officials not to harbor al-Qaeda fighters fleeing Afghanistan and not to try to destabilize the country's new government. If the warning is ignored, the President said, the U.S.-led coalition "will deal with them ... in diplomatic ways, initially." Until now, Iranians and Americans have worked together to fight the Taliban and to create Afghanistan's new government. Now, however, Iran appears to be moving to safeguard its traditional influence in western Afghanistan, apparently unnerved by growing U.S. military influence on almost all sides.
     The Iranian intelligence services are reported to be distributing money, weapons and humanitarian aid to minor commanders in the three western provinces in a bid to bolster their influence in the area. Iranian intelligence also is reportedly supporting Ismail Khan, the governor of Herat province, who is defying the interim government in Kabul (led by Hamid Karzai) by preparing to start a local radio and TV station without permission from the central government. Ismail Khan is a former governor of Herat, an ethnic Tajik, who ruled peacefully after the Soviet pullout in 1989, while the rest of Afghanistan was gripped by factional fighting. He decided not to confront the Taliban as they swept toward Herat in the mid-1990's. Instead, he fled to Iran with a convoy of 50 trucks. After the Taliban's demise, Mr. Khan quickly restored his rule, and since then has singled out Iran for praise. "Iran is the best model of an Islamic country in the world and we approve of the policy of Iran," he said in November. Asked today how supportive Mr. Khan may be of the interim government, an American official said: "That remains to be seen. Loyalties in Afghanistan are often fungible."

     In context,. Afghanistan as a state consists of lines on a map drawn in the era of the British empire near the beginning of the 20th century to serve as a buffer state between India and the expanding Russian Tsarist empire in Central Asia. Afghanistan has citizens, but no Afghan nationals, being a collection of tribes along with some city-folk in Kabul. The state is subject to influence from the east by Pakistan and its related Pushtun tribes, from the north by the Central Asian republics and Russia, and from the West by Iran. To this has been added the United States (taking over from Britain), which, aside from its territorial invasion of Afghanistan in the name of the war on terrorism, has a territorial interest in oil and gas pipelines through the country from the ocean to the Central Asian reservoirs, by-passing Russia and Iran. The newly appointed US senior diplomatic representative, for example, used to be a lobbyist for such a line. From Iran's perspective, Afghanistan is in a similar position as Mexico is to the US. They may be giving a small number of Al Qaeda fighters safe haven because Al Qaeda will fight to weaken Western influence, or they may not have full control over their borders - like Pakistan. Internally, Iran is torn internally between a moderate president and Islamic hard-liners. President Bush's statement should be a wake-up call on the risks of harboring Al Qaeda. (Jonkers) (Chr. Science Monitor, 17 January 2002, Pg. 1)(NYT //E. Schmitt) (Eastern Econ. Review, 17 Jan02 //M. Hiebert) (AP 10Jan02//Buzbee) (PJK) ( Iranian Foreign Ministry: http://www.MFA.gov.ir/)
(State Department's Iran page: http://www.state.gov/p/nea/ci/index.cfm?id=2404)

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SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

FBI NIPC ADVISORY -- The NIPC has received reporting that infrastructure-related information, available on the Internet, is being accessed from sites around the world. While in and of itself this information is not significant, it highlights a potential vulnerability.
The purpose of this advisory is to encourage Internet content providers to review the data they make available online. A related information piece on "Terrorists and the Internet: Publicly Available Data should be Carefully Reviewed" was published in the NIPC's HIGHLIGHTS 11-01 on December 07, 2001 and is available at the NIPC web site http://www.nipc.gov/. The Internet community is encouraged to apply common sense in deciding what to publish on the Internet. This advisory serves as a reminder to the community of how the events of September 11, 2001 have shed new light on our security considerations.(17 January 02) (nipc.watch@fbi.gov )(Special Agent Gary Harter) http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20020116/pl/terrorism_internet_alert_1.html) http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0102/011802j2.htm
http://www.newsbytes.com/news/02/173770.html
http://www.newsbytes.com/news/02/173797.html

CONGRESS TAKES UP CYBERSECURITY -- Lawmakers are moving to beef up the nation's information security with legislation that would provide more than $870 million over five years or a wide range of research and education grants. The Cybersecurity Research and Development Act, introduced Dec. 4 by Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., and five co-sponsors, would allocate more than $560 million to the National Science Foundation. (Levine 18 Jan02) http://www.newsbytes.com/news/02/173655.html

NATIONAL STANDARDS AGENCY PLAYS INCREASING ROLE -- Concurrent with the Bush administration's increased focus on homeland security and the high-tech sector, the Commerce Department's National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) will receive greater attention.
The events of Sept. 11 and the subsequent anthrax attacks have caused a major shift in priorities for the Institute, prompting the agency to double its efforts to develop new standards for everything from security scanners to biometrics to computer security. (Levine 18 Jan02)
http://www.newsbytes.com/news/02/173706.html
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0102/011602td1.htm

SHOEBOMBER SENT EMAIL ANNOUNCING PLANS -- a French newspaper reports that investigators had found an e-mail message in which alleged shoe bomber Richard Reid wrote of plans to destroy an airliner. Investigators tracked the e-mail thanks to a cybercafe address found on Reid. The 28-year-old Briton pleaded not guilty in a U.S. court on Friday to charges that he tried to blow up the Miami-bound plane he boarded in Paris last month.(Levine 18 Jan02)
http://www.siliconvalley.com/docs/news/reuters_wire/1736684l.htm

INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION-SHARING NET GAINS SUPPORT -- After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks broad-sided the intelligence community, top officials believe they have the impetus needed to link the 14 intelligence agencies into an information-sharing system originally proposed more than a year ago. The plan, put together at the end of 2000, calls for the development during the next two years of a network- or Web-based system that brings together all of the information intelligence agencies collect.(Levine 18 Sep 02)
http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2002/0121/news-share-01-21-02.asp

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SECTION IV - BOOKS AND SOURCES

THE JFK ASSASSINATION CONSPIRACY THEORY -- The widespread conspiracy theory that linked the Central Intelligence Agency to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy has its roots in a sophisticated Soviet disinformation campaign, according to an analysis by author Max Holland that is published in the latest issue of the CIA journal Studies in Intelligence.
     According to Holland, a Soviet-inspired report in an Italian newspaper tying businessman Clay Shaw to the CIA led New Orleans district attorney James Garrison to his conclusion that the Agency was implicated in a cover-up of the Kennedy assassination. This view would later be dramatized in Oliver Stone's movie JFK.
     Holland's scholarly detective work makes perhaps the best use to date of the rich inventory of documents that were declassified at the direction of the Assassination Records Review Board (ARRB).
See "The Lie That Linked CIA to the Kennedy Assassination" in the Fall-Winter 2001 edition of Studies in Intelligence here:
(http://www.cia.gov/csi/studies/fall_winter_2001/article02.html)

INTELLIGENCE ISSUES FOR CONGRESS -- The assorted intelligence policy issues that confront Congress in the aftermath of September 11 are reviewed and summarized in "Intelligence Issues for Congress" by Congressional Research Service analyst Richard A. Best, Jr., updated 8 January 2002 (Secrecy News) (http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/IB10012.pdf)

EXCEPTIONS TO THE FIRST AMENDMENT -- It is sometimes forgotten that there are numerous conditions and limitations to the freedoms that are guaranteed by the First Amendment to the Constitution. A Congressional Research Service report entitled "Freedom of Speech and Press: Exceptions to the First Amendment" by CRS analyst Henry Cohen, updated November 5, 2001, provides an instructive account 
(http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/95-815.pdf)

NIE ON BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT -- An unclassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the ballistic missile threat, Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015, was released publicly today and is available on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) page of CIA's public web site http://www.cia.gov

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SECTION V - LETTERS AND ANNOUNCEMENT

DOCUMENTARY PRODUCTION -- "My name is Nancy Peckenham and I am a producer with AT Media, an independent documentary production company with offices in New York and Tel Aviv. We are currently producing a documentary about suicide bombers and plan to focus on the period 1983-present. 
     "Our program will open with a report on the suicide bomb attacks at the US Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983. Those attacks have been attributed the Hezbollah, which was just forming at that time. We are looking to interview, either on background or on camera, an individual with direct knowledge about these events.
      "Could you refer my inquiry to anyone at AFIO whom you think might be able to help me in my research? In addition to my email address npeck@bestweb.net.  I can be reached at my home/office, 845-534-5086. You can also leave a message for me at AT Media, 212-463-7437,ext. 22."

MIKE SPANN FUND -- Tom Huse, San Francisco Chapter, writes: "I will today be sending a check for $500 to The Mike Spann Fund as a contribution from the Jim Quesada Chapter (San Francisco Bay Area). The donation was presented to our membership at our January 16 meeting, and unanimously approved.
Thanks for your help, and let me know of the appropriate way to encourage other chapters to contribute to this fund."
Ed. Note: - Bravo to the SF Chapter - you are showing the way.  Donations may be made to the Mike Spann Fund, c/o Arnold & Porter, 555 12th St NW, Washington, DC 20004. Former CIA Officer Jeff Smith, a lawyer with Arnold & Porter, is presently handling this fund for CIA. The Agency will shortly set-up a permanent "CIA Officer's Memorial Foundation" for future cases, with a new address. (Jonkers)

NMIA SYMPOSIA - The Defense Intelligence Status (DIS 2001) symposium (conducted by the National Military Intelligence Association) is being held on12 February 2002. The Counter Intelligence (CI 2001) symposium (conducted by the National Military Intelligence Association and the Operations Security Professionals Society) is being held on 13 February 2002. Both events will be conducted at the TRW facility in Fairfax, VA on 1 Federal Systems Drive. Registration forms are available online at http://www.nmia.org and http://www.opsec.org.

NSA MUSEUM OPEN AGAIN -- Jack Ingram, NSA Curator, wrote: "We opened to the public again on 13 December but for now only on week days 9 to 4 as before but no Saturday hours. I hope to be open on Saturdays again in this spring. NSA National Cryptologic Museum.

Bill G. writes - REF: NIE ESTIMATE ON 2015 BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT -- "Why all of the concern about ballistic missiles when we have almost no defense against cruise missiles, or, for that matter, anything else that flies below 1000 feet? Several years ago, congress was briefed that there were 77 nations in the world that operated CMs as part of their arsenal. If only 10% of them don't like us very much, that's still more than confront us with BMs."

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