Weekly Intelligence Notes #32-00
11 August 2000

WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN)#32-00 dtd 11 August 2000

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SPECIAL NOTES - SEE SECTION V BELOW:
(1) In Memoriam - Dick Bates has died.
(2) AFIO Authors
(3) Symposium 2000 / 25th Anniversary Convention Notes

SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

SENATE FBI CRITIQUE -- A Senate Appropriations committee report that has not been made public has criticized the FBI for taking on too many tasks and misuse of costly elite units. The report stated that the FBI spends too much time on bank robberies and other crimes that could be handled at the state and local level, instead of focusing on counterterrorism, counterintelligence, cyber crime and other clearly federal responsibilities.
The report found that the FBI's mission overlaps the responsibilities of a host of other law enforcement agencies, and its work has suffered because it is pulled in every direction. The Bureau was castigated for misusing highly trained special units like its Hostage Rescue Team and its SWAT teams, which were said to have participated in everything "from the Miss America pageant to the Olympics to the pope's visit." "The Bureau is directed to get the HRT out of the dignitary protection and event security business."
FBI spokesman John Collingwood said that "the FBI will take the committee's observations to heart and study the situation closely." He also noted that blurred jurisdictions had led FBI Director Louis Freeh to "implement the FBI's first long-term strategic plan and most recently to reorganize the FBI in recognition of these new priorities." In the new plan counterintelligence and counterterrorism are top priorities. (Wpost 21Jul00 p. A29/ D. Vise) (Jonkers)

RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE FACILITY IN CUBA -- The House passed a measure (275 to 146), promoted by a group of anti-Castro members, that would prohibit Washington from restructuring Russia's old (Soviet era) $485Million debt unless Moscow closes its multi-billion dollar intelligence-eavesdropping facility at Lourdes, Cuba. The Russians pay more than $200 million a year in rent to Cuba for the facility, which employs 1,500 Russian technicians, gathering electronic information.
Administration officials noted that this type of measure would endanger the continued operation of US electronic listening posts around the world, and further, that both US and Russian signal intelligence collection are an important part of verification of arms control agreements, thereby contributing to world stability and peace. The House measure is unlikely to pass the Senate. (Wpost 21Jul00, Pincus) (Jonkers)

CONGRESS ORDERS REPORT ON SECURITY LEAKS -- A classified CIA overview of the US Intelligence Community, briefed to Japanese intelligence officials, recently appeared on the internet. It included the names of hundreds of Japanese security agents. It was posted on the Cryptome site run by John Young in New York City, who has been posting documents pertaining to intelligence and encryption for six years. He received the material from Noda Hironari, a former officer in Japan's Public Security Investigation Agency. Young turned down an FBI request to remove the material.
As a result of this and a variety of other leaks, Congress has ordered CIA to produce a report by December 2000 outlining all security leaks that have taken place since 1998, including an assessment of the damage caused.
Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientist's Project on Government Secrecy, said intelligence leaks stem from (1) an erosion of discipline, (2) a loss of respect for the classification system, and (3) the increased ability to disseminate information. He holds that the intelligence community has been slow to adapt to the Digital Age and is in need of a major policy overhaul in the area of classification policy. (Fed Computer Wk 31Jul00//Verton) (Jonkers)

NIE ON FOREIGN RESPONSES TO US MISSILE DEFENSE -- The proposed US missile defense system is a $60 Billion program to build 20 interceptors in Alaska by 2005, growing to 100 interceptors in later years. Off-the-record briefings to the press indicate that a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on projected foreign reactions to the deployment of the US limited missile defense system has now been delivered to the President, after several delays due to disagreements within the intelligence community.
The NIE, "Foreign Responses to US National Missile Defense Deployment," is reported to include the following assessments: -- (1) the system deployment would cause China to expand its current modernization of its ICBM complex from about 20 silo-based nuclear missiles to up to 200 warheads on both mobile and multiple-warhead ICBMs by 2015. (2) The Chinese ten-fold increase in its ICBMs would prompt India and Pakistan to respond with their own build-ups. (3) Russian opposition to the anti-missile defense would be a complicating factor in future nonproliferation and arms control efforts, but they are expected to continue to reduce their nuclear forces (4) European concerns could strain the Atlantic alliance. (5) North Korea could pose a new threat of ballistic missile attack on the US -- if they lifted their freeze on testing and developed a successful third stage on Taepodong II during the next fifteen years, and (6) If they receive aid from Russia, China or North Korea, Iraq and Iran could conceivably test an intercontinental missile, possibly by 2010.
The estimate does not attempt to predict when threats will emerge but instead projects trends based on existing conditions and an evaluation of technical capabilities and intentions as we perceive them. It notes that the surreptitious export of missile and weapons technology creates a wild card that makes it difficult if not impossible to say for certain how soon a missile threat would emerge.
One of the press reports noted that the public and political debate on missile defense is NOT being driven by official estimates such as this NIE, but rather by the 1998 report of the congressionally-appointed committee headed by former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld. That report predicted that North Korea could have missiles capable of striking the US by 2005 . It has been considered much more of a "worst case" scenario than the official estimates. (NY Times 10 Aug '00, p. 1. Washington Post 10 Aug '00, p.2; Reuters 8Aug) (Harvey)

INDIA DEVELOPING NEW SENSING SATELLITE -- By the end of this year, India intends to launch an intelligence collection satellite, called the 'Test Evaluation Satellite' (TES), reportedly to carry out imagery surveillance for the military forces along the Indian coast and borders with China and Pakistan. The project began in the middle of 1999 stimulated by the success of Pakistani ground forces in moving into mountain terrain of the northern states of Jammu and Kashmir, undetected by India. The low earth orbit bird is said to have a one-meter resolution capability, and is the first of a planned constellation of six satellites.
During a recent visit to the US, the chairman of India's Space Commission confirmed the launch schedule but described the bird as a remote sensing satellite designed to test various technologies. He also said India will not have one-meter resolution until a launch in 2003. India demonstrates that yet another nation has absorbed the lesson first learned by the US of the value of overhead imagery to military forces, including those deployed to the field. (4Aug) (Harvey)


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

CIA's NEW SHERMAN KENT SCHOOL OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - CIA's new school, located in suburban Virginia's high-tech corridor, has been open since May in an effort to improve training for CIA's intelligence analysts and to build expertise and loyalty. The curriculum includes everything from intelligence ethics to denial and deception. Case studies focus on past achievements and failures. Field trips broaden perspective to understanding the contributions of other agencies, such as NSA. Exercises provide stressful situations for rapid analysis and production. What students get here is "a short, intense slice of what they face for the rest of their careers. It is not about answers. It's about a mission. And heavy responsibilities. There are lives at stake at what they do." Stolen blueprints and bugged hotel rooms are fine, but in the end the swift and meaningful analysis of the torrent of information that pours into the Intelligence Community and CIA is the key to telling the president the real intentions of America's adversaries. Databases and Context are critical.
Sherman Kent, revered CIA analyst and Yale history professor, first proposed a school for analysts in 1953. It has taken forty-seven years, but pushed by the demands of US involvement and leadership of an unpredictable and multi-faceted world, it is finally in operation. (LATimes 21Ju00, p.A1// B.Drogin) (Jonkers)

TALEBAN FROLICS -- Afghanistan's religious police arrested a dozen visiting Pakistani soccer players and shaved their heads as they prepared for a match in Kandahar because they were wearing shorts. Information Ministry official Maulvi Hameed explained the action was taken because the players had violated the dress code, which requires male athletes to wear long trousers. (FFJrnl) (Jonkers)

MOSSAD ADVERTISES VACANCIES -- Traditionally, Israel's super secret foreign espionage agency MOSSAD has recruited its members via the 'old boy's' network. But in the new Israel, with its increased sense of security, its high-tech start-ups, sky-high salaries, new national wealth and 'Me Generation' youth, the Mossad has a new recruitment problem: Competition. This week the agency has begun advertising vacancies, claiming "The Mossad is opening up - not to everyone; Not to many; Maybe to you." They now even take women.
The MOSSAD's "opening up" may be an overstatement. Compared to CIA or Britain's MI6, the Mossad has barely poked its head out of the cloakroom. Unlike CIA, Mossad has no listed telephone number, no Web site, no spokesman, produces no press releases and does not brief journalists. To Mossad veterans like Shabtai Shavit, who retired after some 33 years in the early 90's, all of this plus CIA recruiters at Harvard University, appeared bizarre and unthinkable for Israel. But Israeli attitudes have shifted along with their increased wealth and security. In this new environment former Mossad chief Yitzak Hofi on Israeli radio said that "We are confronted with remorseless competition from the world of 'high-tech' which offers highly attractive salaries and career prospects. .. but we need secret agents more than ever ..." More than 1,000 potential candidates responded to the one-month public recruitment campaign. (WPost 5Aug00,p.A13/ Hockstader; AFP 8Aug00) (Jonkers)

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

BROWN ORIFICE -- The FBI National Infrastructure Protection Center (NIPC) made public Information System Assessment # 00-052, covering "Brown Orifice" (where DO they get their names?) on August 5, describing a new vulnerability in Netscape Communicator and Netscape Navigator.
A backdoor exploitation program known as 'Brown Orifice' takes advantage of a hole in the Netscape browser and could allow access to any file on the victim's system. Affected Versions include: Netscape Communicator 4.74 and earlier with Java and down-loadable plug-ins enabled. Netscape Navigator 4.74 and earlier with Java and down-loadable plug-ins enabled. Affected Platforms are: All platforms on which Java and Netscape are available. Unaffected Platforms: Microsoft Internet Explorer and Mozilla are not currently affected. Until a fix becomes available, Java should be disabled in the browser.

Information about this exploit has appeared on several popular web sites including Slashdot and BugTraq. It is expected that as knowledge of the exploit, its source code, and variations become more widespread, the risk to users' systems will increase. Recipients are asked to report actual or suspected criminal activity to their local FBI office or to NIPC, and to your military or civilian computer incident response group and other law enforcement agencies as appropriate. The NIPC web site is located at http://www.nipc.gov.
This FBI Awareness of National Security Issues and Response (ANSIR) communication is intended for corporate security professionals and others who have requested to receive unclassified national security advisories. Individuals who wish to become direct recipients of FBI ANSIR communications should provide business card information, i.e. company name, address, phone,fax, etc., to ansir@leo.gov for processing, with a brief description of the product and/or service provided by your organization.(FBI ANSIR 11Aug00//Hart) (Jonkers)

SECTION IV - BOOKS

SPYTIME: THE UNDOING OF JAMES JESUS ANGLETON, by William F. Buckley, Jr., Harcourt, July 2000. Although a novel, this latest work by William Buckley is clearly identified as based on Angleton's career over three decades in the OSS and CIA, even if half the pages are taken up by an account of Antonio Crespi, presumably a fictional recruit and Angleton protege. According to reviewer Allen Weinstein the result is an "absorbing but at times disconnected narrative, illustrating some of modern American tradecraft's recurrent dillemmas."
Buckley portrays Angleton's obsessive suspicion of co-workers and adversaries, Soviet defectors and administration officials alike -- in Angleton's view, that was his job, as indeed it was -- to cast a jaundiced eye on everyone, and to consider all information, from whatever source. But Angleton pursued this to extreme lengths to the point of paranoia, with a penchant for suspecting Soviet agents in the highest places, including, among others, William Colby (who fired Angleton in 1974) and Henry Kissinger, and significantly involving a giant misjudgment such as believing in Kim Philby's innocence, in spite of evidence to the contrary. Philby's departure for Moscow in 1963 -- after fourteen years of a close relationship with Angleton -- may well be part of the explanation for Angleton's increasingly obsessive suspicions about everyone.
Nicknamed "Mother" or "The Gray Ghost," he was a cadaverous figure who served under six CIA directors. He became a Cold Warrior whose paranoia about Soviet Communism burned so fiercely it eventually consumed him - a fate somewhat similar to the protagonist of Buckley's previous book about the late Senator McCarthy. His often groundless suspicions discredited and demoralized CIA counterintelligence, and in the reaction to Angleton, permitted a real mole, Aldrich Ames, to operate undetected for a decade.
This novel is a mixture of fact and fiction, leaving the reader to figure out which is what. It is a book with a thesis: that there was a fifth man in the Soviet spy ring (Burgess, Maclean, Philby, Blunt and XXX [other than Cairncross], identified by name -- a person now safely dead), thus "redeeming" Angleton's suspicions, but reviving speculation and conspiracy theories. But since it is a novel, it also includes the mandatory "love" interest (e.g. "as he swiveled his body, she saw the placid remains of his ardor") -- descriptions of which many reviewers found to be a downright hoot. Buckley's book has received wide but mixed publicity from reviewers - some have indicted it as becoming perilously close to incoherence, others are more gentle. Between consulting the library to see what is fact and what's fiction, and looking up words such as succubus, 'Spytime' appears to be a book for those who like their espionage erudite and their intelligence intelligent.
(Book not reviewed by Ed - no ISBN; above is based on reviews by Alan Weinstein (author of "The haunted Wood") in WashTimes30Jul00, B8; Scott Shane, Balt Sun 16Jul, p.12; Erik Tarloff, BkReview, 16Jul00, p.8; and AnnPrichart in USA today, 3Aug 00, p. D6)) (Jonkers)

SECTION V - SPECIAL NOTES

IN MEMORIAM -- Richard W. Bates, Captain USN (ret), an AFIO Life Member, died suddenly as a result of complications from infection after surgery on August 10th. A graduate of the US Naval Academy, class of 1948, he served as an intelligence officer during the Korean War and in various positions, including Commandant of the Defense Intelligence College, until his retirement in 1979. He joined AFIO that same year, serving as Vice President 1979-1982, and as a member of the Board of Directors 1982-1991.
Dick Bates' unexpected passing is a painful loss for all who knew him. Within the professional associations (AFIO, NIP, NMIA) he was known not only as a fine, strong, straightshooting human being, but as one of that small coterie of colleagues who are "do'ers." A good writer, his book reviews were insightful and a pleasure to read. He and his wife Connie also ran CIN, the Common Interest Network, which served as a valuable bridge between the various intelligence associations. Dick will be missed. A good man is gone. There will be no memorial services. Members wishing to express condolences to Mrs Constance Bates, Dick's wife for the past forty years, and son Richard, can do so c/o AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, St 303A, McLean VA 22101-4533. We will make sure it will be delivered. (Jonkers)

AFIO AUTHORS -- Send an email with your books on intelligence and intelligence-related subjects. We'll post it on the our Website. Title, publisher, location, year, ISBN. Mention Notes, bibliography, index, glossary etc. Provide three-line summary of contents. If you have a special source where the titles are still available, supply that info as well.

AFIO SYMPOSIUM / CONVENTION NEWS -- Most speakers have now been confirmed. We have a super program - come, enjoy, support, participate and celebrate AFIO's 25th anniversary! Bring a guest. See our Website for details www.afio.com or check your snailmail. Our website will contain last minute agenda changes, final speaker orders, and other information.

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WINs contain intelligence commentaries derived from open-source information and have been produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers since January 1998.
Associate editors Don Harvey and John Macartney contribute articles.

For comments, contact the editor Roy Jonkers at  afio@afio.com 
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