AFIO WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES - WIN #38-99, 24 Sep 1999

WINs are produced by Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers.

Prof. Robert Heibel, Carl Griffith, and Ray Sanford contributed raw material for this WIN. Elizabeth Bancroft, former editor of The Surveillant, contributed three articles.

WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be disseminated without permission of the Editor afio@afio.com.

AFIO SYMPOSIUM: Senator Ted Stevens, Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee and the Defense Subcommittee, has accepted AFIO's invitation to participate in the "Intelligence 2000" Symposium at the NRO, hosted by the Hon Keith Hall, on Friday 22 October . AFIO members, guests and fellow professionals (former and active) are invited to join us for this exceptional event. See agenda and registration information on our web site www.afio.com.

CONGRATULATIONS to AFIO member Joanne B. Perriens for sponsoring Dr. Wynfred Joshua as a new AFIO member and WIN reader #1,110. The book award will be forthcoming shortly as a small token of appreciation for your support, Joanne, and we welcome Dr. Joshua, a distinguished member of the Intelligence Community. Win readership has now grown to 1,125 - - a little behind the pace of last month.

Keep AFIO dynamic, relevant, and growing - - Every Member sponsor a New Member in '99!!!

SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

CHINESE MISSILES IN PAKISTAN - - - A recent unclassified U.S. intelligence report for the first time states unequivocally that Pakistan received M-11 short-range ballistic missiles from China. In a previous reference, the National Air Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio hinted at the intelligence community's finding in an April 1999 report on ballistic and cruise missile threats. It included Pakistan in a chart on short-range ballistic missile systems, indicating that Islamabad had fewer than 50 M-11 launchers.

In Washington, all is politics. This intelligence report may pose a problem for the Administration, which is handcuffed in its policy determinations by Congressional sanctions legislation, in this case, sanctions against China, a politically controversial subject. A U.S. State Department official insisted that the finding contained in the latest national intelligence estimate -- which includes input from the department's own intelligence bureau -- is not based on any new information. As a result, it does not change the view of policymakers that there is not sufficient proof that Pakistan has complete missiles. "In terms of a determination, we have not reached a legal conclusion that Pakistan has received full M-11 missiles," the official said. He noted that the United States has a responsibility to impose "very high evidentiary standards" before imposing sanctions, especially when a government like China has denied providing Islamabad with complete missile systems. (Reuters Wash. 13 Sep 99, C. Giacomo) (courtesy R Heibel) (RoyJ)

RUSSIA's WAR AGAINST TERRORISTS - - - - Russia's Federal Security Service ( FSB,) said it is ``thankful'' for help offered by the FBI in fighting terrorism. General Alexander Zdanovich, head of the FSB's public relations center, said that Osama Bin Laden, leader of the Al-Qaida organization and under indictment for planning terrorist attacks on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania last year, had been in continuous contact with Islamic rebels in Chechnya. ``We are thankful to our FBI colleagues, because the special services of all countries are fighting international terrorists,'' said Zdanovich. Russia has suffered several incidents of terrorism (apartment explosions) this month, which have been linked by the FSB to the conflict between Russian forces and Islamic militants in Southern Russia.

In the northern Caucasus region, Russian bombers have been attacking targets in Czechnya as part of the campaign against the Islamic fundamentalist insurgents who have engaged in terrorist incidents and who invaded Russia's Dagestan region in recent weeks. Taking a leaf out of the US book on Kosovo and Serbia, the Russians are attacking both military targets AND the civic infrastructure of Czechnyia (dams, power stations etc), including targets associated with the rebel leader, causing, as in Kosovo, thousands upon thousands of terrified civilians to flee the country. (Interfax, Moscow, Sept. 20 (Bloomberg)courtesy R. Heibel; Wpost 28Sep 99 ) (RoyJ)

RUSSIAN-CHINESE ARMS TRADE - - Russia is considering the sale of two nuclear-powered submarines to China, along with the construction of an aircraft carrier.

Russia's Naval Machine-building Design Bureau Malakhit, St Petersburg, and the Amur shipbuilding plant, Komsomolsk-on-Amur, have combined to offer China two "Project 971" Akula attack submarines through Russian's state-owned arms export agency. The Akula carries no ballistic missiles. Currently the Chinese have five Han-class nuclear-powered submarines, but they are probably too noisy for modern undersea combat. The Type 093 subs currently being built in China with Russian help, is still under development. The Akula would give China a quieter, modern submarine, capable of diving to 2,000 ft and speeds up to 35 knots, and operating autonomously for up to 100 days. It would be a significant increase in Chinese capability. Russia has Akula's sitting on the shelf, and is ready to sell China anything that is no threat to Russia - for cash.

The aircraft carrier gambit is a long-range project. The Nevskoye Project Design Bureau in St Petersburg indicated the Chinese are considering placing an order. The Chinese theoretically could develop a hull on their own, but they would be unlikely to master such key components as the so-called trampoline - - the concave incline at the end of Russian-designed carriers from which fighters take off. Thus the Chinese could save both money and time by engaging the Russians.

The Chinese need a carrier for strategic reasons, for both the Taiwan question and their claim on the Spratly islands - - a potential source of oil. By 2020 Chinese oil consumption will equal that of the US, and their claim to the Spratly's will become urgent. Whether the carrier negotiations will be pursued is still a question. The Chinese need to find the money. But the web of Russian-Chinese arms negotiations could be viewed as controversial and threatening long-range stability in the Pacific region. ( Def News 27 Sep p. 26, and 4 Oct, p.34) (RoyJ)

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

KGB AGENT RECEIVED LESSONS IN LOVEMAKING - - The Mitrokhin / Christopher Andrews tale continues to be interesting. The latest reveals a novelists dream of covert operations. John Symonds, a former police officer in Scotland Yard's anti-pornography squad, accused in 1969 of taking bribes, fled the country and was picked up by the KGB and trained to stage "male honeytraps " - - - ensnaring lonely women at Embassies. In a scenario that might be found in a spy novel, the Soviets trained him to improve his seduction and lovemaking techniques and polished up his post-coital pillowtalk. Said Symonds, now a portly 63 years old, "I was taught how to be a better lover by two extremely beautiful girls. It was very pleasant." His prime job was to sleep with British women employed abroad and extract secrets. Among his conquests on behalf of the Soviets were two British women who worked in the British Embassy in Moscow. Other conquests included the wife of a West German official in Bonn. Symonds recently said that he made three trips to the Soviet Union and was personally thanked by then-KGB chief Yuri Andropov. ``On my visit there I was given VIP treatment. I was treated like a lord. "

He must not have been perfect, however, for his Soviet handlers tried to improve his image by paying for a new set of teeth - - gold teeth. But, said Symonds, "I think the gold put off as many women as did my old teeth." .

He was active from 1972 until 1980 on four continents, then, homesick, returned to England where he served a two-year jail term for corruption. He contacted the British secret service to give details of his espionage career, but was dismissed as a "fantasist" - - perhaps not unreasonably (lovemaking instruction??? gold teeth???) Now he has surfaced again and become credible - as part of the files brought to England seven years ago by KGB archivist Vasili Mithhrokhin.

Although the Mitrokhin papers have been in the hands of MI5 for many years, the recent (MI5-authorized) publicity has resulted in a "spy-scandal" flurry of excitement in the British press and public political shadow-dancing. The Labour government has ordered an investigation into what began as a tale of a communist granny and a Romeo policeman -- both unlikely Soviet agents -- and is now turning into a classic espionage scandal. Christopher Andrew, a Cambridge academic and co-author of ``The Mitrokhin Archive: the KGB in Europe and the West,'' told Reuters that ``there are thousands (of agents identified) but of course they extend around the world. Absolutely nobody who spied for the Soviet Union in any part of the world between the Bolshevik revolution in 1917 and the mid-1980s can be certain that his or her secrets are safe.''

And that may be the key reason for publicizing the cases - a warning shot across the bow of potential traitors and spies. (Reuters 13 Sep.99 Paul Majendie, London) (Raw material courtesy R Heibel) (RoyJ)

ALLEGED BRITISH SPIES UNMASKED - - - The list of alleged British spies identified in the Mitrokhin and Stasi papers have cause a furor in British politics and a feeding frenzy in the British press. The list thus far released includes: (1) MELITA NORWOOD: former secretary, 87, acknowledges supplying British atomic secrets to the Kremlin. (2) JOHN SYMONDS: former London policeman, 64, admits spying for Soviets by seducing women. (3) RAYMOND FLETCHER: Late British legislator cited as Russian agent in KGB papers. His widow denies it. (4) ROBIN PEARSON: University lecturer, 44, cited in TV documentary on Stasi papers as spying for East Germany until 1989. Pearson says there is ``a story,'' but won't elaborate. (5) VICTOR ALLEN: Retired economics professor, 77, acknowledges giving East Germans information about British anti-nuclear activists. 6) RICHARD CLEMENS: Former editor of left-wing newspaper Tribune, 71, denies spying. Says his name appeared in KGB files probably because Soviet agents were padding expenses. (7) FIONA HOULDING: Cited in Stasi files as trained in mid-1980s. Denies any spying activities. 8) GWYNETH EDWARDS: Former university lecturer in German, cited in news reports of Stasi papers. Has not responded to press queries. (AP, 9/21/99) Courtesy Prof Heibel) (Roy J)

SOVIET COVERT SABOTAGE PREPARATIONS IN THE US -- The Mitrokhin book, source of unending revelations, claims that during the 60's and 70's the KGB surveyed hundreds of potential targets across the US to knock out US power supplies in case of war, and in some cases hid explosives near potential targets. For example, explosives were supposedly buried near Hungry Horse dam on the south fork of the Flathead river in Montana that might still be there. The same thing was done in Europe. Reportedly European officials , following the directions in the Mitrokhin documents, discovered some boobytrapped caches arms, explosives and radio gear. Interesting, but not an entirely unexpected revelation of covert preparations for Cold War contingencies. (CBS 12 Sep 99) (courtesy Carl Griffith) (RoyJ)

HIGH-TECH CRIME LAB UNVEILED - - The Defense Department showed off its latest arsenal of high-tech crime-fighting tools Friday, a $15 million computer lab where it can trace hackers across the Internet, unscramble hidden files and rebuild smashed floppy disks that were cut in pieces. http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/09/biztech/articles/25crime-lab.htm=

From The Scout Report, Copyright Internet Scout Project 1994-1999. http://scout.cs.wisc.edu/ (El. Bancroft)

SECTION III BOOKS AND PUBLICATIONS NEWS AND REVIEWS

NEW WORLD COMING: American Security in the 21st Century - - The Commission on National Security in the 21st Century recently released a report from a Department of Defense-appointed panel led by former Senators Warren Rudman and Gary Hart. It predicts increasing American strategic vulnerability, especially to terrorist attack.

The United States Commission on National Security / 21st Century has been charged with examining and assessing post-Cold War defense requirements as part of the most comprehensive reassessment of US defense policy since 1947. This will be conducted in three phases: "the first to describe the world emerging in the first quarter of the next century, the second to design a national security strategy appropriate to that world, and the third to propose necessary changes to the national security structure in order to implement that strategy effectively." This report fulfills the first phase. Users can read a summary of the major themes in HTML format and the much larger supporting research and analysis in .pdf format. The Commission's home page also offers a debate forum and a collection of press clippings on the report. http://www.nssg.gov/Reports/New_World_Coming/new_world_coming= =2Ehtm Supporting Research and Analysis [.pdf, 146p.]http://www.nssg.gov/Reports/NWR

and http://www.nssg.gov/target=3D_top. (Elizabeth Bancroft)

CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 1999 - - The US Central Intelligence Agency has recently released the 1999 version of its well-known annual country information reference book (last described in the February 5, 1999 Scout Report). Data is available for more than 260 countries. For each country, map and flag, geographic, population, government, economic, communication, transportation, military, and transnational issue information is provided for the latest date available (January 1, 1999 in most cases). "Included among the 266 geographic listings is one for the 'World,' which includes data and other information summarized where possible from the other 265 listings." There are also eighteen reference maps in .pdf or .jpg format and eight appendices. Linked to from hundreds of sites, the World Factbook is widely recognized as one of the finest online resources for quick country information. http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

CIA AND THE VIETNAM POLICYMAKERS: THREE EPISODES 1962-1968, by Harold P. Ford, National Technical Information Service, 1999. Mr. Ford joined the Agency in 1951 and held high positions until his retirement in 1986. With consummate skill he describes the policy debates that cleaved Washington over how the war should be fought, and the gradual disillusionment of middle-level CIA officers that a military victory could be won. He does not spare CIA in his criticism, noting particularly how some ranking agency officers skewed estimates to tell president Johnson what he wished to hear.

The most interesting portion of the book deals with John McCone, CIA director from 1961 - 1965. McCone argued that, to be effective, harsh air strikes must be carried out against far more targets in North Vietnam than LBJ approved. Otherwise, McCone stated, troops would become "mired down in combat in the jungle in a military effort that we cannot win, and from which we will have extreme difficulty in extricating ourselves." Johnson had scant patience with persons who disagreed with him, and by the time McCone resigned, LBJ was "increasingly holding him at arms length."

Mr. Ford has an eye fro prescient memos. In 1963 a cabal of State Department officers led by undersecretary Averell Harriman plotted the overthrow of South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem. William Colby, then head of the clandestine services' Far East division, cautioned that the action "appears to be throwing away a bird in hand before we have adequately identified birds in bush, or songs they may sing." The coup nevertheless proceeded and Diem's overthrow and murder started a succession of swinging-door governments in Saigon. Recommended reading! (Reviewed by Joseph C. Goulden, W Times, 6 Jun99, p. B6)

SECTION IV BULLETIN BOARD

NOTICE- This WIN is sent late because of the workload generated by the Sympoisum / Convention.

ABA CONFERENCE - The American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National security will co-sponsor a conference on "National Security Law in a Changing World: the Ninth Annual Review of the =46ield," on October 28,29, Hotel Washington, 15th & Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington DC. Conference rate is $170. Call 202 662 1035 for agenda and a registration form, or check website at natsecurity@abanet.org. (RoyJ)

IN MEMORIAM - - Colonel William T. Hornaday II, a member of the OSS team that directed the French Resistance movement in WW II, member of the Indiana bar since 1932, former university professor (Indiana University) , former FBI (2 years) , CIA (12 years) and Army officer (30 years, including WWII), and longtime valued member of AFIO, died at the age of 89 on March 3, 1999 in Florida. He is survived by his wife of 63 years. We say farewell to a colleague who led a full life. (RoyJ)