WINs are commentaries on intelligence-related news items produced by Editor Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers.

This WIN has been prepared by WIN Associate Editor, Dr. John Macartney, jdmac@erols.com

WINs are protected by copyright laws and may not be disseminated without approval by the Editor.

ANNOUNCEMENT: AFIO LUNCHEON 13 September 1999 - Fort Myer, Virginia, 10:30 a.m. - 2 pm. See Bulletin Board, Section IV below.

ANNOUNCEMENT: AFIO National Symposium "Intelligence 2000" and the associated AFIO National Convention, 21-23 October '99 - see Bulletin Board, Section IV below.

ANOUNCEMENT - - VIRUS Warning - See Bulletin Board.

SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

CHINA: TAIWAN CRISIS, AGAIN. Chinese Embassy officials and visiting army officers and scholars have been telling US think tank experts in Washington that China is considering a new show of military force in reaction to Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui's recent assertion that Taiwan and China should be treated as equals. Meanwhile, a Beijing-backed Hong Kong newspaper reported in front-page headlines on August 13th that hostilities in the Taiwan Strait could erupt at any moment. Also, both China and Taiwan have launched propaganda type hacker attacks against each other's computer servers.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/13/030l-081399-idx.=html
http://www.news.com/News/Item/0,4,0-40316,00.html
http://www.insidechina.com/bulletin/bulletin.php3news.php3?id=3D85252&html=

CHINA: MISSILE EXPORTS, AGAIN. Washington Times reporter Bill Gertz reported on Aug 19 that leaked intelligence reports indicate missile technology is again being exported from China to Iran after repeated promises to the US that would not happen. (WTimes 19 Aug99)

CHINA: 1996 CAMPAIGN FINANCE SCANDAL. Former Democratic fund raiser Johnny Chung claims that Democratic congressional staffers coached him on taking the 5th amendment and otherwise discouraged his testimony during hearings in 1997. Chinese intelligence officers likewise urged Chung to take the 5th. Congressional Republicans meanwhile are investigating that and other matters of alleged Democratic witness tampering into charges that money from Chinese intelligence sources went into Democratic campaign coffers in 1996. The funding investigations have not turned up much evidence -- in part, perhaps, because 122 potential witnesses either fled the country or took the 5th. http://www.washtimes.com/index.html

CHINA: LOS ALAMOS ESPIONAGE? Robert Vrooman, a former CIA officer and the former counterintelligence chief at Los Alamos, has charged that there is no evidence whatsoever that nuclear secrets were stolen from Los Alamos rather than from any one of some 548 other US government organizations and contractors who possessed the information. =46urthermore, he says, the only reason scientist Wen Ho Lee was suspected in the case is his ethnicity -- that is, "racism."

In an Aug 19 interview on Fox News, Notra Trulock, former Dept of Energy intelligence chief disagreed with Vrooman's interpretation of events and pointed out that Vrooman (now retired, or fired) has come out with this only since he was named by Secretary Richardson as one of three individuals who would be disciplined because of the espionage case. Also, Trulock said that Lee was one of 12 Los Alamos employees (3 of them Chinese-Americans) on a list of suspects that DOE passed on to the FBI in 1995. Meanwhile, Edward Jay Epstein, writing in the Aug 19 Wall Street Journal opines that, because the way the US learned that China had acquired US nuclear secrets in the first place (through documents supplied to the CIA by a double agent under Chinese intelligence control), the whole episode may have been engineered by China to divert suspicion onto Los Alamos when the leak was elsewhere. The Wall Street Journal itself editorializes on Aug 19 that regardless of what Wen Ho Lee did or didn't do, the real problem was with Janet Reno's Justice Dept which denied an FBI request for a FISA warrant and with Reno herself who denied an extraordinary FBI appeal of that denial.

http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/081999china-nuke.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-08/19/000r-081999-idx.html=
http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB935017365243359440.htm
http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB935016998430848198.htm

CUBA SUED OVER SPY'S MARRIAGE. Cuban air force jet pilot, Juan Pablo Roque, defected to the US at Guantanamo in 1992, but he was actually a double agent. Sent by Castro to infiltrate Cuban-American exile groups, Roque became a pilot for Brothers to the Rescue as well as a paid informant for the FBI. As part of his cover he was very vocal about his anti-communism and married Ana Margarita Martinez, a Cuban-American anti-communist. The day before Cuban jets shot down two Brother's aircraft in 1995, killing 4 volunteers, Roque disappeared from Miami and resurfaced in Havana. Ms Martinez, who has since had her marriage annulled, is now suing the Cuban government for sexual battery (rape), saying she was tricked into sharing a bed with Mr Roque. (NY Times, 8/15/99, p12)

NAVY INTELLIGENCE OFFICER OUSTED. Lt Jack Daly, who suffered permanent eye damage from a laser while surveilling a Russian intelligence collector ship near Seattle in 1997, received his second promotion pass-over and will be forced out of the Navy. Daly has been highly critical of White House, State Dept and Navy handling of the incident in public statements and during Congressional testimony in February. (Wash Times, 8/19)

SECTION II CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY UPDATE. Walter Pincus and Vernon Loeb, both Washington Post reporters who follow intelligence matters, collaborated on an article, "Back Channels," in the August 9 Post. Among other things, they reported that the Dept of Energy's new security czar, retired AF general Eugene Habiger, was being accused by a (disgruntled?) Sandia Lab employee of exposing classified info in a recent speech. Also, they point out that there has been a "crescendo" of spy satellite imagery released by the Pentagon in recent months, primarily to illustrate the Kosovo bombing campaign. The released imagery has been intentionally "fuzzed" to about 1-meter resolution, the reporters say, to hide the KH-11's actual capabilities. Finally, the article notes that the CIA has formally challenged the authority of the ISCAP, the Interagency Security Classification Appeals Panel, which was formed in 1995 to speed the declassification process.

http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/09/054l-080999-idx.= html

FBI's "CLEAN" TEAM FOLLOWS WORK OF "DIRTY" INTELLIGENCE TEAM. An article in the August 16 Washington Post describes how the FBI deploys 2 teams to investigate terrorism and espionage cases. One team uses information that would not be admissible in court because it comes from sensitive intelligence sources or because it has been supplied by foreign police services whose methods of interrogation are suspect. A second team works in parallel to develop evidence that can ultimately be presented in a US courtroom. Members of the two teams avoid meeting with each other, but leads developed by the first team are checked by Justice Dept lawyers to insure they won't "taint" a case before they are passed on to the so-called "clean" team.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/16/057l-081699-idx.htm= l

HOW MUCH DOES IT COST TO BREAK CODES? (Netsurfer Digest, Vol. 05. #22) This engineering cost study examines how to build a code-breaking machine. The author, John Bazier, calculates, based on the recent DES code-breaker built by the EFF, what it would take to build a machine to decrypt certain codes with brute force. He concludes that for about $280 million -- almost certainly a high estimate - the NSA could build a machine which would break 72-bit ciphers in 15 hours on average, and 64-bit keys would take only four minutes. The study notes that just because such a machine could be built does not necessarily mean that the NSA would want to build it. Easier and more cost-effective ways of breaking such codes include spycraft and good old-fashioned cracking. Crypto-geeks will certainly appreciate the technical stuff, but anyone will benefit from this great example of how to do an economic analysis of a tech project.

http://jya.com/nsa-study.htm> http://jya.com/nsa-study.htm

INSECTS AS INTELLIGENCE AGENTS. The recent buzz about honeybees as flying mine detectors is just part of the story about how the Pentagon is trying to enlist diverse members of the zoological kingdom for military applications.

http://www.defenselink.mil/specials/bees/natures.html

TACTICAL UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE. A recent US Army request for contractors to submit proposals for sensors to equip a future reconnaissance TUAV provides of glimpse of future Techint. ".... The TUAV will operate in the 50-200 Km FLOT range. Payloads should be less than or equal to the TUAV platform's payload capability of 100 lbs. In accordance with the UAV Master Plan, desired modular mission payloads for UAVs include, but are not limited to: Communications/data relay; Communications intelligence intercept and direction finding; Communications and non-communications electronic attack; Electronic intelligence intercept, direction finding, and radar receiver warning; Electro-Optic/infrared; Laser designator/range finder; Meteorological; Minefield detection; Synthetic aperture radar/moving target indicator; Nuclear, biological and chemical sensors; Hyperspectral/multispectral imagery; and UAV decoys.

http://web.fie.com/htdoc/fed/dod/amy/any/proc/mti/08119905.htm Many other such solicitations can be found on DARPA's home page.

http://www.darpa.mil/baa/

CRYPTO BATTLE REACHING A CLIMAX. (ZDNet, 27 July 1999) Until recently, the struggle over US commercial encryption policy had been fought to a standstill. In July, two House Committees overhauled the Security and Freedom Through Encryption (SAFE) bill, which would have relaxed export controls on encryption. The House Armed Services Committee and the House Intelligence Committee approved revisions emphasizing their belief that encryption reform (looser export controls) would have "devastating" effects on law enforcement capabilities. Final consideration on SAFE is expected in September. But within the next month or two, it's likely the deadlock will be broken. According to a number of industry watchers, there's a strong chance the SAFE act could pass in September. At the same time, however, recent litigation ironically may leave the administration without any encryption regulations at all.

http://www.zdnet.com/sr/stories/infopack/0,5483,2303375,00.html
http://www.zdnet.com/sr/stories/infopack/0,5483,2303375,00.html

LETTER TO THE EDITOR. The August 1999 AFIO INTELLIGENCER newsletter carried a reprint of a spring WIN item I authored about MASINT, which prompted this letter from a reader. Mr. Macartney - Ref: Intelligencer article "WHAT IS MASINT? // MASINT". It was interesting "finally" reading about the fourth discipline of intelligence. Thanks. But, CMO is not "Central Masint Office". It is the Central MASINT Organization, currently headed by John Morris. It is a separate organization chartered by the DCI and under the daily management [i.e., "care and feeding"] of DIA, but not part of DIA. Just some clarification. Again, thanks for bringing MASINT "out of the cold". Sincerely, Jack L. Brunson

SECTION III - BOOKS AND OTHER SOURCES.

MILITARY GOES BY THE BOOK, BUT IT'S A NOVEL. In a profession whose leaders are known for their devotion to the works of military strategists like Carl von Clausewitz and Sun Tsu, the officers of the US Army and the Marine Corps have quietly chosen a romantic war novel. "ONCE AN EAGLE," by Anton Myrer, has worked its way over a generation into the mindset and lexicon of the American military, flourishing as a cult classic even as it withered out of print. When it was first published in 1968, the epic story of an Army officer as honorable as Robin Hood pitted against a fellow officer as self-serving as Prince John became an improbable best seller during the upheaval of those times, its 800 pages tracing the story of the US Army from World War I to the early years of Vietnam. The book sold millions of copies and has recently been brought back into print.(NY Times, 8/16/99)

John Knaus, ORPHANS OF THE COLD WAR: America and the Tibetan Struggle for Survival, Public Affairs Press, 1999, 184pp. The next issue of AFIO's INTELLIGENCER newsletter will carry Joe Goulden's review of this book by a fellow AFIO member which ran in the August 8 Washington Times. Meanwhile, some excerpts: "On the practical level, according to agency veteran [and AFIO Member] Samuel Halpern, who served as FitzGerald's executive officer, 'The primary objective had little to do with aiding the Tibetans. It was to impede and harass the Chinese Communists.' In terms of political warfare, the effort succeeded. China's posturing as a champion of "peaceful coexistence" self-determination for the Third World was exposed as hypocritical blather, and four decades later the Dali Lama remains a potent symbol of anti-communism." .... "Inevitably, superior Chinese military ground down the resistance, and the guerrilla war ended with many of the Tibetans dead. Knaus interviewed many of the survivors for his book; to a man, they praise the United States for coming to their aid." [NOTE: Author Knaus, an AFIO member, will speak at AFIO's Sept 13 luncheon at the Ft Myer, Virginia O'Club.] http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1891620185/o/qid=3D93483515= 4/sr=3D8-1/002-8191849-4081451

ART HULNICK BOOK. AFIO Member and former CIA DO officer, Art Hulnick, is writing a new book, FIXING THE SPY MACHINE: PREPARING AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE FOR THE 21st CENTURY, which will be published by the Praeger Division of Greenwood Press in December. Art has been teaching at Boston University since his retirement and has published a number of excellent articles in the IJICI, so this should be an important book, well suited for use as a college text.

http://info.greenwood.com/books/0275966/0275966526.html

TAFT BRIDGE LIONS. If you live or have lived in the DC area, you may be interested in the Taft Bridge lions that have been "missing" for some 5 years but are scheduled to be returned sometime next year.

http://www.freethelions.org/> http://www.freethelions.org/

SECTION IV -- BULLETIN BOARD

AFIO FALL LUNCHEON, Monday, Sept 13, 1030 - 1400 hrs, Fort Myer, Va. - - - Two outstanding speakers:

At 11 a.m., Rick Francona, retired intelligence officer, point man for US covert assistance to Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war, former Air attach=E9 to Damascus, and interpreter for General Schwarzkopf during the Gulf War, will speak on intelligence and policy issues concerning Iraq's transition from ally to adversary.

LUNCH 12:00 - 13:00

At 1300, Kenneth Knaus, who spent four decades as an operations officer in CIA, will speak on his participation in the planning, directing and execution of America's covert attempts to aid Tibetan resistance.

This luncheon occasion again promises to be an exceptionally interesting event. Introduce AFIO to a guest -- members and their guests $26, others welcome at $29. Send check to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.

AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM AND CONVENTION 21-23 OCTOBER 1999.

The AFIO National Symposium, INTELLIGENCE 2000, will start on Thursday 21 October with presentations 12:30 until 4 pm at the Marriott Hotel at Tysons Corner, Virginia, and continuing on Friday 22 October, hosted by the Honorable Keith Hall, Director NRO, at the NRO facility in Chantilly, Virginia from 0800 until 1700 hrs.

A stellar cast of speakers has been invited to participate in the "Intelligence 2000" symposium, including, beside the host, the Hon. Keith Hall, (in alphabetic order):

Mr. Lee Hamilton, Director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars;

Mr Jeffrey Harris, former Director NRO and President of Space Imaging, Inc.;

Lieutenant General Patrick Hughes, USA, former Director DIA;

Mr. Richard Kerr, former Deputy DCI;

the Honorable Warren Rudman, Chairman of the President's Foreign Advisory Board;

the Hon. Ted Stevens, US Senator and Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee; Colonel Richard Stotts, Commander of the USAF Information Warfare Center;

and the Honorable George Tenet, Director of Central Intelligence.

or information concerning the Symposium or the Agenda, contact Symposium Chairman RADM (ret) Don McDowell. donmcdo@aol.com , or the AFIO Executive Director, Roy Jonkers afio@afio.com.

The AFIO National CONVENTION will convene in the Tysons Marriott Hotel on Thursday at 4 pm with a General Membership meeting, and continue with a reception and cocktail hour, followed by the Awards Banquet (three course dinnner, music, awards to an outstanding media representative and to a book author, as well as to exceptional AFIO members, and with a distinguished speaker) on Thursday evening.

Special tours may be arranged on Friday, and conferences with Board and Chapter members will continue on Saturday morning.

Programs and full information will be mailed out shortly and also provided via email (afio@afio.com)

NOTE: For out-of-town members and guests, arrangements for lodging may be made with the Tysons Corner Marriott hotel.

NOTE: To qualify for the SPECIAL RATE of $84 per night (good for Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights only) you MUST mention ASSOCIATION OF FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS.

Early hotel reservations are recommended (soonest), as the Marriott is expected to fill rapidly and early due to other events in the area.

Call hotel at 703 734 3200 (fax 703 442 9301) or 1 800 228 9290.

VIRUS WARNING - Do not open mail from us or anyone else you know (or don't know) that has an executable file titled "Happy 99" - - it is a trojan horse that will require you to call your technical support in order to eradicate it. It is insidious as once it is in your computer it send itself with your address to anyone you email. If you open it (because it comes from a known friend, for example), you will see a harmless display of fireworks, but that is only the beginning. You will begin to experience problems emailing , and your browser will shut down without warning saying that you "performed an illegal operation." Please delete the message - before opening it - immediately , and then empty the trash. Otherwise you will have to spend time on the phone with your customer support. (courtesy JTStrong)

EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE -- Part-time or fulltime job opportunities available for trained intelligence analysts working from home. Immediate job openings for Open Source analysts to cover Southeast Asia, Terrorism and CRBN on a daily basis. Only Former or Retired intelligence professionals are eligible - no active service personnel. Individuals in UK, Australia and NZ may also apply . Interested individuals may email their resume to bear@oss.net and reference AFIO Ref File #E-16.

ANNOUNCEMENT: We welcome new member cum WIN reader #1040, John Roberts IV, and we thank his sponsor, William Billingsley, who will receive a book as a small token of appreciation.

Our thanks also goes out to the other AFIO members who sponsored new members who will be WIN readers #1031 - 1039. With your support AFIO will remain a vibrant and dynamic organization!

WINs are now sent to over 1,060 of our AFIO members and subscribers. We still need 36 more new members in August to reach our new member goal of 1,100 WIN readers by the end of the month. Our goal can only be reached with your help and participation!

EVERY MEMBER SPONSOR A NEW MEMBER !

How?

Talk to friends, acquaintances, civic association members. If they are US citizens and agree with our objectives, they are eligible to become associate members, with all privileges and rights ( except only the vote for members of the Board of Directors). Associate members may hold office in the association at AFIO Chapters or AFIO National.

And also, of course, talk to your colleagues formerly or currently in the profession, who are eligible for membership! There are thousands and thousands of former Government Agency and Departmental Intelligence, CI, Special Ops and Security personnel out there who would be most welcome as members.

Let us know to whom we can send a membership application. If a gift, you may fill out the membership application, and we will send the recipient a membership along with a card announcing your gift.

If you need membership brochures to hand out, let us know.

You know where to find us - email afio@afio.com, - - or tel 703-790-0320.

or - - - AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533 (Mrs Gretchen Campbell)