AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #42-21 dated 16 November 2021
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CONTENTS Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS
Section II - IC PODCASTS, COMMENTARY, BLOG UPDATES
Section III - BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION BY MEMBERS
Section IV - Books, Research Requests, Jobs, Obituaries Books — Newly Released, Overlooked, Forthcoming
Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others
For additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events
Details
on the Virtual Education Programs of the National Cryptologic
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Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS The U.S. Advantage in Intelligence may not be the Superpower you think it is by David Charney M.D. in The Cipher Brief World conditions are increasingly difficult. China heads everyone's list as the most formidable of our four main antagonists for many reasons—but especially intimidating is China's sheer population size—over four times greater than our own. That means China's pool of the best and brightest from which all intelligence agencies wish to draw their workforce is correspondingly four times larger. If size matters and it's partly a numbers game, things can begin to look bleak. This disparity struck me last month, while attending the Cipher Brief Threat Conference. As a professional psychiatrist with expertise working with former insider spies (to include Robert Hanssen), I have attended countless lectures, events, and conferences both as a member of the audience and as a speaker, to learn more about the workings of the IC, pass along my findings, and network within the community. I was accustomed to seeing my fellow attendees and presenters as being almost exclusively men, most graying at the temples. Opinion by Charney M.D. at The Cipher Brief continues here Norwegian Undersea Surveillance Network Had Its Cables Mysteriously Cut by Thomas Newdick, 11 November 2021 in TheDrive Undersea sensors off the coast of northern Norway that are able to collect data about passing submarines, among other things, have been knocked out, the country's state-operated Institute of Marine Research, or IMR, has revealed. The cause of the damage is unknown, but the cables linking the sensor nodes to control stations ashore are said to have been cut and then disappeared. This has raised suspicions about deliberate sabotage, possibly carried out by the Russian government, which definitely has the means to do so. The IMR, one of the biggest marine research institutes in Europe, described "extensive damage" to the outer areas of the Lofoten-Vesterålen (LoVe) Ocean Observatory, putting the system offline. LoVe, which was only declared fully operational in August 2020, consists of a network of underwater cables and sensors located on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, an area of strategic interest for both Norway and Russia. Article continues here Turkish Court Arrests Israeli Couple on Espionage Charges An Israeli couple and a Turkish national were arrested Friday on espionage charges after being detained for taking pictures of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's residence from a tower in Istanbul. The three face charges of political and military espionage, according to Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency. Israel's foreign ministry refuted the claims and said the couple "do not work for any Israeli agency." Ties between Israel and Turkey, once close military allies, remain frayed. Ankara is critical of Israel's policies toward the Palestinians, while Israel charges Turkey with supporting Hamas, the Islamic militant group that rules the Gaza Strip. Last month, Turkey reportedly detained 15 people for allegedly spying on behalf of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency. Bloomberg article continues here Also see AP account in WPost "Israeli couple arrested in Turkey on espionage charges" here Arrest of Steele dossier source forces some news outlets to reexamine their coverage by
David Folkenflik in NPR Also see The Economist: John Durham's indictments reflect poorly on the American media The Steele Dossier Indicted the Media FURTHER READING"Adam Schiff defends Christopher Steele dossier on Trump-Russia connections saying top line was 'all too true'" (The Independent) Section II - IC PODCASTS, COMMENTARY, BLOG UPDATES Intelligence Matters: A CBS News original
national security podcast hosted by former CIA acting director
and CBS News national security contributor Michael Morell. Morell is crisp, precise, cautious, fair, avoids
political slant, and provides remarkable insights. Not to miss. Nov 10 | Former Defense Secretary and CIA Director Leon Panetta on Top Security Threats More about Intelligence Matters by Michael Morell here. Podcasts also available here. Cyberblog
by Steptoe & Johnson LLP — By Stewart Baker on 15 Nov 2021 Some Prior Conversations: The Arkin Group's Nov 12 "In Other News" letter to private clients by former Deputy Director, Operations Officer Jack Devine features...
Follow link here to read analyses and predictions given to their private clients on the topics above. Just released 8 November 2021: "A Spymaster and a Gentleman, Jack Devine Dispels CIA Myth and Dispenses his Truth" on The Live Drop, Episode 56. "A wonderful discussion with an experienced spymaster himself who's knowledge of intelligence history drives vivid and prescient insights from the past into the future. Jack dispels some persistently inaccurate mythology, and also clarifies why code phrases need not be improvised." Jack Devine's Spymaster's Prism was released earlier this year. The book has just been released on audio from Tantor or Amazon. AFIO's interview with him about this book appears at this link. Or hear the podcast here. Nov 17: "The CIA Swamp in a Novel Nutshell" by Peter Eisner Nov 14: "Biden May Up Ukraine Intelligence-Sharing" by Jonathan Broder Nov 13: "Updated: Steele Dossier in Tatters" by Jeff Stein Nov 9: "'I Was Molly Hale'—The CIA Man Behind the Mask" by Jay Krasnow Nov 6: "Israel's Fingers in Sudan" by Jonathan Broder Oct 31: "Appeal for CIA, DoD Clandestine Ops to Rescue Afghan Allies" by Jeff Stein Readers, for a brief time, can subscribe for free for articles and weekend podcasts here. Border being weaponized, more from Inside the SCIF Inside
the SCIF by JJ Green, WTOP -
Issue #138, 11 Nov has details on... Veteran's Day comments; Belarus Weaponizing Migrants on Polish Border; China/US Seek Emissions Cuts; Biden Admin Closer to IDing Havana Syndrome Source; U.S. Figures involved with Russian Intel Ops under microscope; Assessment Near-Assassination of Iraq PM; Russian Diplomat Who Died at Berlin Embassy son of FSB's Gen Alexey Zhalo; Bank Fraud "Smishing" using SMS text messages; Drone in Pennsylvania attempted "shock & awe" style power outage using filaments; Russian Troop Movements at Ukraine Border Suggest Wider Conflict Coming; France Concerned about Russia's W Africa activities; and more. Section III - BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION BY MEMBERS The Mysteries of Havana Syndrome - a presentation by The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was held today, 16 November 2021. More about that conference: It sure sounds like the logline for a Hollywood thriller. In late 2016, U.S. Embassy personnel in Havana, Cuba, began to report an unusual, perplexing set of symptoms. Loud noises accompanied by pain, pressure, or vibration. Dizziness, vertigo, and cognitive difficulties. Then personnel in the U.S. Consultate in Guangzhou, China, started complaining of similar symptoms. But this is not fiction. Indeed, as many as 200 people have experienced what has come to be known as Havana Syndrome. About half of them are CIA agents or their families, with the other half split between Departments of Defense and State employees. Today, many of them continue to suffer from health problems and the phenomenon appears to be spreading with new cases coming in from U.S. diplomatic sites around the globe. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain these clinical cases, but evidence is lacking and nothing has been proven. Given this lack of clarity, the U.S. government asked the National Academies to convene an expert panel to review the scientific evidence in support of the possible causes and provide advice on how to proceed with the official investigation. Join us for an intriguing conversation between the chair of that committee, Dr. David Relman, and writer/executive producer David Grae, as they review what we know—and what we don't—about the mysteries of Havana Syndrome. The recording of this event will appear in a few days here. Advising both Chinese state companies and the Pentagon, McKinsey & Co. comes under scrutiny - NBC News The Growing Crisis of Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing - by Peter Oleson, Conference Report and Videos A recent conference, in which Pacific Forum joined the Navy League's Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Exchange (IMSE), the East-West Center, and the Daniel K. Inouye Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies, focused on the problems of IUU fishing and potential solutions to counter its recent dramatic growth. Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing has become a major problem worldwide and particularly in the Pacific. According to the US Coast Guard, "IUU fishing has replaced piracy as the leading global maritime security threat. If IUU fishing continues unchecked, we can expect deterioration of fragile coastal States and increased tension among foreign-fishing Nations, threatening geo-political stability around the world." There are many aspects to the problem. • Illegal fishing is conducted in waters under the jurisdiction of a state but without the permission of that state. • Unreported fishing involves a catch that has not been reported, as required. • Unregulated fishing occurs where there are no management measures and is conducted in a manner inconsistent with treaty responsibilities. Conference Proceedings here. Session videos here. Conference report in Seapower Magazine See Oleson summary here Executive Decision-Making Using Intelligence - By Matthew Lehman, Ph.D., FBI The evolving climate of crime and other public safety issues presents law enforcement executives with a level of persistent uncertainty that pushes decision-making to an unprecedented level of complexity. Demand to operate at a high cognitive level is most relevant in the current environment, where there are more complex issues, compressed budgets (requiring creative solutions), and rapid changes in technology used in investigations. Usually, decision-making is considered a dynamic process, influenced by factors that lead to massive difficulties. This is compounded for law enforcement administrators during critical incidents and rapidly evolving situations where there is a requirement and an expectation to make the right decisions. Integrating intelligence analysis into an agency's administration can help solve this issue. Article continues here Ever wonder whether your neighbor is living a double life? by Isabelle Lee, OZY A friend's father used to tell us about being headhunted by the CIA. He said he declined the offer, but that didn't stop us from speculating he was an international man of mystery, working undercover as a suburban dad. If you fancy yourself a spy enthusiast, join us for this not-so-clandestine peek at modern-day spycraft. You've all heard of the Mossad, but here are some other terror-inducing agencies you should know about, plus a roundup of women leading from the shadows and a look at the new frontiers for 21st century spooks. With the new James Bond movie out now, if you're anything like me, your curiosity has been piqued by the life of a spy. Today's Daily Dose answers all your questions about the world of espionage. --Based on Reporting by Isabelle Lee OZY Daily Dose Newsletter continues here GIFT Ideas — Holiday Buyer's Extravaganza for FANS of CIA Technology Artemus Consulting's latest newsletter: Some time ago, we promised to bring you an issue that showcases the books that you, our FANs, have written. We said that this "Holiday Buyer's Extravaganza" would be one that our FANs can use to buy those books. Well, here we are. Be- cause of your many submissions, we have a "FANs Weekly Summary" that will hopefully be the model for an annual issue. So, from us here at Artemus Central, we thank you all so very deeply! We hope that you find one or more books that you'd like to purchase for yourself, for your friends, or for your family. This is one amazing compendium of awesome writing! To see all the recommended books, view the issue here James Bond creator's cufflinks have a hidden code by Mark Lungariello, 15 Nov 2021, NYPost. A set of cufflinks once owned by James Bond's creator has left would-be code crackers shaken, not stirred. Author Ian Fleming allegedly wore the cufflinks with a strange arrangement of letters to the premiere of the first 007 movie, "Dr. No," in 1962 – but no one's sure what the letters mean, auctioneer Mallams says. The enigmatic cufflinks go for sale in the UK on Wednesday. The cufflinks have the letters 'WUS', 'SIL', 'UDH' and 'NUF' on the opposite sides. [See image in article]. NYPost article continues here Section IV - Books, Research Requests, Jobs, Obituaries Books — Newly Released, Overlooked, Forthcoming Watching Darkness Fall: FDR, His Ambassadors, and the Rise of Adolf Hitler As danger races toward you, will you -- or your advisors -- know what to do? A gripping and groundbreaking account of how all but one of FDR's ambassadors in Europe misjudged Hitler and his intentions. As German tanks rolled toward Paris in late May 1940, the U.S. Ambassador to France, William Bullitt, was determined to stay put, holed up in the Chateau St. Firmin in Chantilly, his country residence. Bullitt told the president that he would neither evacuate the embassy nor his chateau, an eighteenth Renaissance manse with a wine cellar of over 18,000 bottles, even though "we have only two revolvers in this entire mission with only forty bullets." As German forces closed in on the French capital, Bullitt wrote the president, "In case I should get blown up before I see you again, I want you to know that it has been marvelous to work for you." [It was the wine talking.] Book may be ordered here. American Kleptocracy: How the U.S. Created the World's Greatest Money Laundering Scheme in History A revealing look at the web of financial chicanery that puts the U.S. at the head of places in which to hide ill-gotten gains. America built the largest illicit offshore finance system the world has ever known. For years, one country has acted as the greatest offshore haven in the world, attracting hundreds of billions of dollars, and potentially more, in illicit finance tied directly to corrupt regimes, extremist networks, and the worst the world has to offer. But it hasn't been the sleepy, sand-splattered Caribbean islands, or even traditional financial secrecy havens like Switzerland or Panama, that have come to dominate the offshoring world. Instead, the country profiting the most from modern offshoring also happens to be the one that still claims to be the moral leader of the free world, and the one that claims to be leading the fight against the crooked and the corrupt: the United States of America. Book may be ordered here. The Next Apocalypse: The Art and Science of Survival How to handle the collapse of civilization. Pandemic, climate change, or war: our era is ripe with the odor of doomsday. In movies, books, and more, our imaginations run wild with visions of dreadful, abandoned cities and returning to the land in a desperate attempt at survival. Archaeologist Chris Begley argues that we completely misunderstand how disaster works. Examining past collapses of civilizations, such as the Maya and Rome, he argues that these breakdowns are actually less about cataclysmic destruction than they are about long processes of change. In short: it's what happens after the initial uproar that matters. Some people abandon their homes and neighbors; others band together to start anew. As we anticipate our own fate, Begley tells us that it was communities, not lone heroes, who survived past apocalypses—and who will survive the next. Fusing archaeology, survivalism, and social criticism, this is an essential read for anxious, discordant times. Book may be ordered here. Seeking U.S. Women Intelligence Officers who served in Germany at some time between 1950 to 1990 I am a journalist for DER SPIEGEL, the biggest politicial news magazine in Germany. My name is Max Fratoddi, a retired FBI FCI/CT Agent (and USMC RVN veteran) who worked with many USIC members over my 25 year career. I am a long term member of AFIO, originally sponsored by the beloved CIA OPs Officer Jack Platt (RIP). More recently, I spent some 6 1/2 years in Afghanistan as a (rotating) contractor mentor to Afghans serving in a unique joint training command under specialized government-to-government MOUs. Some 100 of them (not including families) were left behind with our hasty departure. "Rafiq - Friends of Afghans" was formed in early August by a number of retired intell community, law enforcement, and military SpOps personnel with many years of experience in working directly with various Afghan National Security Forces personnel. Compared to the many other organizations with similar interests, we are a low-key, non-profit organization whose mission is to quietly support the departure, rehabilitation, and resettlement of our former colleagues to the U.S. I welcome a discussion to determine if there are legitimate collaboration, coordination, and cooperation opportunities with our membership. I can be reached at gmfratoddi@yahoo.com or at 843-540-2026. This request does not constitute an official endorsement by AFIO or any U.S. government agency. Thanks for your interest and support. My name is Hadar Gat, I'm a journalist from Israel, currently
working on the second season of a documentary series about the
most influential Arab leaders in the middle east. Counter Intelligence SME Contract work at the Wright Patterson AFB, Dayton Ohio on the China Counterespionage & Technology Transfer section, China Technology Transfer Unit (CTT2/CTTU), Counterespionage SME (REDEYE task force). The FBI is looking for Counterintelligence SME to support the FBI Counterintelligence Foreign Investment Unit (FIU). The FBI is looking for Counterintelligence Training SME to support the FBI Counterintelligence Training Center (CITC). CITC is tasked with training field agents, supervisors and non-agent personnel in CI investigation. The FBI is seeking an Counterintelligence SME with extensive knowledge in the East Asia region. TO APPLY OR EXPLORE any of the above: contact Jessica Lewis, Jessica.Lewis@chenega.com for additional information. Scientific and Technical Intelligence Liaison Officer (STILO) with JHU/APL - Laurel, Maryland Are you seeking an opportunity to learn about foreign weapons systems? Do you take pride in your expert knowledge of adversary capabilities? If so, we're looking for someone like you to join our team at APL. We are seeking an Assistant Scientific and Technical Intelligence Liaison Officer (Assistant STILO) to help us to inform APL's research and development of sensitive technologies for the U.S. Government. You will assist the Scientific and Technical Intelligence Liaison Officer (STILO) in the National Security Analysis Department (NSAD). This position is designed for a creative, dynamic individual who fosters excellence and innovation, who has a passion for research, and effectively partners to ensure systems developed by APL for the U.S. Government are capable of addressing the most stressing future threats. This position provides strategic, forward leaning intelligence to lead APL and our sponsors to understand the threat environment; and the integration of threat analysis into current and future technology development, studies, and operational analyses. More about this position is here. Position Type Instructional Faculty -
Full Time Dick Dubreuil, CIA Operation Officer Art Lindberg, Naval Intelligence Officer, AFIO New England Chapter President Mark Riley, Army and DIA Intelligence Officer, National Security Lawyer AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS.... The "Andre Le Gallo" San Francisco Chapter hosts James L.
Aynesworth, Captain, U.S. Navy Reserve (ret);
President, Trident Information Services International on "Movement
of International Containerized Cargo: Intelligence Challenges." The AFIO Atlanta Chapter is featuring former DIA analyst Rebekah Koffler, author of Putin's Playbook: Russia's Secret Plan to Defeat America (2021), on Russian grand strategy and Putin's long-term plans. Our last holiday event was December 2019, two long years ago. We are returning to the Los Prados Country Club for a full Christmas Buffet. And we have a special guest speaker, Rev Curt Williams, to present an uplifting message on Patriotism. As at past parties, we will have a raffle for a beautiful Christmas Basket. AFIO Atlanta Chapter invites all AFIO members and friends to join us at our annual Christmas party and celebration of James Jesus Angleton's Birthday. Our special guest speaker is former Department of Defense Special Agent Kevin Bryant, who will speak on his forthcoming book Spies on the Sidelines: The High-Stakes World of NFL Espionage (Rowman & Littlefield July 2022). Not only does his non-fiction book contain the largest collection of football-related spy stories ever assembled, but also it's the first to explore the full arsenal of methods teams use to spy on their opponents and the countermeasures used to deter them. Spanning across all teams and eras, Bryant shines a light on the shady world of NFL espionage—from clandestine photography and hidden draft prospects to listening devices and stolen documents—along with the permissible, if sometimes questionable, spy techniques teams use day in and day out to gain an advantage over their opponents. Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others The White House Office of the National Cyber Director is only a few months old but faces immense challenges. Still staffing up and only now receiving funding in the just-passed infrastructure bill, the threats the office was established to protect the nation from are metastasizing. What is the nature of these cyber threats? What is the new office's role in safeguarding us from them? What are the biggest obstacles to accomplishing that mission? How will it interact with other major U.S. cyber players? Join us for an online discussion of the latest intelligence, national security, and terrorism issues in the news with Spy Museum Executive Director Chris Costa. He will be joined by Javed Ali, former Senior Director for Counterterrorism, National Security Council. The International Spy Museum is pleased to offer a sensory friendly community program designed for families who have an autistic child or an individual with sensory processing differences. On this special access day, the Museum has set private hours (8am—10am) so families can enjoy an exclusive visit with less noise, fewer people, and designated quiet rooms. This event is FREE but advance registration required! We Know Quite a Bit About The Politics, Diplomacy, Espionage, and Military Actions of the Early Cold War. But How and Why Did the Post-WWII Climate Move From Freedom as Anti-Communism and Anti-Ideology to Freedom as Jean-Paul Sartre, Rock 'n Roll, the Beatles, and Tie-Dyes? The future of U.S.-China relations is the most important geopolitical issue facing American policymakers today. Is conflict inevitable between a declining superpower in the United States and a rising one in China? Or has China's power peaked? If it has, does that make Beijing more or less dangerous? What if Beijing's approach is more cautious than its actions sometimes appear? Could responses to what seem like provocations raise the risk of conflict? The Spy Museum offers an evening of intrigue for
the 2021 Webster Distinguished Service Award event. The award is
an opportunity to recognize the extraordinary contributions of
individuals in the Intelligence Community. This year's awardee is The Honorable Susan M. Gordon, former principal
deputy director of national intelligence. Previous recipients of
the Webster Distinguished Service Award include President George
H. W. Bush (2017), Admiral William H. McRaven, USN (Ret.) (2018),
and Gen. Michael V. Hayden (Ret.) (2019). Webster attendee and
sponsor support fuels the nonprofit mission of educating the
public about the history and craft of espionage and intelligence
through youth and adult programs, community service, and the care
of the Museum's unique collection of artifacts for generations to
come. TOPIC: Senior Enlisted Perspectives on the Intelligence Specialist Rating Sunday, 5 December 2021, 5 - 9 pm EST - Ashburn, VA - CIRA 2021 National Dinner Join your CIRA colleagues as they recognize two Salvetti Award winners and also hear from a Senior Agency Officer on an important topic.Details, location, dinner fee available at www.cira.org In addition to the Royal Blue long sleeve shirts and gray long sleeve hoodies, the AFIO Store has the following items ready for quick shipment: LONG Sleeved Shirts with embroidered AFIO Logo and Mugs with color-glazed permanent logo Show
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sold out in hard-copy. Disclaimers and Removal Instructions Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced for non-profit educational uses by members and WIN subscribers. REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs: a) IF YOU ARE A MEMBER - click here: UNSUBSCRIBE and supply your full name and email address where you receive the WINs. Click SEND, you will be removed from list. If this link doesn't open a blank email, create one on your own and send to afio@afio.com with the words: REMOVE FROM WINs as the subject, and provide your full name and email address where you are currently receiving them. b) IF YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER, and you received this message, someone forwarded this newsletter to you [contrary to AFIO policies]. Forward to afio@afio.com the entire WIN or message you received and we will remove the sender from our membership and distribution lists. The problem will be solved for both of us. CONTENTS of this WIN [HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents. This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition or for some AOL recipients]. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. The HTML feature also does not work for those who access their e-mail using web mail...however NON-HTML recipients may view the latest edition each week in HTML at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor's or author's listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at www.afio.com for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications and much more! (c) 1998 thru 2021. AFIO, 7600 Leesburg Pike, Suite 470 East, Falls Church, VA 22043-2004. Voice: (703) 790-0320; Fax: (703) 991-1278; Email: afio@afio.com About AFIO | Membership Renewal | Change of Address | Upcoming Events | Chapter Locations | Corporate/Institutional Memberships | Careers in Intelligence Booklet | Guide to the Study of Intelligence | Intelligencer Journal | Weekly Intelligence Notes | To Make A Donation | AFIO Store | Member-Only Section | Code of Ethics | Home Page |
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