AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors: pjk, mh, km, gh, mk, rd, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.

CAVEATS: IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse research inquiries, career announcements, or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding, and should verify the source independently before supplying any resume, career data, or personal information.]
If you are having difficulties with the links or viewing this newsletter when it arrives by email, members may view the latest edition each week at this link. You will need your LOGIN NAME and your PASSWORD.

Miscalculations could lead to disastrous war with North Korea
by Peter Oleson
[Editor - AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence]

Letter to the Editor / Honolulu Star-Advertiser
Click image for PDF of article or use this link to read on PressReader.

VOTE NOW FOR AFIO BOARD

AFIO National Board Elections are open for terms running 2018 thru 2021.
The list of candidates and re-nominations and their bios appear on online ballot accessed at link below.
Current members are asked to cast votes securely online now.

Vote Here

Election closes 11:59 pm EST 15 February 2018

First luncheon of 2018 Friday, 9 February 2018 Tysons, VA

Toni Hiley, CIA Museum Director Center for the Study of Intelligence
and
Steve Coll, author/journalist on his reviewer-praised forthcoming book debuting at event
	DIRECTORATE S: The CIA and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016

Register here.

Books of the Week

Dark Beyond Darkness: The Cuban Missile Crisis as History, Warning, and Catalyst
by James G. Blight and Janet M. Lang
(Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Dec 2017)

Blight and Lang, married scholars at the University of Waterloo [UK], use the Cuban missile crisis as a case study in developing a long argument against nuclear weapons. The authors, decades-long advocates of nuclear disarmament, advance their premise here by presenting the US-Soviet crisis over missiles in Cuba from the perspective of the Cuban government. They argue that the Cuban leadership's role in the crisis has been underappreciated and that Cuban leadership was very willing to sacrifice Cuba to provoke a nuclear exchange between the US and the USSR It is an interesting thesis.... [T]his book will be of interest to those drawn to the anti-nuclear movement and those looking for an uncommon viewpoint on the event. (Publishers Weekly).
Book may be ordered here.

U.S. Counterterrorism: From Nixon to Trump – Key Challenges, Issues, and Responses
by Michael B. Kraft and Edward Marks
(CRC Press, Dec 2017)

Examines the "war on modern terrorism," from Nixon administration to early stages of the Trump administration. Describes the evolution of U.S. counterterrorism responses to the changing terrorist threats, from primarily secular groups, to those with broad-reaching fundamentalist religious goals such as ISIS. The authors highlight the accelerating rate of changes in the terrorism situation from modern technology; the internet, "lone wolf" terrorists, cyber threats, and armed drones.

The book describes the Bush Administration's dealing with terrorism as an existential threat and a Global War on Terrorism following 9/11. It then discusses how the Obama administration both continued and modified previous policies. Provides extensive list of key documents for those interested in the original texts and a discussion of legal issues.

Book may be ordered here.

2018 CIA-themed Wall Calendars and Day Planners
are now available through the International Spy Museum Bookshop.

To quickly order or learn more about the 2018 CIA wall calendars or day planners use this link.

The mastermind behind the calendar and day planner project is a private citizen who runs CIA-ART.com. He worked with the curator of the CIA Museum, as he conceived and developed a collection of fine art depicting declassified missions. He arranged for independent, private artists and funded the project through private individuals and corporations willing to commission the artwor which tells the history of daring CIA missions. The final works of art were donated to CIA Headquarters where they are on permanent display.

Based on those works of art, Mr. Kirzinger created these large, nicely-printed CIA-themed wall calendars and day planners providing the background of the operations, and also filled with other images and explanations of historic documents and the outcomes of the operations.
Inspiration to have on your wall or desk top. And ideal gifts to send colleagues, friends, and others.

To order or learn more about the 2018 CIA wall calendars and day planners use this link.

To learn more about the creation of the calendars and day planners visit...www.cia-art.com

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

U.S. Ready to Help Ukraine Create Financial Intelligence Service. FinCEN Deputy Director Jamal El-Hindi said this at a meeting with Ukrainian Finance Minister Oleksandr Danyliuk in the United States, the press service of the Ukrainian Finance Ministry reported.

El-Hindi said that FinCEN was pleased with cooperation with Ukraine, in particular, with the State Financial Monitoring Service.

He also added that he would actively monitor the process of setting up the Financial Intelligence Service in Ukraine, the only body to combat financial crimes against the state.

"Special attention was paid to FIS interaction with other state bodies, in particular, with the State Financial Monitoring Service, in order to ensure an effective investigation process," the report says. [Read More: ukrinform/15Jan2018]

Interview: Former British Intelligence Director Calls for Enforced Rules in Cyberspace. The Internet "cannot be a values-free area" and the government needs to closely collaborate with tech companies to counter online illegality and ensure cyber security, said Robert Hannigan, former director of Britain's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ).

The Internet was a brilliant invention, but it "cannot be an area where illegality is allowed to simply exist in a way that it wouldn't be in the real world," said Hannigan, also a columnist for the Financial Times, who stepped down from Britain's intelligence agency GCHQ last January.

According to a survey of more than 3,000 professionals in Britain, Germany and the United States, 57 percent of firms in these countries have experienced at least one cyber attack in 2016 with an average cost of 102,000 U.S. dollars for large companies and 22,000 dollars for small ones.

The costs of cyber attacks are rising, and public awareness -- especially among small businesses -- is still falling short in this regard, said Hannigan, special advisor on cyber security for Hiscox, an underwriter at the Lloyd's of London insurance market. [Read More: Jing, Jiawei/xinhuanet/11Jan2018]

SpaceX Launched a Spy Satellite Sunday. It May Have Failed. What Happens Now? SpaceX is denying it played any part in the apparent failure of an expensive, mysterious government satellite system that launched Sunday.

The so-called Zuma satellite lifted off aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Sunday night. Little is known about Zuma, including the government agency who purchased the satellite or its mission, although it commonly has been referred to as a "spy satellite" in reports. The newspaper Florida Today reported that amateur satellite trackers who specialize in classified missions have guessed that Zuma would test new sensors for watching close approaches between spacecraft.

However, since the launch, the mission has led to a series of questions with few answers.

On Monday evening, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported that Zuma failed to activate correctly, and that rather than orbiting the planet, the system was crashing back to earth. An industry official familiar with the mission told C4ISRNET the satellite likely cost more than $3 billion. [Read More: Mehta/c4isrnet/9Jan2018]

British Security Chief to Advise Qatar on World Cup Security. A senior Whitehall official has quietly left his job as an aide to Theresa May to advise Qatar on security threats at the 2022 World Cup.

Paddy McGuinness stepped down as Britain's deputy national security adviser on "intelligence, security and resilience" last week after being overlooked for a number of posts, including director of GCHQ, the UK's signals agency.

McGuinness, a Middle East expert and fluent Arabic speaker whose "robust approach" ruffled feathers among spooks in Whitehall, will advise Qatar's rulers on counterterrorism and intelligence infrastructures to help stop attacks at the tournament. [Read More: Kerbaj/thetimes/14Jan2018]

Director of National Intelligence Issues New Guidelines for Intel Report Unmasking. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats on Thursday issued a new set of guidelines concerning "unmasking" the identities of Americans that appear in intelligence reports.

Coats signed a document that directs government agencies to implement a new privacy policy within the next 90 days. It establishes "for the first time community-wide guidance for responding to requests for the identities of U.S. persons in disseminated intelligence reports, commonly referred to as 'unmasking'" according to the DNI. President Trump formally instructed Coats to establish the policy on Tuesday.

The policy requires that only intelligence community heads and their designees may approve requests for the identities of Americans and requires documentation for names or titles of people who receive the information. There must be, according to the document, a "fact-based justification" for each request. Additionally, there now has to be an intelligence community general counsel "concurrence" for requests related to presidential transition team members before the requests are approved by the intelligence community.

Republican lawmakers have said that the names of Trump transition team members were improperly unmasked by Obama administration officials. Obama administration officials have insisted that their unmasking requests were routine. [Read More: Shebad/cbsnews/11Jan2018]

CIA Director Seeks Stronger Counterintelligence Against Spies and Leakers. British spy novelist John LeCarre elegantly called it the oldest question of all: Who can spy on the spies? He was talking about counterintelligence - the often arcane business of finding foreign spies who try to penetrate intelligence services.

Counterintelligence at CIA today is a far cry from its Cold War world of Soviet moles or penetration agents and neutralizing them or turning them into double agents.

Current CIA Director Mike Pompeo is working to change all that. Pompeo has elevated the status of CIA's counterintelligence center, a dedicated unit within the agency's Langley, Va., headquarters that is devoted to identifying and countering foreign intelligence agents and their activities.

CIA counterintelligence efforts, however, remain limited by a lack of both qualified personnel and strategic vision needed to deal with a growing spy threat that today includes both cyber operations and influence activities, in addition to traditional spying by nations such as China and Russia. The foreign spying threat is increasing in both scale and sophistication, according to intelligence experts. [Read More: Gertz/freebeacon/9Jan2017]

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Stealth and Speed: America's SR-71 Blackbird Might Be Old (But Still the World's Fastest Plane). The sleek and sinister SR-71 Blackbird looks like it belongs in a science fiction movie, though in fact the jet black spy plane proved far more successful at outrunning enemy missiles than any of the spaceships depicted in Star Wars. Though retired in the 1990s in favor of spy satellites and recon drones, it doesn't look like any modern designs are likely to challenge the Blackbird's record as the fastest manned aircraft ever.

As Cold War tensions heightened during the 1950s, the CIA began flying the U-2 spy plane to keep tabs on the Soviet Union's fast expanding nuclear weapons capabilities. Ungainly and relatively slow-moving, the U-2 relied upon its ability to fly at extremely high altitudes to avoid enemy fighters and early surface-to-air missiles.

The intelligence provided by U-2s in 1962 uncovered the Soviet nuclear missiles deployed to Cuba, leading to the dramatic events of the Cuban Missile Crisis. But the U-2s also provoked diplomatic incidents because they simply couldn't fly high enough to avoid Russian missiles SA-2 surface-to-air missiles. A U-2 was shot down in 1960, and its pilot, Gary Powers, captured, triggering an embarrassing diplomatic row. Another U-2 was shot down during the Cuban Missile Crisis, killing the pilot and escalating tensions between Moscow and Washington at a critical moment. Five Taiwanese U-2s were shot down over China.

American engineers realized altitude was no longer an adequate defense and in 1957 began working on a plane for the CIA that they hoped Soviet radars would be unable to detect, and that could outrun any missiles fired at it. The Lockheed Skunkworks factory ultimately developed the A-12, codenamed "Archangel." The prototype was first tested in Area 51 in 1962, and in the end fifteen A-12s were produced. [Read More: Roblin/nationalinterest/15Jan2018]

5 Baltimore City High School Students got Top Secret Clearances, and are Interning at the NSA. This school year, five students from Carver VoTech High School are interning at the National Security Agency.

It marks the first time that Baltimore city high school students are participating in the NSA's High School Work Study program, which sets them up to work for half a day at the Fort Meade-based intelligence agency, and go to school for the other half-day. The students get paid, as well as a security clearance.

And once you're in to the Agency, you're in.

"The bulk of people that go through high school work study program stay affiliated somehow," said Delali Dzirasa, president of Spark Baltimore-based dev agency Fearless. [Read More: Babcock/technical.ly/11Jan2018]

Do Shortwave 'Numbers Stations' Really Instruct Spies? Tune across the shortwave bands (above AM/MW), and chances are you will come across a "numbers station." There's no programming to speak of; just a mechanical-sounding voice (male or female) methodically announcing seemingly random groups of single digit numbers for minutes on end.

Congratulations! You are now officially a spy-catcher, to the extent that you may have tuned into a spy agency's "numbers station" transmitting one-way instructions to their minions worldwide.

Numbers stations are unidentified radio broadcasts that consist usually of a mechanical voice "reading out strings of seemingly random numbers," explained Lewis Bush, author of "Shadows of the State" a new history of numbers stations and the spies who run them. "These are sometimes accompanied by music, tones or other sound effects." He said. "There are also related stations broadcasting in Morse Code and digital modes."

NO PARANOID DELUSION. Program formats aside, the common purpose of numbers stations is "to broadcast coded messages to spies in distant countries," said Ryan Schaum. He is co-founder of Numbers Station Research and Information Center (NSRIC), a hobbyist group that reports on these signals at www.numbers-stations.com. According to Schaum, the "use of shortwave allows complete secrecy and makes it impossible to determine who the recipient is." [Read More: Careless/radioworld/12Jan2018]

A World War II Quandary: What To Do With All Those Axis Diplomats In D.C.? It's one of the most striking images of Washington from just after the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor: Smoke rising from the garden of the Japanese Embassy on Massachusetts Avenue NW as diplomats burned box after box of secret documents.

But have you ever wondered what happened next?

Harvey Solomon did - and the Takoma Park, Md., writer is hoping there are still some people around who recall one of the oddest episodes of the World War II home front: more than 1,000 employees from Axis embassies - diplomats, their families, staff and servants - were sent from Washington to live in luxury hotels.

"The FBI and the State Department wanted them out of the embassies," Solomon said. "They might still be communicating via radio, and they had diplomatic pouches. All that had to end." [Read More: Kelly/washingtonpost/10Jan2018]

Agent Brutus: The Secret Hero of D-Day. No one paid much attention to the little Polish printer who lived in a flat off Cromwell Road in west London. He kept dozens of cats and watched a lot of James Bond films in his front room. He spoke with a heavy Polish accent. He had an unpronounceable name: Roman Czerniawski. What none of his neighbours knew was that the diminutive Pole was a wartime British spy who had once been known by many other names. These included Walenty, Hubert, Armand and Brutus. He had been a secret agent, a double agent and a triple agent. He had spied for Poland, then Britain, then pretended to spy for Germany, while spying for the Allies all along. [Read More: Macintyre/thetimes/13Jan2018]

She Was A Post Columnist - and A Heroic WWII Spy. In 1941, Virginia Hall was a 35-year-old American living in London when she sent a cable to an old friend who worked at the New York Post. Europe was in the throes of war, and Paris had just surrendered to the Nazis. Would the paper be interested in her dispatches on life in Vichy France?

Publisher George Backer answered immediately. He would love to run her reports, but was she sure she wanted to embark on such a dangerous assignment?

Hall had to laugh. After all, Backer didn't know that he was dealing with one of the Allied Forces' cleverest spies.

There's a saying that the actress Ginger Rogers did everything her on-screen dance partner Fred Astaire did except backwards and in heels. Well, Virginia Hall - alias Brigitte LeContre, code-named "Germaine" - did everything that the fictional James Bond would do, except in real life and with one leg. [Read More: Laneri/nypost/13Jan2018]

The C.I.A.'s Maddening Relationship with Pakistan. Thirteen years ago, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld arrived in Pakistan with a list. He pulled it from his shirt pocket during a meeting with President Pervez Musharraf, and told the general how, during a recent Oval Office gathering, President George W. Bush had expressed bewilderment and annoyance that most of the terrorists on the list were suspected of hiding out in Pakistan―an ostensible American ally. Musharraf promised to look into the matter, according to a participant in the meeting. And, less than a month later, Pakistan's military intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, or I.S.I., arrested one of the men atop the list. "Here's the truth," a former senior U.S. intelligence official told me. Pakistan has been "in many ways" America's best counterterrorism partner, the official said. "Nobody had taken more bad guys off the battlefield than the Pakistanis."

Yet there was, and remains, a maddening quality to their co'peration, the official said. Pakistan's intelligence service went "all in" against certain terrorists, like Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban, while continuing to support the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqanis, and anti-India jihadis. On at least two occasions, the former acting C.I.A. director Michael Morell flew to Pakistan with a list of militants the United States hoped Pakistan would apprehend or confront. Just last month, Defense Secretary James Mattis went there on a similar mission. "It's frustrating. Our talking points have been identical for the last fifteen years: 'You need to get tough on terrorism, and you need to close the sanctuaries,' " one former intelligence official told me.

Last week, Donald Trump became the third President to echo that frustration. "The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years," he tweeted. "They have given us nothing but lies & deceit." Three days later, the Trump Administration went further than its predecessors when the State Department announced that it was suspending military-equipment deliveries and financial assistance to Pakistan until the country took, in the words of a senior Administration official, "decisive action" against the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network, and other groups that "threaten U.S. interests and U.S. personnel" in Afghanistan. The value of suspended funds totals approximately two billion dollars, and includes military equipment that Pakistan ordered in 2013 but has not yet received.

American officials have never been blind to the Pakistani agency's duplicity. It was "baked into the stock price of U.S.-Pakistan relations," said Joshua White, a former national-security council adviser in the Obama Administration. And, in general, Pakistani co'peration with America's counterterrorism campaign has been strong: their government permitted the C.I.A. to fly armed drones over Pakistan's remote tribal areas, where many militants hid. Initially, the agency even based its drones on Pakistani soil, working off a list jointly drawn up with its I.S.I. counterparts. As those on the "target deck" were killed, new names - most of them foreign Al Qaeda leaders - were added. [Read More: Schmidle/newyorker/12Jan2018]

Section III - COMMENTARY

It Appears Russia Just Assassinated Someone in a British Crown Territory. Last Monday, Jan. 8, a car was found set alight on the British crown territory of Guernsey.

Skeletal remains since found in the driving seat are believed to be those of its owner, Mikus Alps, a Latvian who had fought with pro-Ukrainian volunteers against Russia's incursion into south-eastern Ukraine.

A small island in the English channel, Guernsey is normally a quiet, peaceful place. But according to Mikus Alps' volunteer friends, he had suffered escalating threats in recent months. In addition, according to Ukrainian press reports, Alps was providing cars to Ukrainian forces fighting the Russian-aligned rebels.

This establishes the motive for a Russian assassination: the Russian intelligence services work persistently to coerce individuals against opposing Putin's interests in Ukraine. While most of this activity is carried through via threat, it also takes the form of assassinations in Ukraine. [Read More: Rogan/washingtonexaminer/15Jan2018]

The Gambia's Once-Ruthless Intelligence Agency is Opening Up. DEEP inside the headquarters of the National Intelligence Agency of the Gambia is a dark and airless dungeon barely big enough for one person. Infested by mosquitoes and reeking of urine, the notorious bambadinka (crocodile hole) was dreaded by opponents of Yahya Jammeh, the Gambia's president from 1996 to 2017. Mr Jammeh used the agency as his own secret police. The country's spooks developed a reputation for kidnapping and torturing dissidents, often in the bambadinka.

After losing an election in December 2016, Mr Jammeh tried to hold on to power, but was pushed out a month later by the country's neighbours. (He now lives in Equatorial Guinea.) Freed from his malign influence, the intelligence agency is trying to repair its image. For a start, it has renamed itself the State Intelligence Service. Its most notorious thugs have been arrested, some spooks have been sacked and the rest are getting human-rights training.

Entering the intelligence agency's headquarters is still an unnerving experience. Unlike other government buildings, there is no sign outside, just guards. But its site is also a reminder of the change that has swept the country: it is next to the high court, where nine former officials, including a former director-general, are on trial for allegedly beating an opposition leader to death.

Adama Barrow, the president, defeated Mr Jammeh in 2016 with promises of wide-ranging reforms, including a pledge to make the security services more accountable to the public. Under its new head, Ousman Sowe, the intelligence service is opening up. Late last year Mr Sowe, a career civil servant, went on a nationwide tour, meeting mayors, religious figures and village chiefs, and explaining that his job was to protect rather than terrorise them. Last month Mr Sowe granted this newspaper his first sit-down interview. [Read More: economist/10Jan2018]

Foreign Spies are Watching - and probably targeting - Fox News Channel. The Associated Press recently reported that Russian intelligence has been aggressively and actively trying to compromise journalists across the globe. Media personalities were the third-largest group on the list of people Russian operatives tried to hack, after diplomatic personnel and Democrats, according to the cybersecurity firm Secureworks.

Penetrating media circles seems to be worth the effort for certain nations. Such intelligence-focused efforts are amoral - operatives go where the relevant data is. Foreign services are working every day to better understand America's next moves. Others are trying to covertly influence U.S. foreign policy.

But resources are finite. More personnel on one target means fewer on another. So if I were a spymaster in the employ of a hostile foreign service, I'd devote some significant effort to penetrating one specific private institution: Fox News Channel.

This is not a critique of Fox programming or content. I've been on Fox News multiple times as a commentator and have always had a positive experience with staff and hosts. Rather, it's my assessment, informed by my time as a CIA analyst, of how foreign powers might position limited intelligence resources to achieve maximum return. [Read More: Peritz/washingtonpost/10Jan2018]

Nigeria: Exclusive - the Untold Security, Intelligence Conundrum of the Buhari Administration. One week into the new year, Tuesday, January 9, the air in Abuja was dry, dusty, and clammy. The nation's capital was sluggishly waking into a new rhythm of calm and relative order after the chaos of the Christmas season prompted by a debilitating fuel crisis.

That day, at the headquarters of the National Intelligence Agency [NIA], in the south east corner of Maitama district of the city, Mohammed Dauda, the then acting director of the agency was getting ready for an official briefing with President Mohammed Buhari. It was his first of such briefing after he was plucked out of the Nigerian embassy in the Republic of Chad October last year, to come serve as acting head of the spy agency tasked with overseeing foreign intelligence and counterintelligence operations.

Last year April, the NIA became the butt of a bumpy controversy on account of a botched undercover operation and a $43million lodgement at an Ikoyi apartment that eventually led to the suspension and subsequent investigation of Mr. Ayodele Oke, a career diplomat and erstwhile director general of the agency.

Dauda the NIA boss in cheery mood. When Mr. Dauda emerged from his meeting, according to Premium Times sources at the Aso Rock Villa, he was in "such an expansive and cheery mood," and it started looking as if he was now on an assured path to reinforcing his position, and probably earning confirmation as substantive head of the agency. [Read More: Tukur/allafrica/16Jan2018]

Section IV - Jobs, and Obituaries

Jobs

Cyber Threat Analysts sought for Reston, VA client.

Senior Cyber Threat Analyst in Reston, VA for FireEye, Inc.
Experience: 8 to 20 years; Work directly with multiple clients on a day to day basis to transform their security organizations Provide support to internal teams and manage internal initiatives and projects Align resources to ensure successful engagement execution Operate effectively across strategic and tactical deliverables Adapt to unique situation... more details here.

Cyber Threat Analyst in Reston, VA for FireEye, Inc.
Experience: 2 to 20 years; Execute scripts to process discrete log files and extract specific incident indicators Process, organize, analyze and assist in contextualization of incident indicators Develop engagement deliverables; Support customer briefings Assist in coordination with multiple internal teams to leverage capabilities for the benefit of... more details here.

Obituaries

William H. Girvan, 90, an Outstanding Multi-lingual expert at NSA, died 25 December 2017. Bill worked at NSA for 39 years as a linguist. He was one of the most important multi-linguists in the Agency. German was one of his languages, but he also knew Hungarian, Russian and several others, and was a member of an advanced language research group.
He retired in 1998. He served in the U.S. Army for 2 years. Most of his army service was performed at NSA. When he was honorably discharged from the army, he was immediately hired as a civilian NSA employee, initially assigned to Arlington Hall. He received a Masters degree from Northwestern University. He was an active member of the Phoenix Society.

Section V - Events

AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

Thursday, 18 January 2018, 11:30 AM - Colorado Springs, CO - The AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter hosts Julio Gutierrez, discussing "Naval Intelligence from the Cold War to the Present."

The presentation includes a comparison of the Navy's all-source Intelligence operations and emphases during the Cold War, versus very different Naval Intelligence missions in 2017 -- especially asymmetric threats like terrorism, piracy, arms/drugs/human trafficking, WMD counter-proliferation, and the emergence of new strategic threats from Russia, China, and North Korea. New areas of strategic maritime competition encompass Russian Arctic development, Chinese exploitation of undersea methane hydrates, and Russian "new physical-principles weapons" threats.

Captain (Ret.) Julio Gutierrez had a 26-year Naval, Joint, Inter-Agency, National and Coalition Intelligence career around the globe, including F-14 Tomcat squadron, carriers, cruisers, expeditionary amphibious warfare, NATO SHAPE, Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Central Command, and the Chief of Naval Operations' Strategic Studies Group. After active duty retirement in 2003, he was a GS future-concepts and unmanned systems technologist for the Naval Undersea Warfare Center, and NavSeaSysCom Technical Representative to NORAD & USNORTHCOM 2006-2011 for Maritime Homeland Defense. He is now a contract Maritime Security executive course instructor in the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations, for foreign senior officers at Monterey and abroad. Education: Stanford B.A. (International Relations) and Naval War College Masters (National Security Strategy & Policy). Wife Cecily is a retired Naval Intelligence LCDR.

To Attend or for more information, contact Tom VanWormer at robsmom@pcisys.net

Thursday, 18 January 2018, 12:30 - 2 pm - Los Angeles, CA - The AFIO LA Chapter hears from Dr. Paul Smith on "Operational Remote Viewing."

Our next meeting features Dr. Paul Smith discussing "Operational Remote Viewing: Considerations and Concerns."
Dr. Smith is a retired Army intelligence officer, having worked at the tactical level during Desert Storm with the 101st Abn Div, and strategically in the special operations arena and at DIA, among other assignments. His primary expertise is remote viewing. For most of the seven years he was a captain assigned to a black project known these days as the Star Gate Program. Hh holds an MSSI degree from National Defense University focusing on the Middle East. After retiring, he earned a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin in philosophy.

Location: LAPD-ARTC 5951 W. Manchester Ave. L.A. CA 90045 ROOM 1E. Refreshments will be served.

RSVP ASAP and then mark your calendar. RSVP to Vince Autiero at AFIO_LA@yahoo.com. The meeting will include general chapter business matters at the conclusion of the guest speaker's presentation.

31 January 2018 (Wednesday), 11:30 am - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO San Francisco Chapter hosts Alan Brown on "The History of the Lockheed Skunk Works and the Development of the F-117A Stealth Fighter"

Alan Brown, former Director of Engineering at Lockheed discusses "History of the Lockheed Skunk Works and the Development of the F-117A Stealth Fighter" at this January meeting of the AFIO "Andre LeGallo" San Francisco Chapter.
WHERE: Basque Cultural Center, 599 Railroad Avenue, South San Francisco, CA 94080.
TIMING: 11:30AM no host cocktail; meeting and luncheon at noon.
RSVP: Register here. Reservation and pre-payment is required before January 21, 2018. The venue cannot accommodate walk-ins. Questions? Contact Mariko Kawaguchi, Board Secretary at afiosf@aol.com.

9 February 2018 - Tysons, VA - First AFIO luncheon of 2018 features Toni Hiley, CIA Museum Director, and Steve Coll, author/journalist, on The CIA and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Our first luncheon of 2018. Toni Hiley, CIA Museum Director, Center for the Study of Intelligence speaks in the morning. Followed by lunch, and then a presentation by Steve Coll, author/journalist, on his reviewer-praised forthcoming book debuting at event, DIRECTORATE S: The CIA and America's Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, 2001-2016.
Times: 10 am badge pickup; Hiley speaks at 11; lunch at noon; Coll at 1; event closes at 2.
Register here.

Saturday, 10 February 2018, 11:30-2 - Melbourne, FL - The AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter hears from Professor Scott Tilley on "Big Data and Predictive Analytics: Who Watches the Watchers?"

Florida Institute of Technology professor and regular Florida Today columnist Scott Tilley will address the current big data landscape, provide an overview of some of the tools available to manage massive datasets, and discuss some of the possible impacts of big data and predictive analytics on businesses and society at large in the coming years.

For further information and to register to attend meeting, contact FSC Chapter President at afiofsc@afio.com.

Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others

Wednesday, 17 January 2018, 6:30pm ' Washington, DC ' Escape the Enemy: An Aggressively Interactive Evening with Navy SEAL Clint Emerson ' at the International Spy Museum

When the world hands you a bad situation, Clint Emerson can give you the skills to be prepared. He should know. During his time as a Navy SEAL and Joint Special Operations Command Operator, he was a violent nomad―someone who traveled the world employing his unique set of skills to support operations in hostile environments against high value targets. Join Emerson for a crash course in restraint defeat. He will help you discover how to pick locks, break out of handcuffs, and generally get away. You'll receive a 10-piece lock-picking kit and practice padlock, so you can keep your newfound skills sharp when you return to your-hopefully-everyday ordinary life. Emerson is the author of 100 Deadly Skills: The SEAL Operative's Guide to Eluding Pursuers, Evading Capture, and Surviving Any Dangerous Situation--don't miss this chance to learn from an actual Special Forces operator how to actively and creatively protect yourself. Tickets for the general public: $20 per person; Members: $10. Visit www.spymuseum.org.

Thursday, 18 January 2018, 6:30 - 8 pm - Alexandria, VA - NIP Third Thursday Social hears from Lt Keith Moody, USN on "National Defense Center."

Naval Intelligence Professional (NIP) No-Host Social will be held at Sonoma Cellar 207 King St, Alexandria, VA 22314
The guest speaker will be LT Keith Moody, USN (1830) on "National Defense Center: Increasing Threats in the Final Frontier." LT Moody - a Navy Intelligence Officer with NIMITZ Center's Transnational Threat group at Office of Naval Intelligence - shares his insights having recently completed a 6-month assignment to the National Space Defense Center in Colorado Springs, CO.
No RSVP Required. Dress: Smart Casual. Members and non-members are welcomed. Cash bar with wine, beer, non-alcoholic beverages, and an excellent food menu!

Sunday, 21 January 2018, 12:30pm - Alexandria, VA - Author Liza Mundy discusses CODE GIRLS - Women Codebreakers who aided WWII

The Washington Society for Churchill hosts author Liza Mundy discussing her new book Code Girls: The Untold Story of the American Women Code Breakers of World War II. Enjoy brunch and bottomless champagne during her presentation.
Mundy is a former staff writer for the Washington Post and author of three other books. She also is a frequent contributor to a number of current events and political publications. She has a BA from Princeton University and an MA from the University of Virginia.
PRICE: $35/pp includes brunch, champagne, and donation to The Society.
LOCATION: Joe Theismann's Restaurant, 1800 Diagonal Rd., Alexandria, VA.
RSVP by 17 January to: Sam Ankerbrandt at 703-999-7955 or sankerbrandt@gmail.com
MAIL PAYMENT and names of self and guests by January 17 to Society Treasurer Karin Mens, 5192 Maitland Terrace, Frederick MD 21703. Make checks payable to "Washington Society for Churchill."
PS: If you already have copy of book, bring it to have Mundy inscribe.

Tuesday, 23 January 2018, 6:30pm ' Washington, DC ' Sunken Gold: A Story of World War I Espionage ' at the International Spy Museum

On January 25, 1917, HMS Laurentic, a British ship laden with forty-four tons of Allied gold was sunk by German mines off the coast of Ireland. Desperate to recover the treasure, the Admiralty sent its best divers to salvage the gold. Their experiences in the tight confines of the sunken wreck drew the attention of Rear Admiral Reginald "Blinker" Hall, the Head of British Naval Intelligence, who organized the group into the legendary "Tin-openers." These divers, operating in live minefields, plumbed into freshly sunk U-boats searching for codes, ciphers, and other intelligence to assist the codebreaking operations of the mysterious Room 40 and help win the war. Joseph A. Williams, author of The Sunken Gold: A Story of World War I, Espionage, and the Greatest Treasure Salvage in History will recount, through newly discovered sources, the epic deeds of these covert divers, bringing to light the grit and determination their project demanded.
Co-sponsored by the Naval Intelligence Professionals. For NIP Member tickets email: soltmans@spymuseum.org.
Tickets for the general public: $10 per person; Members: $8. Visit www.spymuseum.org.

24 January 2018, 6-9:30 pm - Washington, DC - "A Year In Review with James Clapper" at the International Spy Museum

The International Spy Museum invites you to join them for a cocktail and hors d'oeuvres reception and an evening of conversation with James Clapper as he offers his perspective on a "Year in Review." Topics covered include North Korea, Iran, China, Russia, and other technologies of concern. Bring your questions for the Q&A.

Clapper is the former Director of National Intelligence, Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, and Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. Lt. Gen Clapper worked under four Presidents, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, William Jefferson Clinton and Barack Obama after serving 32 years in the Air Force.

TIMING: Reception 6-7:15 pm, includes cocktails and heavy hors d'oeuvres; Conversation with James Clapper 7:15-8:30 pm; After-Glow Dessert Reception 8:30 - 9:30 pm
PRICES range from $275 per seat up to $15,000. Register here while space remains.

24 January 2018, 9 am to 5 pm EST - Washington, DC - Workshop on Workforce Development and Intelligence Analysis - National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine

Will also include two other national security-related workshops. A webcast of the intelligence analysis workshop will also be made available. More information on the workshops and access to the webcast can be found here.
The workshop will feature invited presentations and discussion to examine cutting-edge social and behavioral science research to better understand how to build an analytic workforce—from recruitment to training and motivating through leadership leadership to identifying the optimal ways to collaborate with technology in teams to trends in future workforce development. The workshop is one of three workshops to be held. The workshops are designed to gather information for the Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security. Input from the research communities is critical to the success of the SBS Decadal Survey. In advance of and during the workshops, research ideas and comments on ideas are encouraged.

Agenda
Registration

Location: Keck Center, 500 Fifth St NW, Washington, DC

Friday, 26 January 2018, 6 - 9 pm ' Washington, DC ' Spy Fest: A Kidspy Family Festival ' at the International Spy Museum

Sitting in your comfy chair watching James Bond makes spy tradecraft look easy―now's your chance to find out if you could be the next 007. Do you have the savvy to beat a lie-detector? The smarts to break a top secret coded message? The wits to create secret writing? The moves of a Ninja? Families are invited to find out how they measure up at the Museum's Annual Spy Fest. Mini-missions, tradecraft demonstrations by the experts, and the chance to try spy skill challenges will give KidSpy agents and their handlers an insider's peek into the shadow world of spying―and who knows, there just may be a spy or two in your midst.
Tickets for the general public: $14 per person; Members: $12. Visit www.spymuseum.org.

Wednesday, 28 February 2018 - Washington, DC - "The New Cold War?: The State of US-Russia Relations & Unconventional Threats to US Security" - a symposium at Georgetown University Law School.

The Journal of National Security Law & Policy annual symposium theme is "The New Cold War?: The State of U.S.-Russia Relations & Unconventional Threats to U.S. Security."

In addition to the following three panels, the symposium will also feature a lunchtime keynote speech by Laura Kennedy, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs under the George W. Bush Administration.
Panel 1: Foreign Ties in the National Security Context: The Politics & Policies of Disclosure; Panelists will provide an overview of disclosure laws through the lenses of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) and the security clearance process. Panelists will explore questions including: (1) What precisely are FARA and the SF-86's reporting requirements? and (2) What are the legal ramifications for failing to register as a foreign agent or disclose foreign contacts on the SF-86?
Panel 2: The Russian Cyber Threat; Panelists will discuss the growing threat posed by Russian hackers and whether the current international legal regime governing cyberattacks adequately safeguards against the Russian cyber threat, and if it does not, what reforms are needed to mitigate this threat.
Panel 3: Russian State Organized Crime; Panelists will explore the dangers posed by Russian state organized crime being invested in the U.S. economy and businesses, how state-sponsored organized crime is different from regular organized crime, and how the techniques used to combat them are the same, and how they are different. A reception will follow, and additional details will be announced soon. RSVP for the symposium here.

4-7 April 2018 - San Francisco, CA - ISA2018: The International Studies Association (ISA) 59th Annual Convention includes an Intelligence Studies Section with a exceptional program.

The Intelligence Studies Section content (4 straight days, 30 panels and roundtables) is one small part of ISA's much larger conference. The full conference program is almost 300 pages; find details at the full conference website here. The Intelligence Studies Section (ISS) is one of thirty thematic sections that make up the ISA, has approximately 350 members, and has been sponsoring research about intelligence as a function of government since the mid-1980s. Additional information on the ISS can be found here.
If you have questions about the ISS program, contact the Section Chair: Stephen Marrin at marrinsp@jmu.edu or spm8p@yahoo.com
The updated program of Intelligence Studies Section panels at ISA2018 is here. Scan down that page to be dazzled by the number of presenters and breadth of intelligence and national security topics. This is a must attend conference.

Gift Suggestions:

AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence AFIO's 788-page Guide to the Study of Intelligence. Peter C. Oleson, Editor, also makes a good gift. View authors and table of contents here.

Perfect for professors, students, those considering careers in intelligence, and current/former officers seeking to see what changes are taking place across a wide spectrum of intelligence disciplines.

AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence helps instructors teach about the large variety of subjects that make up the field of intelligence. This includes secondary school teachers of American History, Civics, or current events and undergraduate and graduate professors of History, Political Science, International Relations, Security Studies, and related topics, especially those with no or limited professional experience in the field. Even those who are former practitioners are likely to have only a limited knowledge of the very broad field of intelligence, as most spend their careers in one or two agencies at most and may have focused only on collection or analysis of intelligence or support to those activities.

For a printed, bound copy, it is $95 which includes Fedex shipping to a CONUS (US-based) address.
To order for shipment to a US-based CONUS address, use this online form,

To order multiple copies or for purchases going to AK, HI, other US territories, or other countries call our office at 703-790-0320 or send email to afio@afio.com to hear of shipment fees.

Order the Guide from the AFIO's store at this link.

...ORDER HERE from AFIO.

The Guide is also available directly from Amazon at this link.

AFIO's 2017 Intelligence Community Mousepads are a great looking addition to your desk...or as a gift for others..
Made in USA. Click image for larger view.

These 2017 mousepads have full color seals of all 18 members of the US Intelligence Community on this 8" round, slick surface, nonskid, rubber-backed mouse pad with a darker navy background, brighter, updated seals. Also used, by some, as swanky coasters. Price still only $20.00 for 2 pads [includes shipping to US address. Foreign shipments - we will contact you with quote.] Order NEW MOUSEPADS here.

Disclaimers and Removal Instructions

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced for non-profit educational uses by members and WIN subscribers.

REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs:

a) IF YOU ARE A MEMBER - click here: UNSUBSCRIBE and supply your full name and email address where you receive the WINs. Click SEND, you will be removed from list. If this link doesn't open a blank email, create one on your own and send to afio@afio.com with the words: REMOVE FROM WINs as the subject, and provide your full name and email address where you are currently receiving them.

b) IF YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER, and you received this message, someone forwarded this newsletter to you [contrary to AFIO policies]. Forward to afio@afio.com the entire WIN or message you received and we will remove the sender from our membership and distribution lists. The problem will be solved for both of us.

CONTENTS of this WIN [HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents. This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition or for some AOL recipients]. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. The HTML feature also does not work for those who access their e-mail using web mail...however NON-HTML recipients may view the latest edition each week in HTML at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm

WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor's) or author's) listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at www.afio.com for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications and much more!

(c) 2000, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018. Please note AFIO's new address: AFIO, 7600 Leesburg Pike, Suite 470 East, Falls Church, VA 22043-2004. Voice: (703) 790-0320; Fax: (703) 991-1278; Email: afio@afio.com

Click here to return to top.