AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #36-16 dated 13 September 2016

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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Events

Upcoming AFIO Events

Other Upcoming Events

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events 

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors:  mh, gh, mk, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.
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Another book of interest released this month:

Released this month is Cees Wiebes' Samen met de CIA: Operaties achter het IJzeren Gordijn [Together with the CIA: Operations behind the Iron Curtain], in Dutch, [Boom uitgevers Amsterdam; Sep 1, 2016]. An English-language review of the book by the Crypto Museum is here.
Book may be purchased here.

      

AFIO Members are invited to attend

"Looking Over The Horizon"
CIA's Third Conference on The Ethos & Profession of Intelligence

Tuesday, 20 September 2016 9 am to 5 pm

George Washington University, Lisner Auditorium, Washington

CIA and George Washington University co-host CIA's third public conference on national security, "The Ethos and the Profession of Intelligence," on the GW campus on Tuesday, September 20, 2016.

The full-day conference will feature remarks from senior CIA officials and a set of panel discussions that will bring together intelligence community leaders, national security experts, private sector leaders and members of the media.

The theme of this year's conference is "Looking over the Horizon." The panels at the conference will focus on the long-term global challenges and opportunities that prominent experts and CIA senior officers expect will shape the future.

The conference will include the following panels:

• The View from Foreign Intelligence Chiefs: Addressing today's complex transnational threats requires diplomatic, military, and intelligence partnerships. CIA's foreign intelligence liaison relationships have never been more critical to global security. In an unprecedented panel, current Intelligence Chiefs will publicly discuss the role of intelligence in a dynamic and dangerous global environment and the importance of intelligence partnerships in confronting current and future challenges.
• Great Power Rivalry: Enduring Danger or a Thing of the Past? With America's post-9/11 focus on terrorists and non-state actors, do observers underestimate the potential for conflict between great powers? Will tensions in places like the South China Sea and Eastern Europe prompt a new era of competition between the United States and China or Russia? What are the risks and opportunities going forward? How should the Intelligence Community ensure it is well positioned to understand the plans and intentions of great power rivals?
• Disruptive Technologies and Digital Dilemmas: With each passing day, the promise of new technology opens exciting possibilities while posing new and difficult questions. What technologies have the greatest potential to revolutionize or complicate the intelligence business? What technologies pose the greatest security concerns? How can CIA and the IC take full advantage of the latest technology while avoiding potential security and civil liberty pitfalls?
• The Public Trust—Outlook for Intel Oversight, Public Accountability, and Transparency: The past several years have seen substantial changes in public attitudes toward government accountability and transparency. What might the future hold for public expectations of openness? Can a balance between secrecy and transparency be reached, or is a healthy tension the best our democracy can hope for? A panel with diverse opinions and perspectives will discuss their view on trends in public accountability and transparency and on how CIA should respond.
• Brace for Crisis? Assessing the Potential Toll of Humanitarian Disaster: Recent events have shown how disease, refugee crises, and resource scarcity will have an increasingly significant impact on the global landscape. Identifying humanitarian crises before they destabilize nations and trigger conflicts will increasingly demand the attention of CIA and IC analysts. A panel of experts with experience in the humanitarian community will discuss the role of intelligence analysis in warning of humanitarian crises.

For agenda listing speakers and instructions on registration, log in to AFIO's members-only area here to access PDF. Forgot access? Login information is printed on membership cards.

Book of the Week:

True Believe - Story of Noel Field, Stalin's Last American Spy

True Believer: Stalin's Last American Spy
by Kati Marton
(Simon & Schuster; September 6, 2016; $19 hardcover)


"Noel Field is one of the most fascinating spies produced by the Cold War. He twisted his soul trying to do good in the world. Marton's beautiful storytelling reminds us of the America that spawned traitors.  If you can understand Field, you can understand America.  A one of a kind book." (Joe Weisberg, creator and executive producer of The Americans)

This astonishing real-life spy thriller, filled with danger, misplaced loyalties, betrayal, treachery, and pure evil, with a plot twist worthy of John le Carré, is relevant today as a tale of fanaticism and the lengths it takes us to.

True Believer reveals the life of Noel Field, an American who betrayed his country and crushed his family. Field, once a well-meaning and privileged American, spied for Stalin during the 1930s and '40s. Then, a pawn in Stalin's sinister master strategy, Field was kidnapped and tortured by the KGB and forced to testify against his own Communist comrades.

How does an Ivy League-educated, US State Department employee, deeply rooted in American culture and history, become a hardcore Stalinist? The 1930s, when Noel Field joined the secret underground of the International Communist Movement, were a time of national collapse: ten million Americans unemployed, rampant racism, retreat from the world just as fascism was gaining ground, and Washington—pre FDR—parched of fresh ideas. Communism promised the righting of social and political wrongs and many in Field's generation were seduced by its siren song. Few, however, went as far as Noel Field in betraying their own country.

With a reporter's eye for detail, and a historian's grasp of the cataclysmic events of the twentieth century, Kati Marton captures Field's riveting quest for a life of meaning that went horribly wrong. True Believer is supported by unprecedented access to Field family correspondence, Soviet Secret Police records, and reporting on key players from Alger Hiss, CIA Director Allen Dulles, and World War II spy master, "Wild Bill" Donovan—to the most sinister of all: Josef Stalin. A story of another time, this is a tale relevant for all times.

An award-winning former NPR and ABC News correspondent whose celebrated books include the National Book Critics Circle finalist Enemies of the People, Marton chronicles the life of Noel Field, a privileged, Ivy League-educated American who joined the State Department as the Depression submerged America. Driven by idealism, he became a Communist Party member and spied for the Soviets until the 1940s. He was then kidnapped by the KGB and under torture was compelled to testify against Communist comrades.

The book may be ordered here.

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Feds Arrest Two Men for Hacking Top Intelligence Officials.  American authorities have arrested two men from North Carolina for hacking into the emails of top intelligence officials, including CIA Director John Brennan. Andrew Otto Boggs, 22, and Justin Gray Liverman, 24, are reportedly part of a hacker collective you might have heard of in the past: Crackas with Attitude. If you'll recall, UK authorities nabbed two other members back in February for the same offense. They were both teenagers, and one of them was apparently the leader codenamed Cracka.

According to The Washington Post, these four - along with another person under investigation in the UK - used social engineering to gain access to the email accounts of various intelligence officials. In Brennan's case, Cracka posed as a Verizon technician to dupe one of the carrier's tech personnel into giving him the CIA chief's password. He then used the details he got to steal (and release) a 47-page top secret security clearance Brennan filled out with all his personal details.

WP said that the team also used social engineering to hack into the accounts of Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr., former FBI deputy director Mark Giuliano, FBI executive assistant Amy Hess, CIA contractor Centra Technology's chief Harold Rosenbaum and Gregory Mecher, the husband of White House communications director Jen Psaki. They got access to Giuliano's details, in particular, simply by calling an FBI help desk and asking the the person on the phone to reset his password. The group then used his info to access a database containing information on law enforcement officials, which they then released online. When authorities looked at Liverman's computer, they found 80 Miami police officers' details taken from Giuliano's database.

Based on the FBI's affidavit, the teens from the UK did most of the social engineering.  [Read more:  Moon/Engaget/9September2016]

Foiled Paris Attack Near Notre Dame Deemed Intelligence Success by France.  President Fran'ois Hollande praised French security forces Friday for apprehending a group of terrorism suspects 'believed to be plotting a major attack.

An Interior Ministry official told the Reuters news agency that the foiled attack had been planned for the Gare de Lyon, a train station in the southeast quadrant of Paris that is one of the busiest in Europe.

"There's a group that has been annihilated, but there are others," Hollande said. "Information we were able to get from our intelligence services allowed us to act before it was too late."

Still reeling from two major attacks in 2015, the French capital has been on edge since Sunday, when authorities found an abandoned car full of gas cylinders near Notre Dame Cathedral.  [Read more:  McAuley/WashingtonPost/9September2016]

Sapp: One National Reconnaissance Office Program at Risk of Delay.  One of the US National Reconnaissance Office's major acquisition programs is at risk of not meeting schedule or performance goals, the director of the agency said Sept. 8.

Speaking here at the Intelligence and National Security Summit, Betty Sapp, the director of the NRO, which builds the country's spy satellites, said one of the agency's 17 programs was "in the yellow," but that she expected it "to deliver soon."

In acquisition parlance, yellow generally means a program faces moderate risk of not meeting its goals.

Sapp's comments come one day after James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, told the same audience that the NRO is responsible for 17 of the intelligence community's 27 major acquisition programs. "For the most part," Clapper said, those programs are meeting performance and schedule goals, but he acknowledged "there are certain exceptions."  [Read more:  Gruss/SpaceNews/8September2016]

Clapper: Spy Agencies Doing 'Pretty Well' on Acquisition Reform.  US intelligence agencies have a good track record on acquisition reform and their integrated IT infrastructure, known as ICITE, is already delivering results and will endure under a new administration, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said Wednesday.

He added that, in his view, intelligence agencies would "one day" extend "dual citizenship" to their counterpart agencies in the so-called Five Eyes group - the United States, Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand.

"I would say we're doing pretty well" on acquisition reform, Clapper told the 2016 Intelligence and National Security Summit. He said that the 26 major procurement programs in the intelligence community - as the sprawling collection of espionage agencies he oversees is known - were "for the most part...green," meaning they were not over-running their budget or timetables by more than a small margin.

Despite the fact that the intelligence budget is classified, Clapper, said the programs get "very rigorous oversight" from his office and the Pentagon. "They get a lot of governance," he said. He singled out the community's continued commitment to research and development saying that spending on researching new technology had been sustained at 5 percent of the $50 billion-plus National Intelligence Program.  [Read more:  Waterman/Fedscoop/7September2016]

Germany to Pour Cash Into Mass Surveillance.  Germany's intelligence agencies are planning a massive increase in their budgets next year, according to a new report. The BND is hoping the cash injection will help it become more independent from the NSA.

Germany's spies will be working with significantly increased resources next year if a budget report leaked to three media outlets is approved. The federal domestic intelligence agency, the Verfassungsschutz (BfV), is asking for an 18-percent budget boost in 2017, up to 307 million euros ($345 million), while the foreign intelligence agency BND wants a 12-percent rise to 808 million euros, according to a report released Thursday by the "S'ddeutsche Zeitung" along with public broadcasters NDR and WDR.

A special parliamentary committee must now approve the increase - which, like all secret service budgets, is classified - but opposition parties have already voiced their concern.  [Read more:  Knight/DeutscheWelle/8September2016]

Why Data Startup Zoomdata Just Scored a Strategic Bet From the Investor for US Spy Agencies.  Big banks like Goldman Sachs and US intelligence agencies have at least several things in common: they're both hungry for better ways to make the vast amounts of data they collect comprehensible to their employees. And they both fancy a startup, Zoomdata, to help.

Zoomdata announced on Thursday that it's received a strategic investment and development agreement with In-Q-Tel, the not-for-profit organization that makes tech investments on behalf of the US intelligence community. The deal comes months after Goldman Sachs led a $25 million funding round in the Reston, Virginia-based startup. And it's a validation of Zoomdata's product that could help it make a push to supplant Palantir as the agencies' preferred tech tool for unlocking more from all the data they collect.

"There are many startups in this space and we've seen pretty much all of them," says In-Q-Tel managing director Steve Bowsher. "None of them had the scope of what Zoomdata's trying to do."

Zoomdata differs from other data-helper companies such as the public Tableau Software and analytics unicorn Palantir because it can draw upon data across a number of sources at once, process their billions of rows of data and produce a visual result in just seconds, says CEO Justin Langseth. Whereas at Palantir the line between services and product have blurred, he argues, Zoomdata's accessibility and its quick turnaround minimize the need for customers to lean on Zoomdata as a services crutch to make sure they're using the product correctly.  [Read more:  Konrad/Forbes/8September2016]

As Talent Pool Wanes, Intel Community Looks to Contractors.  The employee shortage for talented information specialists and scientists in the intelligence community is "too big," says the director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Robert Cardillo.

Intelligence's employee deficit is a sign of a larger trend that government and the Defense Department are unable to attract top talent to their agencies over private industry. It's a trend that has become more and more of a concern over the past decade and has forced some agencies to turn to contractors for work instead of working in-house.

As DoD becomes less of a leader in technological advances, it's consistently leaning on industry to use its superior tech power to do its job.

"When you talk IT the [National Reconnaissance Office] brings a lot of things of data from space, so the ground problem is tough. We have to do a lot of ground processing to make that data make sense to analysts," said NRO director Betty Sapp during the Sept. 8 Intelligence & National Security Summit in Washington. "Commercial has caught up with and surpassed what we need, so we are doing more...buying commercially available services to do that work for us. We would much rather put our money in the payload capabilities that no one else will do for us, the things we take to space...but the basic processing power, the computing power is there for us to buy and that is a commercial service that we can take advantage of and we do."  [Read more:  Maucione/FederalNewsRadio/8September2016]

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Russian Hacking: Why the US Isn't Retaliating.   After weeks of news stories describing Russian intelligence operations to hack into the US political system, many Americans may be wondering what the Obama administration intends to do about it.

The answer: Not very much, at least in the short term, current and former US national security officials say.

While officials have said privately they have solid evidence that Russia is behind a series of intrusions that could amount to interference in the US presidential election, several tell NBC News Obama is unlikely to "name and shame" Russia before the November vote.

Among the reasons: officials don't want to reveal intelligence sources and methods that provide them insight into the activities Russian cyber spies; the US is seeking Russian cooperation in Syria; and American officials worry that an escalating cyber tit for tat between the two powers could hurt US interests more than it helps.   [Read more:  Dilanian/NBCNews/12September2016]

9/11 Propelled Senior Pentagon Official Into Public Service.  On the cloudless morning of Sept. 11, 2001, Marcel Lettre and a few coworkers at their Park Avenue management consulting firm in New York began hearing that the nearby World Trade Center was on fire. Lettre went to the southwest side of the building where six others were gathered in an office with a view of the two towers. 

"The two plane crashes had already occurred and the buildings were burning against a blue clear sky," he wrote in notes to himself shortly after that day. "Once people explained to me that it had been two separate passenger planes, and with the weather being so beautifully clear, it seemed clear that there was no air traffic error."

As he tried to call family members, an image of the Pentagon joined images of the towers on fire on a television screen in the office and they heard an announcement that the Federal Aviation Administration had grounded all planes nationwide. Soon a huge ball of smoke and glass exploded from one of the WTC buildings and Lettre and his coworkers realized the whole structure was collapsing.

Thinking there would be hundreds of casualties, Lettre, a former emergency medical technician with the Bethesda-Chevy Chase Rescue Squad in Maryland, changed clothes and hit the streets to look for ways to help. Eventually he joined up with some New York Fire Department EMTs and they headed for the twin towers.  [Read more:  Pellerin/DOD/8September2016]

The Time US Spies Thought Al Qaeda Was Ready to Nuke DC.  On Christmas Eve 2003, Gen. Michael Hayden, the director of the secretive US National Security Agency, made a secure phone call to his British counterpart, David Pepper, the director of the Government Communications Headquarters.

"Happy Christmas, David," Hayden said, speaking to Pepper from NSA headquarters at Ft. Meade, Maryland, about 20 miles from the Capitol in Washington, DC. Such social calls weren't unusual. The NSA and GCHQ were the closest of allies in a global hunt for the phone calls, emails, and other electronic communications of spies and terrorists.

But Hayden had more on his mind than season's greetings. In recent days, the NSA had been collecting what Hayden would later describe as a "massive amount of chatter" - phone calls and emails from terrorists - that suggested al Qaeda was planning multiple attacks inside the United States, timed to the holidays.

"One more thing, David," Hayden said after the two men exchanged pleasantries. "We actually feel a bit under threat here. And so I've told my liaison to your office that should there be catastrophic loss at Ft. Meade, we are turning the functioning of the American [signals intelligence] system over to GCHQ."

There was a long pause as Pepper absorbed what his American colleague had just told him.  [Read more:  Harris/TheDailyBeast/10September2016]

Top US Intelligence Leaders Share Insights, Fears and Hopes During INSS.  The recurring theme throughout the premier intelligence summit in the nation's capital this week was a parade of nations: The United States is worried about enduring threats posed by Russia, China and North Korea. Sprinkled into the mounting global risk landscape is the drawn-out strife against terrorism - with no near-term end - and the escalating vulnerabilities of the cyber realm.

The presentations offered a realistic snapshot of global turmoil today, bordering on a lot of doom and gloom.

Intelligence officials touched on a wide variety of issues during the two-day Intelligence & National Security Summit (INSS), held September 7 and 8.

Exploring the changes to the intelligence community 15 years after the attacks of September 11, 2001, was the theme of INSS, an unclassified summit co-hosted by AFCEA International and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA).  [Read more:  Jontz/AFCEA/8September2016]

The Hunt for D.B. Cooper: How Intelligence Analysts Took on the Case.  On November 24, 1971, a man using the name Dan Cooper purchased a $35 one-way airline ticket from Portland, Oregon, to Seattle, Washington. Not long after takeoff, he hijacked Northwest Orient Flight 305, and demanded $200,000 in cash along with two parachutes, which he received upon landing in Seattle. He then ordered the plane to take off and fly to Mexico City; during that flight, he jumped from the aircraft into the Oregon wilderness, securing his place as the only unsolved case in FAA history.

In early 2011, following a host of other investigations - both private and government-led - Tom Colbert picked up the trail of the man now known as D.B. Cooper. As an investigative reporter and producer living in Southern California, Colbert was tipped off by a source in the illicit drug trade who had credible - albeit circumstantial - evidence that D.B. Cooper was alive and living in California. Over the next few years, Colbert invested incredible amounts of time and personal resources toward tackling a 45-year-old mystery that so many other investigators before him had failed to solve.

Colbert assembled a large group of leading private investigators, detectives, attorneys, profilers, and other subject matter experts into a group he called the "Cold Case Team." He also knew he needed the expertise of intelligence professionals to help him organize and analyze all the evidence related to this case. While intelligence analysts almost always focus on using their skills for predictive analysis (i.e., what's going to happen), Colbert knew having people proficient in intelligence collection and analysis would provide unique insight into a case that was decades old.

In December 2011, Colbert elicited my help while I was involved in an Army intelligence training contract. We had been associates and friends for a few years and he knew about my involvement in the Able Danger program. As a student, practitioner, developer, and instructor of intelligence methodology, I was interested in his investigation because it was another chance for me to adapt intelligence analytical methods to a cold (very cold) case. I immediately agreed to support his efforts; he sent me a copy of a dossier on the man he suspected was D.B. Cooper.  [Read more:  Kleinsmith/AMU/12September2016]

The Brilliant MI6 Spy Who Perfected the Art of the 'Honey Trap'.  These days the "honeypot" is a popular trope in espionage thrillers, with seemingly every high-level informant recruited via seduction by a ravishing female spy. But long before James Bond ever jumped across the roof of a moving train in books or film, the globe-trotting spy Betty Pack was wooing suitors for classified information on both sides of the Atlantic. Few people have elevated the habit of pillow talk to an art form quite like the crafty American-born intelligence officer, who "used the bedroom like Bond used a beretta," Time magazine noted in 1963.

Pack's code name at the British spy agency MI6 was "Cynthia," and her clandestine escapades during World War II led her boss, Sir William Stephenson, to call her unequivocally "the greatest unsung heroine of the war." Her discovery of the French and Italian naval codes, as well as her work aiding in the decades-long effort to crack the Enigma code, helped the Allies stay a few steps ahead of the Axis powers, and eventually, win the war.

Amy Elizabeth "Betty" Thorpe was born in Minneapolis, Minnesota, in 1910. She was an uncommonly restless child. "Always in me, even when I was a child, were two great passions - one to be alone, the other for excitement," Betty told her fellow spy and lover Harford Montgomery Hyde, according to a new biography, The Last Goodnight. "Any kind of excitement - even fear."

The rebellious girl worshipped her father, Colonel George Thorpe, and detested her mother, Cora. Though Cora was a highly educated and cultivated woman, from her earliest years Betty, who was equally brilliant, viewed her as little more than a striving socialite. "You might say that she was a Persian Cat and I was a Siamese," Betty said later. As her father rose through the ranks in the military, the family moved to Cuba and then to Washington, DC, where they hobnobbed with the political elite. Betty, sent to the best boarding schools, well-versed in high-society decorum, disliked the phoniness of it all. "Life is a game where one plays one's role - where one always hides their true emotions," she wrote in her diary at 13.   [Meares/AtlasObscura/8September2016]

Yes, US Did Hack Elys'e Palace in 2012, French Ex-Spy Says.  Bernard Barbier, a former head of the French signals intelligence service, shared a few stories with students of CentraleSup'lec, the elite engineering school from which he graduated in 1976, at a symposium this summer.

There was that time he caught the US National Security Agency delving into computers at the Elys'e Palace, residence of the French president, for example. And flew to Washington to tell them they'd been found out. Or when the Canadians said they - and the Iranians, the Spaniards, the Algerians and a few others - had all been hacked by a Frenchman, and they were totally right, although the French government denied it.

These little confessions to the members of a student association at his old school, though, have reached a somewhat larger audience than he may have planned on.

The discussion on June 2 was recorded - from the front row, so he must surely have been aware - and found its way onto YouTube later that month. There it lay, largely unremarked, until last weekend when a reporter for French newspaper Le Monde found it and published transcripts of large parts of it. Almost immediately, the original video was taken down. Another has appeared, although the sound has been doctored, purportedly to improve the audio quality.  [Read more:  Sayer/IDG/9September2016]

Section III - COMMENTARY

911: Do We Need a Director of National Intelligence?  The current Director of National Intelligence (DNI) is the fourth person to hold that position since the agency's creation four years after the 911 terror attacks. Should there be a fifth?

Saying yes might invite some critical questions, starting with, well, "why?" Why should that position, and the office it heads, be funded and maintained? There's no critical intelligence capability - at least not in public view - that would be lost; the four operational centers (National Counterterrorism Center, National Counterproliferation Center, National Intelligence Centers, and Joint Intelligence Community Council) could easily be transferred. And that might be a good idea.

No essential function or process would disappear; planning, budgets, and operations could evolve or devolve to other offices. Eliminating the DNI might increase efficiency, removing an entire layer of bureaucratic overhead and recovering for productive activity a good portion of the innumerable hours now spent in meetings and coordination and duplicative review and oversight.

Saying "no" might also encounter objections. Why should that position, and the office it heads, be abolished? The DNI provides a public focal point for concerns about intelligence matters, a face that is called on to brief the president and testify to Congress. The policies, statements, and guidance prepared in his offices encourage interagency collaboration and provide words that sixteen different intelligence agencies can use to show consensus and cooperation. When it comes to critical capabilities and essential functions, the DNI has at least upheld the Hippocratic oath, doing little harm. Eliminating the position might encourage excessive independence by various agencies, destructively competitive actions that could reduce national capabilities and complicate cooperation with foreign governments. [Read more:  Butterworth/BreakingDefense/11September2011]

The Crisis of Indian Intelligence.  During the last three decades, there have been tenacious efforts in India to introduce security sector reforms in order to bring intelligence agencies under democratic control, but notwithstanding the last reform proposals of the Naresh Chandra Committee report (2012), democratic governments in the country could not succeed to bell the cat. Since the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1990s, internal conflicts in India deeply impacted the performance of its intelligence mechanism, and terrorist groups introduced new tactics. The emergence of sectarian mafia groups, and new terrorist organisations like the Daesh and Taliban further embroiled Indian intelligence agencies in unending domestic violence.

The three-decade fight of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and the Intelligence Bureau (IB) with domestic separatism and international terrorism brought about many changes in the attitude of its stakeholders and policy makers to control their self-designed operational strategies that caused misunderstandings between India and its neighbours. In states like Kashmir, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Assam several separatist and terrorist groups emerged with new tactics, while the recent Pathankot terrorist attack generated a new debate about failed strategies, a weak security approach, and power politics within the intelligence infrastructure. These and other incidents showed that intelligence review committees, reports and political parties were right in their criticism of the operational flaws of the agencies.

The Mumbai attacks unveiled a number of terrorist tactics that prevailed in the country. Those tactics and the way terrorists targeted civilians and the police were new to RAW and the IB. In Delhi, intellectual circles and policy makers started debates with the assumption that counterterrorism operations had been influenced by weak intelligence analyses in the country. They also raised the question of check and balance, while the bureaucratic and political involvement further added to their pain. The exponentially growing politicisation, radicalisation and sectarian divides within ranks of all intelligence agencies including RAW and the IB, and violence across the country painted a negative picture of the professional intelligence approach to the national security of India. The perception that the agencies decide whatever they want without restricting themselves to the advisory role caused a deep misunderstanding between the citizens and the state. Political rivalries, poor coordination, sectarian and political affiliations, uncorroborated reports, and lack of motivation are issues that need the immediate attention of Indian policy makers.  [Read more:  Jalalzai/DailyTimes/9September2016]

The Devil's Real: 9/11 Fifteen Years Later.  In the fifteen years since 9/11, US Government counter terrorism (CT) efforts have become more sophisticated and complicated, but so too has the enemy. The United States was ill prepared for the kind of attack suffered on that day, but it recovered quickly and responded to this new, asymmetric threat. But just as the US has responded so too have terrorist groups. The threat has morphed into something more diffuse and in some ways more sophisticated than the one that confronted the US and the world fifteen years ago.

First and foremost, we have hardened the homeland against potential attacks. In an excellent article in The Atlantic, Steven Brill discusses measures that have been taken to make the American people more secure. This includes creating a new government department - Homeland Security (DHS) - whose primary task is to keep Americans safe.

More funding has been put into transportation safety, particularly air travel. More money has been allocated for cargo screening. There are outreach programs to state and local communities. Last year, DHS created an Office of Community Partnership, overseeing a $50 million countering violent extremism (CVE) program. DHS also has an intelligence operation that connects its mission to others in the intelligence community. While the Department does not always get the highest marks for effectiveness, the focus is on improvement of the Department not elimination.

The FBI and law enforcement in general have become even more focused on stopping potential terrorist threats. Brill points out that nearly half of the FBI's agents work on national security issues, and the Bureau's budget has almost tripled since 9/11. There is better connection with state and local law enforcement, and there is more connectivity with the intelligence community.  [Read more:  Danvers/HuffingtonPost/8September2016]

Section IV - Events

AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

Thursday, 15 September 2016, 11:30am - Colorado Springs area, CO - AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter hosts Elizabeth Boardman discussing "Cybersecurity 101: Types of Cybersecurity, Recent Threats, Personal Cybersecurity Safety, Tools Going Forward."

Elizabeth Boardman discusses "Cybersecurity 101: Types of Cybersecurity, Recent Threats, Personal Cybersecurity Safety, Tools Going Forward" at this Rocky Mountain Chapter first meeting of the fall season.
After going through Naval ROTC in the first class of women at Ohio State University, Elizabeth Boardman served for 8 years in the Navy and 21 years in the Naval Reserve, with postings in Groton, Norfolk, South Korea, Munich, and many others in 8 states, including a tour on the national staff for the Commander, Naval Reserve Intelligence in Dallas. She also worked for Boeing in Alaska and Lockheed Martin in Maryland. Her last position was in Colorado Springs.

She has two Bachelor degrees and a Master's Degree in Computer Security and in Information Assurance.

Please RSVP to Tom VanWormer at robsmom@pcisys.net for more details. The cost of the meal is $15.

All presentations to the RMC, AFIO are on the basis of non-attribution so the speakers can feel free to provide information with the assurance it will not be published.

15 September 2016, 12:30 - 2 pm - Los Angeles, CA - AFIO'L.A hosts Maj. Gen. Mark MacCarley, US Army, (Ret) on "Integrating the Active Army, Guard, and Army Reserve for Enhanced National Security Readiness."

Maj. Gen.(Ret) MacCarley will be discussing 'Integrating the Active Army, Guard, and Army Reserve into one Army to optimize readiness and enhance National Security."
Brief Bio: Among Maj. Gen. MacCarley's many accomplishments in the United States Army he has served in the following key positions:
Deputy Chief of Staff, United States Army Training and Doctrine Command; Deputy Commanding General ' Support,1st Army and Commander, 1st Army Reserve Support Command; Deputy Commanding General, 1st Theater Sustainment Command, headquartered at Camp Arifjan, Kuwait; Deputy Commanding General, 8thTheater Sustainment Command, Fort Shafter, Hawaii; Deputy Defense Coordinating Officer and Regional Emergency Preparedness Liaison Officer, US Fifth Army; and Chief of Staff, 377th Theater Sustainment Command, Camp Arifjan, Kuwait.

Location: L.A.P.D.-ARTC, 5651 W Manchester Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90045
Please RSVP: afio_la@yahoo.com to attend. Refreshments will be served.

Friday, 28 October 2016, 11am - 2 pm - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Fall Luncheon

Hold the date for more information on this upcoming AFIO National luncheon featuring two special speakers.

Thursday, 10 November 2016, 11:30am - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Andre LeGallo Chapter hosts author and journalist, Peter Robinson on The Cambridge Spies

Journalist/author Peter Robinson discusses the Cambridge Spies at this AFIO San Francisco Chapter event. Robinson explores the impact of Kim Philby, Donald Maclean, Guy Burgess, Anthony Blunt and others on American-British relations.
Where: United Irish Cultural Center, 2700 45th Ave between Sloat and Wawona, San Francisco, CA 94116.
Fee: Members $25; Non-Member guests $35. Non-host cocktails at 11:30AM; meeting starts promptly at noon.
Reservation and pre-payment is required before October 31, 2016. RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi, Board Secretary, AFIO SF Chapter at afiosf@aol.com

Other Upcoming Events

Thursday, 15 September 2016, 11:30 am - 1 pm - Washington, DC - Daniel Morgan Academy hosts a "by invitation only" talk on "The NYPD Confronts Terrorism: Leading the Response to the 9/11 Attack" by David Cohen, former CIA DDO, former NYPD Deputy Commissioner for Intelligence

The Daniel Morgan Academy hosts an invitation-only national security lecture by David Cohen, Former CIA Deputy Director for Operations, Former NYPD Deputy Commissioner for Intelligence followed by Q&A. Reception begins at 11:30 am; Cohen talk from noon to 1 pm.

David Cohen is an expert on intelligence analysis and operations, with four decades of government experience at CIA and the NYPD Police Department.
Mr. Cohen served as Deputy Commissioner of NYPD for Intelligence, established in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. He was responsible for revolutionizing the way the NYPD and its nearly forty thousand employees collected, analyzed, and shared intelligence, as well as how the organization leveraged traditional intelligence collection and analysis methods to improve operations and inform the NYPD's counter-terrorism strategies. Prior to that position, Cohen served as CIA's DDO where he led what was then called the National Clandestine Services.
LOCATION: Daniel Morgan Academy, 1620 L St NW 7th Flr, Washington, DC 20036. Near Farragut North and West Metro Stations
If you received a direct invite, use the links in that invitation to register. Other who wish to explore attending should contact Frank Fletcher, Director of Lectures and Seminars, Daniel Morgan Academy, at Fletcher@DanielMorgan.academy or call him at 202-759-4988 to see if space is available.

Monday, 19 September 2016, 6:30pm - Washington, DC - Storm Over Leyte with John Prados - at the International Spy Museum

As the Allies prepared for the invasion of the Philippine island of Leyte, every available warship, submarine, and airplane was placed on alert while Japanese admiral Kurita Takeo stalked Admiral William F. Halsey's unwitting American armada. It was the beginning of the epic Battle of Leyte Gulf - the greatest naval battle in history. Join acclaimed historian John Prados, author of the new book Storm Over Leyte, for an unprecedented look at both sides of this titanic naval clash. Drawing upon a wealth of untapped sources - US and Japanese military records, diaries, declassified intelligence reports, and postwar interrogation transcripts - Prados offers up a masterful narrative of naval conflict on a gigantic scale. With access to the naval intelligence reports that influenced key strategic decisions on both sides, find out why Prados believes that despite the Americans' overwhelming superiority in firepower and supplies, the Japanese found a new weapon and achieved part of their goal. The event is co-sponsored by the Naval Intelligence Professionals (NIP). Tickets: $10. Visit www.spymuseum.org

20 September 2016, 11:30 am - 1 pm - McLean, VA - The Defense Intelligence Forum (DIA Alumni Association) hosts Thomas McCabe on "China's Air and Space Revolutions."

Thomas R. McCabe will speak on "China's Air and Space Revolutions" at this DIA Alumni Association luncheon known as "the Defense Intelligence Forum." McCabe was a career analyst for DOD. He started his long government career as in the Marines, and his intelligence career as a second lieutenant in the USAF. He worked as a Middle East military analyst, a counterterrorism analyst for DIA, and as a Russian theater aviation analyst. He has published numerous articles on air and space power theory in a variety of well-regarded trade publications. He retired as lieutenant colonel from the US Air Force and obtained a BA degree from West Chester State College, MA degree from Georgetown University and MS degree from the Defense Intelligence College.
Location: Pulcinella Restaurant, 6852 Old Dominion Dr, McLean, VA.
Fee: Pay at door by check for $29 payable to DIAA, Inc.
Registration starts at 1130 AM, lunch at 1200
The attribution rule for this presentation will be provided at the beginning of the presentation.
RSVP by 19 September by email to diforum@diaalumni.org. Include names, telephone numbers, and email addresses. At time of registration, provide for each guest their entree choice: chicken cacciatore, or tilapia puttanesca, or lasagna, or sausage with peppers, or fettuccini with portobella.
Checks are preferred, but will accept cash; however, credit card payments are discouraged.

Wednesday, 21 September 2016, noon - Washington, DC - True Believer: Stalin's Last American Spy - at the International Spy Museum

Noel Field betrayed his country and crushed his family. Once a well-meaning and privileged American, Field spied for Stalin during the 1930s and '40s. Used as a pawn in Stalin's sinister master strategy, he was ultimately kidnapped and tortured by the KGB and forced to testify against his own Communist comrades. Join journalist Kati Marton, author of True Believer, as she explains how this Ivy League-educated, US State Department employee, deeply rooted in American culture and history, became a hardcore Stalinist. With a reporter's eye for detail and a historian's grasp of the cataclysmic events of the twentieth century, Marton will discuss how she uncovered Field's quest for a life of meaning that went horribly wrong through her unprecedented access to Field family correspondence, Soviet Secret Police records, and reporting on key players including Alger Hiss, CIA Director Allen Dulles, World War II spy master "Wild Bill" Donovan, and Josef Stalin himself. No registration is required. Tickets: FREE. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 5 October 2016, 7-10pm – Washington, DC – Dinner with a Spy: An Evening with Naveed Jamali – at the International Spy Museum

For three nerve-wracking years, Naveed Jamali spied on the United States for the Russians – or so the Russians believed. By trading thumb drives of sensitive technical data for envelopes of cash, he pretended to sell out his own country across noisy restaurant tables and in quiet parking lots. Although he had no formal espionage training, with the help of an initially reluctant FBI duo he ended up at the center of a highly successful counterintelligence operation that targeted Russian espionage in New York City. With Putin's latest moves a frequent headline and political hot topic, Jamili, author of How to Catch a Russian Spy, will share how his unbelievable but true post-college adventure became a real-life US counterintelligence coup and the subject of an upcoming film. Over a quiet restaurant table, International Spy Museum historian Vince Houghton will debrief Jamali about his unlikely espionage exploits and how it feels to have your true story named one of the Washington Post's funniest books of 2015. You will be one of only twenty guests at Rosa Mexicano for this festive four-course dinner including "the best guacamole in the world." Tickets for the general public: $225 (includes four-course modern Mexican dinner with margaritas, sangria, wine, and beer). Visit www.spymuseum.org

Tuesday, 11 October 2016, 6:30pm – Washington, DC – The Lives of Guy Burgess: An Evening with Andrew Lownie – at the International Spy Museum

Perhaps the most complex of the Cambridge Spies, Guy Burgess was an engaging and charming companion to many and an unappealing, utterly ruthless manipulator to others. Recruited by the Soviets as a young man in the 1930s, he rose through academia, the BBC, the Foreign Office, MI5 and MI6, to gain access to thousands of highly sensitive secret documents which he passed to the USSR. Join Andrew Lownie, the author of Stalin's Englishman, formerly the London representative of the Washington-based National Intelligence Study Centre, as he discusses how even Burgess's chaotic personal life of drunken philandering did not stop him from espionage. Lownie interviewed more than a hundred people who knew Burgess personally, many for the first time, and used hitherto secret files to reveal how even under suspicion, Burgess's fabled charm—which had enabled many close personal relationships with influential figures including Churchill—prevented his exposure for many years. Stalin's Englishman, which in Great Britain was a 2015 Book or Biography of the Year in the Times, Guardian, Daily Mail, Spectator and BBC History Magazine, will be available for sale and signing at the event. Tickets for the general public: $10. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 19 October 2016, noon – Washington, DC – Hot Topics Series - Global Terrorism, Espionage and Cybersecurity Monthly Update – at the International Spy Museum

Be the first to learn the latest intelligence news! Join David Major, retired supervisory special agent of the FBI and former director of Counterintelligence and Security Programs at the NSC staff at the White House, for a briefing on the hottest intelligence and security issues, breaches, and penetrations. Presented in partnership with The Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies (CI Centre), these updates will cover worldwide events such as breaking espionage cases and arrest reports, cyber espionage incidents, and terrorist activity. Major uses his expertise to analyze trends and highlight emerging issues of interest to both intelligence and national security professionals and the public. Cases are drawn from the CI Centre's SPYPEDIA®, the most comprehensive source of espionage information in the world, containing events and information that may not be reported by mainstream media outlets. Tickets: FREE. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 19 October 2016, 8 am - 3 pm - Laurel, MD - Paul Goldenberg, John Farmer and Distinguished Panelists address "Combating Domestic Terrorism" at this National Cryptologic Museum Foundation's 18th Annual Symposium and Membership Meeting

This year's NCMF's Annual Symposium looks at "Combating Domestic Terrorism" featuring Paul Goldenberg, CEO, Cardinal Point Strategies, Co-Chair of the DHS Foreign Fighter Task Force and Co-Chair of the DHS Faith-Based Security Council. He will be joined by his associate, John Farmer, Professor of Law and Special Counsel to the President of Rutgers University and former Attorney General of New Jersey in providing their unique insights on their work in Belgium and other parts of Europe following the recent terrorism events there.
We also have an exciting lineup of speakers for the afternoon session which will feature a notable panel of local law enforcement officials who will offer their perspective on protecting Maryland's citizens, property and information in the wake of terrorism and domestic unrest.
Panel Members are: Kemp Ensor, NSA Associate Director of Security and Counterintelligence; Kevin Perkins, FBI Special Agent in Charge, Baltimore Field Office; Col. William Pallozzi, Superintendent, Maryland State Police, and panel moderator Richard C. Schaeffer, President, National Cryptologic Museum Foundation.
Also joining the afternoon discussions will be Ronald Lee, Partner, Arnold & Porter LLP and former NSA General Counsel and Associate Deputy Attorney General of the Department of Justice, speaking on protecting the privacy rights of US citizens in the fight against terrorism.
REGISTRATION and NCMF exhibits open at 0800. A continental breakfast will be available from 0800-0900 and lunch will be served from 1200-1300. Speaker presentations run 0900-1500.
LOCATION: Event will be held at Johns Hopkins University/APL Kossiakoff Center, 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, MD 20723. Once you reach the APL at Johns Hopkins Rd, Turn right on Pond Road, just past the service station. Follow the signs to the Kossiakoff Center parking on the lower lot. The lower level parking lot near the Kossiakoff Center is recommended and a shuttle service will operate from 0745-1530 for your convenience. More granular driving directions are available here.
ALL PRESENTATIONS ARE NON-ATTRIBUTION AND RECORDING DEVICES ARE PROHIBITED.
The fee for NCMF members is $30 and guests $60 (includes a one-year guest membership). Register online at www.cryptologicfoundation.org. Registration closes on Friday, 14 October. Or you may mail-in your registration fee to NCMF, P.O. Box 1682, Fort George G. Meade, MD 20755-9998.

28 - 29 October 2016 - The Hague, Netherlands - "Witness to Change: Intelligence Analysis in a Changing Environment" is topic of the NISA 25th Anniversary Conference

The Netherlands Intelligence Studies Association (NISA) celebrates its 25th anniversary with a two-days conference. Main theme is the strongly changed environment of the intelligence analyst during these past 25 years.
In other words: the 25th anniversary as a symbol for the revolutionary changes in the intelligence world with which analysts have to deal; both external developments (the onset of a multipolar world, asymmetric conflicts, the information revolution), and internal changes (in collecting, processing, dissemination, legitimization and supervision).
These developments forced intelligence analysts and organisations to adapt work processes and methods and techniques. Intelligence analysts still mostly operate in secret, but the demands of intelligence consumers and the public have changed over the last 25 years. Social and technological developments have changed the playing field and the rules of the game for the intelligence analyst, leading to an enormous growth in (publicly) available information and means of communication, and demands for more transparency and accountability. Aim of the conference is to touch on the consequences of this changed environment, and to look ahead.

Participants are invited to listen to distinguished experts in the field, and to enter into discussions on various topics relating to intelligence analysis.

The Conference will be held at the Nationaal Archief (the National Archive), Prins Willem Alexanderhof 20, The Hague, the Netherlands.
The conference program may be viewed here as a PDF.

Conference Fee: Standard Fee: Eur175; Student Fee: Eur80 (proof of status required). Fee covers registration, lunch and drinks.
To join the Conference Diner on Friday 28 October 2016, an extra fee of Eur30 is applicable.

To Register: For registration: fill this form. After registration you will receive further information as regards payment of the conference fee and the programme. There is a limited number of seats. Registration for the conference will close on 15 October 2016.
For further information please send an e-mail to 25yearsnisa@gmail.com

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