Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Italian Court Convicts 3 Americans in CIA Kidnapping Case. A Milan appeals court on Friday vacated acquittals for a former CIA station chief and two other Americans, and instead convicted them in the 2003 abduction of an Egyptian terror suspect from a Milan street as part of the CIA's extraordinary rendition program.

The appeals court sentenced former CIA Rome station chief Jeffrey Castelli to seven years, and handed sentences of six years each to Americans Betnie Medero and Ralph Russomando. All three were tried in absentia at both levels. A lower court that convicted 23 other Americans in 2009 had previously acquitted the three citing diplomatic immunity.

The November 2009 convictions, which were held up on two levels of appeal, were the first anywhere in the world against CIA actors involved in a practice alleged to have led to torture.

None of the Americans tried in Italy have ever been in Italian custody, but they risk arrest if they travel to Europe and lawyers have in the past suggested that final verdicts would open the way for the Italian government to seek their extradition. No such action has yet been taken. [Read more: Barry/AP/1February2013]

Mini Drones: Army Deploys Tiny Helicopters. British troops are using a nano drone just 10cm long and weighing 16 grams on the front line in Afghanistan to provide vital information on the ground.

They are the first to use the state-of-the-art handheld tiny surveillance helicopters, which relay reliable full motion video and still images back to the devices' handlers in the battlefield.

The Black Hornet Nano Unmanned Air Vehicle is the size of a child's toy, measuring just 10cm (4 ins) by 2.5cm (1 inch), and is equipped with a tiny camera.

Soldiers use the mini drone to peer around corners or over walls to identify any hidden threats and the images are relayed to a small screen on a handheld terminal.

Sergeant Christopher Petherbridge, of the Brigade Reconnaissance Force in Afghanistan, said: "Black Hornet is definitely adding value, especially considering the light weight nature of it.

"We used it to look for insurgent firing points and check out exposed areas of the ground before crossing, which is a real asset. It is very easy to operate and offers amazing capability to the guys on the ground." [Read more: SkyNews/4February2013]

Joint Chiefs Chairman Adds National Intelligence University to Professional Education Options for Military Officers. For the first time in more than a decade, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff added a school to the list of Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) opportunities for military officers. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin E. Dempsey authorized the National Intelligence University (NIU) to grant JPME Phase I credit to graduate students who complete the university's JPME curriculum.

In the memorandum announcing his approval, General Dempsey noted that the NIU curriculum "provides today's officer corps with an ability to overcome diverse 21st century security challenges and operate effectively in a joint, interagency, intergovernmental, and multinational environment." The NIU becomes the 17th school authorized to grant JPME Phase I credit and the first school since 9/11 to receive this approval. The last program accredited was the Army War College's non-resident curriculum in February 1999.

JPME is a collection of joint learning objectives comprising the educational requirement for an officer to earn a Joint Specialty Officer designation. The JPME Phase I curriculum, taught at the intermediate and senior service college level, emphasizes the fundamentals needed in joint operations from the component's perspective. [Read more: DIA/4January2013]

DIA Employees Instructed To Doll Themselves Up. Like something out of a nightmarish 1970s fashion timewarp, employees for the Defense Intelligence Agency [DIA] were recently given gender specific fashion advice during a demonstration called "How to Dress for Success" in the workplace. It was intended to be an informal event, discussing helpful ways to achieve the most out of success. In an effort to suggest ways to improve outward appearance, the briefing drew some criticism. Suggestions were considered inappropriate and highly offensive, especially to the women in attendance.

Statements were made in the seminar regarding female employees, encouraging them to "avoid being plain or ordinary in appearance." They were urged to practice "walking in heels, having painted nails, wear vibrant colors, donning clothing more flattering to their femininity, and wearing make-up more often."

Attendants were told: "Makeup makes you more attractive... A sweater with a skirt is better than a sweater with slacks. No flats. Don't be a Plain Jane."

The presentation came the same week the Department of Defense [DoD] announced women would be permitted in combat positions. There was an immediate backlash, followed by an apology issued by DIA Director Flynn for the inappropriate and insensitive message that did not reflect the values of DIA. Having substance in the brain is more important than bright gaudy paint on the nails. [Read more: TheInquisitr/4February2013]

Military Intelligence Leader Tours Wright-Patt as Budget Cuts Loom. The leader of the nation's military intelligence agency toured the National Air and Space Intelligence Center to learn more about the secretive center's missions, and how massive defense cuts might impact capabilities officials said are vital to national security.

Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, Defense Intelligence Agency director, and U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Dayton, visited NASIC on Monday as debate in Washington, D.C., swirls over the possibility of automatic, across-the-board defense spending reductions that could be triggered March 1. Without a deal between Congress and President Barack Obama to avert the cuts, the reductions would amount to nearly $500 billion over a decade in addition to $487 billion in cuts already planned to defense spending.

Flynn, a three-star Army general, became DIA director in July. The visit marked his first to NASIC.

"This is one of our crown jewels," he told reporters a press conference at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. "It's one of our really, really vital components of our national security structure." [Read more: Barber/DaytonDailyNews/4February2013]

Report Says 54 Countries Helped C.I.A. After 9/11. Some 54 countries helped facilitate the Central Intelligence Agency's secret detention, rendition and interrogation program in the years after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, according to a new human rights report that documents broad international involvement in the American campaign against Al Qaeda.

The report, to be made public Tuesday by the Open Society Justice Initiative, a rights advocacy group, is the most detailed external account of other countries' assistance to the United States, including things like permitting the C.I.A. to run secret interrogation prisons on their soil and allowing the agency to use their airports for refueling while moving prisoners around the world.

The report identifies 136 people who had been held or transferred by the C.I.A., the largest list compiled to date, and describes what is known about when and where they were held. It adds new detail to what is known about the handling of both dedicated Qaeda operatives and innocent people caught up by accident in the global machinery of counterterrorism.

Some of the harsh interrogation methods the C.I.A. used on prisoners under President George W. Bush have been widely denounced as torture, including by President Obama, who banned such techniques. In addition, some prisoners subjected to extraordinary rendition - transferred from one country to another without any legal process - were sent to countries where torture is standard practice.

Such operations remain the subject of fierce debate, with former Bush administration officials asserting that they were necessary to keep the country safe and critics saying the brutal interrogation techniques were illegal and ineffective. [Read more: Shane/NYTimes/4February2013]

Turkish Police had Intelligence Before Blast at U.S. Embassy: Turkish President. Turkish security officials had the intelligence about a possible attack by the outlawed Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front [DHKP/C], but was not able to prevent the suicide bomb blast at U.S. Embassy in Ankara last Friday, Turkish President Abdullah Gul said Monday.

"Both our police department and intelligence service were on alert about the fact that this terror organization was seeking to launch an attack. But unfortunately, they could not prevent it, and the attack against the embassy took place," Gul said at a joint press conference with his visiting Serbian counterpart Tomislav Nikolic.

A suicide bomber from DHKP/C, Ecevit Sanli, attacked the U.S. Embassy in Ankara last Friday, killing himself and Turkish security guard Mustafa Akarsu. [Read more: Whittle/Xinhua/2February2013]

Fight Over Tommy Douglas Intelligence File Not About History: Feds. The federal government says there is "no issue of public importance" involved in a seven-year battle to lift the shroud of secrecy over the intelligence dossier compiled on socialist trailblazer Tommy Douglas. 

Hence, the government says there's no need for the Supreme Court of Canada to intervene to settle the matter. 

Jim Bronskill, a reporter with The Canadian Press, is seeking leave to appeal the case to the country's highest court. 

He has been fighting since 2005 for access to the decades-old, 1,142-page intelligence file compiled on Douglas by the now-defunct RCMP Security Service. 

Bronskill's lawyer, Paul Champ, has asked the top court to determine the appropriate balance between protecting national security and the public's right to see historical documents. [Read more: BrydenCanadianPress/5February2013]

U.S. Geologist's "Spy" Cameras Confiscated in Nepal. Video cameras bolted into a glacial peak at roughly 4,800 meters in the Himalayas have touched off a small international incident that has derailed a U.S. researcher's PhD work.

"A reporter claimed [the cameras] were used to spy on China - since we're so close to the border - and so the government confiscated them," says Ulyana Horodyskyj, a geologist at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The accusation was made with much fanfare on Nepalese television, reflecting a relationship with the neighboring Tibet region of China that is at times tenuous.

In June 2011 Horodyskyj installed the time-lapse video cameras high in the Ngozumpa Glacier in Nepal where they could look down on interior glacial lakes, recording snippets every four hours for several weeks. Early in summer 2012 she sent local Sherpas to retrieve the cameras' data cards and install new ones. When she and other researchers worldwide viewed the recorded footage they were stunned to see that the big lakes emptied through crevasses in just two days and then refilled in less than a week, again and again. The regular purging indicates that far more ice is melting than previously thought.

This past November Horodyskyj returned to Nepal to hike all the way back up to the research site, which is located in a national park, when she heard from a ranger that rumors were going around about her cameras. Horodyskyj reached the peaks only to find they were gone. [Read more: Fischetti/ScientificAmerican/5February2013]

MI5 Chief: Internet Means Terrorists Could be Slipping Through the Net. Jonathan Evans, the Director General of MI5, said it was increasingly difficult to be confident that targets were being fully watched.

His comments come amid a row over Government plans to allow the police, security and intelligence agencies the power to monitor every email, phone call and web visit.

The Coalition has been split over the plans with tension between Theresa May, the Home Secretary, and Nick Clegg, the deputy Prime Minister, who believes the proposals go too far.

The parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee [ISC] today supported the proposals but said the government must do more to convince public of the need for them.

Mr. Evans gave evidence in private to the ISC, parts of which were made public in a report today. [Read more: Whitehead/TheTelegraph/5February2013]

Army Officer Gets Transferred as Espionage Probe Spreads. The Ministry of National Defense [MND] said Tuesday that an Army officer has been transferred after one of his relatives was found to have been allegedly involved in an espionage case.

Media reports said Army Maj. Gen. Wu Chin-chun, who originally headed the MND's legislative liaison office, was transferred to a non-leadership position last week over his relative's alleged involvement in the case in which Chang Chih-hsin, a former chief officer in charge of political warfare at the Naval Meteorology Oceanography [METOC] Office, was detained last September on suspicion of obtaining classified information through former military colleagues and using it for illegal gains.

MND spokesman Mag. Gen. Luo Shou-he said Wu had been temporarily reassigned to help with the investigation into his relative's alleged role in the case. He did not elaborate.

Wu, reportedly a trusted aide to Defense Minister Kao Hua-chu, was the second senior military officer to be named in as many days as having been transferred after being accused of involvement in Chang's suspected leaks of submarine nautical charts to China. [Read more: FocusTaiwan/5February2013]

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

'Argo' Producer Scours for the Next Stranger-Than-Fiction Story. Hunched over a desk in his spartan Westwood apartment, David Klawans squints at his computer monitor and knits his brow in concentration. "I'm perusing," he says.

His eyes dart between headlines almost indecipherable on a Web page displaying about 800 stamp-sized images of newspapers from 90 different countries.

"Two kids running? What's that?" he exclaims before clicking on a photo. "Oh, it's refugees. Whatever. Moving on."

Nearly every day, for upward of 10-hour stretches, the independent film producer speed-reads police blogs, articles from RSS feeds and niche-interest journals in dogged pursuit of an elusive prize: a story on which to base his next movie.

His biggest hit to date is "Argo." Before the film landed seven Oscar nominations [including one for best picture] and two Golden Globes [including best drama picture], before it generated more than $180 million in worldwide grosses, "Argo" existed as a declassified story in the quarterly CIA journal Studies in Intelligence, which Klawans happens to have been perusing one day in 1998.

"It's like going on the beach with a metal detector," the self-described news junkie says of his process. "Like Kanye West looks through records to sample on his songs, I'm looking for stories to turn into films." [Read more: Lee/LATimes/28January2013]

Wanted: Students for Intelligence Field. Gene Poteat knew nothing about the CIA when he developed missile guidance in the 1950s on the Space Coast.

But the engineer with Bell Telephone Laboratories had a crucial skill needed to keep track of Soviet missile development during the Cold War.

"When they were trying to talk to me about going into the CIA, I didn�t even know what it was," said Poteat, president of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers.

"It turned out one of the best places to get that (expertise) was here in the area of Cape Canaveral, and I was lucky enough to be one of those people that was interviewed when I worked at the Cape."

Poteat was the guest speaker Saturday at the AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter meeting at Indian River Colony Club, where he detailed moments in history when espionage played an important role behind the scenes.

One of the objectives of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers, which has about 5,000 members nationally, is to create interest in high school and college students for U.S. intelligence careers.

The Florida Satellite Chapter connects and mentors students in Brevard County and wants to expand their outreach.

"We are trying to revitalize the chapter," said Jack Lee, vice president of the Brevard-based chapter with about 40 members. [Read more: Gunnerson/FloridaToday/2February2013]

The Spy Novelist Who Knows Too Much. Last June, a pulp-fiction thriller was published in Paris under the title "Le Chemin de Damas." Its lurid green-and-black cover featured a busty woman clutching a pistol, and its plot included the requisite car chases, explosions and sexual conquests. Unlike most paperbacks, though, this one attracted the attention of intelligence officers and diplomats on three continents. Set in the midst of Syria's civil war, the book offered vivid character sketches of that country's embattled ruler, Bashar al-Assad, and his brother Maher, along with several little-known lieutenants and allies. It detailed a botched coup attempt secretly supported by the American and Israeli intelligence agencies. And most striking of all, it described an attack on one of the Syrian regime's command centers, near the presidential palace in Damascus, a month before an attack in the same place killed several of the regime's top figures. "It was prophetic," I was told by one veteran Middle East analyst who knows Syria well and preferred to remain nameless. "It really gave you a sense of the atmosphere inside the regime, of the way these people operate, in a way I hadn't seen before." 

The book was the latest by G�rard de Villiers, an 83-year-old Frenchman who has been turning out the S.A.S. espionage series at the rate of four or five books a year for nearly 50 years. The books are strange hybrids: top-selling pulp-fiction vehicles that also serve as intelligence drop boxes for spy agencies around the world. De Villiers has spent most of his life cultivating spies and diplomats, who seem to enjoy seeing themselves and their secrets transfigured into pop fiction [with their own names carefully disguised], and his books regularly contain information about terror plots, espionage and wars that has never appeared elsewhere. Other pop novelists, like John le Carr� and Tom Clancy, may flavor their work with a few real-world scenarios and some spy lingo, but de Villiers's books are ahead of the news and sometimes even ahead of events themselves. Nearly a year ago he published a novel about the threat of Islamist groups in post-revolutionary Libya that focused on jihadis in Benghazi and on the role of the C.I.A. in fighting them. The novel, [Les Fous de Benghazi,] came out six months before the death of the American ambassador, J. Christopher Stevens, and included descriptions of the C.I.A. command center in Benghazi [a closely held secret at that time], which was to become central in the controversy over Stevens's death. Other de Villiers books have included even more striking auguries. [Read more: Worth/NYTimes/30January2013]

Meet the American Company Helping Governments Spy on "Billions" of Communications. Every day, billions of emails and phone calls flow through communications networks in countries across the world. Now, one American company has built technology capable of spying on them all - and business is booming.

Verint, a leading manufacturer of surveillance technologies, is headquartered in Melville, N.Y., in a small cluster of nondescript buildings that also includes the office of a multinational cosmetics supplier and some electronics companies.

Among Verint's products are unremarkable security cameras and systems that enable call center managers to monitor their workers. But it also sells some of the world's most sophisticated eavesdropping equipment, creating a line of spy tools designed to help governments and intelligence agencies snoop on communications across an entire country.

Verint sells what it calls "monitoring centers" that "enable the interception, monitoring, and analysis of target and mass communications over virtually any network." These systems are designed to be integrated within a country's communications infrastructure and, according to Verint's website, are currently used in more than 75 nations. [Read more: Gallagher/Slate/30January2013]

The CIA And The Hazards Of Middle East Forecasting. Government agencies do not often acknowledge their own errors, but the CIA has done just that with the declassification of intelligence memoranda on the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

The documents show that agency analysts, down to the last minute before the outbreak of fighting, were assuring President Nixon, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and other policymakers that Egypt and Syria were unlikely to attack Israel.

Those assessments, in the words of a CIA postmortem report from December 1973, "were - quite simply, obviously, and starkly - wrong." Nearly 40 years later, the CIA analysts responsible for those judgments say they are still troubled by their mistakes.

The declassified CIA documents, released during a conference last week at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, Calif., show that agency analysts had abundant signs that Egypt and Syria were preparing to attack Israel, but disregarded the evidence, considering the war scenario too implausible. [Read more: Gjelten/NPR/4February2013]

Section III - COMMENTARY

What To Do About Chinese Cyber Espionage? A few days after the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post all admitted that their computer networks had been attacked, apparently by China-based hackers, it seems fair to say that both sides agree the "naming and shaming" approach to the problem is not working. The United States can call China out, but it has no real affect on behavior.

In one of the interviews she did in her last days as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton said that "We have to begin making it clear to the Chinese - they're not the only people hacking us or attempting to hack us - that the United States is going to have to take action to protect not only our government, but our private sector, from this kind of illegal intrusions." But as Jack Goldsmith notes, the use of "begin" is puzzling: administration officials say they have raised the point with their Chinese counterparts numerous times before. Perhaps Clinton's statement should be read with less emphasis on "making it clear" and more on "have to take action." The National Intelligence Council is reportedly finishing a National Intelligence Estimate detailing the cyber threat, particularly from China, and suggesting concrete measures the United States may take, including cancelling visas and vetting "major purchases of Chinese goods through national security reviews."

Several commentaries and an article in the People's Daily all suggest that Beijing is not reacting to the public announcements with anything approaching shame. In fact, they all portray the claims as part of an effort to discredit China and distract from the offensive actions the United States is taking in cyberspace. The People's Daily notes that while the United States is portraying itself as the "patron saint of the free Internet" it has plans to expand U.S. Cyber Command fivefold. He Hui, deputy director at the Communication University of China, argues that the claims about Chinese hacking are getting tiresome and in fact serve three alternate purposes: they raise suspicion about China's rise in the United States and the rest of the world; help raise defense budgets, especially for cyber weapons; and justify protectionist trade measures against Chinese firms that are beginning to challenge the big American companies.

All of these articles suggest a real problem in the U.S.-China cyber relationship: it seems to be happening primarily through the media. [Read more: Segal/CFR/4February2013]

Section IV - Books and Film, Obituaries, Research Requests, Announcements and Coming Events

Books and Film

Israel's 'Gatekeepers'. In the hierarchy of Israeli intelligence agencies, the Shin Bet is the equivalent of the blue-collar worker. While Mossad handles the dazzling overseas operations - abducting a former Nazi or assassinating nuclear scientists - the Shin Bet for almost a half century has managed the dirty work of Israel's dominion over millions of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Most Palestinians view Israel as a colonial intruder, the way, say, Algerians viewed France. To tamp down Palestinian rebellions and foil attacks on Israelis, Shin Bet operatives have regularly engaged in some unsavory measures - rough interrogations and targeted killings, to name two - all in the service of maintaining Israel's grip over territories it captured in the 1967 war. 

So it comes as something of a surprise to hear not just one but six retired Shin Bet chiefs articulate exceedingly pragmatic views in The Gatekeepers, an Oscar-nominated Israeli documentary being released in the U.S. on Feb. 1. The six, who sat down for interviews with filmmaker Dror Moreh, believe Israel has paid a steep political and moral price for its occupation of the West Bank [Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005]. To varying degrees, all six think Israeli leaders should be doing more to advance peace with the Palestinians. "I know about plenty of junctures since 1967 when in my view ... we should have reached an agreement and ran away from there," Yaakov Peri, who headed the Shin Bet from 1988 to 1994, says in the film. "But ... it's not part of the mandate of an agency chief to persuade a prime minister [to make peace]."

Through the interviews and archival footage, the film offers a narrative of Israel's turbulent decades since '67, a period that included Palestinian terrorism and insurrections, the rise of the Israeli settler movement, and the assassination of a prime minister. In all the events, the Shin Bet [also known in Hebrew as Shabak and in English as the General Security Service] played a key role. Though the details emerge through the story-telling of the retired chiefs, the film somehow manages to paint a nuanced picture of the intelligence service, including its brutalities and cover-ups. [Read more: Ephron/Newsweek/5February2013]

Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin. On February 6, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host the launch of Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin by Brookings Senior Fellows Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy. The event will be live webcast from 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM EST. Participants can follow the discussion on Twitter using hashtag #MrPutin.

Who is Vladimir Putin? Observers have described him as a "man from nowhere"-someone without a face, substance, or soul. In Mr. Putin, Russia experts Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy argue that Putin is in fact a man of many and complex identities. Drawing on a range of sources, including their own personal encounters, they describe six that are most essential: the Statist, the History Man, the Survivalist, the Outsider, the Free Marketeer, and the Case Officer. Understanding Putin's multiple dimensions is crucial for policymakers trying to decide how best to deal with Russia.

Hill and Gaddy trace the identities back to formative experiences in Putin's past, including his early life in Soviet Leningrad, his KGB training and responsibilities, his years as deputy mayor in the crime and corruption ridden city of St. Petersburg, his first role in Moscow as the "operative" brought in from the outside by liberal reformers in the Kremlin to help control Russia's oligarchs, and his time at the helm of a resurgent Russian state. The authors then examine the nature of the political system Putin has built, explaining it as a logical result of these six identities. [Read more: Brookings/18December2012]

Obituaries

William "Bill" J. Hood: Bill Hood, life member of AFIO, died of a stroke, Sunday, 27 January 2013, at age 92, in Long Island, NY. Bill Hood was one of the heroes of OSS and CIA, a major figure and leader in the clandestine services over three decades, a member of Allen Dulles' war-time team and a successful and inspiring leader of operations in Central Europe and at Headquarters. Bill gained fame early based on his role in the handling of an important Soviet defector in Vienna. His subsequent account of the operation was later published as the "Mole". He also wrote several books of fiction based on some of his experiences in Central Europe and co-authored the memoirs of Central Intelligence Agency Director Richard Helms, with the title "A Look Over My Shoulder." Mr. Hood retired from CIA in 1973 as Executive Officer of the Counter-Intelligence Staff. Of impressive size and appearance, he focused on the development and training of the younger generations of operations officers serving with him in Vienna. All of them became Station Chiefs and made it into the supergrades. Mr. Hood had an active, adventurous and productive career in OSS and CIA, collecting human source intelligence over a period of thirty years. Those years and experiences cannot be repeated, but readers of John Le Carre can be assured that some fiction can be as interesting as real life operations in post World War Two Europe.  -- Tom Polgar.

Research Requests
 [IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse these research inquiries or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information.]

Help with PhD Research

Dear Fellow Members, I am a former CIA Clandestine Service Operations Officer [and current Naval Intelligence Officer] seeking assistance with my PhD research. Specifically, I am a doctoral candidate at the University of Cambridge under the supervision of leading Intelligence Historian Christopher Andrew. I am examining the synergy and discord in the US-UK intelligence relationship during the Cold War. I'm especially interested in the Anglo-American "Special Relationship" as a force-multiplier. 

In order to contextualize the archives and make the documents come alive, I'd like to incorporate oral interviews as a part of my research. I'd be particularly interested in speaking with former intelligence officers from either side of the Atlantic [CIA, DIA, NSA, FBI, MI5, MI6, GCHQ, JIC, etc] who worked with their US/UK counterparts on a collaborative basis. I have served as Chief of Liaison in an overseas CIA Station and am keenly aware that the declassified documents [HQS to field and back] do not tell the whole story. I'd be willing to work under sensible restrictions and also have any material reviewed before academic submission. If you have worked with your US/UK colleagues during the Cold War, speaking with you, even informally, would be a true boon to my research. I can be reached at dvg21@cam.ac.uk or david.v.gioe@us.army.mil. 

With many thanks, David V. Gioe, Lieutenant Commander, US Navy, PhD Candidate in Intelligence History, University of Cambridge, UK

Your Forecasts Sought: IARPA Has Five More Special ForecastingTopics Needing Your Online Responses:

IARPA released 5 new forecasting problems today, one of which closes in less than three weeks:

• 1194. Will a measurable* Syrian military force invade or enter Israel between 4 February 2013 and 1 April 2013?
• 1195. Will a measurable* Israeli military force invade or enter Syria between 4 February 2013 and 1 April 2013?
• 1196. Will any foreign or multinational military force significantly* attack North Korea before 1 April 2013?
• 1197. Will a foreign state or multinational coalition officially announce a no-fly zone over Syria before 1 January 2014?
• 1198. Will Egypt lift the state of emergency in Port Said, Suez, and Ismailiya before 25 February 2013? 

As always, when you visit our site to make forecasts to these new questions, please also take a moment to review and update your prior forecasts. You may want to use the "Quick Surveys" page to get a convenient overview of your existing forecasts.

To help you with your forecasting, our subject matter expert has reviewed the remaining open questions and identified those where there is significant uncertainty or the risk of surprise events. We also provide recent news on other open questions at a single view. Please visit this analysis in our shared subject workspace in the "Occasional Analyses" section.

If you have any problems accessing our sites, please send an email to ace.support@jacobs.com for support or use the "Help" section.

We thank you all for your support! Comments to Sven Brueckner, (INFORMED Project Manager) at Sven.Brueckner@jacobs.com

Announcements
 [IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse these research inquiries or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information.]

Looking for Intelligence Officers for Reality Television Show.

Dear AFIO, We really appreciate the interest in our request for Intelligence Agency personnel. We represent a production company based in Los Angeles. We require 12 Intelligence Agency Personnel [including ex Navy Seals etc.] each preferably from a different agency, to participate in a global television program. It is a different type of reality program where the skill and cunning of real veterans of the world's best known espionage agencies are teamed with extraordinary real people to find and secure a million dollars. Filming will be global and would take around 20 weeks. Participants will be remunerated as well as receiving 50% of the million dollars if you win.

No one will be required to discuss anything except subjects directly related to this event.

If you would like to be considered for this extraordinary adventure, could you please forward to me a brief resume and a headshot. We appreciate your total secrecy please.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Bob Pritchard, bob@bobpritchard.com, ph: Toll Free: +1 866 990 4440, www.voiceamericabusiness.com, www.bobpritchard.com

Coming Educational Events

EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

MANY Spy Museum Events in 2013 with full details are listed on the AFIO Website at www.afio.com. The titles for some of these are in detail below and online.

Wednesday, 6 February 2013 - Washington, DC - Intrigue in Vienna: An Evening Inspired by The Third Man - sponsored by the International Spy Museum

The Vienna sewers, the Giant Ferris Wheel in the Prater, Orson Welles, and the haunting theme music of Anton Karas – In 1949, the iconic masterpiece The Third Man showed a mysterious and intriguing side of Vienna previously unseen on the big screen. Remembering this time of exciting adventures, elusive truths, and sheer elegance, the International Spy Museum together with the Embassy of Austria are hosting a Third Man themed event. For one evening, you will have the unique opportunity to immerse yourself in this thrilling world of secrets, spies, and mysteries while discovering the Vienna of the Cold War era. The event will feature original artifacts, multimedia presentations, as well as notable speakers. So join us for this night of great suspense and action but always remember: Trust No One.
WHERE: L2 Lounge, 3315 Cady's Alley NW, Washington, DC 20007
TICKETS: $25. To register or for more information visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesdays, 6 - 27 February 2013 10 am - Washington, DC - "Spy Seminar Series: Exfiltrations, Captures, or Kills: Famous High Stakes Intelligence Operations" at the International Spy Museum

Intelligence operations that hold human life in the balance are some of the most difficult missions any intelligence service will ever undertake. Exfiltrations are supremely delicate. This is the process of extracting a person or people from a targeted site with absolute urgency due to a sudden change which makes the site hostile. This could happen when a spy's cover is blown or a change in leadership puts people in danger. Captures are just that: snaring an enemy. And lastly kills. Wet jobs. Assassinations. When the enemy is bad enough that termination is the only answer. In this series, a distinguished group of experts and former intelligence personnel will introduce you to some of the greatest of these intense operations.

February 6 - The Operation that Killed Osama bin Laden
When Osama bin Laden declared war against the United States for the first time to a Western audience, Peter Bergen was there. He produced Osama bin Laden's first television interview and has written extensively on the terrorist and on Al Qaeda. His book, Manhunt: the Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden—from 9/11 to Abbottabad focuses on the difficulty of finding the world's most dangerous man—the missed opportunities, the lucky breaks, and dedication of the people who finally tracked him down. Bergen will share his professional connection to bin Laden, what it was like to actually "know" him, and his thoughts on the execution and results of Operation Neptune Spear.

February 13 - How the Mossad Captured Eichmann
For 15 years the hunt for Eichmann, architect of the mass murder of Europe's Jews, stretched from war-ravaged Europe to the shores of Argentina. In researching his book, Hunting Eichmann, best-selling author Neal Bascomb gathered groundbreaking new information and interviews, and newly declassified documents to fully tell the story of how the notorious Nazi was brought to justice. He will reveal how the young Israeli spy agency, the Mossad, organized this colossal operation—dispatching operatives like Isser Harel and Zvi Aharoni on their harrowing mission to Argentina to capture and deliver Eichmann.

February 20 - Saving Ryszard Kuklinski
In 1972, Polish Colonel Ryszard Kuklinski volunteered to spy for the United States. His self-appointed mission: to undermine his country's Soviet-dominated leadership to save Poland from nuclear destruction. Over the next nine years of high-risk, clandestine exchanges, he copied tens of thousands of secret documents and covertly passed them to the CIA—including plans to crush the Solidarity movement. Learn the inside story of this extraordinary case and of Kuklinski's last-minute, daring escape from International Spy Museum Executive Director, Peter Earnest, a former CIA officer who did unprecedented research into Agency records for Benjamin Wesier's A Secret Life: The Polish Officer, His Covert Mission, and the Price He Paid to Save His Country. Former CIA officer, Sue Burggraf, who worked with Kuklinski in Warsaw will also comment on the heroic Pole.

February 27 - Canadian Caper
International Spy Museum board member and former CIA chief of disguise Tony Mendez led the famous rescue of six Americans who were trapped in Iran after they had escaped from the US Embassy during the Iranian Hostage Crisis in 1979. Mendez came up with an ingenuous plan to get the Americans out by creating a fake movie called ARGO, setting up a cover film studio, and disguising them as a location scouting team from Canada. Mendez will take you behind the scenes of the operation, recently immortalized in the real film ARGO, from Canada's incredible support of the rescue to what kind of props he brought to make the Americans look more like film industry types.

WHERE: International Spy Museum: 800 F Street, NW Washington, DC Gallery Place/Chinatown Metrorail Station
TICKETS: Tickets: $120 (must be purchased through the Smithsonian)
To register: (via phone) 202.633.3030; (online) www.SmithsonianAssociates.org. Internet Quick Tix code for the program: 1M2-647. For more information visit www.spymuseum.org

Friday, 8 February 2013, 6 - 7:30 pm - Washington, DC - Africa and International Terrorism - by Kemal Okudo at the Institute of World Politics

You are cordially invited to a special lecture on the topic of Africa and International Terrorism with Kemal Okudo, National Security Consultant, IWP Class of 2009.
Kemal Okudo has over 23 years of cumulative and diversified executive and operational-level experience in banking, telecommunications, logistics, industrial security, and national security consulting. During his career, he has won awards as a banker; pioneered, designed and supervised the logistics and security functions at one of Nigeria's largest telephone companies (currently with over 30 million subscribers); and consulted for various national governments and global corporations in different areas of national security.
Where: The Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th St NW. Parking map is here.
RSVP and confirmation - required to attend. RSVP HERE

Wednesday, 13 February 2013, 11:30 am - 1:30 pm - Scottsdale, AZ - "Experience as an OSS Officer" featuring Robert Swift, at the AFIO Arizona Chapter

Guest Speaker will be Robert Swift, Ret. OSS Officer, on “Bob’s experience as an OSS Officer”
Bob was reading and transmitting code by age seven in the early 1930’s. His father and grandfather were both ham radio operators. He trained as a communicator with the OSS and was sent to Europe to support their operations against Germany. After the war Bob joined a new company in the communications business. He rose through the ranks to become an Executive Vice President in charge of International business and then chief of Staff to the Chairman of Motorola. Bob is now retired and lives in North Scottsdale with his wife Mary. Bob will share key aspects of the following: - OSS operations focused on Eastern Europe; - OSS support of 15th Air Force Bombing missions against German petroleum supplies and production, and; - Lessons learned from the Bari bombing disaster as well as lessons applicable to current intelligent operations.
Location: McCormick Ranch Golf Course, 7505 McCormick Parkway, Scottsdale AZ 85258 ~ Phone 480.948.0260.
RSVP simone@afioaz.org or simone@4smartphone.net. To call, please leave a message on 602.570.6016. Do so no later than 72 hours ahead of time. If you do not show up for the lunch meeting and failed to cancel 48 hours prior the chapter will be charged so, by necessity, you will be charged for the lunch.
Fee: $20 for Members; $22 Non-Members

Friday, 15 February 2013, 10:30am - 2pm - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National 2013 Luncheon features Spying in America by former D/NCS CIA Mike Sulick, and Intelligence Briefings of Presidential Candidates by former CIA Inspector General John L. Helgerson.

The former CIA Inspector General, John L. Helgerson, discusses "Intelligence Briefings of Presidential Candidates" and the former Director of the National Clandestine Service, Michael Sulick, presents - SPYING IN AMERICA: Espionage from the Revolutionary War to the Dawn of the Cold War - a history of more than thirty espionage cases inside the US.
Helgerson provides unique insights into the mechanics and content of these briefings of candidates, the interaction of the participants, and the briefings' effect on the relationships presidents have had with their intelligence services.
Sulick presents a number of espionage cases which include Americans who spied against their country, spies from both the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War, and foreign agents who ran operations on American soil. Some of the stories are familiar, such as those of Benedict Arnold and Julius Rosenberg, while others, though less well known, are equally fascinating. Mr. Sulick speaks at 11 a.m. Lunch at noon. Mr. Helgerson speaks at 1 pm. All attendees will receive a digital copy of the unclassified edition of John Helgerson's updated report on "Getting to Know The President."
REGISTER HERE.

Saturday, 16 February 2013, 2 pm - Kennebunk, ME - The Maine AFIO Chapter hears from Libya Expert - Dr. Ali Ahmida - on Libya Today - the impact of extremists and Arab Spring.

Dr. Ali Ahmida, Chairman of the Sociology Department at the University of New England, born in Libya, will speak about the geographical and tribal divisions of Libya, the eventual result of the "Arab Spring," and the relationship of Libya's government to the extremist groups which have entered the country. Dr. Ahmida was born in Waddan, Libya, and received his education at Cairo University in Egypt and the University of Washington in Seattle.  He has authored numerous books and articles including The Making of Modern Libya published in 2009.

The meeting, open to the public, will be held at the Brick Store Museum Progam Center, 2 Dane Street, Kennebunk. For information call 207-967-4298

Saturday 23 February 2013 - Orange Park/Gainesville, FL - AFIO North Florida Chapter hosts Terry Williams, former CIA, on A Spy Novel and the CIA Experience

The North Florida AFIO Chapter meets Saturday, 23 February rather than its customary date of 9 February. Starting time, schedule and location remain the same. Please RSVP to Quiel Begonia, Secretary/Treasurer at qbegonia@comcast.net or call 904-545-9549 as soon as you can so we can get an accurate head count and keep the country club happy.
Our guest speaker will be Mr. Terry Williams, who has just completed a spy novel that is salted with his years of CIA experience. Terry is a former CIA Operations Officer with over thirty years' experience conducting and managing covert operations in Asia, Europe and Eastern Europe. He served as Chief of Station in Taipei and Ottawa and as Chief of Base in Shanghai. He was the Deputy Chief of East Asia Division for Counterintelligence and did rotational assignments to the FBI and Capitol Hill. Prior to his tenure at the CIA, Williams served in the Peace Corps in Bogota, Colombia, taught at the University of San Carlos in Guatemala City, taught English to helicopter pilots and mechanics of the Imperial Iranian Air Force, and at a university in Tokyo, Japan.
Cooper's Revenge is his first novel. He is currently writing a sequel, Unit 400, to be released this year. Terry is a treasure trove of career experience. His Agency classmates include John Brennan, DCI candidate. We hope to see you at the meeting. Family and guests are cordially invited as well.

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, 7 - 10 pm – Washington, DC - "Dinner with a Spy: An Evening with Martha D. Peterson" at the International Spy Museum

Undercover at the US Embassy in Moscow in 1977, CIA officer Martha D. Peterson was one of the first female CIA case officers to serve there. Peterson discovered that she could move freely around Moscow without a trace of surveillance coverage, unlike her male CIA colleagues who were smothered by KGB surveillance teams. She became almost solely responsible for retrieving messages from a key spy in the Soviet Ministry of Foreign Affairs, code named TRIGON. She communicated for nearly 21 months with TRIGON through dead drops disguised as logs, dirty gloves, crushed milk cartons, and crumbly pieces of concrete. On the evening of July 15, shortly after Peterson placed a concrete concealment device filled with spy equipment in a tower on a railroad bridge, she suddenly found herself in the clutches of KGB agents. She was arrested and harshly interrogated. She refused to cooperate, held her ground, and ultimately was declared persona non grata and sent back to the US. Three KGB officers drove out to the airport to salute her plane in recognition of her composure during interrogation. Spend an evening with this heroic woman and learn what it was like to be caught and keep your cool! You will be one of only 14 guests at Adour for a four-course dinner and wine-pairing where you'll talk with her about her remarkable career and her thoughts on today's intelligence issues.
Peterson is the author of The Widow Spy which is recommended for pre-event reading.
Location: Adour, 923 16th St NW, Washington, DC 20006
Tickets: $250. Ticket includes four-course dinner with wines. Please call 202.654.0932 or write lhicken@spymuseum.org to register and with special dietary needs.

28 February 2013 - San Francisco, CA - "Defense Strategy for Acquisition and its Influence on Intelligence Gathering" is Lt. Col. William Chadwick's topic at AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter Luncheon.

Lt Col(R) William Chadwick , lecturer at The Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey, will be speaking on "Defense Strategy for Acquisition and its Influence on Intelligence Gathering." The luncheon begins at 11:30AM with no-host cocktails; meeting starts at noon. Location: The United Irish Cultural Center, 2700 45th Avenue, SF (between Sloat/Wawona). E-mail RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi at afiosf@aol.com and mail a check made out to "AFIO" to: Mariko Kawaguchi, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011. Members and students: $25; non-members $35.

Tuesday, 5 March 2013, noon - Washington, DC - "The Rice Paddy Navy: US Sailors Undercover in China" at the International Spy Museum

After the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1942, the US Navy knew it would need vital information from the Pacific. Captain Milton 'Mary' Miles journeyed to China to set up weather stations and monitor the Chinese coastline—and to spy on the Japanese. After a handshake agreement with Chiang Kai-shek's spymaster, General Dai Li, the Sino-American Cooperative Organization (SACO) was born. SACO consisted of nearly 3,000 American servicemen, 97,000 organized Chinese guerrillas, and 20,000 "individualists," including pirates and lone-wolf saboteurs. This top-secret network worked hand in hand with the Nationalist Chinese to fight the Japanese invasion of China while erecting crucial weather stations, providing critical information to the US military, intercepting Japanese communications, blowing up enemy supply depots, laying mines, destroying bridges, and training Chinese peasants in guerrilla warfare. Join author Linda Kush as she reveals the story of one of the most successful—and little known— covert operation efforts of World War II.
Join the author for an informal chat and book signing.
Tickets: Free! No registration required. For more information visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 6:30 p.m. - Washington, DC - "Blowing Blofeld's Mind: The Psychology of Villainy" at the International Spy Museum

All the greatest men are maniacs. –Dr. No
The Spy Museum's new exhibition, Exquisitely Evil: 50 Years of Bond Villains, features some of the most memorable fictional evildoers of the last half century. Many were inspired by real world figures or by the actions of real people who were really evil. What makes people move down a dark path? These experts can tell you exactly how Bond villains demonstrate classic criminal or otherwise aberrant psychological behavior based on their experiences with real offenders: Dr. David L. Charney,who was the psychiatrist for notorious spy Robert Hanssen and interviewed him extensively in prison; and Dr. Stanton Samenow, a noted forensic scientist and author of The Criminal Personality and Inside the Criminal Mind. Dr. Samenow was the prosecution's mental health witness regarding the younger DC sniper, Lee Boyd Malvo. Why would someone betray their country like Robert Hanssen or GoldenEye's Alec Trevelyan? How realistic is the Stockholm syndrome suffered by Elektra King in The World Is Not Enough? What makes people consider crime as a way of life? In this extraordinary conversation, you'll learn exactly how maudlin sentimentality—Blofeld's love for his cat—can coexist with chilling brutality.
Tickets:  $20. To register or for more information visit www.spymuseum.org

16 March 2013, 2 pm - Kennebunk, ME - The Maine AFIO Chapter hears from Amer Sami Abusada on "Palestine: A Student's View."

AFIO Maine welcomes Amer Sami Abusada as guest speaker on the topics of "Palestine: A Student's View." Amer is a non-muslim, 17-year-old, exchange student at Bonny Eagle High School, Buxton, Maine. He comes from Beit Sahour, Palestine, a small city not far from Bethlehem. After exposure to the American view of events in Palestine, gathered largely from press reports, Amer sensed the need to present another view and to correct misconceptions. His presentation includes selected pictures and videos, and will touch on the culture and lifestyle of the people, history of Palestine, the political situation, and what he calls "the wall of discrimination" from his perspective.
The meeting, open to the public, will be held at the Brick Store Museum Progam Center, 2 Dane Street, Kennebunk. For information call 207-967-4298

Thursday, 21 March 2013, 11:30 am – Colorado Springs, CO - "Bugs, snakes, rats, torture and the Sex Life of a Naval Aviator in the Hanoi Hilton" at the Rocky Mountain Chapter of AFIO

The title of this meeting would catch the attention of anyone! Attend to hear Capt John Michael McGrath, USN(R) talk about "Bugs, snakes, rats, torture and the Sex Life of a Naval Aviator in the Hanoi Hilton 1967-73." McGrath was a Vietnam POW for six years and has some remarkable accounts to share. Please RSVP to Tom VanWormer at robsmom@pcisys.net and also to obtain directionss.

27 March 2013 - New York, NY - "Circle of Treason" with Sandy Grimes, former CIA, at the AFIO NY Chapter Meeting

Sandy Grimes, one of the CIA principals behind the search and unmasking of Aldrich Ames - the traitor in their midst at CIA HQ - discusses in "Circle of Treason," her new book, co-authored with the late Jeanne Vertefeuille, this mole who nearly escaped capture. A remarkable story.
Location: Society of Illustrators 128 East 63rd St, New York City.
For further information contact Jerry Goodwin, Chapter President, at 646-717-3776 or email to afiometro@gmail.com

Wednesday, 27 March 2013 - Northampton, MA - "Typists to Trailblazers" - The History of Women's Advancement and Achievements at CIA

This CIA Historical Documents 'Release Event' Conference co-hosted with Smith College and features CIA’s women’s history month celebration. Speakers will discuss women's advancement, including Petticoat Panel Report, and other achievements that brought women into higher positions beyond the typing pool.
Additional program details to follow. Registration will be available here in coming weeks.
All AFIO members are invited.
REGISTER your interest in attending event by clicking email address at right to obtain additional details: events@afio.com

2 April 2013, 8 am - 3 pm - Washington, DC - CACI Hosts conference on Combating Asymmetric Threats: The Interplay of Offense and Defense

Discuss Asymmetric Threats on April 2 at an event co-sponsored by The U.S. Naval Institute, the Center for Security Policy, and CACI International Inc.
Participants will have a unique opportunity to explore America's capability to counter asymmetric threats by assessing the interplay of our nation's offensive and defensive powers. In particular, we will examine whether the United States has forfeited any of its asymmetric advantages, as well as what needs to be done in order to reclaim those advantages and ultimately defeat asymmetric threats to our national security and national interests. Winning the asymmetric fight is the core issue to be explored.
Speakers: ADM James G. Stavridis, USN–Commander, US European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (invited); LTG Michael T. Flynn, U.S. Army – Director, Defense Intelligence Agency (confirmed); The Honorable Jon Kyl – US Senator, Arizona, 1995-2012 (confirmed).
Location: Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004
This symposium is complimentary and open to participants by invitation only. Registration and further information at www.asymmetricthreat.net. To request an invitation to register, do so here.

Tuesday, 9 April 2013, 11:30 am - MacDill AFB, FL - "My Life in the CIA" with Richard Holm at Meeting/Luncheon by Florida Suncoast Chapter

Richard Holm, a former paramilitary adviser, decorated operations officer, senior manager and station chief for the Central Intelligence Agency, will share fascinating stories of his experiences during the Cold War. Drawing from the material he used in writing his book, The Craft We Chose: My Life in the CIA, he will recount highlights of his 35-year Agency career and explain why it is imperative for Americans to understand and support what the CIA does--a goal that also underlies AFIO's efforts to raise public awareness of the importance of national intelligence. He will also touch on the impact of an intelligence career on one's family and family life.
Location: MacDill AFB Surf's Edge Club, 7315 Bayshore Blvd, MacDill AFB, FL 33621.
RSVP: no later than Wednesday, April 3, for yourself and include the names of any guests.
Email or call the Chapter Secretary at (813) 832-1164 or at mfshapiro@att.net or visit www.suncoastafio.org
Cost: $20. You must present your $20 check payable to "Suncoast Chapter, AFIO" (or cash) at check-in to cover the luncheon. If you make a reservation, don't cancel and get a cancellation confirmation by the response deadline and then don't show up, you will be responsible for the cost of the luncheon.

Saturday 20 April 2013 - Milford, MA - AFIO New England Chapter hosts Mike Stedman on "'A' for Argonaut" at their Spring Meeting

Mike Stedman, South Boston born and bred, is a former political columnist, magazine writer, and intelligence consultant to major corporations. Formerly on the New England board of the Association for Intelligence Officers, he has been both a practitioner and critic of the spy world. Stedman, a former U.S. Army Reserve soldier with the 94th Infantry, has served as chairman of the New England Chapter of the Republican Jewish Coalition and President of his local Rotary Club. He lives outside of Boston with his wife. They have three sons, three daughters-in-law, and seven grandchildren, including identical twin boys.
But really... who is Michael J. Stedman?
Born Michael J. Hurley into a pre-arranged adoption at St. Mary's Infant Asylum in Boston's Dorchester neighborhood, Michael J. Stedman considers himself one of the luckiest people alive.
Location: Courtyard by Marriott in Milford, Mass. Hotel web site is here: http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/bosml-courtyard-boston-milford
Schedule: Registration & gathering, 1000 – 1130, Membership meeting 1130 – 1200; Luncheon at 1200 followed by keynote speaker; Adjournment at 2:30PM.
Questions to afionechapter@gmail.com

For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events

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