AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #26-12 dated 3 July 2012

[Editors' Note: The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.]
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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV -    Books, Letters to the Editors and Coming Events

Books

Letters to the Editors

Coming Educational Events

Current Calendar New and/or Next Two Months ONLY

SPYPEDIA Subscriber?
If so, these are the latest updates. If not, here is just a bit of what you're missing....

SPYPEDIA updates as of 28 June: In international espionage news this week alleged spy Luis Felipe Ruis Castaño pleaded guilty to "violating state secrets" in Nicaragua. Nicaraguan authorities have accused him of being a Columbian intelligence agent operating under journalist cover.
On the cybersecurity front, there's a new interactive map that detalis the location of significant cyber events over the past 30 years.
In SPYPEDIA's Historical Espionage section, there are a series of new cases detailing German espionage efforts against the United States and the Allies during WWII, including:

  • Simon Emil Koedel, a successful sleeper agent who cultivated contacts in the U.S. Senate and gained admittance to several factories producing military equipment
  • A ring of German saboteurs who arrived by U-boat in Long Island with the intent of targeting railroads, bridges, tunnels and factories
  • Elyesa Banza, a valet to the British Ambassador in Turkey and one of Germany's most prolific sources of intelligence
  • Ignatz Griebl and Guenther Rumrich, key members of spyrings operating out of New York in the 1930s
  • Herman Lang, who used his position at a military factory in Manhattan to smuggle weapons blueprints to the Germans
  • William Colepaugh and Erich Gimpel, who landed from a U-boat in Maine in 1944 and are considered the last major espionage attempt from Germany against the U.S.

Lot in to your subscription to SPYPEDIA on a daily basis to stay abreast of the latest espionage, counterterrorism, security and cybersecurity news from around the globe. All new additions can be found by simply navigating to the "New Content" tab, which features the most recent updates in the SPYPEDIA database.

-Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies (CI Centre)

Jonathan Pollard: A Portrayal - an online security film by DIA [runs 15 minutes] to encourage co-workers, colleagues, and others to report suspicious behavior by cleared personnel.

Pollard Steals Secrets

This public domain video was released under the Freedom of Information Act on June 25, 2012 to the IRmep Center for Policy and Law Enforcement. It encourages government employees to report suspicions of espionage. An actress portrays "Susan" who observes Jonathan Pollard's suspicious activities and tall tales, but fears reporting might lead to investigators "climbing all over" the offices. The video reveals how the investigation was in fact discreet and highly effective, and urges people debating whether to report to immediately contact their security officer.


8th Raleigh Spy Conference [RSC]

22-24 August 2012, Raleigh, North Carolina

22-24 August 2012 - Raleigh, NC - 8th Annual Raleigh Spy Conference [RSC]
THEME Dramatic Revelations: J. Edgar Hoover, Castro, Deep Throat, Carlos the Jackal, and Secrets from the CIA.
  The event underscores how recently declassified information re-writes history.
John Fox The FBI is not simply the nation's top cop agency, says RSC founder Bernie Reeves. The Bureau serves as America's domestic security service, responsible for tracking down spies in America and running counter-intelligence operations. And J. Edgar Hoover, the man who shaped and ran the FBI from 1924 to his death in 1972, was the nation's top domestic intelligence officer.
But who was the real Hoover? FBI Historian John Fox will present a session on Hoover's role as chief intelligence officer - and share the latest declassified data on one of the most significant figures in United States history.
Brian Latell PhD Fidel Castro casts a long shadow over modern American history. He led a revolution, unexpectedly embraced communism and invited the Soviets to Cuba who installed offensive nuclear weapons 90 miles from the United States.
Brian Latell, formerly a Cuba hand for the CIA, has plowed through newly declassified documents - and interviewed secret Cuban agents who can now talk for the first time - for his new book Castro's Secrets, revealing that the Cuban intelligence services were highly sophisticated. Cuban operatives duped the CIA and planted nearly 50 double agents in the US intelligence services. Latell also reveals from secret sources that Castro had prior knowledge of the assassination of John F. Kennedy.
Max Holland Max Holland, editor of the insider website Washington Decoded - and a prolific and respected author on key events of the modern era - has dug into newly declassified documents to reveal the true story of the motivation that compelled FBI assistant director Mark Felt to disguise himself as the infamous Deep Throat, the source that allegedly brought down a presidency and elevated two obscure journalists to super-star status. Watergate remains a watershed event in American history - and Mark Felt was the man who made it happen.
David Waltrop David Waltrop, a CIA officer currently serving as a Program Manager in the Agency's Historical Collections Division will share the recently declassified story of one of the most secret operations of the Cold War. Called "Underwater Ice Station Zebra," this little-known undersea mission was hidden in rumor and speculation - until now.
Albert Grajales Albert Grajales, INTERPOL Director of Puerto Rico and Coordinator of Intelligence / Antiterrorism Office of the Attorney General (Secretary of Justice) and the Special Investigations Bureau (SIB) of Puerto Rico will present an insider's assessment of the profile of the modern terrorist, beginning with Carlos the Jackal up to today's dangerous operatives.

The conference is honored again by the presence of representatives of the Historic Collections Division of the CIA, who will provide attractive booklets – some containing DVDs – on key declassified documents and assessments from a variety of Document Release Events.

According to Bernie Reeves, "Conference guests last year were truly impressed by the formerly secret information on critical topics  in the booklets. Topics ranged from  Korea to Air America, from Warsaw Pact planning to the private papers of former CIA director Richard Helms.
And they are free to registered attendees."

"We are fortunate to have a speaker roster of this caliber for the 8th spy conference," says Reeves. "I feel we are addressing and explaining top subjects that have continued to be shrouded in mystery. I am very excited that we continue to live up to our reputation as the best intelligence conference for the general public in the world".

Go to www.raleighspyconference.com for more information and to register.
Or call  Carlie Sorosiak at the Metro Magazine office: 919-831-0999 or email carlie@metromagazine.net.  

The Raleigh Spy Conference was founded in 2003 by Bernie Reeves, editor and publisher of Raleigh Metro Magazine (www.metronc.com). Discounts are offered for intelligence workers, members of the armed forces, students, and seniors.

Bernie Reeves and Raleigh Metro Magazine will be hosting this 8th Raleigh Spy Conference at the North Carolina Museum of History in downtown Raleigh.

Gift Hunting? For an impressive 6-DVD set of the 7th Raleigh Spy Conference on Russian Illegals, view and order here


Early Warning...

Special Notice To AFIO Members
Upcoming CIA Conferences 2012-2014
Put Dates [where known] on your Calendars
Registration information will be supplied as it becomes available.

13 September 2012 - Fairfax, VA - "The DCI Papers" - a CIA Historical Documents 'Release Event' Conference co-hosted with George Mason University's School of Public Policy.
Event tentatively will feature presentations by former DCIs including Michael Hayden (confirmed), James Woolsey (confirmed), Leon Panetta (confirmed), Porter Goss (confirmed), William Webster, and other invited officials. Further details will follow as they are released to AFIO. HOLD THE DATE. AFIO members will receive a special invitation to this event with instructions on how to register.

October 2012 - Washington, DC - "The Warsaw Pact" - a CIA Historical Documents 'Release Event' Conference co-hosted with the National War College at Ft. McNair.
Exact October date to be decided and will be announced here, with additional program details, as these are released to AFIO. HOLD THE DATE.

October/November 2012 - Keyport, WA – An Underwater Ice Station Zebra, CIA Historic Document Release Event at the Naval Undersea Museum Exact date TBD.
The Trieste II Deep Sea Vehicle I (DSV-1), the U.S. Navy's most advanced deep sea submersible, surfaced about 350 miles northeast of the Hawaiian Islands in the pre-dawn hours of 26 April 1972 after having salvaged a mysterious item from 16,400 feet below the Pacific Ocean. Publically known as a nondescript "data package," the full story of this little known Cold War operation has remained hidden behind secrecy, rumor, and speculation. With access to sources from three agencies, An Underwater Ice Station Zebra reveals how the CIA and U.S. Navy undertook a dangerous mission, never before attempted, in the deepest undersea expedition of its time – twenty-eight months before CIA's better known salvage involving the Hughes Glomar Explorer. Presentation by David W. Waltrop, program manager in the CIA Historical Collections Division, who served previously as the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) deputy-chief historian, editor of NRO's quarterly publication, and curator of the Defense Intelligence Agency. [Waltrop will also be giving this presentation at the Raleigh Spy Conference 22-24 August in Raleigh, NC. Further information above and here.]

CIA 'Release Event' Conferences Coming In 2013 are listed on the AFIO website here.


 

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

World's Most Powerful Rocket Launches New US Spy Satellite. A new spy satellite launched into orbit on a secret mission for the U.S. military Friday (June 29), roaring spaceward atop the world's most powerful rocket in use today.

The NROL-15 reconnaissance satellite blasted off from a launch pad at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida at 9:15 a.m. EDT (1315 GMT) to begin its classified mission for the National Reconnaissance Office. It rode a towering Delta 4-Heavy booster equipped with new RS-68A first stage engines - the most powerful liquid hydrogen rocket engines ever built, according to their manufactures.

Built by Pratt and Whitney Rocketdyne, the new RS-68A engines are each capable of generating 702,000 pounds of thrust and are more efficient than a previous design, the rocket engine builders said, adding that the engine generates 36,000 more pounds of thrust than its predecessor. Three of the new rocket engines made their space launch debut in Friday's Delta 4-Heavy flight by rocket provider United Launch Alliance.

"And the RS-68A engines roar to life!" a ULA launch commentator said during liftoff. "The NRO systems continue to ensure vigilance from above." 

The Delta 4-Heavy rocket is currently the largest and most powerful rocket in service. The booster features three core rocket boosters and is topped with a second stage to place payloads into orbit. It is 235 feet tall (72 meters) and can carry payloads of up to 24 tons into low-Earth orbit and 11 tons to geosynchronous orbits. [Read more: Malik/Space.com/29June2012]

Intelligence Experts: Economic, Technology Espionage Still Cut-Throat. As the global economic crisis forces countries to maximize competiveness, U.S. businesses have lost at least $13 billion due to attacks on their intellectual property by foreign countries, a senior FBI official said Thursday.

At a hearing hosted by the House Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, authorities warned that intellectual property thefts conducted by foreign countries remain high-level threats to the U.S. economy and national security.

"This is an issue that touches small and medium-size businesses in congressional districts all across America." said U.S. Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., acting chairman of the subcommittee. "In many ways, a threat posed by the economic espionage is similar to the threat posed by al-Qaida and its affiliate networks."

Long said what makes espionage threats even more complex is that many activities remain hidden and hard to spot. Many foreign intelligence agencies operate through computers in third countries to confuse the origins of the activity.

"Foreign nations and their intelligence services are understanding more than ever that it's cheaper and faster to steal our technology and use their precious budget resources, even some of our allies," added Frank Figliuzzi, assistant director of the FBI's counter-terrorism division.

Figliuzzi said that the most recent FBI statistics indicate U.S. businesses have lost more than $13 billion due to foreign intelligence attacks in 2012.

Stuart Graham, chief economist at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, called that $13 billion loss an "undercount." [Read more: Wang/UPI/28June2012]

Philippines May Ask for U.S. Spy Planes Over South China Sea. The Philippines may ask the United States to deploy spy planes over the South China Sea to help monitor the disputed waters, President Benigno Aquino told Reuters on Monday, a move that could worsen tensions with its giant neighbor China.

The two countries only recently stepped back from a months-long standoff at the Scarborough Shoal, a horseshoe shaped reef near the Philippines in waters they both claim - the latest round of naval brinkmanship over the resource-rich sea.

The United States has stressed it is neutral in the long-running maritime dispute, despite offering to help boost the Philippines' decrepit military forces. China has warned that "external forces" should not get involved.

"We might be requesting overflights on that," Aquino told Reuters in an interview, referring to U.S. P3C Orion spy planes. "We don't have aircraft with those capabilities."

There was no immediate comment from Washington.

Last month, Aquino pulled out a lightly armed coast guard ship and a fisheries boat due to bad weather around the Scarborough Shoal, a group of rock formations about 140 miles west of the main Philippine island of Luzon.

The South China Sea is potentially the biggest military flashpoint in Asia, and tensions have risen since the United States adopted a policy last year to reinforce its influence in the region. [Read more: Mogato&Grudgings/Reuters/2July2012]

Libya Frees Four International Criminal Court Officials Accused of Spying. Libya on Monday freed four officials from the International Court (ICC) whose detention since early June on spying allegations had plunged the interim government into its biggest diplomatic controversy since last year's revolution.

Australian lawyer Melinda Taylor and Lebanese-born interpreter Helene Assaf were held in the town of Zintan and accused of smuggling documents and hidden recording devices to Moammar Gadhafi's captured son Saif al-Islam. Two male ICC staff who were travelling with Taylor and Assaf stayed with them.

The four were freed on Monday after an apology from the ICC, whose president, Sang-Hyun Song, traveled to Zintan for the release after weeks of pressure from the Hague-based court, the U.N. Security Council, NATO and the Australian government.

"I wish to apologize for the difficulties which arose due to this series of events. In carrying out of its duties (the ICC) has no intention to compromise the national security of Libya," Song told a news conference in the western town.

Taylor and Assaf emerged after the news conference from a small room where they had been waiting and were taken to another area where they ate lunch. They looked tired and were dressed in black Islamic robes with their hair partially covered, but were smiling. They did not respond to questions from Reuters.

The four were to leave for Europe on a Monday night flight arranged by Italy, the Italian ambassador in Tripoli said.

The BBC confirmed with a senior member of the Libyan attorney general's office that the ICC staff members would be leaving the country. The source, however, said they would be expected back in Libya for a ruling. 

"We expect them to come back for the hearing but if they don't, a ruling will be made in absentia," the source told the BBC. [Read more: MSNBC/2July2012]

German Spy Chief Quits in Neo-Nazi Files Scandal. The head of Germany's domestic intelligence service resigned on Monday after admitting that his agency had shredded files on a neo-Nazi cell whose killing spree targeting immigrants rocked the country late last year.

Heinz Fromm's resignation is the latest in a series of embarrassing setbacks for Germany's security services over their handling of the "National Socialist Underground" (NSU), which went undetected for more than a decade despite its murder of 10 people, mostly ethnic Turkish immigrants.

An interior ministry spokesman confirmed that Fromm would quit his post, which he has held since 2000, at the end of July.

German lawmakers said there was no suggestion that Fromm had ordered the destruction of the files but that he was taking responsibility for others' failures.

"Fromm was no firebrand but a solid custodian in the defense of the constitution.. He was no James Bond," Wolfgang Bosbach, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling Christian Democrats, told Die Welt newspaper.

He and other lawmakers called for a swift and thorough investigation into the matter.

German media have said an official working in the intelligence agency is suspected of having destroyed files on an operation to recruit far-right informants just one day after the involvement of the NSU in the murders became public. [Read more: Reuters/2July2012]

FBI Breaks Ground for New Explosives Analysis Lab. The FBI broke ground on a new forensics laboratory in Alabama that will analyze terrorist improvised explosive devices from around the world.

On June 25, officials from the FBI, a host of law enforcement agencies and the Department of Defense marked the beginning of construction of a new Terrorist Explosive Devices Analytical Center (TEDAC) Laboratory at Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, AL. The FBI called the new facility a "milestone" for the lab and the combined effort to battle the threat of IEDs.

The new building, it said, will provide a dedicated forensic and technical exploitation workspace for TEDAC. Currently, TEDAC, which was established in 2004, shares laboratory facilities with the FBI Laboratory at Quantico, VA.

According to the FBI, the new Huntsville laboratory will provide processing and examination capabilities in various forensic disciplines, support technical exploitation of IEDs and related devices and facilitate the exchange of personnel among TEDAC partner agencies, strengthening TEDAC's interagency role and mission. [Read more: Rockwell/GSN/26June2012]

Army, Hezbollah Say Israel Detonated 3 Spying Devices in South Lebanon. The Lebanese army says Israel has remotely detonated three spying devices in south Lebanon.

The explosions occurred Monday evening in the village of Zrariye north of the Litani river. The militant Hezbollah group says it discovered the devices before their detonation. It accused Israel of violating Lebanese sovereignty.

The army said in a statement published on its website Tuesday that it was investigating the incident.

There was no immediate comment from Israeli officials. [Read more: AP/3July2012]

Canada's Spy Service Fights Court Ruling it Says Puts Informants in Danger. Canada's spy agency says its network of informants has been "imperiled" by a Federal Court of Appeal decision that struck down its right to always shield the names of its sources.

Public Safety Minister Vic Toews has asked the Supreme Court to overturn the ruling.

"As with police informers, the identity of informers who provide information to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) must be protected or their lives and the lives of their families could be at risk," federal lawyer David Tyndale argues in documents filed in support of the government's leave to appeal.

"Without a guarantee of confidentiality, individuals would be reluctant to come forward and assist CSIS, and sources would dry up."

The appeal court ruling, he says, damages Canada's national security, impairs its ability to deport foreign-born terror suspects, and creates two classes of informants: those who work for the police and those who work for CSIS.

"These are issues of the utmost public importance," Tyndale contends.

In April, the Federal Court of Appeal struck down a blanket legal protection - it's known as a "class privilege" - that had been extended to CSIS informants.

Confidential police sources already enjoy a near-absolute right to have their names kept out of court proceedings. (The lone exception involves a crime in which a defendant's innocence can only be established by unmasking the informant.) [Read more: Duffy/OttawaCitizen/2July2012]

Government Students Receive Hands-on Intelligence Training in Nation's Capital. Liberty University students from the Helms School of Government recently traveled to Washington, D.C., for a unique summer pilot course, Surveillance and Surveillance Detection, the first of its kind offered at any university.

The students spent 12 days (May 28-June 8) in the Washington, D.C., area learning the art of surveillance and surveillance detection from retired and former intelligence community personnel. This field practicum was the dream of Dr. Charles Murphy, government professor, who began Liberty's intelligence studies program alongside Liberty's founder, Dr. Jerry Falwell, Sr., and provost, Dr. Ron Godwin.

"This was an idea I had discussed for a year-and-a-half with some intelligence professionals, all of whom agreed that it not only was feasible, but a needed introductory course for those going into this field," Murphy said.

Murphy, who has had a professional background in the U.S. Marine Corps and the Central Intelligence Agency, as well as being a pastor, said it is the desire of the Helms School of Government "to have the strongest intelligence studies program at the undergraduate level."

"We try to teach every course from the practical or tradecraft' perspective, meaning we try to teach the courses from the how-to-do-this perspective." [Read more: Pico/LibertyUniversity/29June2012]

Cost to Protect U.S. Secrets Doubles to Over $11 Billion. The federal government spent more than $11 billion to protect its secrets last year, double the cost of classification a decade ago - and that is only the part it will reveal. The total does not include the costs incurred by the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency and other spy agencies, whose spending is - you guessed it - classified. 

John P. Fitzpatrick, head of the Information Security Oversight Office, which oversees the government's classification effort and released the annual report, said that adding the excluded agencies would increase the spending total by "less than 20 percent." That suggests that the real total may be about $13 billion, more than the entire annual budget of the Environmental Protection Agency.

The costs include investigations of people applying for security clearances, equipment like safes and special computer gear, training for government personnel, and salaries for officials who review documents for classification and declassification.

Spending on secrecy has increased steadily for more than a decade, driven in part by the expanding counterterrorism programs after the 2001 terrorist attacks, but also by the continuing protection of cold war secrets dating back decades. The total cost for 2001 was $4.7 billion, the oversight office said. [Read more: Shane/NYTimes/2July2012]

DIA's Internal Jonathan Pollard Briefing Video Can Help Organizations Detect Israeli Espionage. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has just released an internal briefing video that is now available online on both Vimeo and Youtube. The IRmep Center for Policy and Law Enforcement obtained release under the Freedom of Information Act.

Jonathan Pollard was sentenced to life in prison in 1987 after he was caught selling large amounts of highly classified documents to Israel. The 14 minute video "Jonathan Pollard: A Portrayal" produced by the Threat Countermeasures Branch of the DIA emphasizes that "eighty percent" of the documents obtained by Pollard were DIA files. Video can be viewed here.

The video encourages American government employees to overcome inhibitions and proactively report suspicious activities. Actors portray "Susan" (a pseudonym for the actual DIA employee who first reported Jonathan Pollard to the Office of Security) and Jonathan Pollard. "Susan" heard Pollard's elaborate stories of lavish European vacations, obsession over the Middle East and tales of elegant restaurant excursions. When she discovered Pollard was also transporting large amounts of classified material to his home she notified security. A librarian also warned of Pollard's prohibited use of a briefcase to transport large quantities of documents.

The video notes it is "natural" for American citizens to keep such observations to themselves. "Susan" expresses that her initial worries about reporting Pollard's possible espionage would lead to criminal investigators "climbing" all over the offices were unfounded. The investigation was "discreet" and "professional" involving a slow look at records.

The video optimistically concludes that - when in doubt - suspected espionage should be promptly reported since it is "only the Pollards of the world" who will get hurt. "Sadly," according to IRmep Director Grant F. Smith after reviewing the video, "most of the highly damaging and similarly well-documented incidents of Israeli espionage never generate this level of investigation or due process, especially when it is the private sector that is the victim of Israeli covert action." [Read more: BusinessWire/27June2012]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

When the KGB Sought Seats in the House of Commons. Was the late Ray Mawby, Tory MP for Totnes, a Czech spy? Trawling for names in former Soviet Bloc intelligence agency archives can be a hazardous undertaking because Czech recruiters, like their KGB and Polish counterparts, often embroidered their reports to justify long lunches with potential sources. Sometimes this was part of the standard cultivation or "developmental" procedure, and occasionally it would result in a successful recruitment which would produce useful, perhaps even classified, information.

This is what happened to Sir Barnett Stross, who had been born in Czechoslovakia. Educated at Leeds Grammar School and the Leeds University Medical School, he was knighted in 1964 and the following year was appointed a junior minister in the Ministry of Health. In 1969 Stross was identified as an StB (Czech intelligence) mole by a defector, Josef Frolmk, but no action was taken by MI5 as the Labour MP had died two years earlier, in May 1967.

Another compromised StB source was Will Owen, the MP for Morpeth, who was acquitted at his trial in 1970 but later admitted to MI5, after having been persuaded to confess by his colleague Leo Abse, to passing sensitive documents acquired through his membership of the Defence Estimates Committee. As revealed by Frolmk and another defector, Frantiˇsek August, the StB was aggressive in exploiting British sympathies with the Czechs, and often acted as a surrogate for the KGB. Potential targets were cleared by the London KGB rezident who occasionally advised that a particular target was being "run by another stable".

Concern about Eastern European intelligence personnel ensnaring MPs dates back to suspicions in 1962 that an Opposition leader had been assassinated to make way for a Soviet agent to take his place, and the best candidate was Harold Wilson, who succeeded Hugh Gaitskell following his mysterious death. Wilson became the subject of a highly secret MI5 investigation codenamed "Wheatsheaf", that remained unresolved. [Read more: West/TheTelegraph/29June2012]

Inside the Mind of the Spy: Agents Struggle in the Shadows. Every few years, major news breaks about spying, with stories of spectacular heroism and shocking betrayal. What goes on in the mind of those who inhabit the clandestine world?

In early May, the world learned of a real example of heroic espionage. Intelligence officials foiled an al Qaeda plot to bring down a plane by having a suicide operative smuggle on board a nonmetallic exploding device concealed beneath his clothing. The terrorist group failed because the operative they chose for the mission was widely reported to have been an agent of British or Saudi intelligence. For those of us in the business, it was rare to see an agent's heroism come to light, though we get to witness their bravery covertly on a routine basis in our daily work. What do people outside the clandestine world not see?

Intelligence officers who handle espionage sources - variously called informants, assets, or agents, to distinguish them from the professionals - and the psychologists they consult with study the motives of agents closely. These motivations are often self-serving. Some want money, or the excitement of a James Bond adventure, or to believe they are playing dramatic, if hidden, roles in historical events. Some are aggrieved and seek revenge. Some agents spy as a kind of sport. They like sneaking around and manipulating others, and feel superior to their oblivious targets drawn into hidden games of secrecy and deception.

Heroic spies are an entirely different type of human being, set apart from ordinary clandestine players not by the tradecraft they use - which is universal - but by their fundamental values. Their motives are not self-serving - the risks of espionage in the contexts they serve in are too high to draw in selfish people. They are morally revolted by their targets' conduct and dismayed at the future they're intent on building or have already actualized.

It is nearly impossible for intelligence professionals to keep agents safe when they are spying against groups such as the current terrorist targets - as was also the case with Soviet Russia or Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Most sane prospective spies realistically assessing the ruthlessness and counterintelligence capabilities of targets like al Qaeda choose to stand down from entering espionage. Heroic agents are the small group of sane people who make the same assessments, but make a different choice.

A case-officer colleague of mine, formerly a member of an elite military combat unit, was handling a source who was captured and then killed in the village square in front of friends and relatives by terrorists using the drawn-out methods worthy of medieval torturers. As we discussed the nature of his lost agent, my colleague remarked that the world had lost that day an unrecognized prince, a noble and civilized man whose war flag - if the work of spies permitted such emblems of service - should have been flown high at his funeral and included symbols of both an eagle and a dove. Another case officer in the war zones called me late one night at headquarters to ask if there was any way he could demonstrate human sympathy or emotional empathy and concern to his agent, without "unmanning" him, in the scant 15 minutes of furtive conversation they could manage for their clandestine meetings. They worked in an operational context in which all meetings between intelligence officers and sources were high-threat and therefore necessarily infrequent and swift. Despite these working conditions and ever-mounting dangers the agent continued his espionage unabated, such was his dedication to countering the extremists taking over his religion and his homeland and murdering people at will, such as his son. [Read more: Wilder/DailyBeast/1July2012]


Section III - COMMENTARY

Is Russia Preparing for the Cyber Cold War? In the last month, the security industry has being getting to grips with the highly-complex cyber espionage tool known as Flame. While the computer virus is not a danger to you or me, it does pose a serious threat to governments and highlights that leaders around the world are now embarking on high-level, cyber-attacks against other nation states.

Therefore, it will be of great interest to a number of governments that Russia has announced the establishment of the Russian Foundation for Advanced Research Projects in the Defense Industry which will "take on all high-risk and fundamental research projects" according to deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin.

As well as telling the Russian government the best way to ensure the country's superiority in defence technology, it will also highlight areas where the country may be vulnerable - with cyber espionage likely to be top of its list.

While Vladimir Putin or any of his government colleagues have not openly said that cyber espionage tools or cyber weapons will be developed at the centre, it would seem like a huge oversight if Russia was not developing weapons similar to Stuxnet and Flame.

With the cost of Stuxnet rumoured to be about $10 million (#6.4m), the same as the cost of dropping a single bomb on Iraq, the economics of cyber-attacks make a lot of sense.

So a Cyber Cold War could be on the cards, but will the Russians be once again staring down the Americans on the other side of the divide? [Read more: Gilbert/InternationalBusinessTimes/26June2012]

CIA Experts Accurately Predicted Future Events in 2000 Report. Sifting through hundreds upon hundreds of declassified documents that have been released via the CIA 25 year review can really make for some interesting reading.

One of my favorite document types that I like to read through are the periodic "trend" reports, where CIA experts attempt to predict what the world may look like over the coming decade or so.

I like them, because they help to gauge whether or not those experts were truly accurate in their predictions, or whether they were just blowing smoke.

I came across just such a report during my research this week. It was a report released in December of 2000 titled "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts".

According to the authors, the paper came from information and viewpoints expressed at numerous conferences held at places likek Georgetown University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, and of course the CIA itself.

So what's so special about this report?

The truth is, after reading the report from the front page to the last, I realized that the authors of this report got at least five predictions true about what the world would most likely look like in 2015.

It's important to keep in mind that these predictions all took place way back in 2000 - over a decade ago.

Now that we're only a few years away from 2015, it seems like a good time to step back and gauge just how accurate those experts were. [Read more: Dube/TopSecretWriters/July2012]


Section IV - Books, Letters to the Editors and Coming Events


Books

Top CIA Spy Accused of Being a Mafia Hitman. Enrique "Ricky" Prado's resume reads like the ultimate CIA officer: veteran of the Central American wars, running the CIA's operations in Korea, a top spy in America's espionage programs against China, and deputy to counter-terrorist chief Cofer Black - and then a stint at Blackwater. But he's also alleged to have started out a career as a hitman for a notorious Miami mobster, and kept working for the mob even after joining the CIA. Finally, he went on to serve as the head of the CIA's secret assassination squad against Al-Qaida.

That's according to journalist Evan Wright's blockbuster story How to Get Away With Murder in America, distributed by Byliner. In it, Wright - who authored Generation Kill, the seminal story of the Iraq invasion - compiles lengthy, years-long investigations by state and federal police into a sector of Miami's criminal underworld that ended nowhere, were sidelined by higher-ups, or cut short by light sentences. It tracks the history of Prado's alleged Miami patron and notorious cocaine trafficker, Alberto San Pedro, and suspicions that Prado moved a secret death squad from the CIA to Blackwater.

"In protecting Prado, the CIA arguably allowed a new type of mole - an agent not of a foreign government but of American criminal interests - to penetrate command," Wright writes.

In this sense, there are two stories that blur into each other: Prado the CIA officer, and Prado the alleged killer. The latter begins when Prado met his alleged future mob patron, Alberto San Pedro, as a high school student in Miami after their families had fled Cuba following the revolution. Prado would later join the Air Force, though he never saw service in Vietnam, and returned to Miami to work as a firefighter. But he kept moonlighting as a hitman for San Pedro, who had emerged into one of Miami's most formidable cocaine traffickers, according to Wright. [Read more: Beckhusen/Wired/27June2012]

New Book: Biden Warned Afghan Buildup Was Hollow; Obama Sidelined CIA When Planning Drawdown. As President Barack Obama considered adding as many as 40,000 U.S. forces to a backsliding war in Afghanistan in 2009, Vice President Joe Biden warned him that the military rationale for doing so was flawed, a new book about Obama's expansion of the conflict says.

The book, "Little America: The War Within the War for Afghanistan," also says that in planning the drawdown of troops two years later, the White House intentionally sidelined the CIA. Obama purposely did not read a grim CIA assessment of Afghanistan that found little measurable benefit from the 30,000 "surge" forces Obama eventually approved, the book quotes a U.S. official as saying.

A copy of the book by Washington Post correspondent Rajiv Chandrasekaran was obtained by The Associated Press. It will be released Tuesday.

A previously undisclosed Biden memo to Obama in November 2009 reflects his view that military commanders were asking Obama to take a leap by adding tens of thousands of forces whose role was poorly defined.

Although Biden's doubts have become well known, the new book details how Biden used a months-long White House review of the war to question the basic premise that the same "counterinsurgency" strategy that had apparently worked in Iraq could be applied to Afghanistan.

"I do not see how anyone who took part in our discussions could emerge without profound questions about the viability of counterinsurgency," Biden wrote to Obama. To work, the counterinsurgency or "COIN" doctrine requires military gains to be paired with advances in government services, a "credible" Afghan government and Afghan security services that can take over, Biden's memo said. [Read more: AP/25June2012]

Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power. Every White House keeps secrets, especially when it comes to national security. It's the job of the press to learn those secrets and reveal them, unless - and it's a big unless - the press is convinced that doing so will harm the country. In his new book, Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power, David E. Sanger, the chief Washington correspondent for The New York Times, navigates this tricky terrain in an effort to tell the public as much as he possibly can without jeopardizing active U.S. operations or the lives of those people involved in them.

Confront and Conceal, parts of which were excerpted in the Times, is rich in revelations: a detailed account of "Olympic Games," a US-Israeli initiative to use a cyber-weapon to disrupt and delay Iran's nuclear program; a look at American attempts to locate Osama bin Laden through a "highly classified" technique involving "traceable" digital cameras; the nugget that the National Security Agency "routinely taps" the cell phones of Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence. Sanger's reporting is based, in part, on conversations with Obama administration policymakers and intelligence officials.

Sanger, who has reported on White Houses going back to the Clinton administration, has been applauded for his tenacity - and taken to task for spilling too many beans. Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Peggy Noonan decried a climate of indiscretion in which she depicted Sanger as too willing a participant. "Why is this happening? In part because at our highest level in politics, government and journalism, Americans continue to act as if we are talking only to ourselves," Noonan wrote. "There is something childish in it: Knowing secrets is cool, and telling them is cooler." Meanwhile, the Justice Department, under fire from Capitol Hill, has appointed two prosecutors to trace the leaks that inform the Sanger book. Sanger himself conceivably could be called to testify.

From his vacation home in the Vermont mountains, Sanger spoke with me over the phone about the uproar over his book, his reporting methods, and the broader themes that illuminate Confront and Conceal, which stands out as the most comprehensive and penetrating account available anywhere of Obama's national-security policies. [Read more: Starobin/ColumbiaJournalismReview/2July2012]


Letters to the Editors

WWII Spy School Taught Ninjutsu Skills

Colleagues,

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #25-12 dated 26 June 2012 has an interesting section, WWII Spy School Taught Ninjutsu Skills. I did not see any reference in it to the 2002 book by Stephen C. Mercado titled, The Shadow Warriors of Nakano: A History of the Imperial Japanese Army's Elite Intelligence School. Some AFIO members might be interested in this work, perhaps as a foundation piece to Taketoshi Yamamoto's recently discovered materials.

I trust all is well, all the best, Bill
Dr. William D. Steeves Jr.
wdsteeves@charter.net


Coming Educational Events

EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

MANY Spy Museum Events in July, August, and beyond, with full details are listed on the AFIO Website at www.afio.com. The titles for some of these are in detail below and online.

Tuesday, 10 July 2012, noon – Washington, DC - "Spies Against Armageddon: History of Israel's Intelligence Community" author presentation at International Spy Museum

The history of Israel's intelligence community—led by the feared and famous Mossad—includes stunning successes and embarrassing failures with important implications for war and peace today. CBS journalist Dan Raviv and Israeli journalist Yossi Melman trace this history from the country's independence in 1948 right up to the crises of today as a follow-up to their 1990 best seller, Every Spy a Prince: The Complete History of Israel's Intelligence Community. Raviv will map the major changes in Israeli intelligence priorities away from Palestine and toward Iran. He will also describe how Israel has become the most innovative country in the world in the use of espionage as an alternative to war, since Meir Dagan, director of the Mossad from 2002 to 2011, put "the dagger back between the teeth" of that spy agency.
Join the authors for an informal chat and book signing. Free! No registration required. More info and directions at www.spymuseum.org

Thursday, July 12, noon – Washington, DC - "AGENT GARBO: How a Brilliant & Eccentric Double Agent Tricked the Nazis & Saved D-Day" at the International Spy Museum

Juan Pujol was the Walter Mitty of World War II, a nobody who in his 20s failed at one doomed venture after another while dreaming of doing something interesting with his life -- saving Western civilization, if possible. Journalist Stephan Talty, whose work has appeared widely, including in the New York Times Magazine and GQ, has told the remarkable story of how against all the odds, Pujol did just that by becoming agent GARBO, the most important double agent of World War II. Talty has said that "Pujol enjoyed fooling the Nazis enormously and I think he'd want us to share in that gleeful pleasure. But most of all, he wanted to be remembered as a humanist, plain and simple." Join us to hear this amazing story of espionage, war, and humanity. Free! No registration required. Directions at www.spymuseum.org

17-18 July 2012, 8:30-4:30 - Reston, VA - The CiCentre hosts Course 207: Introduction to the People's Republic of China (PRC) Intelligence and Counterintelligence Methodologies.

This course provides an introductory review of PRC intelligence and counterintelligence practices.
It focuses on the significant differences as well as the similarities between Chinese intelligence collection and counterintelligence practices and Western and European models.
The course looks at Chinese cultural considerations and PRC historical events which are essential to understanding collection practices and counterintelligence operations employed by the Chinese.
In addition to coverage of traditional espionage, the seminar also discusses the Chinese economic espionage threat.
Companies and government agencies concerned with the theft of dual-use, proprietary information and technology will find this seminar particularly useful in understanding that growing threat.
Information & registration here. Fee is $1,000. Course will be held in Reston, Virginia. For more information or to register contact: Adam Hahn

Thursday, 19 July 2012, 11:30 - Colorado Springs, CO - The Rocky Mountain Chapter presents Joseph Ruffini on "Islamist Terror Funding and Recruiting in the US and Need for Community Policing."

Joseph A. Ruffini, LTC USA (Ret), Certified Master Anti-Terrorism Specialist (CMAS) of JPR & Associates, LLC, will be the speaker. At this presentation he discusses the ways in which terror organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah and al Qaeda raise money and recruit members and supporters from within the United States. It identifies prominent persons representing Muslim organizations in the U.S. who have been indicted, convicted, or fled the country on terror charges. It examines the ways in which law abiding, Muslim Americans are often deceived and betrayed by those who lead them. The modern day use of the Internet, terrorist Web and social media sites to influence and recruit Muslim American youth into terrorist organizations is explained. The presentation concludes with a strong case for law enforcement agencies building a trusting relationship with their Muslim American communities through community policing and the recruiting of Muslim peace officers who possess the same ethnicity as the communities they serve.
Event will be held at The Inn at Palmer Divide, 443 S. Highway 105 Palmer Lake, CO, Exit 161 westbound off I-25, West on Highway 105. Please RSVP to Tom VanWormer at robsmom@pcisys.net

24-25 July 2012, 8:30 - 4:30 - Reston, VA - The CiCentre hosts Course 203: Vulnerabilities of Global Travel: Personnel & Information Protection

In today's international market place and global national security environment, global travel is an essential and absolute requirement for the corporate, military or government employee/contractor.
US personnel who travel internationally for personal or professional reasons, face enhanced threat realities from foreign intelligence collectors, unscrupulous business competitors and terrorists driven by many ideologies and objectives.
This essential seminar provides practical information and usable tactics to assist the global traveler.
This seminar covers pre-travel preparation planning, strategies to decrease individual profiles while traveling, plus arrival and personal conduct advice while at the travel destination(s) to enhance their personal safety.
Included in this seminar are strategies to recognize recruitment and elicitation operations, technical collection operations to assess the traveler and/or compromise their information, and/or criminal/terrorist pre-attack profile recognition.
Information & registration here. Fee is $1,000. Course will be held in Reston, Virginia. For more information or to register contact: Adam Hahn

Wednesday, 25 July 2012, 6:30 – 8:30 pm – "Lie Detection 101 Workshop" at the International Spy Museum

How to Use Your Eyes as Lie Detectors!
Every top interrogator learns how to catch a liar; now it's your turn. Join Gregory Hartley and Maryann Karinch as they debut the tools used to detect deception featured in their new edition of How to Spot a Liar. Hartley earned honors with the US Army as an interrogator and interrogation instructor and both teach law enforcement, business, and consumer audiences how to get the truth. Meet and assess new people at the Spy School Workshop, learn to spot the messages and emotions that people are really sending whether they know it or not, and enjoy your inner truth teller. You'll find out how to put your new understanding of prevarication to good use, whether you're trying to navigate a tough situation or simply want to win at poker.
Tickets: $20. Register at www.spymuseum.org

Saturday, 28 July 2012, 9 - 11 am - Laguna Niguel, CA - The NEW AFIO Orange County, CA Chapter hosts former NCIX Director Michelle Van Cleave, as part of this first Organizational meeting.

Meeting will be in the Sea Country Senior and Community Center, 24602 Aliso Creek Rd, Laguna Niguel, CA 92677 [this is a change from the location announced earlier) The speaker will be Michelle Van Cleave, former Director of the National Counterintelligence Executive [head of all U.S. counterintelligence efforts], who currently serves as an AFIO National board member. For further information contact Larry Holdridge at Cell: 954-298-5442 or by email at larryholdridge@gmail.com

Wednesday, 1 August 2012, noon – Washington, DC - "Twilight War: The Secret History of America's Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran" - author presentation at International Spy Museum

The United States and Iran have been at daggers drawn for more than thirty years. While this rivalry has never erupted into open war, it has been an enduring "twilight war" in which spies and terrorists often play the lead role. US Government historian David Crist will discuss his groundbreaking book which pulls back the curtain on many of the deepest secrets of this lethal struggle. Hear about the massive spy network that the CIA developed in Iran with German help in the 1980s, how these spies communicated with their American handlers using invisible ink, and how their discovery led to the deaths of more than two dozen people. Hear his remarkable new findings about the Iran-Contra affair that almost scuttled the Reagan administration, and learn the story behind the Iranian nuclear scientist who defected to the United States—and then redefected back to Iran in 2010.
Free! No registration required. More info and directions at www.spymuseum.org

4 August 2012, 11:30 am - Melbourne, FL - AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter hosts CIA's James Fletcher on "Three HUMINT Cases from Life."

Speaker will be James B. Fletcher, former CIA operations officer and executive whose topic will be Three HUMINT Cases From Life and How Their Intelligence Was Used.
Location: Indian River Colony Club, Melbourne, FL.
To attend or for more information contact: Donna Czarnecki, donnacz12@aol.com

22-24 August 2012 - Raleigh, NC - "Dramatic Revelations - J. Edgar Hoover, Castro, Deep Throat, Carlos the Jackal, and Secret from CIA" the theme of the 8th Annual Raleigh Spy Conference

Dramatic Revelations: J. Edgar Hoover, Castro, Deep Throat, Carlos the Jackal, and Secrets from the CIA. The event underscores how recently declassified information re-writes history.
The FBI is not simply the nation's top cop agency, says RSC founder Bernie Reeves. The Bureau serves as America's domestic security service, responsible for tracking down spies in America and running counter-intelligence operations. And J. Edgar Hoover, the man who shaped and ran the FBI from 1924 to his death in 1972, was the nation's top domestic intelligence officer.
But who was the real Hoover?  FBI Historian John Fox will present a session on Hoover's role as chief intelligence officer – and share the latest declassified data on one of the most significant figures in US history.

Fidel Castro casts a long shadow over modern American history. He led a revolution, unexpectedly embraced communism and invited the Soviets to Cuba who installed offensive nuclear weapons 90 miles from the United States.
Brian Latell, formerly a Cuba hand for the CIA, has plowed through newly declassified documents - and interviewed secret Cuban agents who can now talk for the first time –  for his new book Castro's Secrets, revealing that the Cuban intelligence services were highly sophisticated. Cuban operatives duped the CIA and planted nearly 50 double agents in the US intelligence services. Latell also reveals from  secret sources that Castro had prior knowledge of the assassination of John F. Kennedy.

Max Holland, editor of the insider website Washington Decoded - and a prolific and respected author on key events of the modern era – has dug into newly declassified documents to reveal the true story of the motivation that compelled FBI assistant director Mark Felt to disguise himself as the infamous Deep Throat, the source that allegedly brought down a presidency and elevated two obscure journalists to super-star status. Watergate remains a watershed event in American history –and Mark Felt was the man who made it happen.

David Waltrop, an active CIA officer currently serving as a Program Manager for the Agency's Historical Collections Division (who formerly worked in the National Reconnaissance Office and as curator for the Defense Intelligence Agency) will reveal one of the most secret CIA operations of the Cold War, the Trieste 11 Deep Sea Vehicle. Now called An Underwater Ice Station Zebra, the true mission of the Trieste 11 expedition was hidden in rumor and speculation – until now.

Albert Garajales, INTERPOL Director of Public Relations and assistant coordinator of anti-Terrorism for Puerto Rico, will present an insider's assessment of the profile of the modern terrorist, beginning with Carlos the Jackal up to today's dangerous operatives.

Go to www.raleighspyconference.com for more information and to register. Or call  Carlie Sorosiak at the Metro Magazine office: 919-831-0999 or email carlie@metromagazine.net.   
The Raleigh Spy Conference was founded in 2003 by Bernie Reeves, editor and publisher of Raleigh Metro Magazine (www.metronc.com). Discounts are offered for intelligence workers, members of the armed forces, students, and seniors.
Bernie Reeves and Raleigh Metro Magazine will be hosting this 8th Raleigh Spy Conference at the NC Museum of History in downtown Raleigh.
And if you missed the 7th Raleigh Spy Conference, a beautifully prepared set of DVDs of event are available here.

12 September 2012 - Albuquerque, NM - AFIO NM Chapter Hosts Fall Meeting. Details to follow.

13 September 2012 - Fairfax, VA - "The DCI Papers" - a CIA Historical Documents 'Release Event' Conference co-hosted with George Mason University's School of Public Policy.

Event tentatively will feature presentations by former DCIs including Michael Hayden (confirmed), James Woolsey (confirmed), Leon Panetta (confirmed), Porter Goss (confirmed), William Webster, and other invited officials. Further details will follow as they are released to AFIO. HOLD THE DATE. AFIO members will receive a special invitation to this event with instructions on how to register.

14-15 September 2012 - Syracuse, NY - 3rd Annual Seminar on Teaching Law and National Security: Educating the Next Generation of Decisionmakers: The Intersection of National Security Law and International Affairs
In modern foreign affairs and national and international security governance, the policy and subject area experts and lawyers attend the same meetings, hash out common policy positions, and worry about how to implement their prescriptions. Yet the international affairs experts and national security lawyers work in parallel, not together. They speak different professional languages, and their analytic reference points and methods are normally divergent, if not inharmonious. At times, a good deal of energy in governance is spent finding common ground between the lawyers and the policy experts. The objective of the Conference is to explore ways to enrich the education in our related but disparate disciplines by exposing one side and its methods and ways of approaching problems to the other.
$150 registration fee. For more information or to register: http://insct.org/teaching-national-security-law-seminar/

8-11 October 2012 - Orlando, FL - GEOINT 2012 Symposium

Hosted by the US Geospatial Intelligence Foundation (USGIF). The USGIF expects another agenda with insightful keynote speakers, interesting panels and breakout sessions, cutting-edge exhibitions from 250 organizations, and invaluable networking opportunities.
Event is being held at the Gaylord Palms Hotel & Convention Center
For more information visit http://geoint2012.com/

7 December 2012 - Jersey City, NJ - New Jersey City University hosts 71st Anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor! - 2nd Northeast Regional Security Education Symposium on "Tradecraft Primer Skills Acquisition"

In concert with launching the inaugural LC #1 degree program described above, NJCU will be hosting a regional Security Symposium on September 14, 2012. Please save the date. This is NJCU's second regional symposium since being designated a National Center of Academic Excellence in 2009 by the ODNI. CEUs and limited vendor tables will be available. The one-day conference costs are being finalized (ca. $150-225). Corporate sponsorships are being pursued as well. Invited Speakers: National Security Agency – Signal Intelligence; Federal Bureau of Investigation; NJ Department of Homeland Security; ASIS – International (Headquarters – not Regional); Office of the Director for National Intelligence; Local Participants of The Bus mission [See http://www.space.com/12996-secret-spy-satellites-declassified-nro.html ] For forthcoming details and a registration form, contact (201) 200-2275.


For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events


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