SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

MI5 CHIEF ASSURED PARLIAMENT THERE WAS NO IMMINENT TERRORIST THREAT DAY BEFORE LONDON UNDERGROUND ATTACKS On the morning of July 6th, the day before the synchronized suicide attacks on the London subway that killed 52 people, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Chief of MI5, assured senior members of parliament that there was no imminent threat of terrorist attacks on London or elsewhere in the country. She said the security situation was under control. Dame Eliza recently announced her retirement, although those close to the MI5 Chief say her retirement has nothing to do with the publicizing of details surrounding the 7/7 bombing investigation. Besides the assurance MI5 gave parliament, sources say MI5 had two of the bombers under surveillance, but did not move to arrest them. According to sources, MI5 was following the bombing plot's leader, Mohammed Siddique Khan, for over a year- listening to his phone calls and photographing him- yet were unable to identify him. The realization that MI5 was so surprised by the events of 7/7 has led to some of the bombing victims' families to call for public or independent investigations of the security service to determine where the fault lies. Some members of Parliament that were brief on 6 July said that Dame Eliza appeared "detached from the security operations that must have been taking place at the time."  The Joint Terrorism Analysis Center, headquartered at MI5, had reduced the terrorist threat level from level 2, or "severe-general" to level 3, or "substantial", six weeks before the July 7 bombings. The threat level was subsequently raised back to 2, where it remains today. Whitehall is reviewing candidates to replace Dame Eliza at the helm of MI5. The current favorite is Jonathan Evans, her deputy, who has led MI5's al-Qaeda-related counterterrorist operations. [CL/Guardian 9Jan07/Cobain, Hencke, and Norton-Taylor]

ISRAEL PLANS PREEMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST IRAN WITH TACTICAL NUKES BASED ON MOSSAD ASSESSMENT The Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is assessing that Iran has advanced its uranium enrichment program sufficiently to produce a nuclear weapon within two years. With that prediction, two Israeli Air Force squadrons have begun practicing an attack on Iran's nuclear production facilities. Since Iran has been burying its facilities under 70 feet of reinforced concrete and rock, Israel believes that conventional weapons are no longer capable of destroying the facilities. Therefore, according to Israeli military sources, at least some of the attack plans include the use of low-yield nuclear-tipped "bunker busters." Under the nuclear option. Israeli pilots would open shafts to the underground facilities with conventional bombs and then drop the nuclear bunker busters down the shafts to create an subsurface detonation, reducing the risk of nuclear fallout. If carried out, the attack would be the first use of nuclear weapons since the U.S. dropped two atomic bombs on Japan at the end of World War II. The Israeli weapons would have an estimated yield 1/15 that of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs. The prime target of such an attack would be the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. The nuclear option would only be considered if the U.S. declined to intervene and if a conventional attack was completely ruled ineffective. Analysts believe that Israel is forecasting its plans in order to cajole the U.S. into action, pressure Tehran to halt its nuclear production, and/or soften world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack. Some fear that Iran could respond to an Israeli attack by cutting oil exports to the West and terrorist attacks on Jewish targets around the world. Israel has warned that it would never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, especially in light of Iranian President Ahmadinejad's public statements that Israel should be wiped from the face of the map. In addition to Natanz, Israel would most likely strike the uranium conversion facility at Isfahan, and the heavy water reactor at Arak. Israel believes that the destruction of these three facilities would indefinitely delay Iran's ability to produce nuclear weapons. [LawrenceS/SundayTimes 7Jan07/Mahnaimi and Baxter]

U.S. AIR FORCE STRIKES AL-QAEDA TARGETS IN SOMALIA On 7 January, AC-130 gun ships operated by the U.S. Special Operations Command, struck targets in southern Somalia where the terrorists responsible for the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya where believed to be hiding. The U.S. has long suspected that the bombers were in Somalia, but with the ejection of Islamic militants from Mogadishu recently, the targets were finally out in the open where they could be struck. The U.S. reports that there were several casualties, but it is unknown if the al-Qaeda bombing suspects were among them. This marks the first officially acknowledged military action in Somalia since U.S. forces withdrew in 1993 in the wake of the "Blackhawk Down" incident. The CIA purportedly began making payments to Somali warlords early last year to help hunt down suspected al-Qaeda members. When the Islamic militant group, the Islamic Courts seized power in Mogadishu, Washington made repeated demands for them to turn over the bombing suspects. Then in December, an offensive by the Ethiopian military drove the Islamists from the capital towards the southern port of Kismayo, and Ethiopian intelligence reported that members of al-Qaeda were amongst them. [CL/NYT 8Jan07/Cloud]

PRESIDENT BUSH GIVES CIA OKAY TO OPPOSE HEZBOLLAH In order to prop up the moderate government in Lebanon, and fight the spread of Iranian influence there, President Bush has authorized the CIA to begin providing financial and logistical support to strengthen Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's hold on power. Details of the plan, which was supposed to be super secret and known only to a select circle of insiders, was obtained by the Daily Telegraph. The plan was signed by the President before Christmas and briefedto members of Congress. The plan is characterized as a "Presidential non-lethal finding." The finding authorizes the CIA to fund anti-Hezbollah groups and activist supporters of the Siniora government. However, the secrecy of the operation allows the U.S. government to deny involvement. The move is part of a strategy backed by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and other moderate Arab states to stem the tide of Iranian influence in the region. The President's National Security Council (NSC) drafted the finding which reflects the President's growing alarm at the power Tehran is emanating throughout the Middle East. Especially concerning to the U.S. was Iran's ability to infiltrate the Iraqi government and begin training Shia death squads in Iraq under the noses of U.S. forces. Among those involved in drafting the plan was Prince Bandar bin-Sultan, the former Saudi Arabian ambassador to Washington. Israel was also supportive of the measure. Bandar, who is now King Abdullah's national security adviser, made several trips to Washington to discuss the plan with Elliot Abrahms, the NSC's senior Middle East official. The Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Turki al-Faisal, resigned last month, purportedly because he was not informed of the plan or Bandar's involvement and visits. Supposedly part of the negotiations to seal Saudi and other Sunni support was a promise by the U.S. and Israel to restart peace plans with the Palestinians. [PJK/Telegraph 10Jan07/Harnden]

ARCHBISHOP OF WARSAW RESIGNS AS HE ADMITS TO SPYING FOR THE SECRET POLICE Amid tears and cries of support, Stanislaw Wielgus, the newly appointed Archbishop of Warsaw, resigned his post just before he was to perform his inaugural mass at the Warsaw Cathedral, admitting that he had acted as an informant for the communist-era secret police. Tension built outside where the Archbishop's supporters clashed with activists calling for Wielgus to step down. According to those detractors, Wielgus began informing for the secret police in 1967 when he was a student at Lublin University. His handlers referred to him as Agent Grey or Adam Wisocki, and directed him to report on the "anti-social" activities of other priests. Once he was asked to infiltrate the offices of Radio Free Europe, but he turned down that assignment. The Vatican, through its spokesman Father Fredrico Lombardi, said, "The behavior of Monsignor Wielgus in the former years of the communist regime in Poland has severely compromised his authority. The relinquishment of his position in Warsaw and the Pope's ready acceptance of his resignation appeared to be an adequate solution, despite his humble and moving request for a pardon." The Vatican has asked Cardinal Josef Glemp, a renowned anti-communist activist and the former Archbishop of Warsaw, to resume his duties until a replacement is named. Glemp, speaking in defense of Wielgus, said the evidence against him was "scraps of papers and documents" and added that "this is not the kind of judgment we need". It is estimated that as much as 15% of the Polish clergy collaborated with the former communist regime. [CL/Telegraph 9Jan07/Day and Moore]

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

GERMAN POLITICIAN FORGIVES HUSBAND WHO SNITCHED ON HER TO THE STASI German politician and former East German dissident Vera Lengsfeld was jailed and exiled based on information provided by her husband to the East German secret police or Stasi. Every conversation and political comment that Lengfeld made at the dinner table was converted into an intelligence report and delivered to the communist government. Lengsfeld's husband and father of her two children, Knud Wollenberger, is suffering from a radical and advanced form of Parkinson's disease. In a letter to his former wife, Wollenberger, who was codenamed "Donald" by the Stasi, claimed that he was attempting to shield her and that his betrayal of her to the Stasi was actually an act of love. He also asked for forgiveness, which Lengsfeld, 54, has given. In 1988, Wollenberger tried to warn Lengsfeld not to attend a peace rally. It is now obvious that Wollenberger knew that the Stasi had planned to arrest Lengsfeld at the rally. She spent a humiliating month in jail and then was expelled from the country. Lengsfeld described her detention at the Hohensch�nhausen prison in Berlin, one of the most notorious Stasi detention facilities and now a museum. Lengsfeld was held in a small cell, and had access to an exercise yard that measured seven paces long and five paces wide. She said that prisoners were subjected to radiation and that many were psychologically destroyed. She said that when they were fingerprinted they were made to sit on pieces of cloth that were later stored in air tight jars to collect their smell. "Can you tell me why?� Lengsfeld pleaded. The jars were discovered years later after the fall of the communist government. Lengsfeld learned of her husband's betrayal after the fall of the Berlin Wall and divorced him. She lived for a while in Cambridge, but returned to Germany and entered politics. She is now a deputy in the conservative Christian Democrat party. Her story has drawn the attention of Hollywood, where Meryl Streep was being considered for the lead role. [CL/Times 6Jan07/Boyes]

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

CHECK YOUR CHANGE AT THE DOOR- GOVERNMENT WARNS OF TRANSMITTERS IN CANADIAN COINS The U.S. Government issued a warning to its contractors of a new espionage threat- Canadian coins that contain tiny transmitters. The coins were discovered on three different occasions between October 2005 and January 2006 on U.S. contractors with high-level security clearances after they had traveled in Canada. Experts believe the small radio transmitters could be used to track the movements of individuals possessing them. Who planted the devices and their motivation is unknown. The Pentagon left out other details from the warning, such as how the transmitters were discovered, how they function, and in which Canadian currency denominations they were found. The warning was issued by the Defense Security Service (DSS), who said the report was sanitized of classified information, but assures the public that the incidents did occur and that the threat is real. Although the culprit behind the transmitters is unknown, top suspects include Russia, China, and France, all of whom have active intelligence collection missions inside Canada with sufficient technical expertise. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service said it was unaware of the coin transmitters. "This issue has just come to our attention," CSIS spokeswoman Barbara Campion said. "At this point, we don't know of any basis for these claims." She said Canada's intelligence service works closely with its U.S. counterparts and will seek more information if necessary. Any suspicion that Canada might be spying on the U.S. was rejected by experts who say the U.S. and Canadian intelligence communities are "extraordinarily close" and routinely share highly sensitive secrets. Although technically a coin is a great, inconspicuous hiding place for a transmitter, it would seem to make little sense as the target could easily break surveillance by spending it or depositing it in a piggy bank. [CBSNews 11Jan07/AP]

MI5 TO BEGIN EMAILING TERROR ALERTS Concerned citizens can register on the MI5 website to receive email terror alters. The alerts will contain the subject "MI5 news update" and will be issued whenever the MI5 homepage changes. The emails would warn subscribers of changes to the terror threat level assessment, whether an increase or a decrease. However, experts say that given the number of terror suspects and plots under surveillance, the level is not expected to drop for years. The current level is Severe, the second highest. The threat level has remained at Severe since the bombings of the London subway system in July 2005. It rose briefly to the highest level of critical when the plot to bomb airliners over the Atlantic was disrupted last August. Originally, some ministers were against publicizing the terror threat levels, because they feared they would cause panic without giving the public any information or instructions that might thwart an attack. However, transparency won out over caution and the threat levels have been available on the public website since August. In addition to threat level assessments, the website also contains information about how people can protect themselves. [CL/Telegraph 9Jan07/Johnston]

U.S. SENATE BILL WOULD REQUIRE GOVERNMENT TO DISCLOSE ANY USE OF DATA MINING Senators Russ Feingold (D-WI) and John Sununu (R-NH) introduced a bill that would require the government to report to Congress the development and/or use of any technologies that "discover predictive or anomalous patterns indicating criminal or terrorist activity." Similar bills were introduced over the past two years, but the Republican-led Congress chose not to act on them. Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), the new Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee has promised more oversight of government information collection. Leahy contends that not only does the public not have any assurance that their privacy concerns will be protected, but they also have no evidence that the massive data banks protect the country. According to Leahy, 52 agencies of the U.S. government use some form of data mining technology which comprise 119 data mining programs currently active. These numbers do not include the National Security Agency, which has not disclosed its programs claiming they are too sensitive. One of Leahy's chief concerns is that mistakes by data mining software can result in innocent people winding up on watch lists. For example, the terrorist watch list contains over 300,000 names, including those of infants and members of Congress. [WashPost 11Jan07/Nakashima and Klein]

SECTION IV - BOOKS, SOURCES AND ISSUES