SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

NEGROPONTE PREDICTS CASTRO'S DEATH IN MONTHS, NOT YEARS Talking before a group of Washington Post reporters and editors on Thursday (14 Dec), Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte said that Cuban leader Fidel Castro was very ill and close to death. "Everything we see indicates it will not be much longer . . . months, not years," Negroponte said. Castro has not been seen publicly since a clip of him was broadcast on television on October 28th. In the clip he appeared drawn and weak. He missed a December 2nd celebration for his 80th birthday and 50th anniversary of the beginning of the Cuban revolution that brought Fidel to power. His brother Raul, to whom Castro turned over power during his illness, gave a brief speech at the event, but did not pass on any message from Fidel. During his speech, Raul said he was willing to begin a dialogue with the U.S. "to settle the long U.S.-Cuba disagreement." The Bush Administration declined the offer, however, saying that the U.S. would negotiate with Cuba once it has shown a commitment to democratic reform. Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon told reporters that under Raul Castro, "the regime has actually become harder and more orthodox and is not in a position to signal in any meaningful way what direction it will take post-Fidel." Contrary to the administration's position, on Friday (16 Dec), ten members of the U.S. House of Representatives flew to Havana to discuss the possibility of easing U.S. trade and travel sanctions in meetings with Communist officials. They also met with Cuba�s Roman Catholic Cardinal Jaime Ortega, as well as foreign diplomats, during their trip, which ended Sunday. It was the largest congressional delegation to visit Cuba since 1959.  [PJK/WashPost 15Dec06, DeYoung/BostonHerald 15Dec06, AP]

RUSSIAN SOURCES SAY DEPARTMENT V SPETSNAZ UNIT MAY HAVE CARRIED OUT LITVINENKO POISONING During the Soviet era, a special detachment of the secret service manned by the special forces or Spetsnaz, known as Department V or simply "Vympel" was responsible for carrying out assassinations abroad. Russian president Vladimir Putin is said to strongly support the unit, and pushed an anti-terrorism bill through the Duma in March that gave the FSB the power to kill terrorists abroad. Vladimir Kozlov, a former deputy head of the Federal Press Agency, held a press conference in August with four senior members of Vympel. Kozlov told reporters that Vympel was well financed. "I must say that this is largely because of our president who knows the unit well and pays much attention to it," Kozlov said. Since Vympel is also involved in the security of nuclear sites in Russia, sources believe the unit would have access to polonium-210, the radioactive poison used to kill ex-KGB officer Alexander Litvinenko in London. "Whether Department V actually exists is a real question," Mark Galeotti, a Russian expert at Keele University, said yesterday. "But I believe that Vympel is back. It used to be a hit squad and maybe it is still used as such but its main function is as a rapid reaction group to counter nuclear theft and terrorism. As such it has some training in various isotopes, although they would not be true specialists, and runs operations at nuclear facilities, which may well have given members the opportunity to access polonium in a more subtle way than sending an order from Moscow." In a USA Today article, AFIO President and former CIA official Gene Poteat is quoted as saying he believes that Russian secret services killed Litvinenko, "and would have done so only after a nod from the highest authority. This highest authority's name is Putin," Poteat added. [CL/Telegraph 16Dec06, Gardham/EAB/USAToday 14Dec06, Tumposky and Nichols]

PELOSI AND DEMOCRATS TO PROPOSE NEW SELECT COMMITTEE TO OVERSEE INTELLIGENCE FUNDING House Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi announced on Thursday (15 Dec) that the new congress, led by Democrats, would form a new select committee to supervise the intelligence budget. The committee will be formed by members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence as well as Appropriations Committee members. The proposal seeks to fulfill a recommendation made by the September 11th Commission which found that congressional oversight of intelligence activities "was dysfunctional and needed to be more centralized." �It�s with really some degree of excitement, frankly, that I make this proposal,� said Ms. Pelosi,. �I know it will make the American people safer.� The Republican-led congress sought to make the changes recommended by the 9/11 committee, but failed when they ran into the traditional roadblocks of senior members of congress unwilling to relinquish power. Although the Democratic proposal does not go as far as the commission's recommendation, one 9/11 committee member, former Democratic Representative Timothy J. Roemer called the initiative, "a creative, bold solution." The new oversight committee would be created through a change to House rules that will be introduced when the 110th Congress convenes on January 4th. It will consist of members of both the Intelligence and Appropriations Committees and make recommendations for intelligence spending to the full Appropriations Committee. House Republican leader John Boehner (OH) remained noncommittal to the idea, saying he would, "take a look at her proposal and confer with my colleagues about it.� Even if the Republicans voted en masse against the proposal, the Democrats, if united, have enough votes to override any minority opposition. Boehner criticized Pelosi's plan, however, saying that it falls short of her campaign promise to enact all the 9/11 commission recommendations. The 9/11 commission recommended a joint House/Senate committee with full funding authority and oversight of intelligence matters. Democrats in the Senate are less enthusiastic about making any changes. [CL/NYT 15Dec06/Hulse]

THREAT OF HOLIDAY TERRORIST ATTACK IN EUROPE EXTREMELY HIGH Western intelligence agencies are warning that the threat of a terrorist attack over the Christmas and New Year holidays is extremely high, especially in Europe. The holiday season is always a period of heightened concern, due to the large volume of travelers, but this year the fear amongst officials is palpable. An unnamed French counterterrorism official said, "all of the warning lights are red," although no official or agency has uncovered any specific plot. "The threat is at its highest level," said the French official. "All [security] services are on tenterhooks. And it's not just us [in France]. Work is under way everywhere but nothing concrete is emerging."  John Reid, Britain's top law-enforcement official said a terrorist attack over the holidays was "very likely." The head of MI-5, the UK's internal intelligence agency, said her agents have been tracking 30 terrorist plots involving over 1600 suspects since the July 2005 bombings in the London underground. U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials said that there is no credible information about a holiday attack and noted that anxiety was always higher around holidays when travel is high. Although the FBI recently sent out a bulletin warning local and state law enforcement agencies to be on the look out for suspicious activities, the belief is that the threat of an attack in Europe is higher than in the U.S. Current U.S. concerns center on the deteriorating health of convicted terrorist cleric Omar Abdel-Rahman. Rahman called for reprisal attacks against the U.S. if he dies in prison. In light of the worries in Europe, French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announced that he would add 250 troops to the 780 that are assigned to patrol the nation's public transportation, rail stations and airports. De Villepin also promised a reserve force of 1,000 troops to respond to emergencies. France's terrorist alert level remains at red, the second highest out of the four color warning scheme. Other European countries have announced only general measures of increased security over the holidays, but did not foresee taking any additional steps until a specific threat was uncovered. [ChicagoTrib 17Dec06/Haven (AP)]

PELOSI'S PICK TO LEAD INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE NEEDS TO DO SOME HOMEWORK Incoming Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi was forced to drop her unpopular pick to head the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) due to opposition both within and outside of her party. Her candidate was Rep. Alcee Hastings, a former federal judge who was impeached and removed from office. This past week Pelosi named a replacement, Rep. Silvestre Reyes, (D-TX). However, now Reyes is under fire for displaying ignorance on some fundamental questions about terrorist groups and the situation in Iraq. During an interview with Jeff Stein, Congressional Quarterly's national security editor, Reyes showed he knew little about militant Islam and our enemy in the War on Terror. Stein asked Reyes if al-Qaeda was Sunni or Shia. At first Reyes answered both, but then changed his answer to Shia. He was wrong on both accounts. Al-Qaeda is "profoundly Sunni," Stein wrote, and many say partly responsible for inciting violence upon the Shia in Iraq. "It's been five years since these Muslim extremists flew hijacked airliners into the World Trade Center. Is it too much to ask that our intelligence overseers know who they are?" Stein said. Reyes further displayed ignorance on Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shia group. "(I)t's hard to keep things in perspective and in the categories," he said. Stein says that average Americans may not be able to keep the Islamic groups straight, but points out that Reyes has been a member of Congress for 10 years and serves on both the Intelligence and Armed Services committees. Reyes also has undertaken numerous trips to meet with soldiers supporting Operations Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan and Iraqi Freedom to "gain first-hand perspective of the situation on the ground. . ." Reyes is not the first elected official found ignorant of current events. When President Bush was first running for election he didn't know who the leader of China was. [UnionLeader 17Dec06]

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

UK LAWSUIT SEEKS RELEASE OF INFORMATION ON WWII TOP SPY 'THE GRIFFIN' "The Griffin" was a top-secret spy feeding the UK's Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) during World War II with information about Nazi Germany's programs on jet aircraft, radar, flying bombs and Nazi attempts to develop the atomic bomb. After the war, the Griffin, aka Paul Wenzel Rosbaud, was secreted out Germany in a British military uniform and resettled in London. Rosbaud's family is now suing MI-6 to release all documents about the Griffin's contribution to the war effort. The family is represented by Cherie Booth, Queen's Counsel (QC), who is the wife of British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Booth's case demands MI-6 to release all documentation on Rosbaud's service �so that the public can properly evaluate and appreciate the undoubtedly great contribution [he] made to the Allied victory at considerable personal risk�. The Investigatory Powers Tribunal, the legal body that investigates the conduct of the Intelligence Service, has refused to rule on the case, but the Rosbaud family vows to press on.
    Rosbaud was born in the Austrian town of Graz in 1896. He studied physics and metallurgy and was a member of the Austrian army during World War I. He said his lifelong "anglophilia" or love for Britain began when he was taken prisoner by British forces. �They did not treat us as enemies, but as unfortunate losers of the war,� he later wrote. He is described as an intellectual liberal. He married a Jewish woman and watched in horror and disgust as the Nazis assumed power in Germany. However, his career blossomed as he became editor of the important scientific periodical Metallwirtschaft, and worked as a scientific expert for the large German publisher Springer Verlag. He associated with many in the German scientific community and in public was part of the German scientific establishment, but privately was plotting against the Nazi government. In 1938, he smuggled his wife and daughter out of the country with the help of Frank Foley, SIS station chief in Berlin. Foley recruited Rosbaud as Der Grief, the Griffin. Although he was offered the chance to remain in London, Rosbaud decided to return to Germany to continue the fight against the Nazis. In 1939, one of the Griffin's first, but most important acts occurred. He received from Professor Otto Hahn, the father of nuclear chemistry, a paper telling how Hahn had split the atom. Recognizing the potential danger of nuclear fission, Rosbaud pulled a paper already scheduled to appear in the physics journal Naturwissenschaften and inserted Hahn's paper instead. This act tipped off the scientific community to the German advances in nuclear physics and started the race for the atomic bomb. Rosbaud is credited with swift action, moving before the Gestapo could suppress Hahn's discovery.
    Rosbaud continued to supply the British with bits of intelligence, about one secret message per month. The messages were smuggled to the U.K. through the French Resistance or via the Norwegian intelligence agency XU. Other times he would encode the messages into books or onto microfilm and hide them on planes between Berlin and Oslo. Much of the Griffin's intelligence was very high value. Although most of his successes remain locked in MI-6 files, he is credited with informing the allies of V2 rockets being constructed at Peenem�nde on the Baltic coast and also supposedly warned that Germany's efforts to build the atomic bomb were failing. This latter piece of intelligence was never passed to the Americans. Rosbaud fled Berlin the day after the failed July Plot to assassinate Hitler, indicating perhaps some complicity in the plot.
    Officially, agent Griffin never existed. Some of his exploits are only credited to �a well-placed writer for a German scientific journal who was in touch with the SIS from spring 1942�. Booth pointed out in her filings to the court that information about SIS station chief Frank Foley was released in prelude to a book on his life entitled, Foley: the Spy who Saved 10,000 Jews by Michael Smith. Booth submits that if the Foley files can be released without harming national security, then so can the Rosbaud/Griffin files. [CL/Times 16Dec06/MacIntyre]

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

STATE DEPARTMENT USES GOOGLE TO COMPILE LIST OF IRANIANS INVOLVED IN NUCLEAR PROGRAM When the CIA refused to give the State Department information about individuals involved in Iran's secret nuclear weapons program, junior State Department officials turned to Google and "open source intelligence." From information gleaned on the public Internet, State complied a list of 12 names including high-ranking members of the Revolution Guard, the hard-line state militia, and directors of several nuclear institutions. The names have been submitted to the U.N. and added to a draft resolution that will freeze the assets of the individuals and slap a travel ban on them. The CIA is now rebuking State's list, saying that none of the 12 are involved in project 1-11, the Iranian program to develop a nuclear-tipped missile. Protecting the original CIA decision not to supply State with information, a CIA official said that the agency could not supply information on individuals that it could not publicly support. "Inevitably, someone would have asked, 'Why this guy?' and then we would have been back to the old problem of justifying intelligence," the unnamed official said. The U.N. resolution is sponsored by France and Britain, both of whom produced lists very similar to the U.S. list. Intelligence agencies from the other countries promise they did not use Google to obtain their intelligence. [CL/Telegraph 12Dec06/McElroy]

DNI NEGROPONTE AWARDS 10 $200,000 RESEARCH GRANTS TO EXPLORE INTELLIGENCE TECHNOLOGY Director of National Intelligence (DNI) John Negroponte and associate director for National Intelligence Science and Technology, Dr. Eric Haseltine presented the second annual DNI Fellows Awards to 10 renowned members of the intelligence community on 15 December at the headquarters for the Office of the DNI. The DNI Fellows Awards program recognizes and rewards outstanding technical achievement within the intelligence community. "Today we're honoring 10 individuals who have distinguished themselves in a field that's critical to our intelligence mission - science and technology," said Negroponte. "I'm confident that their research efforts will be fruitful and that the collaboration and community fostered by this program will energize and optimize our S and T efforts and position us well for the future." Each Fellow receives a $200,000 research grant to fund current or future research initiatives. "We expected that the inaugural fellows, as superstars, would amaze us with their work over the past year, and we weren't disappointed," said Dr. Eric C. Haseltine. "For example, the fellows made significant progress with technology to locate terrorists and to extract intelligence from remote areas. But some of the fellows' biggest contributions came from work we did not expect: spontaneous collaborations that attacked some of our nation's toughest intelligence challenges." Fellows are selected based on outstanding technical contributions, the expectation of significant technical advances based upon their track record of achievement, and the potential for the fellowship to facilitate subsequent technical work and collaboration across the intelligence community. This years awardees include Carey Buxton, Ph.D. - FBI; Daniel Cress, Ph.D. - CIA;  John Egan, Ph.D. - NRO; Steven Gotoff - DIA; Michelle Keeney, Ph.D. - DHS; Stephen Malys - NGA; Catherine Marsh, Ph.D. - CIA; Timothy Persons, Ph.D. - NSA; and Kirsten Whitley, Ph.D. - NSA. One recipient was not named due to his/her sensitive position with the his/her organization. [USNewswire 15Dec06]

SECTION IV - BOOKS, SOURCES AND ISSUES

Yellow Rain: Lessons from an Earlier WMD Controversy, Merle L. Pribbenow, in International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, vol. 19, no. 4, Winter 2006. AFIO member Merle Pribbenow informs us that CIA's Publications Review Board cleared his article for publication and it appears in the current issue of IJIC. The article is available online for purchase at http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/routledg/ujic/2006/00000019/00000004/art00010. [MerleP/IJIC Dec06/Pribbenow]

On the Brink: An Insider's Account of How the White House Compromised American Intelligence, Tyler Drumheller with Elaine Monaghan, Carroll & Graf., ISBN: 078671915X, $26.95 Drumheller, the CIA's former chief in Europe, provides an insider's expose of Curveball, who was one of the government's primary sources on Iraq's WMD programs in the run up to the war. Curveball was a former Baghdad taxi driver who won asylum in Germany by telling the BND that he was a former engineer in Saddam's biological weapons program. Drumheller tells of how German intelligence officials warned him that Curveball shouldn't be trusted, and that a highly placed source that Drumheller had in the Hussein government was saying that Iraq's WMD stockpiles had been destroyed. Drumheller's thesis is that the Bush Administration was intent on war and would not be dissuaded by conflicting intelligence. [CL/WashPost 12Dec06/Bamford]