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SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

BUSH TAPS FORMER DCI GATES TO REPLACE RUMSFELD AT THE PENTAGON Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld tendered his resignation shortly after the Democrats claimed victory over the U.S. House of Representatives Wednesday. Later that day the Democrats would also gain control of the Senate when Virginia Senator George Allen conceded to his opponent Jim Webb who won out with a razor thin advantage. Whether Rumsfeld resigned of his own accord, or was allowed to resign can be debated. Mr. Rumsfeld had become a lightning rod, drawing a preponderance of the criticism for all that was wrong in Iraq. President Bush has named Robert Gates, former CIA chief during his father's administration (1991-93) to replace Rumsfeld. AFIO member Ron Kessler, writing in NewsMax.com's Washington Wire, contrasts Gates with Rumsfeld, calling Gates a thoughtful man and brilliant analyst who will analyze the U.S. position in Iraq dispassionately. The President admitted that the administration's handling of the war played a large part in the Democrats' success in the elections. Bush said that Gates , "... is a steady, solid leader who can help make the necessary adjustments in our approach to meet our current challenges." The Senate still must confirm Gates to his post, and Gates is not without controversy. He was the deputy director of the CIA during the Iran-Contra affair, although he said he knew nothing about the clandestine operation to sell arms to the Iranians in order to secure the release of U.S. hostages and funnel the proceeds to the Contras in Nicaragua. A review by the CIA General Counsel seemed to support Gates' claim. Another brush with controversy came as Gates ascended as Director at the CIA. During his confirmation hearings several CIA analysts testified that Gates skewed intelligence to support Reagan administration policies. Former Secretary of State George Shultz echoed this charge in his memoir retelling of a confrontation he had with Gates, "You deal out intelligence as you deem appropriate. I feel an effort is made to manipulate me by the selection of materials you send my way." This criticism may be a particular point of attack during Gates' confirmation hearing since the Bush administration is already under attack for allegedly "cherry picking" pre-war intelligence to sell the Iraq war to the American people. Gates is currently president of Texas A&M University and is serving on the bipartisan Iraq Study Group co-chaired by James Baker and Lee Hamilton. In accepting the President's nomination, Gates said, "Because so many of America�s sons and daughters in our armed forces are in harm�s way, I did not hesitate when the president asked me to return to duty."   [RonK, PJK/NewsMax 9Nov06, Kessler/Briebart 8Nov06/WashPost 10Nov06, Mann]

RARE PUBLIC STATEMENT FROM CHIEF OF MI-5 WARNS OF MORE TERRORIST THREATS Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the chief of Britain's MI-5 internal intelligence agency, rarely speaks in public. So it is with interest and concern that the citizens of the U.K. listened when she recently proclaimed that MI-5 was tracking 30 terrorist plots, and described the problem as "serious and growing." At an invitation-only gathering at Queen Mary College, Mannigham-Buller said that 200 groups consisting of over 1600 people were "...actively engaged in plotting or facilitating, terrorist acts here and overseas." She warned that Islamic extremist groups were using rapid radicalization of British Muslim youths in order to recruit in U.K. schools teenagers to carry out suicide bombings. Dame Eliza also said that terrorist activity in the U.K. was worsening, with an 80% increase in MI-5 cases since January. Although the staff of MI-5 has grown by 50% since the attacks of September 11, 2001, and the budget by 30%, Manningam-Buller fears that the problem will last at least a generation, and outstrip MI-5's ability to investigate enough suspicious activities to safeguard the homeland. She said, "'Because of the sheer scale of what we face, the task is daunting. We shan't always make the right choices and we recognize that we shall have scarce sympathy if we are unable to prevent one of our targets committing an atrocity." Prime Minister Tony Blair supported Dame Eliza's comments, saying, "It's not just in this country, as we've seen recently from incidents in India, France, other parts of the world. This is a threat that has grown up over a generation."  Manningham-Buller pointed as evidence of the enormity of the problem to surveys that showed over 100,000 Muslims believed the July 7, 2004 attacks on the British underground were justified. Simultaneous to Manningham-Buller's speech, Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett was on the other side of the country calling on moderate British Muslims to "stand up and be counted," recognizing that "[t]he vast majority are sickened by the slur on their great and noble faith" and that "the Muslim communities, have a special ability to make a difference in the struggle against extremism." [CameronL, PJK/BBC 10Nov06/Telegraph 11Nov06, Johnston]

MILITARY INTERROGATORS AWAITING THEIR CHANCE TO TALK WITH AL-QAEDA LEADERS AT GUANTANAMO Paul Rester, director of intelligence at Camp Delta, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba said that he doubts further interrogation of the fourteen terrorist suspects that were transferred from CIA secret prisons on Labor Day, including Khalid Sheik Mohammed (KSM) the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, would reveal any smoking guns or new terrorist plots. The prisoners had already been questioned by the CIA, some allegedly with harsh techniques such as water-boarding. He hopes, though, that his military interrogators might be able to fill in some gaps in their knowledge of how al-Qaeda operates. He said each detainee will be offered a "reservation," the Guantanamo term for the chance to talk voluntarily with military and civilian interrogators who feed the U.S. intelligence network with information from the prisoners at the camp. President Bush identified the fourteen as being the planners and financiers of the September 11th attacks, the October 2000 attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen that killed seventeen sailors, and the Bali resort bombing that killed 202 people in October 2002. Although these suspects were moved to Guantanamo primarily to stand trial, Rester says he would be remiss if he did not at least try to learn from them. During a recent two-day media tour, the whereabouts of the fourteen suspects was kept secret, but the senior commander, Rear Admiral Harry Harris said they were receiving the same provisions and treatment as the other prisoners held at the camp, some for as long as five years. Rester and Harris said that all interrogations were now voluntary and offered that they talk for "self expression," "vindication" or "just to do a little `battle of wits' thing" with U.S. military interrogators. He hopes that the fourteen may provide details not yet known about al-Qaeda's modus operandi such as how terrorists move to the United States, identification of future leaders, and the intricacies of the al-Qaeda organization. Rester revealed that recently a group of young Bosnian fighters have begun to emerge in Iraq, and "the people who laid the groundwork for their recruitment are in this camp." [PJK/KCStar 3Nov06/Rosenberg]'

CIA FEARS COUNTER-INTERROGATION TRAINING BY TERRORISTS COULD DEFEAT ALTERNATE METHODS IF REVEALED The CIA argued before a federal judge that alternate interrogation methods must be kept secret, even from a suspect's lawyers, or national security could be jeopardized. The defense countered that the CIA was using the national security issue to hide illegal activity, such as torture. The CIA contends that if al-Qaeda were to learn of the alternate interrogation methods the terrorists could tailor their training to prepare their followers to counter the techniques thereby inhibiting the CIA's ability to learn of future terrorist plots. The lawyers in this case are representing Majid Khan, a Pakistani who had lived for five years in the U.S. at the time of his arrest. Mr. Khan was charged with working with Khalid Sheik Mohammed to research how to blow up gasoline stations and poison water supplies. Mr. Khan and his family vehemently deny the charges and say that any confession that he may have given was false and coerced under harsh interrogation techniques. This case may also challenge the Military Commissions Act recently passed by Congress and signed into law by President Bush that denies "unlawful enemy combatants" the right to file habeas corpus petitions in U.S. courts challenging their imprisonment. The law provides for a prisoner's detainment to be reviewed by a military commission to determine the prisoner's status. Kathleen Blomquist, a Justice Department spokesperson, said that the U.S. government is not trying to stop a prisoner from talking to his lawyer, but asks the court to recognize some details of the detainees processing are highly classified. The camp at Guantanamo was set up only to handle information classified Secret, but Blomquist says the details of the fourteen suspects recently transferred from CIA custody are classified Top Secret. The government wants a protective order in place that governs the information that a detainee can share with his lawyer and recognizes the higher security level. Gitanjali S. Gutierrez of the Center for Constitutional Rights, a New York-based advocacy group that represents many Guantanamo prisoners, said, �The government should not be allowed to torture someone and use that as a justification to keep that information from the American public.� [CameronL/NYT 5Nov06/Shane]

SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

RUMORS OF BIN LADEN'S DEATH CONTINUE TO GAIN MOMENTUM In September, WINs reported on rumors coming out of France that Osama bin Laden had died of typhoid in Pakistan [WINS #38-06]. The French news agency L'Est Republican based their reporting on information allegedly from Saudi intelligence sources. The Saudi's publicly denied the claim. However, new evidence based on the erratic behavior of Saudi recruits returning from al-Qaeda training in Pakistan, reported by the Washington Times is lending more credence to bin Laden's demise. A Saudi intelligence expert who monitors trends amongst terrorist groups, Nawaf Obaid, said that al-Qaeda fighters returning from Afghanistan and Pakistan have lacked attack plans and possessed no clear command structure. Obaid said, "They focused exclusively on avoiding Saudi security services." And the numbers of these returnees do not indicate a trickle, but a flood as scores are returning- disorganized, unpaid, and without any idea of what to do in the Kingdom. Saudi intelligence and counter-insurgency groups have been reorganized and successful in penetrating al-Qaeda groups operating in Saudi Arabia. Their consensus is that the groups that have been broken up have been unable to reestablish any command structure. [WashTimes 10Nov06/Salhani (UPI)]

IRAN'S ACTIVITIES MAY BE SPURRING A NUCLEAR RACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS SIX MORE NATIONS ANNOUNCE PLANS Algeria, Egypt, U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Tunisia yesterday announced plans to begin nuclear programs. These announcements come as the West and U.N. have seemed powerless to slow Iranian progress towards the enrichment of uranium necessary both for civilian power plants as well as nuclear weapons. If followed, the six new nuclear programs would blanket one of the world's most unstable regions with nuclear research including the Middle East, Levant and North Africa. Although the nations claim they are seeking peaceful uses for nuclear energy, such as powering desalination plants necessary for fresh water in the arid desert countries, many experts believe that the desire exists to obtain the first Arab nuclear weapon to offset Iranian ambitions. This signals a sudden reversal of traditional Arab policy that called for a nuclear free Middle East, where only Israel was suspected to have nuclear weapons. While Egypt and the other North African countries can make a plausible claim that they require nuclear energy to compensate for growing populations and increased oil prices, the argument is harder for Saudi Arabia which sits on the world's largest reserve of petroleum. [PJK/LondonTimes 4Nov06/Beeston]

SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

U.S. ON-LINE ARCHIVE OF CAPTURED IRAQI DOCUMENTS SHUT DOWN AFTER NUCLEAR WEAPONS PLANS DISCOVERED Nuclear weapons experts and foreign diplomats complained to the U.S. government about Iraqi documents released to the public that could act as a guide to developing a nuclear weapon. Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte has shut down the website where the documents resided while an investigation is underway. The atomic guide was released on a site setup to provide public access to documents captured in Iraq. In March 2005, Congressional Republicans called on the President to make public up to 48,000 boxes of captured Iraqi documents. The hope of the Republicans was that public scrutiny of the documents would find what intelligence collectors and analysts had not- evidence of Saddam Hussein's reinvigoration of his WMD programs after the 1991 Gulf War. A web archive sponsored by the Foreign Military Studies Office, was established and named the Operation Iraqi Freedom Documents collection. The nuclear document in question predated the Gulf War, but showed that Hussein's research was about a year from developing the technology and know-how to produce a nuclear weapon. Experts say that no one could have developed a nuclear weapon from scratch using the publicized documents, which contained diagrams, equations and solutions to problems that Iraqi scientists encountered. However, the documents could help a country that had a nuclear program, such as Iran. As one expert put it, "it shows you how to get from point A to point B, but you have to have a car first." Therefore, counterterrorism authorities do not believe the release will lead to a terrorist group developing its own nuclear weapon. As of this writing (11 Nov), the collection is still offline. [PJK/NYT 3Nov06/Broad]

U.S. HOMELAND SECURITY DATABASE WILL MAINTAIN PROFILES ON ALL WHO ENTER AND EXIT THE U.S. FOR UP TO 40 YEARS Privacy advocates are gearing up for another fight since the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced in the Federal Registry that it would start risk profiling all who enter or leave the U.S. and maintain that data for up to 40 years. Up till now, the government has only actively screened air passengers. This new development signals the expansion of the program to travelers conveying via land vehicle, sea or even on foot. The government will use the Automated Targeting System (ATS) that was originally designed to track cargo in drug investigations. Critics of the program doubt the government's ability to handle the scope of data that will be coming into the system. Stephen E. Flynn, senior fellow for national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said, "The reality of it is customs is barely able to manage the data they have." [WashPost 3Nov06/Nakashima, Hsu]

FBI'S OPERATION CARDKEEPER CRACKS DOWN ON INTERNATIONAL IDENTITY THIEVES The FBI has arrested over a dozen people in the United States and overseas involved in on-line communities where bank account data, credit card data and other personal financial information is trafficked. Crediting the use of sophisticated technology and evidence sharing, James E. Finch, assistant director of the FBI's Cyber Division said, "Cyber criminals will no longer be able to hide behind borders to conduct their illicit business." The on-line forums are used as market places for information such as the data copied from the magnetic strip on credit cards to make counterfeit cards, and social security numbers that can be used to obtain credit cards in a victim's name. To date, Operation Cardkeeper has in custody in the U.S. Frederick T. Hale, 27, and Zanadu Lyons, 24, both of Columbus, Ohio, and Dana Carlotta Warren, 29, of Ellenwood, Ga, and the FBI has served warrants in Albany, N.Y.; Atlanta; Dallas; Knoxville, Tenn.; Memphis; and Omaha. Additionally, the FBI assisted Polish authorities to nab 11 people in Poland who were linked to on-line phishing campaigns from 2004. Phishing involves setting up fraudulent, but realistic banking and other financial websites and then emailing victims to trick them into visiting the fake sites and entering their username, account information and password. The victim often doesn't even know they've been had until its too late. Two years ago the FBI arrested 28 people associated with the Shadowcrew and Carderplanet fraud forums which traded stolen information from more than 1.7 million credit card accounts. [WashPost 3Nov06/Krebs]

SECTION IV - BOOKS, SOURCES AND ISSUES

Sources

U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT FEATURES A 7-PART SERIES ON U.S. INTELLIGENCE REFORM The U.S. News and World Report website is featuring a seven-part series on "what's been called the most sweeping effort to reform the U.S. intelligence community in nearly 60 years." Reporters David E. Kaplan and Kevin Whitelaw spent months investigating and interviewing nearly two dozen of the community's most senior officials. The series parts are entitled  Introduction, The Money, The Spies, The Computers, The Analysts, The Scientists, and The Future. [CameronL/USNews/Kaplan and Whitelaw]

SECTION V - CAREERS, NOTES, LETTERS, QUERIES AND AUTHORS SEEKING ASSISTANCE, CORRECTIONS, OBITUARIES, COMING EVENTS
[IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" nor endorse career offers, research inquiries or announcements. Reasonable-sounding inquiries are published as a service to members. Exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information or making referrals to colleagues. Members should obtain prior approval from their agencies before answering questions that would impact ongoing military or intelligence operations - even if unclassified. Never assume public inquiries about classified projects means they've been declassified. Be attuned to false-flagging.

Careers

Seeking Assistance

COLD WAR RESEARCHER SEEKING INFORMATION ON JOINT CIA/CIC/WEST GERMAN INTELLIGENCE PROJECT IN DARMSTADT I am in the process of writing a memoir about the Cold War. My father, James Corey, was a career intelligence agent. From July 1956 through July 1957, my father was assigned to a joint  CIA/CIC/West German Intelligence operation in Darmstadt. The CIA agent assigned to the Field Office during this time frame was Ted Hoop (or at least that's the name that I recall). I am hoping to find more information about the joint Intelligence project. It's possible that the project remains classified; but it's also possible that it has been declassified as part of the Nazi War Crimes Disclosure Act. I am also trying to find out the identity of a former colleague of my father's who allegedly defected to the Russians. Contact Jane Ritchey at jane@ritcheycommunications.com or write her at Jane Ritchey, 127 Fulmar Circle NE, Fort Walton Beach, FL 32548, call her at Home phone: 850-244-7957; Toll free number: 866-815-8508; Cell phone: 850-496-4636.

Obituary

Markus Wolf, East German Spy Chief, Dead at 83 The intelligence apparatus that Markus Wolf built in Communist East Germany ranked with the Soviet Union's KGB as the best in the Warsaw Pact. Wolf would later protect his life's work as having aided in East-West detente. Wolf died peacefully in his sleep in Berlin at the age of 83. Wolf's spy network consisted of over 4,000 agents and was particularly successful in West Germany where one of his agent rose to be a senior aide to Chancellor Willy Brandt. The discovery of the agent, G�nter Guillaume, in 1974 lead to Brandt's resignation. Wolf lead the East German security service for over 30 years and became known in the West as "the Man without a Face" since western intelligence agencies did not know what he looked like. His face was finally uncovered in 1976 when Swedish counterintelligence photographed him while on a mission in Stockholm and an East German defector later put a name to the face. After German Reunification in 1990, Wolf escaped to the Soviet Union since there was a warrant for his arrest. However, he returned a year later and was arrested by German authorities. He received a six year sentence for treason and bribery, but his sentence was overturned based on the fact that he was operating on behalf of a sovereign state. He did receive a suspended sentence in 1997 for three Cold War kidnappings.  [LawrenceS/Spiegel 9Nov06]

Coming Events

14 November 06 - Arlington, VA - Defense Intelligence Alumni Association (DIAA) The eighth annual Defense Intelligence Alumni Association (DIAA) luncheon will be held at the Columbus Club of Arlington, 5115 Little Falls Road, Arlington, Va. LTG Patrick Hughes, USA (Ret), will speak on The Challenge of Homeland Security. Social hour begins at 1100. Lunch will be served at 1215. The cost is $20 per person for members and guests. Mail checks (payable to DIAA, Inc) to DIAA, ATTN: Luncheon, PO Box 489, Hamilton, VA 20159.

16 November 06 - Colorado Springs, CO - AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter holds meeting at Air Force Academy Officers Club in the Falcon Room, starting at 11:30, lunch served at 12:00 and meeting ends at 1:30 pm. LTC. Ed Rothstein, G2 of Division West will discuss recent combat experiences in OIF. The local chapter of MOAA has arranged the speaker. Questions or Reservations to Dick Durham, 719-488-2884. or Riverwear53@aol.com.

Thursday, 16 November 06 - Washington, DC - 6:30 pm - Domestic Spying: Anti-Terrorism or Anti-American?  “There is no time to waste on hairsplitting over infringement of liberty.” — The Washington Post approving the Palmer raids of January 1920.  The Spy Museum asks if President George W. Bush’s domestic surveillance program is a critical terrorism prevention tool or illegal intrusion on fundamental U.S. rights?  Navigate this politically charged issue with the help of moderator, Gene Policinski, executive director of the First Amendment Center, and a panel made up of: Eric Lichtblau, The New York Times Pulitzer-Prize winning journalist who revealed the formerly secret anti-terrorism domestic spying techniques being used to halt terrorists; Spike Bowman, formerly Senior Executive Service, FBI, currently a member of AFIO's Board of Directors and a distinguished fellow, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University; Kate Martin, director of the Center for National Security Studies; and Bob O’Harrow, The Washington Post reporter and author of No Place to Hide.  Tickets: $20. Space is limited - advance registration required at the www.spymuseum.org

6 December 06 - Orange Park, FL - AFIO North Florida Chapter Meeting. Contact Quiel Begonia at begonia@coj.net for details. Meeting held at Orange Park Country Club, 2625 Country Club Blvd, Orange Park , FL.

8 December 06 - New York, NY - AFIO NY Metro Chapter Evening Meeting.  AFIO NY Metro holds evening meeting at Society of Illustrators Building, 128 East 63rd St, (between Park and Lexington). Check-in: 5:30 PM - 6:00 PM. Dr. David M. Barrett, Villanova University (Ph.D in political science), will be the honored guest. His remarkable new book, "The CIA and Congress: The Untold Story from Truman to Kennedy" has just been awarded the D.B. Hardeman prize for the Best Book of the Year on Congress. Professor Barrett will focus especially on the agency's early years, when the Cold War was at its peak. Professor Barrett's book, published by the University Press of Kansas, will be available for purchase and signing at the dinner. The book provides the remarkable inside story of the highly secret, often contentious relationship between the CIA and Congress. Buffet dinner, tables of eight. $45pp, includes drinks, coffee, dessert. Cash bar. Registration and more information available from Jerry Goodwin, Chapter President, at 212-308-1450, or email him at afiometro@yahoo.com.

12 December 06 - Tampa, FL- AFIO Suncoast Chapter meets at 11:30 a.m. at the Officers' Club, at MacDill Air Force Base. The luncheon speaker is James Pavitt. A 31-year veteran of CIA, who in 1999 was appointed Deputy Director for Operations to head what is now known as the National Clandestine Service, the CIA directorate responsible for the clandestine collection of foreign intelligence. He had served as Associate Deputy Director for Operations from July 1997 through July 1999. He served longer in that position than any DDO in the last 30 years until retiring from CIA and the DO in August 2004. After joining the Agency in 1973 as a Career Trainee, he served in a variety of intelligence assignments in Europe, Asia and at CIA Headquarters. In 1990, he was assigned to the National Security Council as the Director for Intelligence Programs. In June 1992, President Bush appointed him Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and NSC Senior Director for Intelligence Programs. Mr. Pavitt began his intelligence career in the United States Army from 1969-1971 as an intelligence officer. Jim Pavitt is currently a principle at the Scowcroft Group and also serves as a member of the AFIO National Board of Directors. For more information contact Don White, DonWhite@tampabay.rr.com

12-14 December 06 - Chantilly, VA - MASINT V - The MASINT Association's Annual Conference will be held with the National Reconnaissance Office. This year’s conference, open to appropriately cleared personnel from the US, UK, Canada and Australia, is focused on “Collaborating for Success” with co-chairs from the ODNI and the MASINT Association. The Director of National Intelligence, Ambassador John Negroponte has been invited to be Keynote Speaker. Information on the conference and registration are at http://www.masint.org/index_masint_activities.htm  or at https://www.myaoc.org/EWEB/dynamicpage.aspx?webcode=121206_MASINTV.

New Addition for 2007....

9-14 September 2007 - Oxford, United Kingdom - Christ Church Conflict Conference 2007 "The Nature of War" The object of the 2007 Conflict conference is to study War in its various manifestations, its apparent �permanence as a feature of the human condition� (Clausewitz), and the successes and failures of attempts to control it. The program looks first of the basic steps on the road to war, not least an examination of alternatives to armed conflict. Next, the different types of war: civil wars that engulfed the English-speaking world in the 17th and 19th centuries, or Bosnia in 1990; conventional warfare between nation states: the 20th century and its two world wars, guerilla wars and the conflicts of decolonization - and the uniqueness of the Falklands War of 1982. All these will come under scrutiny. The pervading granular warfare that engages us all today with the threat of terrorism, focused closely on the present Iraqi conflict. Finally there will be an examination of the outcomes of war and the inevitable social change that comes in its wake. Christ Church welcomes speakers of the highest distinction and scholarship. Speakers at the Nature of War conference are drawn from amongst political and military experts as well as the media. Amongst those participating are Professor Kenneth Hagan of the US Naval War College; Larry Hollingworth, with personal experience of the Iraqi conflict and a veteran of Afghanistan, Chechnya and East Timor; and Major-General Julian Thompson, military commander in the Falklands War. The program will be administered by Alex Webb, and her Christ Church conference team. Further information will be shortly published on the Christ Church website and an illustrated prospectus will be available. Contact Nature of War, The Steward's Office, Christ Church, Oxford, OX1 1DP, U.K. or email conflict@chch.ox.ac.uk, telephone +44 (0) 1865 286848.

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