SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS

TERRORIST THREATS? There's been a lot of hoopla in the media, the academic journals and the speeches government policymakers about the threat of terrorists with weapons of mass destruction, eg, "a lone terrorist with a small vial of anthrax spores could easily attack New York City or Washington, killing 100's of thousands." Perhaps. And President Clinton is said to have called a NSC meeting to discuss an alarming new novel, "The Cobra Event," by Richard Preston, which is about "bioterrorism." Well, the issue has certainly got my attention. I'm sufficiently alarmed. Nevertheless, it is worth noting, that there are some naysayers who argue that "counterterrorism" is such a growth industry it could turn out to be a bigger problem than terrorism itself. David Kopel of the Cato Institute, for example, recently pointed out that, on average, 200 Americans a year have been killed by terrorists, fewer than the 317 who died falling off ladders and far fewer than the 42,000 killed each year in automobile accidents.

Also, the fall issue of the journal FOREIGN POLICY has an article, "The Great Surperterrorism Scare," by Ehud Sprinzak, a professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem. (If you have thoughts on this, I would urge you to read Dr Sprinzak's article first, <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/ART4.htm> ) That same issue of Foreign Policy, by the way, has an article by David Shearer, "Outsourcing War," which deals with the growth of commercial military firms (mercenaries?) that are becoming big players, especially in peacekeeping operations. (eg, the Alexandria, VA based MPRI firm, which is run by retired US flag officers and which helped get the Croatian Army up to speed in 1995 (which led to a new balance of power in the Balkans and which, in turn, made the Dayton Accords possible.) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-08/27/131l-082798-idx.html

PENTAGON DEFLECTS INFO WARFARE ATTACK. The Pentagon resisted Internet activists who attempted to hold an "online sit-in" Wednesday, Sept 8, at the Defense Department's main Web site. The attack, which attempted to overwhelm the Web servers, also targeted sites for the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and the President of Mexico. "Our support personnel were aware of this planned electronic civil disobedience attack and were able to take appropriate countermeasures," said Defense Department spokeswoman Suzan Hansen. The group of Internet activists, who call themselves Electronic Disturbance Theater, support the Zapatista rebels in Chiapas, fighting against the Mexican government. To draw attention to this cause, they attempted to temporarily disable certain Web sites by asking demonstrators to load a hostile Web-based program called FloodNet. <<http://www.wired.com:80/news/news/politics/story/14931.html>

INSECT-LIKE ROBOTIC SURVEILLANCE PLATFORMS? We have previously reported on MAV's, or micro aerial vehicles, which are 6 inch long drone aircraft with tiny cameras and other intelligence sensors that, when developed, will be able to be carried in a soldier's backpack. Well, the latest wrinkle in this astonishing idea, is that the MAV's may be insect-like -- that is, powered by flapping wings or wiggling over the ground like snakes. Scientists at the Georgia Tech Research Institute have just received a $2.6 million DARPA contract to explore insect-like robotics. (jdmac) http://www.infomanage.com/conflictresolution/military/weapons/14bugs.htm

GLOBAL HAWK RECONNAISSANCE UAV. A recent test of the Global Hawk unmanned air vehicle (UAV) paves the way for more rapid testing in the future and for sensor payload testing this fall. The test confirmed that the Global Hawk, built by Teledyne Ryan Aeronautical, San Diego, can fly above 60,000 feet. Global Hawk, designed to fly autonomously for 40 hours at altitudes up to 65,000 feet. (Defense News, 9/8) (jdmac)

EPIDEMIC OF ANALYTICAL PROBLEMS? - First, the Intelligence Community missed India's preparations for a nuclear test. Then the Community was wracked by the still-unresolved controversy over whether the Sudanese pharmaceutical plant struck by U.S. missiles was indeed making or hiding components for chemical weapons. Now analysts are trying to resolve still another significant intelligence flap. On August 31, did North Korea lob an intermediate range ballistic missile over Japan, or did it try to put its first satellite into orbit? Two weeks later, intelligence analysts and technicians from the CIA, DIA and a host of military and other agencies still are poring over radar and imagery data collected from Navy ships, Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, and satellites that were in the region on the day of the suspected missile flight. The latest seems to be that whatever it was, it reveals a N Korean missile with a range capability to strike Alaska, which is arriving a decade or more before the intelligence community had estimated. <http://www.abcnews.com:80/sections/world/DailyNews/nkorea980911.html>

AFIO SEPTEMBER LUNCHEON. As many of you experienced, AFIO's Sept 14 luncheon at the Ft Myers O'Club was both edifying and moving.

DR JANE HAMILTON-MERRITT, the pre-luncheon speaker, is author of TRAGIC MOUNTAINS: THE HMONG, THE AMERICANS, AND THE SECRET WARS FOR LAOS, 1942-1992, Indiana U Press, 1993. "Dr Jane," as the Hmong people know her, has written six other books and served in Southeast Asia in the 1960's as a war correspondent. She has since been tirelessly fighting for the cause of Hmong veterans and their families -- which has earned her a Nobel Prize nomination. We were all very much moved by her description of the Hmong people's heroic 15+ year guerrilla struggle under CIA leadership during the Vietnam war, the subsequent (and continuing) use by Vietnam and Laos of lethal chemicals to eradicate the Hmong, and the plight of Hmong refugees in this country today. She urged support of pending legislation that would ease naturalization requirements, allowing Hmong veterans to take citizenship tests with an interpreter.

MG JACK SINGLAUB, the post-luncheon speaker, continued with Laos. Specifically, he talked about "Operation Tailwind," the 1970 SOG raid into Laos that was the subject, infamously, of a wildly erroneous CNN broadcast last June and a follow-on article in Time magazine. General Singlaub, an AFIO member, explained first about MACVSOG, the special operations group, and then went into great detail about the commendable and real (as opposed to CNN's phony) "Operation Tailwind." He then introduced Retired Colonel Clyde Sincere, Capitol Chapter secretary of the Special Forces Association. Col Sincere told us about the CNN story -- and about being interviewed and arranging other interviews with April Oliver, the now fired CNN reporter/producer who had told him she was doing a story about the "heroes of special operations."

While the June CNN story was outrageous, I personally see some good that has already come from it and more is likely. Back in the 60's, 70's and 80's, stories like this were commonplace and no one paid attention to protests from "the troops." Well, that's changing, and this CNN fiasco, I think, has been a watershed. There was major reaction to this story. Not only have veterans organizations and conservatives protested, but pundits and editorial writers across the country really raked CNN over the coals on this one. CNN and Time, of course, have apologized profusely, fired two CNN people (another resigned) and retracted the story. In the aftermath, CNN's ratings are down some 13%, and I understand they are having trouble with some of their sponsors. Meanwhile, there are several multimillion dollar lawsuits going forward against CNN and the reporters and producers involved.

And this comes on the heels of the the grotesque and false 1996 San Jose Mercury News story about the CIA and cocaine. That story, you recall, also led to scathing criticism from other media (NY Times, Wash Post, etc), great embarrassment for the paper, a retraction, and an apology. Gary Webb, the reporter who wrote the story is no longer employed by the Mercury News, indeed, he's no longer a journalist. So, I think things are getting better -- the media are on notice now that they can't bash the military or the intelligence community with false or careless stories and expect to get away with it. At least I hope so. Stay tuned... Another good thing: the CNN story caused the Pentagon to take a close look at "Tailwind," and instead of finding anything sinister or unsavory, they found an abundance of heroism and noble deeds. They are now considering a whole array of upgraded medals and awards for the participants, possibly even a Medal of Honor for the twice wounded medic who continued to care for others.

INTELLIGENCE BUDGET. In May and June respectively the House and Senate passed their versions of the Intelligence Authorization bill for Fiscal Year 1999, which begins this October 1st -- next week. There will have to be a conference committee convened to resolve differences. The two bills (S2052 & HR3694) are mostly classified but are believed to contain some significant differences. SENATE: Subsequent to the FY1999 budget being approved by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, the Senate Armed Services Committee took money from the intelligence pot. (Intelligence does not have its own appropriation, but is hidden within the Defense budget.) Senator John Glenn was especially angered that the "stolen" money went for pork barrel items. Some of the money was later restored in low-profile floor action but not all. The Senate is believed to have significantly reduced the President's request for intelligence funds.

THE HOUSE, meanwhile, voted for a small increase over the President's request. I'm told that Senate and House committee staff have now ironed out most differences and there will probably be a formal Conference Committee next week. Funding will end up, it's believed, at the amount requested by the President.

OTHER UNRESOLVED ISSUES: The Senate committee continues to advocate more attention to SMO, intelligence support for military operations, while the House committee seems to believe there's already too much SMO, which they fear comes at the expense of intelligence support for national-level policymakers in Washington. Also, there is pending legislation (HR695) that would relax export controls on "unbreakable" encryption as well as "whistle blower" protection bills (S1668 & HR3829) that would encourage Intelligence Community (IC) employees to go on their own initiative to Congress with complaints or classified information.

BUDGET DISCLOSURE? The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has filed suit (again) to compel the CIA to disclose the amount of the total budget request for intelligence for FY1999). In 1996, the "Aspin-Brown Commission" unanimously recommended that the total intelligence budget should be released. That did not happen, however, so last year FAS filed a lawsuit, which led to the DCI's disclosure of the total intelligence appropriation for FY1997 ($26.6 billion) and for FY 1998 ($26.7 billion).

IMPLEMENTATION OF INTELLIGENCE "REFORM" MEASURES. The Administration has been slow to implement several far reaching intelligence reforms incorporated in FY1997 legislation, passed two years ago in late 1996.

ADDITIONAL POSITIONS REQUIRING CONFIRMATION: Four additional positions requiring Senate confirmation were created in that law: That of Deputy DCI for Community Management plus three Assistant DCI's -- for Collection, for Analysis & Production, and for Administration. The IC and the Administration strongly opposed those provisions and have dragged their feet. This May, nearly two years after the positions became law, Joan Dempsey, a career intelligence officer, was sworn in as Deputy DCI for Community Management. The three Acting Assistant DCI's were finally appointed this summer under a "side agreement" between the Administration and Congress that they would serve for only one year and not be subject to Senate confirmation -- circumventing the law. DARO: FY1998 legislation, passed one year ago, directed DOD to remove control over development and acquisition of one of the most promising of new intelligence collection technologies, UAV's, unmanned aerial vehicles, from the DARO, the Defense Airborne Reconnaissance Office -- effectively gutting that relatively new organization. (At the time, the HPSCI [House Committee] wanted to eliminate DARO while the SSCI wanted to commend and expand it.) Apparently, the Administration is now moving to transition DARO's responsibilities to the Asst Sec Def for C3I, a Pentagon office -- although DARO still exists, for now.
<http://www.acq.osd.mil/daro/homepage/daro.html>
http://www.dtic.mil/c3i/

NEW WASHINGTON POST INTELLIGENCE REPORTER. Vernon Loeb has been assigned as intelligence reporter at The Washington Post. He's been with The Post for 3 years and before that worked at The Philadelphia Inquirer for 16 years, where he served as Southeast Asia correspondent based in Manila and covered Tiannanmen Square, Philippine coups and the Gulf War. Loeb's story about the CIA Counterterrorism Center in the Sept 9 Post was, in my view, very good. Among other things, he said the Center has "100's of employees" and that a special "bin Laden Station" with dozens" of officers was established within the Center last January. Mr Loeb told Robert Steele [of OSS fame who passed this on to me] that he, Loeb, prides himself on reporting "both the successes and failures of government. To dwell only on failure and scandal, as some reporters unfortunately do," he says, "is to cheat readers and tell only part of the story." Loeb went on to ask Steele to encourage his friends and contacts to call him any time they wish with story ideas, tips, complaints, etc. (jdmac)
Vernon Loeb: (202) 334-6191; Pager, (202) 996-4376; loebv@washpost.com
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-09/09/056l-090998-idx.html

STRATFOR Systems, a commercial firm in Austin, sends out FREE "Global Intelligence Updates" by e-mail. They are interesting, thoughtful and very provocative. For example, their Sept 8 weekly update forecast that Russia will reestablish her lost empire (Ukraine within a couple of years). That, in turn, they say, will make the newly expanded NATO's commitments untenable and threaten Germany, forcing that country to rearm, which will, in turn, threaten Germany's neighbors, especially France. Take a look. (jdmac) http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/

INDUSTRIAL ESPIONAGE / COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE There is a good article about the above subjects at the URL, below. Entitled, "Spies and spy catchers" by Louis Lavelle, 6Sep98. Among other things, it provides details of a recent industrial espionage case where Bristol-Myers Squibb was the target. It also explains the 1996 Economic Espionage Act (EEA) which made the theft of trade secrets a federal crime. (jdmac) http://www.bergen.com/news/sleuths199809068.htm

KILLING DÉTENTE: THE RIGHT ATTACKS THE CIA, by Anne Cahn (Penn State Press, 1998), 196pp. The thesis of this new book is that American hard liners overturned détente during the mid-1970's by, among things, re-establishing the "Committee on the Present Danger" and discrediting the CIA (which was viewed as too "left wing" at the time by many cold warriors). The "attack" on the CIA was by the means of the famous A Team / B Team exercise. Anne Cahn, who is [like me] a "scholar in residence" at American University, has a background in the arms control community and seems to view "conservatives" as evil and spending on defense or intelligence as total waste. Nevertheless, this is an interesting book with a good explanation of intelligence, the CIA, NIE's, the Committee on the Present Danger and the 1976 B Team exercise. (jdmac)

CIA FOLLOWED ORDERS IN CHILE. Twenty-five years ago, the Chilean military seized power from Salvador Allende, the elected Marxist President. The National Security Archive, which "traffics in" formerly classified documents (it's been likened to an "FOIA machine"), has just posted recently declassified US Govt documents on the subject. (NYT, 9/13/98) http://www.seas.gwu.edu/nsarchive/ The documents show the Nixon Administration was eager to drive Allende from office. Also, in the words of NY Times reporter, Tim Weiner:

...they illustrate a fact that was not well understood during the cold war: The CIA rarely acted as rogue elephant. When it plotted coups and shipped guns to murderous colonels, it did so on orders from the President.

>NAMEBASE ONLINE. This web site seems to have a decidedly leftist, anti-intelligence bias. Nevertheless, it's holdings are quite extensive and very searchable. A useful source. (jdmac) http://www.blythe.org/NameBase/index.html

IMAGERY ONLINE. Microsoft has put up what must be the world's biggest website, "TerraSever," which contains overhead imagery of much of the world. The imagery comes from both US Geological Survey and Russian reconnaissance satellite photos. It's doesn't have super resolution, but you can zoom in on your neighborhood, the building you work in, or maybe even your house. http://terraserver.microsoft.com/

ABA STANDING COMMITTEE ON LAW & NATIONAL SECURITY. If you live in the Washington, DC area and have an interest in national security and/or intelligence, this is a group you need to know about. This American Bar Assoc subgroup holds monthly breakfasts featuring outstanding speakers from the intelligence and national security arena. This month's breakfast, for example, featured Rep Porter Goss (R-Fla), who is Chairman of the House intelligence committee (he's also a CIA veteran and an AFIO member). Unfortunately, Rep Goss was called away by a family emergency, but Rep Bill McCollum (R-Fla), who is also on the committee, filled in and gave a very informative presentation. Among other things, Rep McCollum said that terrorism by Moslem fundamentalists extremists was a great threat. He was careful to say that fundamentalists represent a small minority of all Moslems and that these extremists, folks such as Osami bin Laden, represent only a tiny minority of all fundamentalists. So there's not many of them, nevertheless, he said, they represented a signifigant danger. He also discussed the problem of getting special salary authority for NSA to pay enough to get and keep highly trained scientists and engineers who are in great demand in the civilian economy. The ABA committee's annual conference is also recommended. This year it will be in Washington, Nov 12-13. So, if you are not already on this group's mailing list, I advise you to get on it: (doesn't cost you a thing)

ABA Standing Committee on Law and National Security
740 15th Street NW
Washington, DC 20005-1009
(202) 662-1035; fax: 662-1032
<natsecurity@abanet.org>

THE JMIC is planning a June 18, 1999 conference in Washington with the theme teaching intelligence and national security studies at the graduate and undergraduate level. The College is part of DIA and is certified and accredited to grant undergraduate and graduate degrees in strategic intelligence. The JMIC has issued a "call for papers" on the subject of teaching intelligence (abstracts due by Dec 31). The JMIC will provide travel funds for 4 chosen paper presenters and papers will be published in concert with the 1999 Conference. Those who teach or are interested in teaching about intelligence and national security should contact the conference organizer, LTC Kevin Johnson, at (202) 231-4173 or at <k-m-johnson@worldnet.att.net> to be placed on the conference mailing list.

JOURNAL OF "INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY." Meredith Hindley at American University in Washington, DC is spear-heading a effort to put together a comprehensive, worldwide list of courses on intelligence. Each entry in the list will consist of contact information for the person mounting the course and a short description of the course (approximately 75 words). The idea is to create a resource for people teaching intelligence and promote discussion and an exchange of ideas among historians, political scientists, and intelligence professionals. The list will be published in a future edition of the journal "Intelligence and National Security." There are also plans to put the list on a journal sponsored website, along with links to online resources for teaching intelligence. To have your class(es) included on the list, please contact Meredith Hindley at mhindley@iname.com.

Meredith Hindley
Department of History
American University
4400 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20016-8038
el: (202) 547-4221; <mhindley@iname.com>

Lists events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars. NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, <jdmac@erols.com>

SEPTEMBER 1998

Sept 24, Washington. Potomac Chapter of NMIA will kick of its fall season with at luncheon at the Bolling EM Club, 1130 hours. Speaker will be BGEN Arthur Sykes, Jr., USAF, Director, Customer Support Office, NIMA. Price is $12 for members who pay advance, $14 for non-members and members who pay at the door. 703.379.7177.

OCTOBER 1998:

Oct 16-17, Borden, Ontario. AFIO Midwest Chapter's Autumn Œ98 function, a working tour of the Canadian Military Intelligence and Security Camp. Angelo DiLiberti, (847) 931-4184, or Don Clark, (630) 834-2032, decaturvlp@aol.com.

Oct 23, Missoula, Montana. AFIO Grant Chapter meeting. Joe Bouchard will speak on native American warriors. reddog@bigsky.com

Oct 23, Washington. General Membership meeting of NIP, Naval Intelligence Professionals, at ONI Headquarters, Suitland, MD, with membership luncheon at the Bolling AFB NCO Club. Annual 1630 Dining-In for Naval intelligence officers that night at the Ft Myers O'Club.

Oct 23-24, Kennebunkport, Maine. Meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Nonatum Resort with speaker Peter Huchthausen, former Naval Attaché in Moscow and author of Hostile Waters. Peggy Adler, (860) 669-7706

Oct 28-30, Melbourne. Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers (AIPIO) to Conduct Intel'98, Meeting the Challenge: The Intelligence Advantage - Intelligence Solutions to Real World Problems. <http://www.aipio.asn.au/intel/intel98.html>

Oct 28-30, Brno, Czech Republic. AFCEA Europe Symposium and TechNet Exposition on "The New NATO." tel: 32(2)705 2731 / afcea@euronet.be / http://www.afcea.org

Oct 30 - Nov 1, Charlotte, NC. ISA/South conference at the Hilton at University Place in Charlotte, North Carolina. (704) 547-4536; fax (704) 547-3497; e-mail HICHERNO@email.uncc.edu.

NOVEMBER 1998:

Nov 5-7, Washington. AFIO National Symposium and Convention (unclassified), SYMPOSIUM starts at the Tyson's Marriott Hotel at 1pm with sessions on security intelligence and terrorism, followed by CONVENTION General membership meeting at 4 pm, then a RECEPTION and Awards BANQUET.

All day Friday at CIA Headquarters will be more Symposium sessions on current and future challenges with an emphasis on intelligence policy and technology winding up with a social hour at CIA, 5-6pm. Speakers include DCI, Hon. Portdr goss, Hon. Keith Hall, LGEN Kenneth Minihan and other eminent intelligence and technology leaders.

SATURDAY, 0830 Informal No-Host CONVENTION Breakfast Session with members of the AFIO Board of directors and Executive Officers (703) 790-0320, http://www.his.com/afio.

Nov 9, Washington. NMIA Defense Intelligence Status (DIS 98), Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642

Nov 10, Washington. NMIA/OPS Counterintelligence (CI 98) Symposium, Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642

Nov 11-12, Washington. PCIC Fall '98, Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community Symposium (intelligence job fair), Tyson's Corner Marriott. http://www.pcic.net

Nov 12-13, Washington. ABA Standing Committee on Law & National Security annual review conference. (202) 662-1035; <natsecurity@abanet.corg>

DECEMBER 1998:

Dec 7-8, Monterey, CA. PacIntel '98 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700

NEXT YEAR 1999

JAN (tbd), AFIO Winter Luncheon. Morning speaker (1030) plus luncheon speaker. (703)790-0320, http://www.his.com/afio.

JAN 19-21, Washington. Conference on "The Applications of Remote Sensing and GIS for Disaster Management." GWU Marvin Center

FEB 16-20, 1999, Washington. ISA Convention. This is the premier forum for intelligence scholars. http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/washington/

MAR 10-12, The Hague, Netherlands. EuroIntel '99 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700

MAR 21-25, 1999. Washington. National OPSEC Conference. 301.548.1018.

MAR 24-25, Washington. Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community (PCIC) Symposium (job fair), at Radisson Plaza Hotel at Mark Center, Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.pcic.net

MAY 24-26, Washington. OSS '99, http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700

JUNE 18, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) will sponsor a conference on "Teaching Intelligence in Colleges & Universities." Contact LTC Kevin Johnson. <k-m-johnson@worldnet.att.net>

- NOTE: AFIO MEMBERSHIP or associate membership is open to US citizens who subscribe to AFIO's principles and objectives - see AFIO's Homepage www.afio.com.

EVERY MEMBER RECRUIT (at least one) NEW MEMBER(S)! Recruit a friend or acquaintance - do your part for AFIO and its objectives. Get credit for sponsoring new members!

Let us know if you have a receptive prospect - we'll be pleased to send him/her a membership application. We need new members to keep AFIO healthy and on course - -

For back issues, updated periodically, see the AFIO Homepage www.afio.com.