AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 33

The WIN commentaries are produced by the AFIO WINs Editor and Executive Director Roy Jonkers. Contributions by others, notably by RADM Don Harvey and Dr. John Macartney, are clearly identified.

WIN re-transmission is not permitted without specific AFIO concurrence, except for individual single instances for recruiting a new AFIO member.

NOTE: AFIO LUNCHEON 14 SEPTEMBER, Fort Myers Officers Club, Arlington, Virginia

NOTE: AFIO SYMPOSIUM AND CONVENTION - 5, 6 and 7 NOVEMBER 1998, Marriott Hotel and CIA Headquarters, McLean Va.

SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS

- NORTH KOREA MISSILE TEST - On Sunday 30 August '98, at 12:05 pm EDT (noon in Korea), North Korea successfully test-fired a new two-stage Taepo Dong-1 ballistic missile with a dummy warhead to a range of about 1,000 miles into the Pacific. US intelligence had anticipated the launch and the monitoring system was deployed. US ships and surveillance aircraft tracked the flight as it dropped its first stage in the Sea of Japan and passed between Hokkaido and Honshu to splash down in the Pacific. Successful firing of a multi-stage missile indicates a slow but significant progression of technical capability. The North Korean missiles - like those of Pakistan, Iran etc. - are said to have very low accuracies, requiring chemical, biological or nuclear warheads for any effectiveness.

The previous North Korean test firing of a ballistic missile was in 1993, when a single stage No-Dong missile with a range of about 620 miles was launched. North Korea is known to be working on a 3,700 mile multi-stage missile, the Taepo Dong-2, scheduled for 2002.

North Korea is an exporter of missile technology. Intelligence sources were quoted as saying that Iranian technicians observed the firing, emphasizing their commercial relationship. Iran recently test fired a Shahab-3, a missile with a range of about 800 miles.

North Korea is currently negotiating with the US to lift economic sanctions. Both missile tests and exports may be bargaining chips on the negotiating table. (WP 31 Aug 98 p A17, WT 1 Sep 98 p. 1) (RoyJ)

- JCS REJECTS FINDING ON ICBM THREAT - Last July a high level blue-ribbon commission headed by former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld came to the conclusion that the US could suffer a ballistic missile attack with "little or no warning" in the next five years. The commission asserted that their "high level"review of relevant facts had greater authority than intelligence community estimates. Rumsfeld argued that existing and emerging ballistic missile powers would be increasingly able to hide their activities or deceive US intelligence.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff rejected Rumsfeld's findings, endorsing the estimates of US Intelligence agencies, which allegedly predict no credible rogue-state intercontinental ballistic threat to the United States for the next ten to fifteen years. During this period satellite surveillance and other intelligence collection means will expose development of an intercontinental ballistic missile by rogue nations, providing time to destroy the weapon or negotiate its dismantling. The Chiefs endorse a "three plus three" posture, postulating three years to make a decision to deploy, and three years to field a ballistic missile defense system that could protect the US against a limited launch.

General Shelton, Chairman of the JCS, wrote that the threat posed by "weapons of mass destruction" and unconventional or terrorist-style delivery means, is currently much greater, and requires first priority claim on available resources.

The North Korean missile test may increase political pressure to re-evaluate the US posture. In this connection, however, it should be noted that the US is engaged in joint development programs for anti-ballistic missile defense systems with Japan and Israel, the latter a very sizable program. (WPost 27Aug 98 p. 1, WTimes 27Aug p1, WP 31 Aug 98 page A17) (RoyJ)

- SIGINT SATELLITE HISTORY - On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) the security wraps were lifted from the nation's first electronic intelligence satellite, operating from 1960 - 1962. The Galactic Radiation and Background (GRAB) system had the capability to probe and record Soviet air defense radars. It was launched piggy-back on a Navy Transit 2A Navigation satellite, and announced as an experiment to measure solar radiation. The ELINT intercepts were communicated to ground stations, sent by courier to NRL for copying and forwarding to NSA and to SAC in Omaha, where the data was used to plan bomber routes in the event of war. The system was taken over by NRO in 1962.(Av Wk 22 Jun 98) (DonH)

- RUSSIA - Bargaining is proceeding among the Moscow rulers. The Duma is taking the opportunity to seek greater power. It is likely that Communists, who control the Duma, will become part of the next government. Their program, reversing a seven-year economic reform program based on mass-privatization and tight monetary policies, may be the basis for the next phase. The Communist program calls for Government management of the economy, protection of the banking system, and support for industry - policies requiring a mass infusion of rubles.

The Russian government has been unable to balance the interests of the Moscow robber capitalists and criminals, anti-western nationalists, and regional racketeers, with the demands for a stable and foreign-investment-friendly legal and tax system and broad social responsibility. A period of serious instability will have unpredictable outcomes, and carries with it an increased need for strong intelligence coverage and political actions to maintain control and security of Russian weapon stockpiles and missiles.

The decade-long effort to control the formerly Soviet stockpile has resulted in a fifty percent stockpile reduction, and warhead storage facilities have been reduced from 500 to 90 sites. The biggest problem is not the strategic nuclear arsenal, but control of the 4,000 "tactical" warheads for battlefield use, and the 1,200 tons of fissile material in numerous locations on Russian soil. (NYT 28 Aug p.1; WallStJ 28 Aug p. 4)) (RoyJ)

- IRAQ INSPECTIONS - Scott Ritter, a former USMC intelligence officer and the senior American weapons inspector on the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspection team, resigned on 26 August in protest against the Security Council's alleged lack of interest in continued "aggressive" inspections. Administration sources denied the allegations and stated that Ritter's proposed targets were needlessly provocative without potential gains. Not surprisingly, Iraq stated that Ritter resigned after Baghdad exposed his links with the CIA and the Mossad

It is possible to conjecture, based on apparent US policy developments with both Iraq and Lybia, that the US, having now identified the Moslem fundamentalists as the primary terrorist threat, may adopt a statesmanlike policy and alter its approach to states that are led by secular Arab regimes and leaders - i.e. Iraq and Lybia - that are hostile to fundamentalists. We may be on a course toward seeking political solutions with the enemies of our enemies. The recently announced initiative to resolve the impasse with Lybia over the trials of two suspects in the Panam 103 crash, also points this way.

Since the popular approach to US policy pursued by the media and national politicians - at least in public - is based on demonology, it will take some time to have the demons Sadam and Khadafy downgraded (relative to the new fundamentalist demon, bin Laden). The going will be heavy, as both media propaganda and politicians will play to domestic special interests and true believers - not a new phenomenon in US history. The current wave of criticism of the Secretary of State may be a manifestation of this difficulty. (NYT 28 Aug 98; WTimes 28 Aug p1; WallStJ 28 Aug p.1)) (RoyJ)

- US COUNTER-TERRORIST MISSILE STRIKE - The missile strike at the fundamentalist terrorist group associated with bin Laden is playing out in various ways affecting intelligence.

Pakistan announced that they recovered one cruise missile that went astray and are studying the technology. US defense officials were quoted as doubting that Pakistan had gained an intelligence windfall, suggesting that Tomahawk technology is already widely available. There is some public discussion over the utility of the technological information if exported to China and North Korea. Unidentified "experts" were quoted as saying that the Chinese could gain useful knowledge from the missile's airframe material, electronics, warhead, turbo-fan engine and guidance system.

The US attack on the Sudan facility has resulted in a loss of credibility abroad for the claim that the plant was associated with chemical warfare. The US maintains its position that the proof involves sensitive sources and methods, and that the plant was making a key chemical used in the manufacture of VX, a deadly nerve agent. The substance is alleged to be O-empta, difficult to isolate in the soil. International scepticism persists, partly because the US has eased off from three initial allegations: that there was no evidence the plant made pharmaceuticals; that the plant was government-run; and that bin-Laden had a financial interest in the plant.

To counter a Sudanese propaganda bonanza abroad, US intelligence released more information about the soil sample, stating that the agent who collected it had been polygraphed and vetted to make sure he followed the instructions of his handlers. Also revealed were connections between the owner of the Sudanese facility and Iraq's chemical warfare program, and an inference of an indirect connection to bin-Laden.

(Wpost 28 Aug p 13 and Sep 1, pg A14; WStJ 28 Aug 98 p. 8) (RoyJ)

AFIO MONOGRAPH #7 - "Intelligence: What It Is and How to Use It" was updated by the author, Dr. John Macartney in 1997. About 40 pages long, it has been widely accepted as a "primer" and used at colleges ranging from the Service Academies to the JFK School at Harvard. Contact <jdmac@syr.edu> (RJ)

14 September - AFIO LUNCHEON, Fort Myers Officers Club, Arlington Virginia

11 - 12 noon - Dr. Hamilton Merritt, Nobel Prize Nominee: TRAGIC MOUNTAINS - THE SECRET WAR IN LAOS

1 - 2 p.m. - Major General (USA ret) Jack Singlaub & SOG Crew: OPERATION TAILWIND.

Luncheon Chairman: Mr. Theodore Shackley

REGISTER NOW! Send check for $26 (members and guests) or $29 (non-members) to AFIO 6723 Whittier Ave, ste 303A, McLean Va 22101-4533.

You are urged to attend! An exceptional cast of speakers has been contacted and will participate. Costs are reasonable. There will be Symposium and Convention sessions. Non members are welcome to the Symposium sessions - and to the Convention sessions as well.

The sessions on Thursday afternoon are at the Tysons Corner Marriott, followed by a reception and a banquet.

On Friday symposium sessions will be conducted at CIA Headquarters.

On Saturday morning there will be a no-host Convention breakfast with members of the Board of Directors and Officers at the Marriott.

5 November - at Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel, Vienna, Va.

13:00 - 15:30 - Symposium sessions on Terrorism, Executive Kidnapping and Russian Organized Crime

15:30 - 1730 AFIO Convention General Membership Meeting

Chairman: Bill Kvetkas, AFIO Chairman of the Board. Presentations by AFIO President Peter Earnest and Executive Director Roy Jonkers on the status of the Association and near-term program objectives.

1830 - 2130 Reception and AFIO Awards Banquet

Dress - coat and tie.

Chairman: AFIO President Peter Earnest.

6 November 0800 - 1800 - at CIA HEADQUARTERS, McLean, Va., SYMPOSIUM Sessions 0800 - 1700, followed by social hour.

0800 - 0900 DCI - the Future of US Intelligence

0900 - 1000 HPSCI Chairman - Congressional Perspective on the Future of Intelligence

1100 - 1145 - Director National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) - the Future of US Overhead Reconnaissance Intelligence

1130 - 1230 - Director Sandia Laboratories - future intelligence technologies

1400 - 1500 - Director Financial Crime Center (FINCEN) - money laundering and international financial crime networks

1515 - 1600 - Director National Security Agency (NSA) - cyber war

1600 - 1700 - Director Los Alamos National Laboratories -

1700 - 1800 - President's Social Hour. DCI invited to attend.

Saturday 7 November 98 - 0830 - Informal No-Host Convention Breakfast Session with members of the AFIO Board of directors and Executive Officers

Register Early! Let us know if you intend to attend - it helps us with planning! Bring your spouse to the Banquet - the Tysons Corner shopping malls are next door.

FEES:

Convention and Symposium package price $225 ( including Banquet, Friday lunch and Social Hour).
Alternative 1 - Symposium sessions only (Thur/Friday) only - $145.
Alternative 2 - Convention sessions only (Thursday), including Banquet - $100.

HOTEL - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel - 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna Va - 703 734 3200 or worldwide reservation 1 800 228 9290. Ask for weekend rate. No bloc of rooms has been set aside or reserved. RESERVE early! The front-desk rate quoted to us was $ 84 per night.

NOTE: The AFIO luncheon originally scheduled for 7 December 98 has been postponed until January 1999. The Board meeting on 7 December is also postponed.

- NORTHEAST FLORIDA CHAPTER MEETING - The newly emerging AFIO Northeast Florida Chapter will hold its first organizational Dinner Meeting on Friday 11 September 1998 at the Holiday Inn, Palatka, at 6:00 pm.

The after-dinner speaker will be Brigadier General William A. Webb (USAF (ret), who was the Senior Defense Representative in Beijing from 1979 - 1982. After retirement he served as President of the United Technologies International Business Corporation , and resided in Beijing from 1986 until 1992. BGEN Webb will speak on China and its role as an international power. For reservations or information, contact Col Barney Barco (352) 475 2351, or email <bmbarco@juno.com.

TAPS - Richard A. Sampson, Vice President of AFIO's San Diego Chapter, died 30 July 1998 at the age of 71. After service in the Navy in the 1940's and later as an Army Reserve officer, he served with distinction in the Central Intelligence Agency's Office of Security for 25 years, retiring in 1976. After two further decades in private industry, he retired again as Director of Security for GDE Systems Inc., but remained active as Adjunct Professor at Webster University's San Diego campus, and as AFIO Chapter VP. We bid farewell to a valued colleague. (ref. Darryl Thibault, San Diego Chapter President 619 233 0020)

TRAVEL INTELLIGENCE - Although the chances of being caught up in a terrorist attack are miniscule, and the hysteria which follows any terrorist incident is temporarily overblown by political/bureacratic excess and media hype, there is an increased probability of an incident somewhere in the world in retaliation for the US missile strikes.

The prudent will want to check conditions overseas, particularly in exotic travel destinations.
Check the State Department <http://travel.state.gov/travel_warnings.html> This site is updated daily.
Australia's Consular Travel Advice < www.dfat.gov.au/consular/advice>
Canadian travel information < www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/graphics/cosmos/cntry_e.htm>
British travel advice <www.fco.gov.uk>
Pinkerton Global Intelligence Services <www.pinkertons.com/pgis> provides security assessments of 200-plus countries
Air Security International <www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/general.asp> Hot Spots section provides general danger messages.
Fielding's Danger Finder <www.fieldingtravel.com/df/index.htm> includes postings by recent travellers.
(USA Today21 Aug 98 page 2D) (RJ)

-CHAPTER MEMBERSHIP INCENTIVE - The GRANT Chapter, Missoula, Montana, is moving out with special incentives to recruit new members. The Chapter will waive Chapter membership dues for one year for new members of AFIO. Current and prospective AFIO members in Montana are urged to join this dynamic chapter and participate in its activities.

On 25 SEPTEMBER Richard Dixon will address the group on CHURCHIL's involvement in intelligence in WW II. For the 23 OCTOBER meeting, Joe Bouchard will speak on Native American WARRIORS.

Contact President Charlie Crookshanks <reddog@bigsky.net>.

- PCIC EXPO - Career Development for Intelligence Professionals - will be held 11-12 November, 1998, Tysons Corner Marriott, 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna, Va. Included will be workshops, seminars and exhibits, along with Government and Industry talent scouts. The last one was a bellringer - outstanding! AFIO endorsed. Check <pcic@pcic.net> or call Lori Tugman at 703 379 8400 for attendance, exhibiting or advertising.

SPECIAL INCENTIVE - AFIO members wishing to purchase commercial exhibit space will receive a special discount.

- NMIA Symposia - Defense Intelligence Status '98 - will be conducted on 9 November, and Counterintelligence'98 - on 10 November. Both will be held at the Tysons Corner Marriott in Northern Virginia. Check the NMIA Web page at <http:/www.nmia.org> for details.

- TERRORISM TODAY SYMPOSIUM - Cleveland, Ohio, Wednesday 16 September 98 - AFIO member John Lengel, retired CI officer, will participate and speak at a one-day 0800-1600 symposium conducted by the Greater Cleveland Safety Council and the Safety Sciences Institute, with participation by local FBI speakers, at the Cleveland Airport Marriott. For registration info, tel 216 621 0059; fax 216 621 0062.(RJ)

- JOB AVAILABLE - - ANSER, a Public Service Research Institute, has an opening for a mid-level security analyst to develop security policy documents and cost models. BA degree required. Must be proficient on PC computer platforms and MS Windows applications. Contact <jobs@anser.org>. Reference AFIO.

- JOB WANTED - Individual with background as computer programmer, software tester, information technical writer, trainer and web author, current SCI clearances, is looking for full-time career opportunity in development of intelligence products and systems. Contact AFIO <afio@afio.com> for referral.

Recruit a friend or acquaintance - do your part for AFIO and its objectives. Get credit for sponsoring new members!

Let us know if you have a receptive prospect - we'll be pleased to send him/her a membership application. We need new members to keep AFIO healthy and on course --