AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 31

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.

See the AFIO Homepage <www.afio.com> for back issues.

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SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS

EAST AFRICA BOMBINGS - Press reports indicate that US intelligence had received several reports prior to the bombing - out of thousands of reports of possible threats received each month - that may turn out to have some relevance to the terrorist action.

One report indicated a sudden departure of Osama bin Laden's deputies from hideouts in Afghanistan; a second consisted of a warning of action against American installations in retaliation for the Jihad fighters apprehended and extradited by Albania (at US request) to Egypt - which resulted in increased security measures for the US Embassy in Cairo by both US and Egyptian authorities; and the third was a warning passed by the Israelis to the US in Kenya, but with an Israeli caveat to 'take the information with a grain of salt.' The worldwide intelligence efforts to apprehend the culprits continue in full swing.

President Clinton has met with his top security advisors to discuss ways in which the US can best defend US installations around the world, and how to take a more offensive strategy against terrorism.

The most recent anti-terrrorist law passed by Congress was in 1996 in the aftermath of the Oklahoma City bombing, calling for a 10-year sentence for anyone convicted of providing funding, weapons, or safe haven to terrorists. Thirty foreign terrorist groups have been identified by the State Department as falling under the law.

Some experts have called for a US policy of assassinating suspected terrorists or organizational leaders. US Executive Order 12333 bans assassinations. It is said to be unlikely to change. An Israeli counter-terrorism expert has noted that assassinations often "create a boomerang effect and the terrorists hit you back, often much harder." It may be noted, however, that US has mounted retaliatory air bombing raids, such as those on Iraq and Lybia, that may be considered tantamount to assasination or bombing counter-terrorism.

Political terrorism (as distinguished from criminal and psychotic terrorism) is generally a tool of desperation by states or groups that are militarily and economically weak but ideologically, religously or nationalistically fanatic. Since one man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter, there is little international law on the subject. The only international agreements are those prohibing skyjacking" and action against "protected persons" (diplomats).

Aside from political and policy measures, the challenges for the US are to improve intelligence coordination with other nations, to further enhance American counter-terrorist intelligence operations ( both through technology and human resources), and to focus and refine real-time analysis. We look forward to discussions with the intelligence leadership on this topic at the AFIO Symposium at CIA in November. (ref Phil Inq 13 Aug 98 pg A17) (RJ)

RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITE DESTROYED - On 12 August an Air force Titan 4A rocket with an alleged NRO reconnaissance satellite payloadwas launched, then suddenly blew up 20,000 feet above the Atlantic. Failures like these occur from time to time. The Air force is investigating the cause of the accident and will attempt to retrieve the debris in shallow waters. The last accident with a Titan 4A was five years ago, in August 1993.

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) speculated that the payload was a billion dollar Advanced Vortex signals intelligence satellite. This system is said to deploy a huge antenna with a diameter of more than 300 feet in space, allegedly to intercept broadcast transmissions from radios, cell phones, radars and other electronic communications systems. A government official was quoted as saying that it would take a few years to build a replacement - "they are all handcrafted."

The FAS subscribes to the notion that publication of technical characteristics of American reconnaissance and other intelligence capabilities is in the public interest, if not in the nation's. Aside from pointing up the leakage in much of our secrecy protection - if you know where to look - the FAS proposition is dubious at best. (WP, 13 Aug pg A2; WallSt J 13 Aug98 pA16) (RJ)

CINCSPACE CALLS FOR SATELLITE DEFENSES - Outgoing commander-in-chief of US Space Command (CINCSPACE) General Howell M. Estes, USAF, recently called for national space policies to guide US military responses to potential attacks on our space platforms. We need, said the general, special sensors on new US spacecraft, enabling rapid detection of attack.

General Estes noted that if one or more of our systems fail, we have no way of knowing 'for sure' what happened - whether it received an electromagnetic pulse from deep space, was lased, was killed by a kinetic-kill device - or died from fatigue. "We can only make educated guesses." He called for improvements in command and control, including integration of USAF space surveillance sensors, and closer links with the NRO as well as with NASA and the commercial space sector. A proposal for co-locating NRO and US Space Command operations centers is under consideration.

US protective measures and responses were too sensitive to be discussed in the interview, but the military has the responsibility for space control. General Estes advocated creating of a National Space Council to focus on policy guidelines, for space is a source of national power. The total worldwide value of space-based systems, including their operations and services they provide, will be over $120 billion by the year 2000. (Av Wk & Space Tech, 10 Aug 98) (RJ)

DOE TIGHTENING SECURITY AT LABS - the Department of Energy has instituted a program of improving security at its 30 national laboratories. A GAO report published last year was highly critical of systemic laxities in security procedures at three big-time labs - Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia. The GAO critique cited: failures to conduct requisite background checks of many foreign visitors; routine exemptions from established security procedures; poorly trained US hosts for foreign visitors; failure to limit foreign exposure to controlled areas; and other shortcomings.

More than 4,000 visitors from China, most of them military officers or scientists, have been hosted by DOE's nuclear labs since 1994. The only nation with more visitors was Russia, with whom the US conducts a variety of nuclear cooperative safeguard and stockpile programs. Between 1994 and 1996, over 800 Indian nationals and 30 Pakistanis visited the three labs. After the Indian and pakistani nuclear tests, visits from nationals of these two countries were suspended.

The DoE security program creates two new offices to coordinate and direct security at the labs. An Office of Intelligence will be responsible for identifying the US technologies and technical data that are likely to be targeted by foreign spies; and an Office of Counterintelligence, to be headed by an FBI veteran, will play its role to maintain security. (Def Nws 8-14Jun98, p3; Chic Trib 21 Jun 98 p1) (Harvey)

ISRAELI ESPIONAGE IN RUSSIA - The Omsk-Region directorate of the Federal Security Service (FSB) in Siberia publicized a successful counterintelligence operation at the Transmash defense plant, exposing a spy network that included the head of the design bureau, Aleksandr Sakov. The Omsk plant is engaged in designing the T-80U tank, the "Black Eagle - the fighting machine for the 21st century."

The Israeli agent handler was identified as the local manager of NATIV, the Israeli 'Office for Liaison with Jews in the CIS', who reportedly ran a ring of some twenty informants. Israeli sources did not comment on the allegation. Last March it was reported that the heads of Israel's Mossad and Shin Bet agencies had called for the closing of NATIV, saying it had squandered public funds and was waging a turf war with intelligence organizations. A Israeli Government watchdog committee was then appointed to monitor NATIV's activities.(Tel Aviv Ha'arets/English version, 11 Aug 98; RTV, Moscow television 2025 GMT, 11 Aug 98) (RJ)

SECTION II - BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS

-HEADQUARTERS GERMANY, by Klaus Eichner and Andreas Dobbert, 381 pages, DM24.80; and VERSCHLUSSSACHE BND, by Udo Ulfkotte, Loehler &Amelang, DM 48. These two books were reviewed in the Economist. The first book, by two former East German intelligence analysts, questions the value of expensive intelligence bureaucracies. Both books decry the amount of spying on friendly nations that is going on. Ulkotte notes with amusement that Britain's electronic eavesdropping service recently advertised on the Internet for speakers of German - a language spoken in countries on which Britain, officially at least, does not spy.

The books also posit that there is too much intelligence product with too little marginal worth. In this respect a recent British initiative to set up an "internal market" to evaluate the value of intelligence products by overseas stations is of some interest. Each station's annual cost is judged against how much the in-house "customers" are willing to pay for its information in notional accounting units.

Other questions addressed by the authors include the problems of official-versus- non-official cover, and "offensive and defensive" technologies for spying. The authors may have a "sour grapes" perspective, but the bottomline pursued - the marginal utility of spying - needs to be examined from time to time, if for no other reason than to maintain focus and relate means to ends. It eventually resolves itself to questions of political, economic and security gains versus risk, and effective risk management. (Econ. 28Mar 98, p 82) (RJ)

CIA AND THE VIETNAM POLICYMAKERS: THREE EPISODES 1962-1968, by Dr. Harold Ford, released by the CIA History Staff at the Center for the Study of Intelligence. The study shows how the pessimistic (and often accurate) assessments of mid-level CIA analysts were softened or completely obscured in deference to the pre-conceived views of the situation of key Administration officials. The book is available from NTIS (703) 605 6000 or at <http://www.odci.gov.csi>.(RJ)

AFIO MONOGRAPH #7 - "Intelligence: What It Is and How to Use It" was updated by the author, Dr. John Macartney in 1997. About 40 pages long, it has been widely accepted as a "primer" and used at colleges ranging from the Service Academies to the JFK School at Harvard. Contact <jdmac@syr.edu> (RJ)

- UK NATIONAL ARCHIVES CD ROM ON M.I.5 - The first British Intelligence records ever to be released to the British public, the Public Record Office of the National Archives of Britain has released a CD ROM with documents covering the period 1909 - 1919, including M.I.5's involvement in setting up the American "Black Chamber." Telephone Paul Sinnott at 44 181 392 5271 or fax 5266. I tried the email and it was refused. (RJ)

- CORPORATE GRAY ONLINE is a free military to civilian career transition guide at <http://www.bluetogray.com> or <http://www.greentogray.com>. The sites includes job opportunities, and information for making informed career decisions.(RJ)

- BAY OF PIGS DOCUMENTS RELEASED BY CIA - In June CIA released over 3,000 pages of documents related to the Bay of Pigs operation. The documents are available on the Agency's internet site at <http://www.foia.ucia.gov>

SECTION III CALENDAR

14 September - AFIO LUNCHEON, Fort Myers Officers Club, Arlington Virginia
1030 - 1400. Speakers: Major General (USA ret) Jack Singlaub (Operation Tailwind) and Dr. Hamilton Merritt, Nobel Prize Nominee (Tragic Mountains -- The War in Laos). Luncheon Chairman: Mr. Theodore Shackley. Registration: AFIO members $26, Non-members $29. Send check with name and address to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean VA 22101-4533

6 November - Symposium sessions - at CIA HEADQUARTERS
6 November - Symposium end social session - at CIA

NEW DATE - NOTE THE CHANGE!!!

7 December - NOTE: The AFIO luncheon originally scheduled for 7 December 98 has been postponed until January 1999. The Board meeting on 7 December is also postponed until January.

SECTION IV - BULLETIN BOARD

AFIO MEDIA INPUTS - AFIO has responded to the media for comment on crises in recent weeks and days. Particular mention is made of the contributions by Board member Sam Halpern in telephone commentaries to national press representatives; by AFIO President Peter Earnest for his excellent television interview with McNeil Lehrer Public Television; and to Dave Whipple for his insightful commentaries on the East African terrorist bombing on BBC television Responsiveness to the media is an important means to achieve AFIO's objectives, and our thanks go to all AFIO members who participated around the country in helping to bring common sense and insight into the public discussions on intelligence.

- NEW CHAPTER - The newly organized AFIO Northeast Florida Chapter will hold its first organizational Dinner Meeting on Friday 11 September 1998 at the holiday Inn, Palatka, at 6:00 pm. For reservations or information, contact Col Barney Barco (352) 475 2351, or email <bmbarco@juno.com.

- GRANT Chapter, Missoula, Montana, will waive Chapter membership dues for one year for new members of AFIO. At the recent 26 July meeting, two new members were introduced, and heard John Arneson speak about Special Forces at nearby Fort Lewis. On 25 SEPTEMBER Richard Dixon will address the group on Churchil's involvement in intelligence in WW II. For the 23 OCTOBER meeting, Joe Bouchard will speak on Native American Warriors.

Current and prospective AFIO members in Montana are urged to join this dynamic chapter and participate in its activities. Contact President Charlie Crookshanks <reddog@bigsky.net>.

- ACADEMIC RESEARCH SUPPORT NEEDED - AFIO member Prof. Peter Kassebaum requests factual information on the late Swedish industrialist Axel Leonard Wenner-Gren, who allegedly was a go-between for the Nazis and Edward VIII while they both sat out the war in the West Indies, and who died in 1961. Contact <pkasseba@marin.cc.ca.us>

- JOB AVAILABLE - -ANSER, a Public Service Research Institute, has an opening for a mid-level security analyst to develop security policy documents and cost models. BA degree required. Must be proficient on PC computer platforms and MS Windows applications. Contact <jobs@anser.org>. Reference AFIO.

- JOB WANTED - Individual with background as computer programmer, software tester, information technical writer, trainer and web author, current SCI clearances, is looking for full-time career opportunity in development of intelligence products and systems. Contact AFIO <afio@afio.com> for referral.

- PCIC EXPO - Career Development for Intelligence Professionals - will be held 11-12 November, 1998, Tysons Corner Marriott, 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna, Va. Included will be workshops, seminars and exhibits, along with Government and Industry talent scouts. The last one was a bellringer - outstanding! AFIO endorsed. Check <pcic@pcic.net> or call Lori Tugman at 703 379 8400 for attendance, exhibiting or advertising.

- COLLEGE STUDENTS INTERESTED IN INTELLIGENCE - Christopher Harrington has constructed a Web page for college students interested in intelligence-related careers: <http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/farren>