AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue
22
15 June 1998
AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to
enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new
members. We need new members!
WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations
of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members.
WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of
the WIN Editor.
AFIO SPECIAL Luncheon - 21 July 1998 - 12:30 - 2:30 a
Fort George G.Meade, Maryland, O'Club.
Tour of National Cryptologic Museum follows.
Send check for $22 (AFIO members and guests), or $29 (others) to
AFIO.
(703) 790-0320
WIN re-transmission is not permitted without specific concurrence
of the WIN Editor, Roy Jonkers, (or stand-in, John Macartney,
jdmac@syr.edu).
NOTE: Roy Jonkers is off on his annual walking vacation in Europe
and I will (try to) carry on with WINs until his return. --John
Macartney, jdmac@syr.edu
NO E-MAIL TO AFIO PLEASE!!! While Roy Jonkers is on vacation,
AFIO will not be reading e-mail. If you need to communicate with the
AFIO office, call them at (703) 790-0320)
SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES &
BRIEFS
INDIA FAILURE ATTRIBUTED TO "MIRROR IMAGING" & DECEPTION. The
Jeremiah Report and statements from DCI George Tenet and others
attribute the Intelligence Community's failure to warn of the
impending Indian nuclear tests last month to "mirror imaging." That
is, intelligence analysts and policymakers alike shared a mind-set
that assumed that India would not test -- this despite the fact that
the BJP had declared during the Jan-March election campaign that if
elected they would "go nuclear." According to reports, the analysts
were mistakenly attributing to the Indians the AMERICAN view that (1)
going nuclear would be bad, and/or (2) campaign promises can be taken
with a grain of salt. In this regard, analysts are now worrying
about another BJP campaign promise: to retake Kashmir by military
force if necessary or, at least, to engage in "hot pursuit" of
Kashmiri insurgents into Pakistan. Admiral Jeremiah also gave equal
weight to successful Indian concealment and deception as another
cause of the failure.
Because of the mirror imaging and reassurances by Indian govt
officials that they would not test, American analysts got it wrong.
One result of that was that a relatively low priority was given to
collecting against nuke test "indicators." The test range, according
to press reports, was being imaged only every 3 days.
Meanwhile, DCI Tenet has stated, "We did not get it right.
Period."But what has not come out in the media are reports of what
exactly the intelligence community did tell its policymaking
customers. Obviously, no "tactical" warning was given. That is,
policymakers were not told that a test was imminent. But we do not
know about "strategic warning," a longer range estimate that testing
was or was not likely. We can infer, however, that since the Indian
test range was given a relatively low collection priority (imaged
every 3 days), that the IC had not issued strategic warning.
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554447041-2de
HIDING FROM SATELLITES. One of the ways India evaded detection of
its test preparations, of course, was by knowing exactly when a US
spy satellite was due overhead and temporarily stopping work until it
passed by. For a good article on that technique see: http://online.guardian.co.uk/pic.html
"INTERNATIONALIZATION" OF US INTELLIGENCE. UNSCOM head Richard
Butler gave two days of lengthy briefings to the UN Security Council
which were illustrated, according to press reports, with US
intelligence imagery and other "sensitive intelligence information."
All this was to make the case that Iraq was still not complying with
the UN arms inspection regime. It is also a good example of what is
being called the "internationalization" of US intelligence. That is,
the US Intelligence Community is more and more serving consumers at
the UN, the IAEA, SFOR and other intergovernmental organizations.
MICRO RECCE. We've all heard about how the Predator and other
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV's) are providing remarkable IMINT
support in Bosnia and elsewhere. Well, the next thing seems to be
Micro Aerial Vehicles (MAV's) which will be tiny reconnaissance UAV's
-- only 5 or 6 inches in length but with real time video
capabilities. Stealthy and small enough that an infantryman could
carry them in his back pack. I'm not making this up -- see story in
Aviation Week. <http://www.aviationweek.com/aviation/avi_stor.htm>
CHINA MISSILE TECHNOLOGY HEARINGS. Congress has been holding
hearings on the latest of charges against President Clinton (that his
administration has been allowing missile technology to be leaked to
China -- possibly as a repayment of campaign contributions.) Well,
the most interesting thing I have seen that came out of these
hearings was testimony last week to the Senate intelligence committee
by Gordon Oehler, former Director of the CIA's Nonproliferation
Center. Oehler said, essentially, that despite overwhelming evidence
that China had transferred M-11 missile technology and the unanimous
agreement of the entire US intelligence community on the subject, the
Clinton Administration said "the evidence wasn't good enough." Why?
Because if the missile transfer was confirmed, that is acknowledged
by Clinton Administration, they would have been required by law to
impose sanctions on China -- sanctions that would disrupt the
US-China relationship and cost US business and jobs. What evidence
was ignored? Well, we don't know exactly, but apparently there was
imagery of M-11 packing cases being delivered to a Pakistani military
base. There may also have been some corroborating HUMINT and SIGINT.
What the US Intelligence Community did not have was imagery of the
missiles themselves -- just their boxes. That allowed Clinton
Administration policymakers to maintain they still didn't know for
sure what was inside the M-11 crates.
This is interesting to me because it is a familiar story of how
policymakers often find intelligence reports "inconvenient" because
the reports conflict with preferred policy options. Congress has
exacerbated this matter in recent years by passing a number of laws
that require the President to "certify," for example, that Mexico is
doing its part in the drug war, or Pakistan doesn't have nukes, or
China is not shipping missile and nuclear technology abroad, and so
on. When it comes time for the President to make those
certifications, he is often embarrassed by intelligence assessments
that contradict his preferred policy. And it isn't just this
President. Lyndon Johnson complained bitterly about this problem,
which also bedeviled others including Reagan and Bush. Washington
Post, 6/12, pA20. Washington Times, 6/12, pA1.
MORE FROM HEARINGS. In another story generated by these hearings,
Walter Pincus of the Washington Post writes that China's launches of
American commercial satellites as well as the Chinese military's
(illegal) use of American communication satellites helped US
intelligence. According to Pincus, US intelligence were able to
learn about Chinese ICBM's from their Long March launch rockets.
Also, he wrote, the use of US commercial communication satellites by
the Chinese military made it easier for NSA to intercept or jam their
communications. Maybe. Another, perhaps more relevant issue was
mentioned in the article. According to Pincus, the US has
intelligence sharing arrangements with China that allow among other
things US monitoring posts on Chinese soil that collect against
Russia and perhaps other 3rd countries. In order to protect that
valuable intelligence relationship, a special amendment was attached
to the 1995 Intelligence Authorization bill (and renewed in 1996
& 1997) which gave the President authority to waive sanctions on
a foreign government if the President believed the sanctions would
"compromise an ongoing criminal investigation or an intelligence
source or method." Although not mentioned in the law, Pincus's
"sources" said China is the reason for the provision. Washington
Post, 6/13, pA18.
SECTION II - BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS & OTHER
SOURCES
HAROLD FORD BOOK. The CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence
(CSI) has just published a new book by AFIO member and former senior
CIA officer, Harold Ford. The book, "CIA and the Vietnam
Policymakers: Three Episodes 1962-1968." Dr Ford, one of the most
respected of CIA analysts, knows his subject. He was a Naval officer
in WW2, earned a PhD from the University of Chicago and joined the
Agency in 1950. Later, was a postdoctoral scholar at St Antony's
College, Oxford. At the Agency he served on various Vietnam working
groups, was staff chief of the Office of National Estimates and also
served abroad as a Chief of Station. After leaving the CIA, Ford
served five years with the Church Committee and the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence. In 1980, he rejoined the CIA and helped
form the new National Intelligence Council, serving as Acting
Chairman before his retirement in 1986. The study shows how the
pessimistic (and most times accurate) assessments of mid-level CIA
analysts were softened at best and completely obscured at worst in
deference to the preconceived views of the situation as seen by key
Administration officials.
This looks to be an important book -- covering such intelligence
controversies as the Sam Adams OB dispute, the 1968 Tet offensive,
long range estimates about Vietnam, and so on. Rueters says "CIA
study blasts own Vietnam-era performance" by slanting views to suit
policymakers (see below). <http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2554553261-970>.
The book is available for purchase from the National Technical
Information Service (1-800-553-6847) and should be posted on CSI's
web site in the near future (but it's not there yet). <http://www.odci.gov/csi/>
CIA RELEASES DOCUMENTS ON "BAY OF PIGS" OPERATION. On June 4, the
CIA announced the declassification and release of over 3,200 pages of
Agency documents related to the "Bay of Pigs" operation. This
historically relevant material was transferred to the National
Archives and Records Administration and is part of an ongoing effort
over the past five years to make available for public and scholarly
review important records of intelligence information pertaining to
high-profile events. This latest release includes the following
documents: CIA Inspector General's assessment of the Bay of Pigs
operation and the Directorate of Plans' response (previously released
as part of a 1988 FOIA request); the CIA History Staff's Studies in
intelligence article entitled "The CIA's Internal Probe of the Bay of
Pigs Affair;" "Record of the Paramilitary Action Against the Castro
Government of Cuba - 17 March 1960 to May 1961;" CIA Clandestine
Services History Monograph based on the after-action report by
Colonel Jack Hawkins; finished intelligence on developments in Cuba
to include NIEs, Special Estimates, and relevant current
publications; briefing notes for the DCI prepared by the CIA staff
prior to NSC meetings; training records of the 2506th Brigade (in
Spanish); and graphics (to include 560 photographs and six diagrams
related to the Brigade's training).
The documents are available to individual requesters in hard copy
and CD-ROM from the College Park facility of the National Archives.
The documents are also available on the Agency's internet site at
http://www.foia.ucia.gov.
URL'S FOR FY 1999 INTELLIGENCE AUTHORIZATION BILL REPORTS. In the
last WIN, I gave you the URL for the House intelligence committee
report: <http://jya.com/sr105-185.txt>
Here's the Senate counterpart: <http://jya.com/hr105-508.txt>
SECTION IV - "HEADS UP" LIST
Events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars.
NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that
should be added to the expanded monthly list, PLEASE ADVISE John
Macartney, <jdmac@syr.edu>
JUNE 1998:
JUNE 18. Potomac Chapter NMIA luncheon at the Bolling AFB
Enlisted Club. Guest speaker at the noon luncheon will be Professor
Daniel T. Kuehl, Chairman of the Information Operations Department at
the National Defense University, where he teaches strategic uses of
the Internet and information warfare strategy. While on active duty
with the US Air Force, Dr. Kuehl helped develop the INSTANT THUNDER
plan for the 1991 air campaign against Iraq. He also authored the
"Air Campaign" chapter in DoD's Final Report to Congress on the
Persian Gulf War.; Speaker at the morning program, starting at 1030,
will be Chapter President and President of INTAC (security thinktank)
Richard F. Forno. He will offer his observations on "The Asymmetric
Information Warfare Environment" and some of the challenges facing
the intelligence community on this issue. For reservations call (703)
379-7177.
JUNE 17-19 in Washington. Aviation Week "Space Technology and
Business" conference and exhibition. http://www.aviationweek.com/conferences/html/space98.htm
JUNE 25, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College
will host an academic conference at the DIAC building on Bolling AFB.
Contact LCDR Pete Clanton (202) 231-8538, fax (202) 231-2171, or
e-mail AFjmic@dia.osis.gov.
JUNE 26-27, Chicago. AFIO Midwest Chapter's 8th Intelligence
Seminar at Great Lakes Naval Station, Chicago. Contact Angelo
DiLiberti at (847) 931-4184, or Don Clark (630) 834-2032, or
diaboliq@home.com.
JULY 1998
JULY 1. New deadline for 1999 ISA paper and panel proposals.
http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/washington/ Also, you should info Jim
Wirtz who is the Intelligence Program Chair at the Dept of National
Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, 408-656-3483;
jwirtz@nps.navy.mil.
JULY 10-11, Vermont. AFIO New England Chapter at the Bromley
Lodge with speaker Joseph Goulden. Peggy Adler, (860) 669-7706.
JULY 15-19, Washington, DC. Marine Corps Intelligence Association
Convention. Includes a ceremony at the Iwo Jima Memorial, trips to
USMC intelligence facility at Quantico and the USMC Museum at the
Navy Yard, and the evening retreat ceremony at the Marine Corps
barracks. Distinguished speakers include the DCI, the Marine Corps
Commandant, Gen Charles Krulak, CINCSOUTH, and former DIA director
LtGen Clapper. Contact MGySgt John Asbery, USMC (Ret), Tel: (703)
494-3894; http://www.erols.com/mgysgt/
JULY 21, Washington. AFIO Special Luncheon, Ft Meade, Maryland,
O'Club, 12:30 - 2:30, with presentation by Jack Ingram (Curator &
Historian, National Cryptologic Museum), and special TOUR of the
Museum. Send check for $22 (AFIO members and guests), or $29 (others)
to AFIO. (703) 790-0320.
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