AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 19

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.

WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage

SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
SECTION III - Member's Missives
SECTION IV - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services

SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS

- INDIA NUKES INTELLIGENCE FAILURE? - Washington has been in an uproar over India's surprise nuclear tests at their facility near Pokharan on May 11 & 12 with much finger pointing at the CIA. Those that see an "intelligence failure" are evidently operating under the assumption that the US Intelligence Community can know everything that is going to happen anywhere in the world. A rather impossible expectation.

While it may be difficult to keep a secret from US intelligence, it certainly isn't impossible. In this case, the Indian government was trying very hard, and succeeded, in keeping their secret. Is that so surprising? I suppose we could spend another $10 or $20 billion on intelligence, but even if we did, I don't believe we could expect them to know everything. It's an impossibility....

Also, not much has really changed. We've known for over two decades that India possessed nuclear weapons. Their first test was 24 years ago. Likewise, we know that Pakistan, Israel and perhaps North Korea also have nukes. And South Africa once had nukes. We know all that. The only thing that's new, is that India is now announcing they have the nukes that the world has known about since 1974.

Another thing. The finger pointers have blamed the CIA, which shows how little they know about the US Intelligence Community. While all the analytical organizations (CIA, DIA, INR) should be watching something like this, nuclear matters are the particular responsibility of the Energy Department's intelligence shop ˜ about 80 analysts who are, for the most part, nuclear physicists, and whose specific job is to worry about nuclear proliferation.

Of note on this matter, both The Washington Post and the Washington Times speculate that press "leaks" in 1995 and 1996 are probably one reason for this warning "failure." In 1995 (and perhaps again in 1996), Indian preparations for a nuke test were detected by US intelligence and our government applied diplomatic pressure on India, successfully, to head off those tests. But both times there were stories in the press that provided details of what clues intelligence had detected and how. Those press stories probably helped India to conceal their preparations this time.

Finally, it seems that an obscure anti-Indian newsletter, Charhdi Kala International, which circulates among the Sikh community in British Columbia, had this in its May 7th edition, four days before the test: "Preparations for an Indian nuclear blast have been confirmed by our sources in India (who so far have never been wrong having millions of pairs of eyes and ears fixed to the ground) who report all kinds of feverish activities in the vicinity of Pokharan..." (NY Times, 5/15). (JMcC)

Indeed, if we had open source analysts reading every publication in every language in the world instantaneously every day, and could instantly the kernels of wheat from the mountains of chaff, perhaps we could approach open source exploitation perfection. Obviously explanations for the annoying but non-critical delay in intelligence reporting in this instance have to do with national collection and analysis priorities and resource allocations as much as with successful Indian technical cover and deception. The Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence was highly indignant on day one, but has since moderated his reproaches. The Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, the Hon. Porter Goss, focused his critique on the lack of HUMINT resources. He has long advocated increased priority and funding for clandestine HUMINT intelligence capabilities, and this instance may be helpful to this cause. (RJ)

ISRAEL ESPIONAGE VS US - The long-running effort to gain the release from prison of Jonathan Pollard, convicted of spying for Israel 13 years ago, took another turn when the state of Israel belatedly recognized Pollard as its agent - something denied up to now. The official statement announced that "Jonathan Pollard acted as an Israeli agent handled by those serving as senior officials of the Bureau for Scientific Relations (LEKEM)." Pollard was made a citizen of Israel two years ago. Relentless pressure will continue. (WT 12 May 98 p A13) (RJ)

CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION IMPACTS INTELLIGENCE - A Human Rights Information Act introduced in the House and Senate, covering Guatemala and Honduras in the first instance, would require the CIA, State Department, Justice Department, the Pentagon and other federal agencies to apply more liberal standards of declassification to Cold War records covering repression of leftist groups and guerillas. The prescribed standards would be the same as those applied to the recent declassification of thousands of pages on the 1963 assassination of President John Kennedy. There is pressure to access documents revealing the close US ties to the local military in these countries in the name of "justice for the victims."

The CIA urged Congress to reject the legislation, stating that it had already gone to "extraordinary lengths" in disclosures and that its ability to recruit foreign spies would be severely damaged. "Sources will be imperiled and the mission of the CIA - to support the Congress and the President - will be disadvantaged." (WP 12 May98 page A7) (RJ)

AFGHANISTAN - The high-stakes pipeline struggle between the US, Russia, Pakistan and Iran, among others in South Asia, is one of the most intriguing anywhere. Unocal heads a consortium of international oil companies to build the 800 mile pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan, a $2 Billion project. The Saudi's have a 15% stake, and Saudi intelligence is deeply involved in supporting the Taleban. Pakistan favors the pipeline and has been arming the Taleban, who control most of Afghanistan.

Iran wants to block the pipeline and keep the US out of the region. It is engaged on a program of destabilizing covert action within Pakistan by stirring up sectarian fighting between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims. Iran is also arming and training the Northern Alliance battling the Taleban. The Russians generally seek to limit US interests in the area. A story deserving of Kipling and the Khyber pass, with intelligence machinations and covert action galore. (WT 11April98 p A7, Timmerman) (RJ)

- CHANGE OF PACE - For a darkly humorous story to break the day, we offer the following:

A few months ago, there was an opening with the CIA for an assassin. These highly classified positions are hard to fill, and there's a lot of testing and background checks involved before you can even be considered for the position.After sending some applicants through the background checks, training and testing, they narrowed the possible choices down to three persons: two men and one woman, but only one position was available. The day came for the final test to see which one would get the extremely secretive job. The CIA men administering the test took one of the men to a large metal door and handed him a gun. "We must know that you will follow your instructions no matter what the circumstances," they explained. "Inside this room, you will find your wife sitting in a chair. Take this gun and kill her." The man got a shocked look on his face and said, "You can't be serious! I could never shoot my own wife!" "Well," says the CIA man, "you're definitely not the right man for this job then."

So they bring the second man to the same door and hand him a gun. "We must know that you will follow instructions no matter what the circumstances," they explained to the second man, "Inside you will find your wife sitting in a chair. Take this gun and kill her." The second man looked a bit shocked, but nevertheless took the gun and went in the room. All was quiet for about five minutes, then the door opened. The man came out of the room with tears in his eyes. "I tried to shoot her, but I just couldn't pull the trigger and shoot my wife. I guess I'm not the right man for the job". No," the CIA man replied, "You just don't have what it takes to be an assassin for the CIA. Take your wife and go home."

Now they turn to the woman for her test. They lead her to the same door to the same room and handed her the same gun. "We must be sure that you will follow instructions no matter what the circumstances. This is your final test. Inside you will find your husband sitting in a chair. Take this gun and kill him." The woman took the gun and opened the door. Before the door even closed all the way, the CIA man heard the gun start firing. One shot after another for 13 shots. Then all hell broke loose in the room. They heard screaming, crashing, banging on the walls. This went on for several minutes, then all went quiet. The door opened slowly, and there stood the woman. She wiped the sweat from her brow and said, "You guys didn't tell me the gun was loaded with blanks! I had to beat him to death with the chair!"

Contributors to SECTION I - J. MacCartney (JMcC), Editor (RJ)

SECTION II - BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS

CIA DRUG ALLEGATIONS BOOK - Ned Dolan writes: On Monday morning, the local DC Pacifica station - wpfw-fm - carried an interview with former San Jose Mercury News reporter Gary Webb on his new book called, like his articles, DARK ALLIANCE. It is to be out this week expanding on his stories about CIA's drug associations and promotion.

Running for 500 pages, he said, it has an introduction by Maxine Waters. He expects reviews in major papers. It was being offered as a premium for the fund raiser being held by the station.

PATTERNS OF GLOBAL TERRORISM, 1997, Department of State Publication 10535, released April 1998. Congress requires an annual report from the State Department on international terrorist incidents. This unclassified report includes overviews of all areas of the world,m including a chronology, background information and a staistical review of significant terrorist incidents in 1997. State also provides Congress with a classified annex to this report describing the extent to which foreign governments are cooperating with the US Government in preventing future terrorist incidents. This publication is a concise and useful reference for quick fact-checking for news organizations and security orces, the legal profession and one of the major targets, the business community. (IB)

SECTION III - BULLETIN BOARD

CHAPTERS

The DICK GRANT Chapter, Missoula, Montana. On 22 May Frank Bessac will speak about his experiences in Tibet and Mongolia. All AFIO members in the area are invited.

The Chapter is also supporting ROTC awards, and is actively and successfully recruiting new AFIO members, using special Chapter inducements. Local area personnel are invited to join the chapter and its programs accomplishing AFIO objectives. Contact Chapter President Charlie Crookshanks tel/fax 406 728 3432.

NEW FLORIDA CHAPTER - Efforts are underway to start a new chapter in the Jacksonville, FL area. Interested personnel please contact <guenusmc@aug.com> or <begonia@coj.net>

MIDWEST Chapter will hold their 8th ANNUAL INTELLIGENCE SEMINAR at Great Lakes Naval Station, Chicago for June 26 /27th.

The AUTUMN 98 function is a working tour of the CANADIAN Military Intelligence and Security School at Camp Borden, Ontario, Canada, set for October 16 & 17th.

RESERVATIONS are being accepted for both summer and fall functions, and ALL AFIO members and guests are invited to attend. For details, directions and reservations, contact Midwest Chapter President Angelo DiLiberti at (847) 931-4184, or Don Clark (630) 834-2032, or email HYPERLINK mail to: < diaboliq@home.com >

QUERIES AND ANNOUNCEMENTS

Any offer or appeal by non-AFIO organizational entities are provided without signifying any endorsement, verification or position by AFIO.

FBI/ OSS/ CIA QUERY - I am looking for anyone who knew Winston Mckinley Scott (1909-1971), FBI(1942-1944), OSS (X-2, London), CIA (first COS in London, COS Mexico City 1956-69). I represent his son Michael Scott who was 15 when his father died. We have been trying to obtain information on Win for the last 5 years.- Contact <zaidms@aolcom>

VIENNA X-2 QUERY - I'm a professor at Penn State seeking information on Edward Philip Barry (E. P. Barry) who was, according to Robin Winks of Yale, the head of X-2 in Vienna at the end of WWII. I believe he stayed in Europe setting up in Zurich during the post war period. If any of your members recollect anything about Mr. Barry, and his role in X-2 and subsequent intelligence activities in SSU/CIA, I would appreciate hearing from them. Contact Alan Block <aab5@psu.edu>

- OSS QUERY - Ms Margaret Chandler Bell would like to hear from anyone knowing her grandfather, who was part of OSS. Name: William Knox Chandler (went by "Knox"). Date of Birth: April 12, 1900, Date of Death: July 12, 1943. She understands that he worked on the "farm" in or around Clinton, Maryland in the '40's. Prior to working for OSS, he was a professor ofEnglish at Vanderbilt in Nashville. It was reported that he died by his own gun, after shooting an OSS stenographer, Rosemary Sidley (from Chicago). They apparently were "having some kind of an affair." Any information is appreciated. Contact Email: <mbell@littler.com>

- RESEARCH INFO NEEDED: James Olmstead is doing historical research concerning aspects of the cold war for film scripts. Several projects concern intelligence operations as well as aspects of the history of some intelligence agencies. He needs first hand information from those who were part of the operations. His work focuses on the period between 1953 and 1964. Topics include: Assassination of JFK; Bay of Pigs; Mongoose; Cuban Missile Crisis; "Black Box" projects connected to the DEW Line or disarmament.; Intelligence operations in the state of Ohio from 1919 to 1969; KKK investigations; Left Wing Student investigations. Contact <Thpa2d@aol.com>

- MOSCOW SPY TOUR - Retired Canadian counterintelligence officer conducted a unique "spy tour of Moscow" in 1997 for 17 historians, writers, journalists and retired intelligence professionals from the US and UK, and is offering the opportunity to participate in a similar tour 6-10 September 1998. Dan Mulvenna is an intelligence historian and bibliophile who has been traveling and working in Russia for the past ten years, developing a broad range of contacts with KGB/SVR/SFB members. His tour consists of site visits, briefings, and receptions and dinners with senior Russian intelligence agency personnel. Participants must make their own flight and hotel arrangements. In addition, the tour costs $1,500, covering briefings and speaking fees, two formal receptions/dinners, and lunch, coach travel in and around Moscow and all admission site fees. Serious inquiries only <djmulv@erols.com>

JOBS / POSITIONS

- LOOKING FOR POSITION - AFIO member with military and CIA background and extensive experience in aviation operations, technical support, marketing and management for both the Government and private industry (e.g. United Technologies Corporation/ Pratt &Whitney; Offshore Helicopter Company), with knowledge of Spanish, is seeking new career opportunities commensurate with experience and background. Willing to relocate worldwide and travel. Inquiries may be directed at the AFIO central office (afio@afio.com).

- LOOKING FOR POSITION - AFIO member, former CIA operations officer and military intelligence officer, with global information-gathering skills, seeks business intelligence management position. Extensive overseas time in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. Comprehensive National Intelligence Community experience. Originated and guided to completion complex information gathering operations in high pressure environments. Proven ability to analyze, plan and exectute effective action.

Thorough knowledge of information technologies. Excellent writing, research/analysis skills. MS in Strategic Intelligence, Spanish language.

If interested email AFIO central Office (afio@afio.com)

AFIO CALENDAR 1998

- AFIO Symposium - US INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES SURVEY - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel, McLean, Virginia 20 May 1998 - 0730 - 1600. Walk-in's accepted. Bring check for $99 (90% tax deductible) to AFIO. (Tel 703 790 0320)

- AFIO Luncheon - 1 June 1998 - 1030 - 1400, Fort Myer, Va. REGISTER NOW! Speakers: Admiral Studeman and Professor Chandler. Send check for $26 (AFIO members and guests) or $29 (others) to AFIO

- AFIO SPECIAL Luncheon - 21 July 1998 - 12:30 - 2:30 at Fort George G. Meade, Maryland, National Cryptologic Museum. Send check for $22 (AFIO members and guests), or $29 (others) to AFIO.

- AFIO Luncheon - 14 September 98, Fort Myer, Va. Speakers to be announced.

- AFIO CONVENTION & SYMPOSIUM - Theme: Espionage and Counter-espionage. Miami Beach Convention Center, 19-21 November 1998.