AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 18

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.

WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage

SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
SECTION III - Member's Missives
SECTION IV - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services

The AFIO Symposium on NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES is getting close - only nine days to go.

Key officials from the intelligence agencies will provide an unequaled review of current priorities. You are encouraged to take advantage of this opportunity, ATTEND, and make a TAX-DEDUCTIBLE donation to AFIO. REGISTER NOW!

As a bonus to attending our symposium, you will be able to visit the Open Source Solutions (OSS) Expo exhibits and get a flavor of a diverse multi-national group of individuals dealing with open source issues, from government to industry to hackers, attending the OSS symposium.

An outstanding group of distinguished speakers will address current NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES, including:

Mr. John Millis, Staff Director, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, US Congress (Congressional intelligence issues and priorities)

Mr. Winston Wiley, Associate Deputy Director for Intelligence (ADDI), CIA (National Intelligence Priorities Overview)

Admiral Stansfield Turner, former Director of Central Intelligence (Keynote presentation - nuclear arms control & reduction)

Mr. Peter Fox, Directorate of Transnational Warfare, DIA (Weapons of mass destruction)

Mr. Scott Harper, Counterintelligence Unit, FBI ( economic espionage and counter espionage)

Mr. Charles Hosier, Intelligence Division, DEA (International counter-narcotics and international financial crime & networks)

Professor Paul Goble, formerly State Dept INR and CIA (Russia - Friend or Foe - An assessment).

Register now! SUPPORT AFIO and bring a guest!

Cost is $99 for AFIO members and guests - ($129 for others).

NOTE: 90% of the registration fee qualifies for TAX DEDUCTIBLE donation to AFIO.

Registration: Mail name, address, tel# and check to AFIO at 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303A, McLean VA, 22101-4533.

Call 703 790 0320 or email AFIO if you need more information.

SECTION I HARVEY'S NUGGETS - On vacation in Wales.

SECTION II JONKERS' BULLETS

BACKGROUND INVESTIGATIONS PROCEDURES CHANGE - The Defense Security Service proposes to substitute phone calls for in-person interviews in background investigations. About three million Federal employees and contractors have security clearances. The DSS carries out more than 250,000 background investigations of Government and contractor personnel a year, and has had tremendous backlogs, numbering in the tens of thousands of cases for five-year updates. The apparent reasons for the shift in procedures are the cutbacks in DSS personnel -- from 4,300 in the mid-1980's to 2,500 in 1998 -- and the complaints from contractors about the backlogs, which were crippling their cost and performance criteria. In addition, the Administration's emphasis on streamling has put pressure on the agency.

Opposition to the new DSS procedures is coming from the JCS, NSA and the Air Force. The DSS faces a Hobson's choice - either get more funding from a shrinking budget, or eliminate face-to-face interviews and thereby accept the additional risks. Today's spies are no longer ideologues - they are often mid-level insiders motivated by financial, family, career or related problems, who seek to cash in on their secret information. Periodic backround investigations are one of the tools to their discovery. Interviews with neighbors might have uncovered Ames earlier. In the area of intelligence and information security, as with many other things, you get what you pay for. (LAT 6 April 98) (RJ)

IRAN TERRORISM - The U.S. State Department and U.S Intelligence organizations differ in their interpretations of Iran's new president Mohammed Khatemi's policy regarding his government's support of global terrorism. State claims that Khatemi is insincere in his public assertions that terrorism is wrong, insinuating that Iran continues to commit terrorist acts.

At the same time, unnamed intelligence officials have said that Khatemi is waiting until he and his moderate followers gain control over key defense and security organizations before taking a strong stand to end his government's support to terrorism. Khatemi was elected by a 70% popular majority, obtaining strong support among younger voters and women. (WP 5 May 98) (IB/RJ)

PALESTINIAN TERRORISM - U.S. policymakers have indicated that Yasser Arafat has been assisted by CIA intelligence information in his efforts to cut back on terrorist activities against Israel, and that this was a factor in Arafat's increasing capabilities and successes in this area. The Likud party in Israel does not appear to be convinced (probably never will be). (WP 5 May 98)( IB/RJ)

SUDAN - The Islamic central Government of Sudan in Khartoum is not favored by the US which accuses the government of giving aid and comfort to terrorists. Recent hints in the public media indicate that US aid and arms support is being given to Eritrean dissidents in the north and Dinka and other tribal rebels in the south, the latter mainly represented by the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA).

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a seven-nation African regional group, has been trying to bring an end to the 15-year long civil war between the Khartoum government and the non-islamic (nominally Christian or animist) southern rebels, including the SPLA. In early May the Khartoum Government and the SPLA agreed to allow self-determination through an internationally supervised vote in the south, but disagreements on boundaries and religion have thus far prevented an agreement on setting a date. The rebels have also continued their military attacks and claim to have captured garrissons while negotiators were meeting.

The situation has been complicated by foreign countries apparently providing aid to both sides in the conflict."The Economist" speculated that the U.S has been funneling military aid to the southern rebels and has been providing political advice. Southern rebels are currently supplied with new weapons and uniforms and seem to have embraced new slogans of political openness etc., whereas earlier they were little more than a ragtag collection of murderous tribal marauders. (The Econ. 28 Mar 98, pp 43,44; WT 7 May p A15; NYT 7 May 98 p A9) (IB/RJ)

COLOMBIA - The 20th Intelligence Brigade of the Colombian army is being investigated for complicity in the recent murders of political activitists and politicians associated with leftist causes, human rights and peace movements, and labor unions. The US State Department in 1997 cited targeted killings, "notably" by the 20th Intelligence Brigade. The general environment in Columbia is characterized by widespread drug trafficking, a 30-year old leftist insurgency, and rampant crime. Over 30,000 people were murdered last year, mostly drug-related, but including over 1,000 political killings.

General Manuel Jose Bonett, the Chief of the Colombian military, denied the accusations and stated that 20th Brigade operations had recently been modernized. "I trust this organization. No member of military intelligence would do it as a member of the institution." It is likely, however, that some individuals within the brigade are associated with an amorphous network of extreme right-wing and paramilitary groups that are unhappy with the Colombian military leadership and efforts to negotiate with the leftist rebels, and that are conducting the killings. (WP 10 May 98, page A19 (Laura Brooks)) (RJ)

SHAKESPEARIAN INTELLIGENCE - For a change of pace, and illustrating the homily that intelligence has played a key role for ages past, Shakespeare's plays contained a number of references to intelligence. For example, in Henry V, Henry's brother, the Duke of Bedford, is discussing a conspiracy that three peers were hatching against their sovereign. Bedford says, in a reference to an earlier version of signals intercepts:

The King hath note of all that they intend

By interception which they dream not of . . .(Act II, scene ii)

Shakespeare also understood one of the most difficult problems facing the intelligence analyst -- overcoming the preconceptions of the consumer. Henry V, amazed by the treason that the incepted communications revealed, says:

"Tis so strange that, though the truth of it stands off as gross as black and white, my eye will scarcely see it (ACT II, scene ii)

Finally, intelligence sometimes fails. The eponym of King John, on hearing that the French army has unexpectedly appeared, wails:

O, where hath our intelligence been drunk? Where hath it slept?

(about which one wag commented that knowing the two classic methods of collecting intelligence, well might he ask!) (ACT IV, scene ii)

(Source - David Kahn, FILS Vol 5, No 4; derived from The Complete Works of William Shakespeare, NY: Garden City Publishing Co, 1940)

SECTION III - BOOKS

- GERMAN AUTHORS EVALUATE INTELLIGENCE - Two books on intelligence recently published in Germany raise some interesting discussion points. "Headquarters Germany" (by Hans Klaus and Andreas Robert, Edition Ost, 381 pp, DM 24.80) raises questions about the value of expensive intelligence bureaucracies with it's thesis that intelligence efforts by the Communists and the CIA in Europe largely canceled each other out. This book, and the one by Udo Ulfkotte entitled "Verschlussache - BND" (Koehler & Amelang, 368 pp, DM 48), raise questions on modern intelligence bureaucracies in terms of scope, analysis relevance, and cover.

In terms of scope, the authors draw attention to the waste or resources involved in the effort of spying on friendly countries. France and the US have frequently exchanged protests on this score in recent years. In a more amusing example, the British electronic eavesdropping services recently advertised on the Internet for speakers of German - a country on which England, at least officially, does not spy. The authors posit that state-sponsored industrial espionage wastes taxpayer money and negatively impacts on friendly relations, and that this excessive scope adds to unwieldy bureaucracies.

A second point raised is the relevance of the end result - should analysis be done in-house or by the users? The authors cite in-house analyses by the central German BND as producing many reports of marginal relevance (e.g. on water resources in the Middle East), and cite Chancellor Herbert Kohl's remark that he learns more from the newspapers than from the BND.

As commentary it may be noted that it is always difficult to put a value on intelligence, but the British are making an effort. Each overseas intelligence post is evaluated within the Secret Intelligence Services on the relation of it's cost to the value of its information -- how much the in-house "customers" in London will "pay" for its information in notional accounting units. Without further details on this scheme it would appear that such a system is also open to numerous mind-games.

The third issue relates to cover - official or non-official. There are many disadvantages to official cover. The Mossad has practiced successfully for many years under non-official cover (e.g. businessmen, accountants etc.). It is more risky, but also more productive, and many intelligence services are said to be moving towards this model. (Based on review in The Economist, March 28th, page 82) (RJ)

SECTION IV - SERVICES & ANNOUNCEMENTS

NOTE: This section is provided as a service to members. Any offer or appeal by non-AFIO organizational entities are provided without signifying any endorsement, verification or position by AFIO.

MIDWEST CHAPTER INVITATION TO ALL MEMBERS

The MIDWEST CHAPTER of AFIO trekked to Omaha, Nebraska and Offutt AFB on April 24th & 25th for briefings by USSTRATCOM J-2 and the 97th Intelligence Squadron. The group also toured and received a briefing at the Air Weather Agency. Members also visited the new Strategic Air Command Museum near Lincoln.

Midwest Chapter is currently completing arrangements for their 8th ANNUAL INTELLIGENCE SEMINAR at Great Lakes Naval Station, Chicago for June 26 /27th.

The AUTUMN 98 function has also been finalized -- - the working tour of the CANADIAN Military Intelligence and Security School at Camp Borden, Ontario, Canada is set for October 16 & 17th.

RESERVATIONS are being accepted for both summer and fall functions, and ALL AFIO members and guests are invited to attend. For details, directions and reservations, contact Midwest Chapter President Angelo DiLiberti at (847) 931-4184, or Don Clark (630) 834-2032, or email HYPERLINK mail to: diaboliq@home.com>.

MILINET DISCUSSION EXCHANGE - Milinet is a service posting military and political articles, including politically incorrect and controversial items, for discussion. Although a number of members belong to the Marine Corps Intelligence Association, MILINET is strictly a private effort by Anthony Milavic (USMC ret) , who describes his service as "money losing, time-consuming, and angst-producing, but sometime joy." The Service is currently provided to some 230 active and retired members of the US Government, academe, the media and non-governmental institutions. Contact <MAJUSMCRET@aol.com>

MEMBER JOB SEARCH

- LOOKING FOR POSITION - AFIO member with military and CIA background and extensive experience in aviation operations, technical support, marketing and management for both the Government and private industry (e.g. United Technologies Corporation/Pratt&Whitney; Offshore Helicopter Company), with knowledge of Spanish, is seeking new career opportunities commensurate with experience and background. Willing to relocate worldwide and travel.

Inquiries may be directed at the AFIO central office (afio@afio.com).

- LOOKING FOR POSITION - AFIO member, former CIA operations officer and military intelligence officer, with global information-gathering skills, seeks business intelligence management position. Extensive overseas time in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. Comprehensive National Intelligence Community experience. Originated and guided to completion complex information gathering operations in high pressure environments. Proven ability to analyze, plan and exectute effective action.

Thorough knowledge of information technologies. Excellent writing, research/analysis skills. MS in Strategic Intelligence, Spanish language.

If interested email AFIO central Office (afio@afio.com)

- OSS QUERY - Ms Margaret Chandler Bell would like to hear from anyone knowing her grandfather, who was part of OSS. Name: William Knox Chandler (went by "Knox"). Date of Birth: April 12, 1900, Date of Death: July 12, 1943. She understands that he worked on the "farm" in or around Clinton, Maryland in the '40's. Prior to working for OSS, he was a professor of English at Vanderbilt in Nashville. It was reported that he died by his own gun, after shooting an OSS stenographer, Rosemary Sidley (from Chicago). They apparently were "having some kind of an affair." Any information is appreciated. Contact Email: <mbell@littler.com>

AFIO CALENDAR 1998

- AFIO Symposium - US INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES SURVEY - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel, McLean, Virginia 20 May 1998 - 0730 - 1600. Send check for $99 (90% tax deductible) to AFIO. (Tel 703 790 0320)

- AFIO Luncheon - 1 June 1998 - 1030 - 1400, Fort Myer, Va. Send check for $26 (AFIO members and guests) or $29 (others) to AFIO

- AFIO SPECIAL Luncheon - 21 July 1998 - 12:30 - 2:30 at Fort George G. Meade, Maryland, National Cryptologic Museum. Send check for $22 (AFIO members and guests), or $29 (others) to AFIO.

- AFIO Luncheon - 14 September 98, fort Myer, Va. Speakers to be announced.

- AFIO CONVENTION & SYMPOSIUM - Theme: Espionage and Counter-espionage. Miami Beach Convention Center, 19-21 November 1998.

GENERAL CALENDAR

- OSS 98, Global Intelligence Forum, takes place 17 - 20 May 98 in the Tysons Corner Marriott hotel in McLean, Virginia. The Conference starts on Sunday with two pre-conference sessions, one providing an overviews of the open source world, the other an understanding of asymetric warfare threats. The Conference will be followed by a half-day classified session at DIA. Visit <www.oss.net> or send email to <oss98@oss.net>.

- JOB FAIR - JTM and Associates presents PCIC 98 (Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community), a "job fair" held at the Tysons Corner Marriott in Virginia on 21 May 98. PCIC will provide one-stop shopping for career development.Registration $35. To register electronically visit <www.pcic.net> with credit card.

NMIA Symposium on Information Warfare - 19 May 98 - Tysons Corner Marriott - $120 for AFIO members. Call 301 840 6642.