AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 14

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.

WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage

SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
SECTION III - Member's Missives
SECTION IV - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services

SECTION I. HARVEY'S NUGGETS

- 1999 BUDGET INCLUDES SMALL SAT PROGRAM FUNDING - The first major funding of the smallsat program is going to purchase a system with a sensor blending synthetic aperture radar (SAR) with moving target indicator (MTI) capabilities. Smallsats with this capability are intended to supplement the USAF E-8 Joint Stars airborne radar by looking well beyond the aircraft's 300 mile range, and for cueing other sensors. Costing a "couple of hundred million dollars," to be split among DARPA, the NRO and the Air Force, the program will be a two-satellite demonstration undertaking.The reporting sources did not address processing and fusion of the new data into existing data streams.

SECTION II JONKERS' BULLETS

- GLOBAL ARMS SALES - Since the end of the Cold War, the US has become dominant in the international arms market, illustrating in hard numbers the shift in power and world influence. US arms sales went up from approximately $9 Billion in 1989 to almost $14 Billion in 1996, a 50% increase. During the same time, Russian arms sales dropped from $22 Billion in 1989 to $3 Billion in 1996, a decline of 87%.

Thus while the Soviets exceeded the US in arms sales in 1989 by 22 to 9, the US now exceeds Russia by 14 to 3.

During the same period, Chinese arms deliveries dropped from about $3 Billion in 1989 to $600 Million in 1996, an 80% drop. France and Britain maintained their sales totals during the period, while Germany and Italy both decreased their sales of arms. (AF Mag Feb98, p 17) (RJ)

- SUDAN - A recent newspaper photo depicted a starving mother and child in the Southern Sudan, reminiscent of the photo that provided the impetus for our Somalia adventure. Civil war has been raging in the Southern Sudan since 1983, and has cost an estimated one million lives thus far. Currently the continuing turmoil is causing a threat of severe malnutrition and starvation for the 4 million inhabitants - mostly Dinka tribesmen - of the region. The military government in Khartoum refuses to grant autonomy to the South, and it's troops occupy the garrison towns and cities. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army, deeply divided among themselves, have been unable to win a decisive victory, but the struggle has caused great dislocations among the population. The rebel leader, John Garang, has agreed to a cease fire on humanitrian grounds, and international agencies are appealing for money for food and seed for future crops. This is partly a religious war - Muslim dominated Government versus Christianized tribesmen - and a tribal war, deep in the heart of Africa, in an area with few roads, no electricity, no communications and little or no atributes of modern societies.The US geopolitical and intelligence stakes are low, and the outcome will be determined by the normal politics of humanitarianism, unless warped by photos of starving children. (WT 9 Ap 98 p A15) (RJ)

- INTELLIGENCE WHISTLE BLOWERS - the Senate voted 93 - 1 in March '98 to create further havoc in the US Intelligence Community by allowing employees to run to Congressmen with their complaints without informing their supervisors. CIA Inspector General Frederick R. Hitz, who will retire at the end of April, informally proposed that the measure should be modified to require that the complainant should first report the case to the IG's office. The IG should then have 30 to 60 days to complete an investigation and report the findings to the Agency as well as to the whistleblower and the Oversight Committee. He advocated solving the problem through regulation rather than legislation. Hitz said his idea was not blessed by the executive branch, but was made by him because he had "only thirty days left."

The issue arose because of Congressional sensitivities were affronted when the CIA removed the security clearances of a State Department employee who had passed classified information on a Guatemalan military officer, allegedly with CIA ties, allegedly involved in the murder of an American citizen, to a Congressional committee. The House Intelligence Committee has reservations about the Senate approach. There is hope yet that reason will prevail. (Wpost 31 Mar 98 p A3) (RJ)

- COLOMBIA - The Colombian army is not doing well in combat with the Southern Bloc of the Revolutionary Armed forces of Colombia (FARC). In a recent battle in the southern province of Caquetta one of their units took a severe mauling and lost numerous dead and prisoners. The guerillas are making bolder moves, such as blocking roads only 50 miles from Bogota. The internal conflict has cost as much as $12 Billion and caused some 40,000 deaths from 1990 onward. The generals have been accused of sending troops into the jungle who were untrained, with little back-up, and on the basis of poor intelligence, against an underestimated enemy. The army's tactical problems, however, are not the whole story of what is going on in Colombia. The country suffers not only from FARC guerillas, it also has para-military forces engaged in various fights and raids. On balance, the recent press coverage about the Colombia's army problems appear to presage additional arms and intelligence support from the US. (Economist 14 Mar p 36, ( RJ)

SECTION III - MEMBER's MISSIVES

- RUSSIAN COMMERCIAL SATELLITE IMAGES - The film from a Russian imaging satellite launched 17 February and recovered at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on 3 April, will be processed, digitized and available for commercial sale for prices ranging from $8.95 to $24.95 each, depending on the size of the area covered. Resolution is two-meters or better, enough to pick out a house within a neighborhood. Before ordering, customers can preview coverage on the so-called "terraserver," at <www.terraserver.com> a joint project involving, aside from the commercial arm of the Russian Space Agency, Microsoft, Kodak, DEC and others. It is allegedly the highest resolution film made available commercially thus far. The first mission covered the southeastern United States. Three more missions are planned for coast-to-coast coverage of the US this year. (Reuters 5 April 98, contributed by R. Forno)

SECTION IV - BOOKS, SERVICES & ANNOUNCEMENTS

1. BOOKS & REFERENCES

- BAY OF PIGS (continued) - Theodore Draper (NYR article 14 August 97) questioned the CIA's continued viability (agency in search of a mission), based on the end of the Soviet threat and the academic incompatibility between democracy and intelligence activities. As part of a "letter to the editor" response, Professor Bradford Westerfield (Yale) not only provided an articulate rejoinder, but also offered some further interesting aspects of the Bay of Pigs operation.

He notes that a close reading of Richard Bissell's memoir and other articles indicate strongly that Castro was supposed to be dead by the time of the landing, and that this was the reason that Bissell was willing to accept the increased exposure (decrease of cover) of the operation - thereby crippling its prospects for success. " I infer that Bissell became buoyant enough about this progress toward assassination that he saw it as offsetting the risks of President Kennedy's "anti-noisiness" cutbacks (indeed Kennedy's own insistence on he cutbacks may well have been buoyed by the same closely held secret knowledge) . This came exactly at the same time (mid-March) that the CIA's poison was transferred to the Cuban who was to administer it to Castro." When the assassination did not succeed, the plan carried on by its own momentum. Slowly the pieces of puzzle may be falling into place. (NYR, 23 Oct 97, page 76) (RJ)

- CHURCHIL AND THE SECRET SERVICE, by David Stafford, 386 pages, Overlook Press $35.00. Stafford documents the history and the results of Churchill's fascination with intelligence operations, and shows how this made a crucial contribution to victory in World War II. Mr. Stafford's splendid book is a valuable addition to intelligence history. (WT 4 Feb p. A13) (RJ)

- HITLER: THE PATHOLOGY OF EVIL, " by George Victor. For history buffs still contemplating Adolph Hitler's incomprehensible and self-destructive blunders in political and military decisionmaking. A brilliant study in leadership. A must-read for intelligence analysts. ISBN 1-57488-132-9, Brassey's 1998

- BETWEEN SERB AND ALBANIAN: A History of Kosovo, by Miranda Vickers, Columbia Univ. Press, 352 pages, $47.50. A timely book for adding a modicum of depth to understanding the latest "crise du jour."

2. SERVICES TO MEMBERS

- AFIO OFFERS VIDEOS TO CHAPTERS AND ACADEMICS - Chapters and University Professors may borrow AFIO-produced videos free except for the cost of postage and handling ($5.00). The first video is by DAVID MURPHY, containing his presentation to AFIO discussing his recent book, The Battle of Berlin; the second video contains a talk by retired KGB Major General KALUGIN covering some of his experiences in the Soviet KGB counterintelligence directorate.

- AFIO offers new service, THE AFIO Z-GRAM, a DAILY quick-scan, useful overview of news from the World press gleaned from the internet. Particularly valuable for researchers and corporate individuals using the internet data bases as a resource. Exceptionally well done and widely praised. Subscription for DAILY service (5 times week) only $98 year, of which $40 is tax-deductible donation. Mail check made out to AFIO and provide name/address/email to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303a, McLean Va 22101-4533.

- CIA WEBSITE FOR KIDS - The homepage features codes and ominous warnings and a link to enter the "Kids Secret Zone" where there are history, geography and other quizzes. The site is at: <http://www.odci.gov/cia/ciakids/safe.html>

3. SERVICES BY MEMBERS

- John Macartney, who ten years ago wrote AFIO Monograph #7 entitled "Intelligence: What It Is and How to Use It, " has produced an updated version. About 40 pages long, it is used as a basic "primer" in class readings at the three Service academies as well as the JFK School ot Harvard, Syracuse U and American U. It is available to Chapters and Professors for $10.00.

- Michael Ryan successfully employs game-playing study aids in his intelligence-related classes. You may contact him at <the condor@sisna.com>

4. APPEAL TO MEMBERS - PEARL HARBOR JUSTICE

- This year, the USS Pearl Harbor will be commissioned in San Diego on May 30th (Memorial Day). And on September 2nd, the USS Missouri will be permanently berthed at Pearl Harbor to commemorate the end of WW II hostilities.

But there is on piece of unfinished business -- the vindication of the two US commanders in Hawaii at the time of the Japanese attack, Admiral H. Kimmel and Lieutenant General Walter Short,USA. Both were made scapegoats, blamed for the success of the Japanese attack, and retired at reduced rank. History has exonerated them. That judgment needs to be confirmed. There is a need to restore their honor for the sake of family, legacies and descendants, and for the common honor, by giving them justice by posthumous advancement on the military's retired lists. You can help by contacting your senators or representatives NOW to persuade the Secretary of Defense to get this injustice reversed before the ceremonies in May and September.

5. POSITIONS WANTED or AVAILABLE

See AFIO Homepage <www.afio.com> for previous weeks' items.

6. AFIO CHAPTER AND MEMBER NEWS

- The AFIO Suncoast Chapter reports that they have invited college students to their chapter meetings with good success. An excellent way to advance AFIO educational objectives! Kudos to Bob Savallesh and his chapter.

- Bob Bannerman, former CIA Security Chief, has had a "miraculous " recovery from a bout of dementia brought on by allergic reaction to medicines, and would like to hear from old friends. <CNMSRBCH@aol.com>

- Walter Pforzheimer, sometimes known as Chief Sitting Bull, is reported recovering well from his stroke and in good spirits.

7. IN MEMORIAM - information provided on members who have left us -.

- Frank C. Smith, formerly with NSA (1948 -1979) and longtime AFIO member, died 21 March 1998

8. AFIO CALENDAR

- AFIO Symposium - US Intelligence Priorities Survey - 20 May 1998 - 0730

Distinguished speakers from CIA, FBI, DIA, Congressional Staff

Tysons Corner Marriott, 0730 - 1600.

Send check for $99 (AFIO members and guests) or $129 (others) to AFIO

- AFIO Luncheon - 1 June 1998 - 1030 - 1400

Admiral Wm Studeman, former DDCI, and Professor James Chandler.

Send check for $26 (AFIO members and guests) or $29 (others) to AFIO

- AFIO Luncheon - 14 September 98. Speakers to be announced.

- AFIO Convention and Symposium, Miami Beach Convention Center, 19-21 November 1998. Themes: Counterintelligence; Economic Espionage and Counter Espionage. Mark your calendars and make plans to attend!

NOTE: The AFIO Convention is hosted at the Convention Center by The Corporate Intelligence Conference of the Americas, a conference endorsed by AFIO and supported by Fred Rustmann of the local AFIO chapter. AFIO has mailed out a circular on the Corporate Conference to its members. The Corporate Conference will address business intelligence (What is it? How do you get it? and How do you protect it?) and will be run independently from the AFIO Convention with a separate registration and different fees.

The AFIO Convention will be in a separate facility within the Convention Center with a separate program. Arrangements for hotel rooms at favorable rates are being made. The Hospitality Room will be in the hotel.