AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 9

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to provide added value to AFIO membership.

AFIO WINs contain excerpts of published "facts" and commentaries derived from public media, with perspectives provided by RADM (ret) Don Harvey and by the WIN Editor, Roy Jonkers, each of whom has over fifty years of association with US intelligence.

Harvey's media intelligence capsules have been published for years in the Periscope and the American Intelligence Journal. Past and future capsules by both contributors will be indexed and maintained in a database by AFIO in the near future.

The Editor, Roy Jonkers, has overall control and responsibility for WIN contents.
WIN re-transmission is not permitted except with concurrence of the WIN Editor.
WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage located at www.afio.com.

SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
SECTION III - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services

SECTION I. HARVEY's NUGGETS

PRESS REVIEW OF DECLASSIFIED NIE's - An AP article covered declassified National Intelligence Estimates released by the DCI in late 1997, noting the clarity of warning of aggression. The nine-day advance warning alert of Soviet preparations for "multi-battalion combat operations" in Afghanistan was cited, a warning based in part on overhead imagery of convoys of fuel trucks along narrow roads leading to the Afghan border. The article also referenced AFIO member Cynthia Grabo's AFIO monograph, writing that "the warning process is plagued by uncertainty from beginning to end." It also cited the constant problem of convincing policymakers of the validity of warning judgments, referencing the warning of a possible Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, which was discounted when Arab allies said that Sadam Hussein was bluffing. "A warning judgment which is not believed by responsible policy officials is as ineffective as no warning at all."

ILLEGAL EXPORTER TO CHINA ARRESTED - A Long Island resident alien, George Cheng, a scrap dealer, was charged with attempting to illegally export military equipment to China in 1997. The sale of military equipment to China is prohibited. Customs agents found navigational systems for the F-117, parts of Navy electronic warfare jamming devices, and hundreds of spare parts for M-16 and M-41 tanks in crates packed in crates with scrap material destined for Shanghai. Ironically, some of the equipment had been inadvertently sold to Cheng by DOD two years earlier. The article did not identify the source that enabled Customs to search the proper pile of scrap.

SECTION II. JONKERS' BULLETS

IRAQI ESPIONAGE ALLEGATION - Press reports assert that a US Pentagon source provided information to Iraqi intelligence concerning the planned US attack, and that the FBI is investigating the matter. Not surprisingly, there has been no official comment.
If there was espionage, it certainly appears to have been redundant. During the past month the press has published a plethora of reports on the planned bombing campaign and its targets, based on leaks reflecting Washington political infighting and policy disagreements, or possibly also, plants and disinformation. Some of these speculations have been reflected in previous WIN reports.
Iraq's espionage profile in the US is very low. Iraq's presence in the United States is pretty much restricted to the United Nations delegation, which is "blanketed" by FBI operatives. Iraq's intelligence activities during the past few years have concentrated principally on circumventing the UN sanctions and embargo, generally through European and Persian Gulf conduits. The headquarters of Iraq's intelligence agency ( known as Mukhbarath) was targeted by a US cruise missile in June 1993, after a finding that the agency was behind an effort to assassinate former President Bush. (WT 3 March 98 page A1)

ENCRYPTION WARS - NSA and FBI are spearheading the effort to maintain some visibility into domestic and exported commercial encryption systems for national security purposes and the pursuit of criminals. The issue of privacy is critical to further commercial success of the Net. Many feel threatened by outsider's - including Government - intrusion on personal, financial and medical privacy records and communications.
The issue impacts the entire telecommunications industry. The Department of Justice will request that the Federal Communications Commission set new standards for all telephone networks so that local, state and federal law enforcement agencies have the wiretapping capabilities for successful surveilance and prosecution of criminals.
As for exports of encryption systems, as of today, products that use keys up to 56 bits long are exportable. Industry would like to see no export controls at all. Last year the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence removed relaxed-export-controls provisions from a bill favored by industry, and substituted provisions stipulating that any and all US encryption products must provide "keys" to national authorities.
This set off a massive lobbying campaign by industry, supported by privacy advocates of all kinds. Senators John McCain and Robert Kerrey are now crafting a compromise that bans domestic controls within the US, and allows export of encryption products similar to those available overseas from foreign vendors. The encryption wars pit proponents of free speech, free trade, personal privacy and maximizing profits against Government needs of combating crime, terrorism and other national security (Business Wk 9 and 16 Mar 98 page 126; Wpost 27 Feb page A13).

SOVIET DEFECTOR DIES - Arkady Shevchenko, who defected to the US in April 1978, died in obscurity in Bethesda, Maryland on 28 February. Shevchenko was a spy for the US for 30 months before his defection. He did not provide earthshaking information on secret war plans or weapons, but furnished valuable insights into the thinking of people at the highest level of the Soviet Government. Shevchenko was an ideologically motivated asset. His actions were not based on greed, but conviction. He was considered a top CIA trophy during the 1970's. He became an American citizen, published a book "Breaking With Moscow (Knopf 1985), and earned money on the lecture circuit. (NYT 11 Mar page A29)

KOREAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCY LEADERSHIP CHANGES - Incoming President Kim Dae-jung, a former dissident who was depicted as a leftwing sympathizer by the KCIA under the previous regime, appointed key aides to top security positions and took steps to carry out a purge of the KCIA as well as a name change. Messrs Shin Kuhn and Ra Jong-yil were named as vice-directors of the "Agency for National Security Planning" (ANSP), formerly known as the KCIA, and senior agency officials were being questioned about plots and smears against the now-prime minister.
The government also said that many laws restricting exchanges with North Korea would be scrapped. Unification Minister Kang In-duk stated on television that he would take an aggressive approach toward easing relations with North Korea. Talks between North and South Korea, the US and China will resume on 16 March toward a permanent peace agreement.
Incidentally, and of related interrest, North Korea has turned the Pueblo, the captured US Navy intelligence ship, into a tourist attraction. North Korea's seizure of the Pueblo 30 years ago led to a high state of alert at the time. The crew was eventually released in December 1968 but the ship stayed in North Korea, and the incident as exploited by Pyongyang as a great blow to the prestige of the US. Which it was. (WT 9 Mar 98 page A16; Inside China Today, 26 Jan 98)

MI-6 AND THE MEN IN PINK - For the first time MI6 is said to have sent a gay couple abroad on an espionage mission. The new "closet and dagger" operation is seen as part of MI 6's growing recognition that the world is changing. The gay spies cover was blown in January, when Sir Gerald Warner, former deputy head of MI 6, disclosed it, later stating he thought he was giving a private talk. The government did not comment.
On a more serious note, the UK Government "data protection registrar" has demanded that MI5, MI6 and GCHQ register all their secret files on British citizens and allow public access, a serious challenge to the traditional secrecy of Britain's intelligence services. The agencies also may have to disclose personal data held on any of their 9,000 personnel. UK data protection laws provide that any individual is entitled to see information held on them in computer data bases. The Police and National Criminal Intelligence Service are adhering to the law. The Home Secretary is wrestling with the question of application to the intelligence agencies. (UK The Times, Feb 1, 2; ref

SECTION III . AFIO EVENTS & ANNOUNCEMENTS

• REVIEW OF INTELLIGENCE & COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ISSUES:
• Russia/China Estimate
• Weapons of Mass Destruction Non-Proliferation Intelligence,
• Nuclear Arms Control
• Counter Intelligence issues
• International Crime, Terrorism and Narcotics Networks,
• Economic espionage and counter-espionage.
• Congressional Issues
• Executive Agency (DCI, FBI etc) speakers.

TO ASSURE A SEAT, send in your name, tel. number and check to AFIO.
LIMIT one hundred (100) seats: $99 for AFIO members, $129 for others.

BOOKS

- Highly recommended is a new book about Air Force Special Operations during the Cold War by Col Michael Haas, USAF (ret), entitled "Apollo's Warriors." Published Air University Press, 1997, and for sale GPO Stock# 008-070-00726-6 (GPO tel 202 512 1800)

- Looking for a new career? Read Mark Merritt's "Alternative Careers in Secret Operations: Your Guide to a New Identity, Life and Career." Geared to people who seek opportunities utilizing their intelligence-related skills. Recommended by Admiral William Studeman, USN (ret), for Deputy Director of Central Intelligence.

- Need to search the Web for an investigation? Get David Vine's excellent "Investigator's Internet Resource Guide." Will save time and assist your inquiry. Order from

- Like your information in the form of a suspense novel? Read about military attache's, written by someone who has been there: Major General (ret)"Chuck" Scanlon's "The Attaches," ( IM Press Inc, PO Box 377, Fairfax Station VA 22039-0377) - before the story is sold to Hollywood.

- Recommended for student researchers is a publication by the Department of Defense Security Institute (Richmond, Va 23297-5901) entitled: "Recent Espionage Cases: Summaries and Sources" (July 1997).

SERVICES:

- Washington attorney frequently represents intelligence officers on issues of national security, privacy, FOI act and federal employment problems. Contact ZaidMS@aol.com.
-Jim Ferrier, C-K & Associates, Milwaukee WI, specializes in examining questioned (altered, forged etc) documents. Contact stoney@execpc.com.
- Albano Ponte specializes in arranging US dollar loans in developing countries (minimum request $5 M) . Email to aponte@bitwise.net.
- David Bedenbaugh is a financial advisor who focuses on retirement planning. Call 301 897 5999 or dxbedenbaugh@leggmason.com.

JOBS OFFERED:

- Corporation is looking for a former Artillery Battalion Cmdr (7plus years experience, AC&GS College grad), to train Direct Support and Reinforcing commanders and staffs during LTP rotations. Qualified individuals contact afio@afio.com.

JOBS WANTED

- Former Joint Staff Officer, graduate degrees in International Relations & National Security Affairs, graduate Russian linguist school, Russia and Middle East analyst, program manager and national intelligence officer, looking for position involving international marketing, strategic planning or program management. Contact afio@afio.com.
- Former commander of multinational peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance in Northern Iraq seeks position in international relief and development. Government experience in intelligence, post-government in business development with DARPA and IC community. Contact jmzhwms@aol.com.
- Senior Engineer, BSEE, coinventor of state-of-the-art biometrics security system based on real-time recognition of facial images, Tempest systems development, EMC/EMI, frequency management engineering, seeks new challenges. For reference, contact jonkers@betac.com
- Goal-oriented project manager, polished briefer, former speechwriter for DCI Bill Casey, looking for post-retirement position in June 1998. Contact glamborn@erols.com.
- Former Army special operations officer (Colonel), engineering degrees, excellent analyst and writer, several years experience with DARPA advanced projects, seeks association with interesting program. Contact jonkers@betac.com for address.